Not good enough - no playoffs again!

[L'Aveuglette]

After these next two home games vs Vancouver and then Calgary, we play 13 of the next 18 games on the road.
We play 9 in a row on the road starting December 17th to January 7th.
Our road record this year is 3-6-0.
Needless to say this next 20 game period will be a challenging part of their schedule.
Will they be able to float? Or sink?

We won't need another 20 games to know where this team is heading. If at the 25 game mark they are something like 10-14-1, we're cooked. There's no coming back from that kind of record. They have to start winning now.

 

[Loach]

We won't need another 20 games to know where this team is heading. If at the 25 game mark they are something like 10-14-1, we're cooked. There's no coming back from that kind of record. They have to start winning now.

They need to win 4 in a row starting now. If they don't the season is over.

 

[L'Aveuglette]

They need to win 4 in a row starting now. If they don't the season is over.

I'd say they need to win 4 out of the next 6 at the very least to stay afloat.

 

[BankStreetParade]

After these next two home games vs Vancouver and then Calgary, we play 13 of the next 18 games on the road.
We play 9 in a row on the road starting December 17th to January 7th.
Our road record this year is 3-6-0.
Needless to say this next 20 game period will be a challenging part of their schedule.
Will they be able to float? Or sink?

When you're not a good team, every part of your schedule looks challenging.

 

[Big Muddy]

I'd say they need to win 4 out of the next 6 at the very least to stay afloat.

Yes, most likely. The next three games (Canucks, Flames, Sharks) are all game that we need to win and the games aren’t against an insurmountable opponent. That would be a place to “start”. The Sharks game is Nov. 27th (U.S. Thanksgiving = Nov. 28).

Note - Edited.

 

[Relapsing]

I'd say they need to win 4 out of the next 6 at the very least to stay afloat.

They need to be at around .660 for the rest of the season

 

[Karterthadon]

I thought I’d so some “rough” math.

I think we need to win around 39 more games to get into the playoffs. That would be a .620 pts percentage in the remaining games. It would also help if the wins against teams we are currently needing to leap frog wouldn’t have any loser points either. This is based on 95 points are needed to make the playoffs (based on a google search).

That's the killer, there's currently EIGHT teams ahead of us for the last playoff spot. It's quite simply impossible for the math to break for us with eight frigging teams ahead of us. This teams needs wins and a lot of them, period.

34% chance of making playoffs and 88 point projected for the year they are exactly what they are and have been for the last 5 years very bad team .if you think luck and playing better then there record is reason for where they are your delusional .they have a multi year resume of same record and endless excuses .

That's where I'm at as well, I think this core is what it is at this point. a mediocre team that will be in the hunt for the final wildcard spot year in year out.

 

[Loach]

I'd say they need to win 4 out of the next 6 at the very least to stay afloat.

Here's the kicker. If we have a high pick this year, odds are good there are changes and we have a high pick next year too. So...do we forfeit this years pick and hope for Mckenna next year? This is where we are at.

 

[lunadio]

If they don't win 6 of the next 10 games there odds of making playoffs drop to only 21% chance of making playoffs that's the reality of the whole they dig every year and we all know how these guys fair in a battle to try and come from behind lmao

 

[Karterthadon]

Here's the kicker. If we have a high pick this year, odds are good there are changes and we have a high pick next year too. So...do we forfeit this years pick and hope for Mckenna next year? This is where we are at.

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. If we get a top 5 pick this year, we can't pass on it hoping for miracles next year.

 

[Loach]

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. If we get a top 5 pick this year, we can't pass on it hoping for miracles next year.

What if it's 10th?

 

[Senovision]

Poor goaltending starts the ball rolling.

Then take a look at the forward situation which is weird........
Amadio looks like a 4th liner that is being slotted as a top 9 player.
Gaudette a 4th line player is our second leading goal scorer so he should be a top 6 forward.

Perron, Pinto, Giroux, Greig not producing.

Sanderson has been struggling 1 even strength point all year.
For comparison Owen Power in Buffalo has 13 even strength points this year.
Sanderson has 3 points in his last 13 games.

That's 7 of our players underperforming at the same time. And one of them is your starting goalie.
You can't have that and win games.

 

[Karterthadon]

What if it's 10th?

Top 5 for me would be a no-no. Anything else, sure, sacrifice the pick.

 

[Loach]

Yes, most likely. The next three games (Canucks, Flames, Sharks) are all game that we should win. That would be a place to “start”. The Sharks game is Nov. 27th (U.S. Thanksgiving = Nov. 28).

We should beat the Canucks and Flames? You don't believe that, do you?

 

[lunadio]

My prediction is we finish with 84 to 86 points and pick ninth overall

Finish 6th in atlantic

 

[Alex1234]

We should beat the Canucks and Flames? You don't believe that, do you?

Were not in a position to take anybody lightly


Except we do it all the time lol

 

[Big Muddy]

I thought I’d so some “rough” math.

I think we need to win around 39 more games to get into the playoffs. That would be a .620 pts percentage in the remaining games. It would also help if the wins against teams we are currently needing to leap frog wouldn’t have any loser points either. This is based on 95 points are needed to make the playoffs (based on a google search).

They need to be at around .660 for the rest of the season

I built a speadsheet, and what I came up is in the post above. It was a quick & dirty effort. FWIW, I’ll copy it below hoping it makes sense to others which is difficult I suppose as you can’t see the math in the cells.

 

[Senovision]

Calgary is 11-6-3 so I would not give us a win against them.
Vancouver is well rested but missing Boeser and JT Miller. That is a team that we should be able to beat.

 

[Big Muddy]

We should beat the Canucks and Flames? You don't believe that, do you?

There is no easy games for sure. I guess there was a better way of explaining it.

"Should win" within the context of both we need to win and those teams are not at the very top of the standings. Having said that, Canucks and Flames definitely have had a better season than us, and their record does indeed show this.

 

[Loach]

There is no easy games for sure. I guess there was a better way of explaining it.

"Should win" within the context of both we need to win and those teams are not at the very top of the standings. Having said that, Canucks and Flames definitely have had a better season than us, and their record is indeed show this.

Calgary is 11-6-3
Vancouver is 9-6-3

The difference between Vegas and Calgary is 1 overtime loss.

 

[lunadio]

620 win percentage over a 63 game span is a tall order for this team or any team for that matter it is rarely accomplished in the nhl these days

 

[Big Muddy]

Calgary is 11-6-3
Vancouver is 9-6-3

The difference between Vegas and Calgary is 1 overtime loss.

Yes, true. Like I said, there were better ways of explaining what I meant. I guess I was thinking that Calgary’s winning pace would eventually decline. I did try to convey the idea that we needed to start winning right away but that part needed to be better emphasized.

 

[Senovision]

My prediction is we finish with 84 to 86 points and pick ninth overall

Finish 6th in atlantic

My prediction was 88 points after the 4th game of this season versus New Jersey which I posted on this site. I think I also said we are 2 or 3 players away from becoming a playoff roster team that contends in the playoffs

 

[lunadio]

Only 6teams in the nhl last year held over a .600 winning percentage over the year and 2 of them were just at .600 Its just not done to often

I'm not a downer just a realist I do love my team but they give me heart aches and I can't bare to watch a game only highlights and box scores for me lately

 

[Finnen]

As the the team slips back into the familiar November pattern, it’s clear that this team is just not good enough to win consistently. Nothing in the cupboards to be excited about either. Staios has his work cut out for himself.

The train is going worse for the Sharks.