NHL Draft first-round picks by nationality

[Finpower]

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[Finpower]

Do you guys think the other big 4 will ever catch up Canada in terms of first-round picks?

 

[Fatass]

Do you guys think the other big 4 will ever catch up Canada in terms of first-round picks?

I like your discussion idea. But when you use the qualifier “ever” in your question how can anyone answer no? Why not provide a defined time from for this to occur, like in the next 20 years?

20 years = no
50 years = maybe.
Ever = yes (no other choice)

 

[Rabid Ranger]

No as in never. The only country that would have a feasible chance due to population/affinity for the sport/access is the U.S. and for the most part it's plateaued.

 

[Finpower]

I like your discussion idea. But when you use the qualifier “ever” in your question how can anyone answer no? Why not provide a defined time from for this to occur, like in the next 20 years?

20 years = no
50 years = maybe.
Ever = yes (no other choice)

It was a poor choice of words from my part I admit. I just created this chart for fun because I thought it would be interesting to see how the Big five nations compare in terms of first-round picks. I choose to only include the first round because thats usually where the top players who could repesent their countries on the top level come from.

 

[violaswallet]

Do you guys think the other big 4 will ever catch up Canada in terms of first-round picks?

I mean why focus on first round picks? I just double checked from 2005 and Canadian draft picks are down from 47% of all selections to 33%. US draft picks are constant at say 25%. The increasing share are European. Interestingly the ratio of registered hockey players in Canada and US line up pretty well this ratio in 2015.

Also for poop and giggle: the proportion of top 15 picks by US and Canada from 2018-2020: 28.8% each. From 2000-2002: 17.7% US and 35.5% Canada. I wonder what the data looks like and what trends exist across the distribution!

 

[violaswallet]

Does anyone know of a database with nationality, draft status and home town? I want to dig into the data; my hypothesis is that we’ve seen a rise of top end American talent, a constant supply of Canadian talent, and cycles in European talent. Much of it could be explained by lagged hockey enrollment/investment. It would be nice to get efficiency data (average number of picks per hockey player in a country: my guess is that Finland kills it)

 

[garbageteam]

Elite prospects will have your answers, if not Quanthockey or hockeydb. Just need to do a bit of the data compilation to fit what you're looking for yourself.

 

[Dominance]

No as in never. The only country that would have a feasible chance due to population/affinity for the sport/access is the U.S. and for the most part it's plateaued.

I don’t know about that. Although I take solace in the two Canadian kids (hopefully) at the top of the draft, the US 2022 class is ridiculously strong in quality and depth. I’ve also heard some good things about the Americans eligible for the next year, and we can’t really look much beyond that. It could be a plateau, or it could be a plateau leading to a renewed ascendancy.

 

[Ciao]

Hockey is an expensive sport with a limited talent base owing to the exorbitant time and expense of youth-level player development. For these reasons, it is on the decline in Canada and on the rise in the US, which as a richer, larger nation is bound to eventually overtake Canada in player development.

In my lay (casual and unqualified) opinion, it is a favoured outlet for rich white American boys and their affluent families, who no longer gravitate to other sports like baseball, football and basketball in the same proportions as they once did.

 

[Atas2000]

Do you guys think the other big 4 will ever catch up Canada in terms of first-round picks?

No. It's the bias and Canada producing prospects en masse while quality wisevthey aren't ahead.

 

[Czechboy]

I think the city I live in has more rinks then the entire Czech Republic. So no... No one is catching Canada in quantity of first rounders in the next decade.

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

Canada showed having all players drafted in 1st round in WJC doesn't guarantee anything. It's how players develop after draft that matters.

 

[VVP]

There is a drastic fall of kids joining hockey in Canada. That will lead to a fall of elite players out of Canada. Canada will just fall to 25% level and one of the countries at one point will just inevitable have a year or two that will have a huge number of first rounders. Bound to happen.

 

[Dirtyf1ghter]

Hockey is an expensive sport with a limited talent base owing to the exorbitant time and expense of youth-level player development. For these reasons, it is on the decline in Canada and on the rise in the US, which as a richer, larger nation is bound to eventually overtake Canada in player development.

In my lay (casual and unqualified) opinion, it is a favoured outlet for rich white American boys and their affluent families, who no longer gravitate to other sports like baseball, football and basketball in the same proportions as they once did.

Most of the players are mostly from hockey families. They start playing at the age of 4. I don't think it's a question of being rich or not. I am not but then not at all and that did not prevent me from playing hockey. Other friends too. Sport is becoming communitarized. Non-black Americans are increasingly excluded from the NBA and NFL.

To practice a sport is above all to meet up with friends. Many would feel uncomfortable being the only white person on an American football team. A child also dreams of being a professional. The NBA or NFL message to a white kid is clear: kid, your genetics are inferior, you don't stand a chance. So white kids are going to try their luck in a sport that will give them hope.

I am French and this is what I saw for Soccer. I was still part of this generation who dreamed of being a footballer when the French footballers were called Jean-Pierre Papin, Eric Cantona or David Ginola. Today very few young white high school students play football in France. They play Rugby more. The United States benefits from this influx of non-black populations who are increasingly interested in hockey in part because they are not or no longer represented in the NBA or NFL. Finally, there are the traditional European countries which understood that hockey was the best way to shine on the world stage. On the Canadian side, Canadians are also increasingly interested in other sports.

Hockey is still the # 1 sport, but it is no longer the only publicized sport. Black populations prefer sports where they are the majority, Asians seem to really cling to hockey culture. In any case, it is wrong to say that Canadian hockey is declining. On the contrary, the next generation is exceptional. Bedard, Wright, Savoie will succeed McDavid, MacKinnon. There are fewer and fewer of them because hockey is becoming international and diversifying. There are more and more countries producing more and more NHL players. It is a process that began 40 years ago and has intensified in recent years.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Most of the players are mostly from hockey families. They start playing at the age of 4. I don't think it's a question of being rich or not. I am not but then not at all and that did not prevent me from playing hockey. Other friends too. Sport is becoming communitarized. Non-black Americans are increasingly excluded from the NBA and NFL.

To practice a sport is above all to meet up with friends. Many would feel uncomfortable being the only white person on an American football team. A child also dreams of being a professional. The NBA or NFL message to a white kid is clear: kid, your genetics are inferior, you don't stand a chance. So white kids are going to try their luck in a sport that will give them hope.

I am French and this is what I saw for Soccer. I was still part of this generation who dreamed of being a footballer when the French footballers were called Jean-Pierre Papin, Eric Cantona or David Ginola. Today very few young white high school students play football in France. They play Rugby more. The United States benefits from this influx of non-black populations who are increasingly interested in hockey in part because they are not or no longer represented in the NBA or NFL. Finally, there are the traditional European countries which understood that hockey was the best way to shine on the world stage. On the Canadian side, Canadians are also increasingly interested in other sports.

Hockey is still the # 1 sport, but it is no longer the only publicized sport. Black populations prefer sports where they are the majority, Asians seem to really cling to hockey culture. In any case, it is wrong to say that Canadian hockey is declining. On the contrary, the next generation is exceptional. Bedard, Wright, Savoie will succeed McDavid, MacKinnon. There are fewer and fewer of them because hockey is becoming international and diversifying. There are more and more countries producing more and more NHL players. It is a process that began 40 years ago and has intensified in recent years.

While I'm not sure I agree with all of your points (is it really an exclusion issue?) the decline of the white, American NBA player is an interesting and somewhat controversial topic.

 

[themelkman]

There is a drastic fall of kids joining hockey in Canada. That will lead to a fall of elite players out of Canada. Canada will just fall to 25% level and one of the countries at one point will just inevitable have a year or two that will have a huge number of first rounders. Bound to happen.

Better hope thats not true. If Canada loses that much interest the sport will start dying quickly

 

[Uncle Rotter]

There is a drastic fall of kids joining hockey in Canada. That will lead to a fall of elite players out of Canada. Canada will just fall to 25% level and one of the countries at one point will just inevitable have a year or two that will have a huge number of first rounders. Bound to happen.

The same factors which cause this in Canada are there in the rest of the world.

 

[Uncle Rotter]

Hockey is an expensive sport with a limited talent base owing to the exorbitant time and expense of youth-level player development. For these reasons, it is on the decline in Canada and on the rise in the US, which as a richer, larger nation is bound to eventually overtake Canada in player development.

Not the old saw about the "rich American cousins" again.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Canada showed having all players drafted in 1st round in WJC doesn't guarantee anything. It's how players develop after draft that matters.

Because one game determines the quality of an entire team. This isn't to discount USA - but they also had elite talent from the 1st round (Zegras, Knight, Sanderson, Turcotte, Johnson, Boldy, York, Brisson, and Caufield), so your argument isn't really that persuasive in this context.