Prospect Info: NHL Entry Draft Discussion Thread - First Round Tuesday October 6th

[Morgs]

More important, how many NHL games have they played ??

We can't assume 2015 was fully Dubas as we don't know if he or Hunter made the picks.

Plus we're talking about 2 seasons removed from the 2018 draft. You normally can't fully evaluate a draft for 4-5 years. What we do know is that the players for the most part are trending well:

2018:
1st - Sandin
2nd - Durzi
3rd - SDA
4th - Stotts
4th - Hollowell
5th - Kral
6th - Holmberg
7th - Bouthillier
7th - Kizimov

2019:
2nd - Robertson
3rd - Kokkonen
4th - Abramov
4th - Abruzzese
5th - Koster
7th - Loponen

Sandin, Robertson, Abramov, and Abruzzese all seem like unbelievable value at their respective picks. 4 of our 5 best prospects.

SDA, Hollowell, Kral, Holmberg, Kokkonen, and Loponen are all still legit prospects that were all picked in the 3rd round or later. Seem like good value, but we'll see how they end up.

The only guys that are no longer prospects are Bouthillier and maybe Stotts.

We need more information about Kizimov and Koster before we can judge them.

Durzi obviously helped us get Muzzin, that's a win in my book even though I wanted other people.

Click to read more...

 

[kb]

Dubas draft history:

Of the 3 drafts 2015 & 2018 & 2019 (skaters only) of the 24 players selected 23 were <= 6 feet tall.

There were 23 skaters drafted.

6'0" or above.

2015
Mitch Marner - 6'0"
Travis Dermott - 6'0"
Andrew Nielsen - 6'4"
Jesper Lindgren - 6'1"
Stephen Desrocher - 6'4"
Nikita Korostelev - 6'1"

2018
Sean Durzi - 6'0"
Riley Stotts - 6'0"
Filip Kral - 6'1"
Semyon Kizimov - 6'0"

2019
Mikhail Abramov - 6'0"

So 11 out of 23 skaters were 6' or taller. Pretty sad the lengths you are going to make your posts look foolish.

 

[aingefan]

More important, how many NHL games have they played ??

The 2015 draft yielded Marner, Dermott, and Timashov.
Pretty fine result, Dermott’s GP reduced due to injury. And then he draft responsibilities were shared, but mostly Hunters domain.
Bit early to expect much from 18 and 19.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Dubas draft history:

Of the 3 drafts 2015 & 2018 & 2019 (skaters only) of the 24 players selected 23 were <= 6 feet tall.

And yet they are also far more successful than pretty much every "larger" player Hunter picked.

The last larger player that has turned into anything from our system was Engvall, and he was picked before Hunter got here. The rest either busted or are trending in that direction.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Jeremie Poirier is an interesting draft option if we trade down from 15. He might be the most skilled offensive defenceman in the draft, he can really handle the puck. Led all draft eligible Dmen in goals. The reason he’s not ranked higher is he’s bad defensively, it’s a lot easier to teach a prospect defence than it is offence.

I can see a team drafting him high based on the offensive potential, but he is not a guy the Leafs should be touching.

 

[mydnyte]

There were 23 skaters drafted.

6'0" or above.

2015
Mitch Marner - 6'0"
Travis Dermott - 6'0"
Andrew Nielsen - 6'4"
Jesper Lindgren - 6'1"
Stephen Desrocher - 6'4"
Nikita Korostelev - 6'1"

2018
Sean Durzi - 6'0"
Riley Stotts - 6'0"
Filip Kral - 6'1"
Semyon Kizimov - 6'0"

2019
Mikhail Abramov - 6'0"

So 11 out of 23 skaters were 6' or taller. Pretty sad the lengths you are going to make your posts look foolish.

Marner and Dermott are not 6' tall ...Marner is barely 6' tall in skates

 

[hockeywiz542]

Maple Leafs face critical decision in how to use 2020 first-round pick - Sportsnet.ca

OK, so which second-tier prospects should be available for the Maple Leafs at 15? And which need will Toronto’s scouts be focusing on?

“There’s players at every position — forward, defence and goalie — that are of interest to us at that spot,” said Dubas, not tipping his hand.

On the blue line, a pair of WHL defencemen, Braden Schneider and Kaiden Guhle, shoot to the top of the list. Schneider, 19, is a six-foot-two, 202-pound right shot who erupted for 42 points in his third full(ish) campaign for the Brandon Wheat Kings factory. Guhle, 18, is a lefty who also hit the 40-point mark for the Prince Albert Raiders.

If Dubas wants to improve his pools of centres, 42-goal man Seth Jarvis (Portland Winterhawks) and 80-point guy Connor Zary (Kamloops Blazers) could still be on the board halfway through Round 1.

All four would be conservative choices.

More intriguing (i.e. risky) is Round 1 wildcard Hendrix Lapierre out of Gatineau, limited to just 19 games for the Chicoutimi Sagueneens in 2019-20 due to injury.

Lapierre’s agent contacted all NHL teams with an extensive medical history to explain that the centreman didn’t miss time due to concussions but more because of a cervical injury.

“More so than most teams, the Leafs have the resources for extensive background check into the medical reports,” Cosentino says. “And if they can corroborate that the issue is not concussion-related and they feel safe enough with how he’s played since coming back, then I do believe he is the Leafs’ range.”

 

[Northernguy10]

Maple Leafs face critical decision in how to use 2020 first-round pick - Sportsnet.ca

OK, so which second-tier prospects should be available for the Maple Leafs at 15? And which need will Toronto’s scouts be focusing on?

“There’s players at every position — forward, defence and goalie — that are of interest to us at that spot,” said Dubas, not tipping his hand.

On the blue line, a pair of WHL defencemen, Braden Schneider and Kaiden Guhle, shoot to the top of the list. Schneider, 19, is a six-foot-two, 202-pound right shot who erupted for 42 points in his third full(ish) campaign for the Brandon Wheat Kings factory. Guhle, 18, is a lefty who also hit the 40-point mark for the Prince Albert Raiders.

If Dubas wants to improve his pools of centres, 42-goal man Seth Jarvis (Portland Winterhawks) and 80-point guy Connor Zary (Kamloops Blazers) could still be on the board halfway through Round 1.

All four would be conservative choices.

More intriguing (i.e. risky) is Round 1 wildcard Hendrix Lapierre out of Gatineau, limited to just 19 games for the Chicoutimi Sagueneens in 2019-20 due to injury.

Lapierre’s agent contacted all NHL teams with an extensive medical history to explain that the centreman didn’t miss time due to concussions but more because of a cervical injury.

“More so than most teams, the Leafs have the resources for extensive background check into the medical reports,” Cosentino says. “And if they can corroborate that the issue is not concussion-related and they feel safe enough with how he’s played since coming back, then I do believe he is the Leafs’ range.”

Lapierre sounds like the guy to go with "if" he's deemed healthy by the Leafs medical staff of course.. Possibly other teams will pass on him if he's seen as risky...Going into the 2019-20 season he was thought of as a top 6-ish pick apparently...Roll that dice.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Lapierre sounds like the guy to go with "if" he's deemed healthy by the Leafs medical staff of course.. Possibly other teams will pass on him if he's seen as risky...Going into the 2019-20 season he was thought of as a top 6-ish pick apparently...Roll that dice.

He does have issues scoring. Playmaking-wise, he may be one of the most talented players in the draft. Skating, IQ, etc. is all pretty good. However, he has a weak shot and struggles to score even on QMJHL goalies (which are the weakest quality-wise in the CHL).

If he could score, he would probably be in the top 5 even with the injuries. However numerous major injuries plus a weak shot drops him a lot.

 

[Mickey Marner]

I've stood next to Marner in skates and he was barely over my 6' tall
Dermott used to be listed between 5'10- 5'11". ...havent seen many people grow in their 20's same with Nylander

I always use draft combine measurements. 90% of players get rounded up, sometimes comically.

2015 draft combine results. NHL Combine 2015: Full Results, Measurements, Highlights and Top ProspectsNHL Combine 2015: Full Results, Measurements, Highlights and Top Prospects

 

[nuck]

Lapierre sounds like the guy to go with "if" he's deemed healthy by the Leafs medical staff of course.. Possibly other teams will pass on him if he's seen as risky...Going into the 2019-20 season he was thought of as a top 6-ish pick apparently...Roll that dice.

A nice article on Lapierre

Hendrix Lapierre: 2020 NHL Draft Prospect Profile; The Most Unpredictable Prospect

 

[Fogelhund]

Lapierre, with his focus on being a playmaker, and having problems scoring at even lower levels, gives me Bracco vibes. I don't think either translate to the NHL that well.

 

[Coaches Coroner]

it's funny to me that in a year that may have been more difficult to scout in recent history, that everyone on message boards still have extremely confident opinions on so many players.

 

[nuck]

Lapierre, with his focus on being a playmaker, and having problems scoring at even lower levels, gives me Bracco vibes. I don't think either translate to the NHL that well.

I'm not sure how valid the can't score label is. He had 13 goals in 48 games as a 16 year old and 3g in four playoff games. Compared to some other players at 16 Marchand had 9 in 61, Coutourier 8 in 58 and Giroux had 13 g in 48 games but but was still in tier 2. Marner was 13g 46a in 64g at 16. Lapierre's scoring in Midget was fine (made him #1 midget draft pick) and his 3g at the Hlinka was the same as Byfield and one more than Jarvis. Q stats for preseason he is 3g and 7 points in 3 games.

We probably can't judge him by a 19-20 season destroyed by injuries so we are relying on reports from those who have seen him when healthy. The comments I have seen are that he needs to gain strength and should work on his shot but that isn't really the same as having a problem scoring. Not saying you and Sea may not be right, but the lost season really muddies the water. Not really interested at 15 but if his health checks out I would take him with a trade down. Scouts say a very good two way forward and if he translates as a center and stays healthy he could be a steal.

6' and 180 so maybe he is too big to interest Dubas.

 

[Morgs]

it's funny to me that in a year that may have been more difficult to scout in recent history, that everyone on message boards still have extremely confident opinions on so many players.

Most players we have stats on for multiple years. Highlight videos. Access to games these players have played in are more available than ever. One shortened season/no playoffs doesn't really impact it that much.

We're even getting to see the non-NA players play live games in what would normally be their D+1 to make people feel even more dumb for leaving Raymond out of their top-5.

 

[Northernguy10]

He does have issues scoring. Playmaking-wise, he may be one of the most talented players in the draft. Skating, IQ, etc. is all pretty good. However, he has a weak shot and struggles to score even on QMJHL goalies (which are the weakest quality-wise in the CHL).

If he could score, he would probably be in the top 5 even with the injuries. However numerous major injuries plus a weak shot drops him a lot.

In my many years of coaching, shooting and passing were the easiest skills to improve and apparently he's working on his shot...Reading an article about him , he is well aware of his shortcomings and seems like a very driven young man which is never a bad thing...I don't mind a combination of skill, attitude and drive in a 15th overall pick...according to the article the 2nd and 3rd concussions weren't actually concussions at all but a spinal problem from the first concussion that has since been rectified. I assume the Leafs have a top line medical staff that can confirm or deny the medical reports. Either way it should be an interesting draft. There should be a reasonably good player available with our second pick also.

 

[KMNRB]

I'm not sure how valid the can't score label is. He had 13 goals in 48 games as a 16 year old and 3g in four playoff games. Compared to some other players at 16 Marchand had 9 in 61, Coutourier 8 in 58 and Giroux had 13 g in 48 games but but was still in tier 2. Marner was 13g 46a in 64g at 16. Lapierre's scoring in Midget was fine (made him #1 midget draft pick) and his 3g at the Hlinka was the same as Byfield and one more than Jarvis. Q stats for preseason he is 3g and 7 points in 3 games.

We probably can't judge him by a 19-20 season destroyed by injuries so we are relying on reports from those who have seen him when healthy. The comments I have seen are that he needs to gain strength and should work on his shot but that isn't really the same as having a problem scoring. Not saying you and Sea may not be right, but the lost season really muddies the water. Not really interested at 15 but if his health checks out I would take him with a trade down. Scouts say a very good two way forward and if he translates as a center and stays healthy he could be a steal.

6' and 180 so maybe he is too big to interest Dubas.

He seems to be playing well in preseason games.

Here's a highlight-reel assist in the last minute of the 2nd period to tie the game last week.

 

[Northernguy10]

it's funny to me that in a year that may have been more difficult to scout in recent history, that everyone on message boards still have extremely confident opinions on so many players.

Ah, It's all in fun...Kind of a hobby, for me anyway...Been doing it for over 40 years...

 

[Northernguy10]

I'm not sure how valid the can't score label is. He had 13 goals in 48 games as a 16 year old and 3g in four playoff games. Compared to some other players at 16 Marchand had 9 in 61, Coutourier 8 in 58 and Giroux had 13 g in 48 games but but was still in tier 2. Marner was 13g 46a in 64g at 16. Lapierre's scoring in Midget was fine (made him #1 midget draft pick) and his 3g at the Hlinka was the same as Byfield and one more than Jarvis. Q stats for preseason he is 3g and 7 points in 3 games.

We probably can't judge him by a 19-20 season destroyed by injuries so we are relying on reports from those who have seen him when healthy. The comments I have seen are that he needs to gain strength and should work on his shot but that isn't really the same as having a problem scoring. Not saying you and Sea may not be right, but the lost season really muddies the water. Not really interested at 15 but if his health checks out I would take him with a trade down. Scouts say a very good two way forward and if he translates as a center and stays healthy he could be a steal.

6' and 180 so maybe he is too big to interest Dubas.

If he's deemed healthy by the Leafs medical staff I'm taking him at 15 in a heart beat.

 

[Drew311]

Zary or Lapierre. This organization desperately needs centers beyond Matthews and Tavares.

 

[Northernguy10]

Zary or Lapierre. This organization desperately needs centers beyond Matthews and Tavares.

Yep.. If Lapierre is gone or deemed too risky health wise then I like Zary...If they are both not available I don't mind Schneider.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

I didn't realize Mavrick Bourque was on pace for 98 pts. Why isnt he ranked higher with those numbers?

 

[Byron Bitz]

I didn't realize Mavrick Bourque was on pace for 98 pts. Why isnt he ranked higher with those numbers?

For me he didn’t really pass the eye test

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I didn't realize Mavrick Bourque was on pace for 98 pts. Why isnt he ranked higher with those numbers?

he's fairly small and his skating is good but not great for his size. I like him though, and wouldn't be opposed to getting him if the Leafs trade down

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I didn't realize Mavrick Bourque was on pace for 98 pts. Why isnt he ranked higher with those numbers?

Production-specifically, QMJHL is easier to score than OHL and QMJHL.

He's easily a top 10 forward out of the CHL (7-9 range), but that still puts him in the late teens/early 20's at the very best in this draft overall (when you account for non-CHL players and CHL defensemen like Drysdale, Guhle and Schneider).