Rumor: Nylander like Matthews unextended. Nothing to see here.

[Rob Brown]

Here is Tampa's results since 2003-04 season

Some other key notes:
1. Kucherov's 1st NHL season 2013-2014
2. Hedman's 1st NHL season 2009-2010
3. Point's 1st NHL season 2016-2017
4. Vasy's 1st NHL season 2015-2016

Too bad they only had 1 round win in their first 7 years together and had 10+ AAV cap hits on the roster eh?


People need to use "CONTEXT" when talking about other teams in comparison to teh Leafs.


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Not really sure what you're saying here, but my point was merely that there are plenty of really good teams that took a long time to finally win the Cup.

 

[Fogelhund]

Ya Vegas took forever to win the cup.
They won in basically less time then this core has been together.

And the many examples that took years, even over a decade….

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

William Nylander's $10M asking price far exceeds the contracts of six of his peer comparables​

The William Nylander conundrum is going to rage on until he either signs a new contract or the Toronto Maple Leafs decide his demands are too rich for their blood and trade him away.

Rumours have him asking for $10M+, while the Leafs are far apart with their range being closer to what Timo Meier signed (8 years and a cap hit of $8.8 million). There is definitely room to wiggle around as Nylander could and should command upwards of $9 million, but if he doesn't budge and is insistent on $9.5M to more than $10M, then the Leafs might not have a choice.

There are some really good comparable players to Nylander around the NHL, production-wise, with the most important nugget here being that none of them own an AAV that exceeds $8 million. Of course the market changes on a yearly basis and whenever one player signs a deal, the next player gets slightly more, however there's a large discrepancy between what his comparables are making and what Nylander's asking for. The production is broken down by games played, goals scored and total points. Check out these comparisons.

Looking back at the past 3 seasons:

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Connor still has 3 years left on a 7-year deal he signed back in 2019 with a cap hit of $7.142 million. Guentzel has 1 year left on a 5-year deal he signed back in 2018 with a cap hit of $6 million.

DeBrincat just signed a 4-year deal worth $7.875 million per season, Fiala is one year into a 7-year deal with a cap hit of $7.875 million, Buchnevich is 2 years into a 4-year deal with a cap hit of $5.8 million, and Reinhart is in the final year of a 3-year deal that has a cap hit of $6.5 million.

Nylander is coming into the final year of his 6-year deal that he signed back in 2018 with a cap hit of $6.9662 million. He is coming off two successive career-seasons, with the most recent being 40 goals and 87 points in 2022-23.

How many of those guys are RW though? The problem is like RHD, there are not a lot of greatly productive RW's out there.

Rantanen/Kucherov/Marner/Pasta are the only truly more prductive RW's and then a few guys that switch between LW and RW that are left handed.

It is harder to find one fo those guys than a guy that can play 1C imo.

 

[Racer88]

And the many examples that took years, even over a decade….

Yup and also many examples that never got there.

 

[tuckerintensity]

10 AAV is an overpayment for Nylander as far as Leafs are concerned. If he can get 10 AAV from another franchise; Leafs should be working a sign and trade scenario right about now.

9.6 in next year's cap and 10.2 in projected cap of the year after is quite literally market value. Not made up, literally look at all the comparables and value him against the average of what they got.

 

[notDatsyuk]

The other side of sensationalism is realism..

There are 15 players in the NHL right now with a cap hit exceeding $10 million, but the thing that might cause the most ruckus is the fact that Auston Matthews is in line for a new deal in the same summer and then Mitch Marner will follow in the next year.

Nylander is currently looking at > $10 putting himself in that club of 15 which includes 3 of his own teammates AM, MM and JT.

Leafs would have 4 players in the top 16 highest AAV players in the NHL is beyond sensationalism, and outright lunacy, considering the team has one 1 single playoff round with these players.

When you compare his actual stats to Bansky list that doesn't scream NHL's elite group that Willy finds himself among.

The fact that we have three players making over $10M (two of whom shouldn't have been), really doesn't affect the value of another player.

It may affect what, or whether, we can pay him, as it clearly has affected the rest of the team, but it doesn't change his value.

If McDavid was available, would our having three players making over $10M affect how much he was worth? No, just whether or not we could afford him.

 

[PROUD PAPA]

So a bunch of people guessing? If he thinks he is on Marner's or Matthews' level, it's funny and he can leave.

This whole thread is getting worked up over nothing at this point.

Well when the thread is started simply because “Friedman said something” I’ve learned to keep my expectations low.

 

[Notsince67]

The fact that we have three players making over $10M (two of whom shouldn't have been), really doesn't affect the value of another player.

It may affect what, or whether, we can pay him, as it clearly has affected the rest of the team, but it doesn't change his value.

If McDavid was available, would our having three players making over $10M affect how much he was worth? No, just whether or not we could afford him.

You are arguing against yourself now?

 

[PromisedLand]

Not really sure what you're saying here, but my point was merely that there are plenty of really good teams that took a long time to finally win the Cup.

Not the way Leafs have sucked. Only one team you can think of is Caps if at all

You can find plenty of examples in the NHL where teams didn’t have to wait eons to win at least 2 rounds too.

 

[PromisedLand]

9.6 in next year's cap and 10.2 in projected cap of the year after is quite literally market value. Not made up, literally look at all the comparables and value him against the average of what they got.

I don’t think that’s the right way for g doing “comparables” comparison.

Willy can seek that ridiculous AAV on another team. Treliving should be working a trade here. No more Dubas era BS. It is about Toronto Maple Leafs not handful of players that don’t put the team in the back but want to squeeze out every penny

 

[Fogelhund]

I don’t think that’s the right way for g doing “comparables” comparison.

Willy can seek that ridiculous AAV on another team. Treliving should be working a trade here. No more Dubas era BS. It is about Toronto Maple Leafs not handful of players that don’t put the team in the back but want to squeeze out every penny

“I don’t like the answer the comparables give, so I’m going invent my own system and pretend that reality doesn’t exist”

Sorry, every NHL executive, and stats person disagrees with your fantasy ideas

 

[aingefan]

Willy’s got an allure in that he’s peaking at the time of signing and hasn’t consistently had top line minutes.
Pretty sure he gets 10+ on the open market, and that he provides good value many of those years, especially if the team earmarks him for first line minutes.
The more important point for me is that I sure wish we had something else to talk about than contracts.

 

[ACC1224]

Willy’s got an allure in that he’s peaking at the time of signing and hasn’t consistently had top line minutes.
Pretty sure he gets 10+ on the open market, and that he provides good value many of those years, especially if the team earmarks him for first line minutes.
The more important point for me is that I sure wish we had something else to talk about than contracts.

Amen to that!

 

[notDatsyuk]

You are arguing against yourself now?

Why would you say that? All I'm arguing against is the idea that because we have three players making over $10M, Nylander can't be worth $9 or $10.

 

[LeafSteel]

Willy’s got an allure in that he’s peaking at the time of signing and hasn’t consistently had top line minutes.
Pretty sure he gets 10+ on the open market, and that he provides good value many of those years, especially if the team earmarks him for first line minutes.
The more important point for me is that I sure wish we had something else to talk about than contracts.

I will drink to this!

Cheers!

 

[mydnyte]

Not the way Leafs have sucked. Only one team you can think of is Caps if at all

You can find plenty of examples in the NHL where teams didn’t have to wait eons to win at least 2 rounds too.

it really depends on who you need to get through doesnt it ...remember the Raptors coulnd never get past Lebron and lost to them every playoffs, TB was our Lebron.
this core made the playoffs 2 years sooner than expected, and were the bottom seed and kept pushing to 7 games, that is also an accomplishment.
now they need to take it to another level

 

[Mess]

If Marner was on his 8 year $8.5 mil ask deal right now then Willy would not be asking for $10.5 mil.

Once a bad GM overpays one player on the team, the problem continues to get compounded, via a team internal salary cap and how the players use their own teammates and salary against the team.

While Willy at his current deal is only the player of the core 4 on a team value deal at present based on his production, Over the course of these contracts past 4 years Willy has scored more regular season goals 17 and more playoff goals then Marner yet he makes +$4 mil per season more.

John Tavares coming off an 82 games 37 goal 47 assists 84 point season heading into UFA and some young GM gave him $11 mil AAV and Willy is coming off an 82 game 40 goal 47 assists 87 point season and says now you want to buy my UFA years at what rate, when you paid JT $11 mil 5 years ago (at a lower cap) and you won't pay your own drafted and developed player now accordingly.

A good GM would put a stop to this trend, even though Nylander is the least of salary cap problems of all 4 of them.

 

[mydnyte]

Las Vegas says hi....56 years & counting!

It Toronto got a 2nd team as an expansion, they would have as good a chance to win the Cup in the next 5 years as this current team.
1st you get to cherry pick every players up and coming high potential players, then you get tons of cap space that you can sign all the top UFA's on the market.
You would be guaranteed to have as good a goalie tandem (or better) and likely a better defensive core, with balanced forwards, and then add the top UFA's for the next few years, with Drias and McDavid coming up and all the $$ in the world to throw at them.

if Vegas wasnt an expansion team they wouldnt have $$ to have signed Stone, and Pietro and then the assets & $$ to get and pay for Eichel

 

[geo25]

It Toronto got a 2nd team as an expansion, they would have as good a chance to win the Cup in the next 5 years as this current team.
1st you get to cherry pick every players up and coming high potential players, then you get tons of cap space that you can sign all the top UFA's on the market.
You would be guaranteed to have as good a goalie tandem (or better) and likely a better defensive core, with balanced forwards, and then add the top UFA's for the next few years, with Drias and McDavid coming up and all the $$ in the world to throw at them.

if Vegas wasnt an expansion team they wouldnt have $$ to have signed Stone, and Pietro and then the assets & $$ to get and pay for Eichel

Agree totally. What I was implying is that we can alter our team significantly and at least try something comparable. Being hamstrung by having 4 players using 50% of our cap hasn't worked since day one. We need to make radical changes.

 

[Rob Brown]

Not the way Leafs have sucked. Only one team you can think of is Caps if at all

You can find plenty of examples in the NHL where teams didn’t have to wait eons to win at least 2 rounds too.

I wasn't saying they were exactly comparable in terms of their path to the Cup. My point was merely that a lot of teams with really good, promising cores take a long time to win.

 

[Mess]

It Toronto got a 2nd team as an expansion, they would have as good a chance to win the Cup in the next 5 years as this current team.
1st you get to cherry pick every players up and coming high potential players, then you get tons of cap space that you can sign all the top UFA's on the market.
You would be guaranteed to have as good a goalie tandem (or better) and likely a better defensive core, with balanced forwards, and then add the top UFA's for the next few years, with Drias and McDavid coming up and all the $$ in the world to throw at them.

This amplifies the level of Cap Hell the Leafs find themselves in with 4 forwards eating up 1/2 a teams Cap and how it impacts Cup competitiveness that a new expansion team with no players and a clear slate would be in a better position to compete for the Cup in short order.

Leafs internal over-payments are crippling the Leafs chances for success as you don't have enough resources to build a deep and competitive team around them.

3 of those 4 current players are coming up for renewal and want raises ... When will this madness end?

 

[ACC1224]

If Marner was on his 8 year $8.5 mil ask deal right now then Willy would not be asking for $10.5 mil.

Once a bad GM overpays one player on the team, the problem continues to get compounded, via a team internal salary cap and how the players use their own teammates and salary against the team.

While Willy at his current deal is only the player of the core 4 on a team value deal at present based on his production, Over the course of these contracts past 4 years Willy has scored more regular season goals 17 and more playoff goals then Marner yet he makes $4 mil per season.

John Tavares coming off an 82 games 37 goal 47 assists 84 point season heading into UFA and some young GM gave him $11 mil AAV and Willy is coming off an 82 game 40 goal 47 assists 87 point season and says no you want to buy my UFA years at what rate, when you paid JT $11 mil 5 years ago (at a lower cap) and you won't pay your own drafted and developed player now accordingly.

A good GM would put a stop to this trend, even though Nylander is the least of salary cap problems of all 4 of them.

That's really where this mess became irreversible.
I'd say that's where the mess began but that happened the day Shanahan promoted Dubas.

 

[mydnyte]

This amplifies the level of Cap Hell the Leafs find themselves in with 4 forwards eating up 1/2 a teams Cap and how it impacts Cup competitiveness that a new expansion team with no players and a clear slate would be in a better position to compete for the Cup in short order.

Leafs internal over-payments are crippling the Leafs chances for success as you don't have enough resources to build a deep and competitive team around them.

3 of those 4 current players are coming up for renewal and want raises ... When will this madness end?

when the new CBA trashes the hard cap

 

[Mess]

when the new CBA trashes the hard cap

We know that ain't happening

So the Leafs spent themselves into Cap Hell through previous poor management decisions and now they have to get themselves back out.

All things considered (including NMC limitations) you re-sign Matthews but attempt to hold him in check, you trade Nylander to build up the team depth as this years moves.. Then you play hardball with Marner keeping his salary close to current with perhaps only a small raise and you cut JT current contract in 1/2 on a short term extension.

When the dust settles you have Matthews at ~$13 mil, Marner @ $11.5 mil, JT and $5.5 mil and Nylander gone in trade. Leafs end up with only 2 double digit players as opposed to paying Willy $10 mil and having 4 of the top 16 highest paid skaters in the league.

 

[PromisedLand]

I wasn't saying they were exactly comparable in terms of their path to the Cup. My point was merely that a lot of teams with really good, promising cores take a long time to win.

But there has to be some gradual progress. The so called "core4" gets shut down in the playoffs. There is 7 years worth of evidence.

There is faith and then there is blind faith. I would say that given how the core 4 has performed blind faith in them while giving them ridiculous AAV while diminishing our ability to bolster the roster with quality depth is not a good strategy.

it really depends on who you need to get through doesnt it ...remember the Raptors coulnd never get past Lebron and lost to them every playoffs, TB was our Lebron.
this core made the playoffs 2 years sooner than expected, and were the bottom seed and kept pushing to 7 games, that is also an accomplishment.
now they need to take it to another level

its been 7 years of us waiting for the "core" to take it to another level. The only another level i see with this core is their next level contract negotiations not on ice impact.

We need quality depth to counter the ineptitude of the so called core4 to put the team on their back. The quality depth is only possible if we don't overpay the core pieces.