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Value of: Noah Dobson's Next Contract

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Does Noah Dobson's AAV exceed 10M

  • Yes

    Votes: 31 46.3%

  • No

    Votes: 36 53.7%
  • Total voters
    67
impaaaaaact

impaaaaaact

Registered User
Jan 14, 2014
2,812
2,477
Brooklyn, NY
Let's assume Dobson doesn't have a huge fall off or get injured and lands around or above the 70 point mark again this season. Does he push for 8 figures? For some context, the only active defensemen to have multiple 70 point seasons before signing a contract are Erik Karlsson (14.11% of cap) and Brent Burns (10.67% of cap). Hughes, Fox and Carlson have all done it too but had already signed a contract beforehand - same for Morrisey who basically did it last year too.

Isles beat writers are consistently projecting his next contact at 8x8 or 8.25x8 - do you think that's reasonable?
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A 25 year old RFA RD with size, significant offense and strong defensive metrics playing very tough competition?

I'd be surprised if he didn't get an eight figure AAV on an 8 year deal even if he gets injured or doesn't hit 70 points.
 
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I can see him being the new highest paid defenceman in the nhl. Edit: if he puts up another excellent year.

Ill say he gets 12x8
 
If he hits 70 points again and his deal is 8 years, and it doesn’t exceed $10M…. Lou has something on him/his agent
 
Gonna say he gets 8x8-8.5 if he matches last years numbers.

I do think his playoffs will determine how much more he gets from there.
 
impaaaaaact said:
Let's assume Dobson doesn't have a huge fall off or get injured and lands around or above the 70 point mark again this season. Does he push for 8 figures? For some context, the only active defensemen to have multiple 70 point seasons before signing a contract are Erik Karlsson (14.11% of cap) and Brent Burns (10.67% of cap). Hughes, Fox and Carlson have all done it too but had already signed a contract beforehand - same for Morrisey who basically did it last year too.

Isles beat writers are consistently projecting his next contact at 8x8 or 8.25x8 - do you think that's reasonable?
Click to expand...
He'll get 9,5 x 8.
 
Lou is pretty damn good with contracts but Dobson will probably have the Isles by the balls if he has another repeat of 23-24.
 
Captain Mountain said:
A 25 year old RFA RD with size, significant offense and strong defensive metrics playing very tough competition?

I'd be surprised if he didn't get an eight figure AAV on an 8 year deal even if he gets injured or doesn't hit 70 points.
Click to expand...
Strong defensive metrics? Dobson's metrics are actually pretty bad. He does face ridiculously hard comp.
 
Bjornar Moxnes said:
Strong defensive metrics? Dobson's metrics are actually pretty bad. He does face ridiculously hard comp.
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The couple of models I've seen that properly adjust for competition grade his defensive game fairly highly, he's above average on the PK and his defensive event metrics are generally good too (except for entry prevention). He's far from a perfect defensive player, but he's not bad.
 
Dobson will probably wait for Bouchard to sign who will reset the market.

I'd be surprised if it's in the 8s. The floor will be high 9s.
 
PAZ said:
Dobson will probably wait for Bouchard to sign who will reset the market.

I'd be surprised if it's in the 8s. The floor will be high 9s.
Click to expand...

That could backfire badly if Bouch takes a team friendly deal. Bouch reportedly asked for 11, and that means the deal is probably closer to 10, which would make it pretty hard to argue Dobson getting in the 9s.
 
The Nuge said:
That could backfire badly if Bouch takes a team friendly deal. Bouch reportedly asked for 11, and that means the deal is probably closer to 10, which would make it pretty hard to argue Dobson getting in the 9s.
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If a player takes a team-friendly deal that's a pretty easy argument and they'll just use a different comparable. Plus at the end of the day Dobson is close to UFA, he'll get paid regardless. Bouchard getting $11 mil would just make it a lot more likely Dobson gets in the 10s.
 
If Dobson gets another 70-point season, 8x8 seems reasonable, but I think his AAV should start at 9M at least, considering market pressure and other upcoming deals like Bouchard's, which could push his value higher.

That said, it's all about Dobson maintaining form and how Lou negotiates.Lou's great at deals, but Dobson will have leverage this time around😊.
 
SO My guess is if he repeats last season he gets at least 9.5M closing in on 10. If he drops say to 60 points that might be more 9M range.

As Somebody else pointed out above Bouchard will probably set the standard for Young Defensemen
 
Admittedly, I don’t watch Dobson but I always felt he is a reasonable comparison to Bouchard. One is better offensively the other defensively , but both in the second top tier of young Dmen behind Hughes, Makar, etc. I feel if Makar was up for contract this year he would be around 12-14 million long term. Hence guys like Bouch and Dobson around 9-10 million.
 
Bjornar Moxnes said:
Strong defensive metrics? Dobson's metrics are actually pretty bad. He does face ridiculously hard comp.
Click to expand...

Tonight was a display of his work defensively. Responsible for the tying goal and ot winner.

Incredible offensively, dumb as dirt defensively.

He's going to clip at least 9 but I am going to hate the contract on the Island or elsewhere.
 
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