GDT: New Jersey Devils vs. Washington Capitals - 7:30pm

[Triumph]

I do feel like the Devils, when they breakdown which has happened too frequently this year, give opponents tons of space for their shots.

Teams that play a softer zone/man hybrid are less likely to get 4-5 defenders all on the wrong side of the ice or having defenders covering nothing. That’s just the weakness you have to accept to play the swarm.

Space and time aren’t accounted for in xGA and if the thing the Devils may be worst at isn’t accounted for in the metric, then the metric may not be a good measure for the team’s play.

I know this was the argument made in 2022, but in 2023 the Devils goalies were +9 in goals allowed versus xG 5v5 - this would either mean they were incredible, or that xGA is pretty good at measuring stuff in aggegate. I can believe xG misses stuff in a single game, absolutely, I can believe it's theoretically missing stuff about the way the Devils play, sure, I don't think it's missing the mark by 2.5 goals last night. They did not play defense such that they deserved to give up 5 goals, and none of the goals were total fluke, hit a skate type stuff. The goalies just didn't make saves. They should've made one more save.

 

[Devils731]

I know this was the argument made in 2022, but in 2023 the Devils goalies were +9 in goals allowed versus xG 5v5 - this would either mean they were incredible, or that xGA is pretty good at measuring stuff in aggegate. I can believe xG misses stuff in a single game, absolutely, I can believe it's theoretically missing stuff about the way the Devils play, sure, I don't think it's missing the mark by 2.5 goals last night. They did not play defense such that they deserved to give up 5 goals, and none of the goals were total fluke, hit a skate type stuff. The goalies just didn't make saves. They should've made one more save.

Last night looked similar to 2 seasons ago to me where the Devils missed marking players, gave opponents lots of extra space, and didn’t close down on opponents fast enough.

Like the Mantha goal probably isn’t considered a high danger shot (because it wasn’t central enough) nor a high xG shot but it is given equal wait as an xG as a player shooting from that spot with a guy all over him in some models; when the danger level is inherently different. Most shots from there don’t go to wide open guys also with a passing option.

Time and space is a flaw for xG and the Devils gave lots of time and space last night so I would expect the xG number to measure danger less than reality.

 

[NJDevs26]

I missed where someone posted that and presented it as definitive analysis? You’re free to watch the game again and track it yourself. I doubt you’ll be left with the conclusion that Washington outplayed us.

Your post four above this for one. There isn't even a debate to be had when it just becomes a race to post the deserve to win chart or xG as proof positive of confirmation bias.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Your post four above this for one. There isn't even a debate to be had when becomes a race to post the deserve to win chart or xG as proof positive of confirmation bias.

Don’t even think I looked at the stats in the immediate aftermath of the game, but it was very obvious that we didn’t get a save. Probably why the coach removed the goaltender after a period.

 

[Devils731]

Criticizing xG a bit, I bet most models preferred the shot where the cap player scored while falling down compared to the Mantha goal.

So xG, I’m guessing as I don’t have a by shot model to look up, thinks the falling down shot was a less bad goal when it was a much worse goal to give up.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Multiple bad goals to really no good saves is not good enough. Vitek wasn’t great but wasn’t awful. The D was not good enough but Schmid was flat out awful.

I’m really trying to remember a notably difficult save in that game. Maybe there was one that I’m not recalling, but I can’t think of one. That’s not good.

 

[devilsblood]

They should've made one more save.

Or not allowed multiple 2 on 1's in the 3rd period, one with a lead, one while tied.

I mean how do you give up a 2 on 1 when you basically have 4 guys lined up on the blue line denying the zone entry? Or at least intending to deny the entry. It was a tap in goal. from there.

And then we lay this on the goalie?

 

[guitarguyvic]

Yeah, that isn’t what occurred. The hell were you watching if you think Jack, Toffoli, Meier, or Luke played “absolute shit hockey”?

The game was made almost impossible to win because we didn’t get any saves. We can play like that most nights and still battle for the playoffs. We get goaltending like that, and we’re in the basement.

You failed to read the entire sentence. The team collectively played like shit in their own end. Some worse than others, but the point being that every single one of those skaters with the exception of maybe Bahl and Smith are all better and more proven at their respective positions than Akira Shmid. They left their average, possibly below average goalie, hung out to dry.

The capitals, an inferior team in terms of talent, didn’t play as dumb in front of their no name goalie.

 

[guitarguyvic]

I mean we’ve had enough exposure to xG by now to see that it’s very much flawed and not accounting for several variables that affect the true danger of any given shot or chance. It’s borderline insulting to try to tell us what we watched last night wasn’t shit hockey for two out of three periods.

 

[Cheddabombs]

Perhaps two things can be true - goaltending wasn't good enough and the defensive breakdowns were terrible and far too frequent.

 

[Triumph]

Perhaps two things can be true - goaltending wasn't good enough and the defensive breakdowns were terrible and far too frequent.

Incredible. It definitely can't be this way, and it also can't have me saying like 15 times that the defense wasn't good last night only to hear back 'hurr durr you really expect a stop on this particular play'.

If you give up a goal on a breakaway, it's on the D. If you give up 10 goals on 10 breakaways, some of that ends up on the goalie. Hope that helps.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Or not allowed multiple 2 on 1's in the 3rd period, one with a lead, one while tied.

I mean how do you give up a 2 on 1 when you basically have 4 guys lined up on the blue line denying the zone entry? Or at least intending to deny the entry. It was a tap in goal. from there.

And then we lay this on the goalie?

The goalie is supposed to make difficult saves sometimes. Again, I do not remember a single impressive save of note.

 

[devilsblood]

Incredible. It definitely can't be this way, and it also can't have me saying like 15 times that the defense wasn't good last night only to hear back 'hurr durr you really expect a stop on this particular play'.

If you give up a goal on a breakaway, it's on the D. If you give up 10 goals on 10 breakaways, some of that ends up on the goalie. Hope that helps.

If you give up 10 breakaways in a game, it's on the D. Durr.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Perhaps two things can be true - goaltending wasn't good enough and the defensive breakdowns were terrible and far too frequent.

Everyone is in agreement in this. It’s the weight of who and what gets the most criticism that makes no sense.

Edit: actually I take that back. There’s at least one person attempting to portray the skaters’ performance last night as not being that bad, and unashamedly posting goofy win o meter graphics.

 

[Devils731]

Everyone is in agreement in this. It’s the weight of who and what gets the most criticism that makes no sense.

I’m not even sure that’s true. If someone is heavily using xG as evidence of the play last night then I believe they’re saying the defense wasn’t bad since the xG wasn’t bad.

 

[guitarguyvic]

I’m not even sure that’s true. If someone is heavily using xG as evidence of the play last night then I believe they’re saying the defense wasn’t bad since the xG wasn’t bad.

Yep see my edit.

 

[devilsblood]

The goalie is supposed to make difficult saves sometimes. Again, I do not remember a single impressive save of note.

I don't disagree, but if you play bad hockey which leads to odd man rush after odd man rush, it's not on the goalie and you shouldn't expect to win.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

Everyone is in agreement in this. It’s the weight of who and what gets the most criticism that makes no sense.

Edit: actually I take that back. There’s at least one person attempting to portray the skaters’ performance last night as not being that bad, and unashamedly posting goofy win o meter graphics.

I’ll just say this: watch more hockey if you think that type of performance results in 5 goals against more often than not. All we needed was less than 5 given up to get it to OT. No one is saying it was a gold star performance.

The charts that you hate so much at least provide some support for my claim that there shouldn’t have been so many goals given up. Better than the literally zero evidence that you have, based purely on vibes, feels, and that you were “at the game”.

 

[devilsblood]

I’ll just say this: watch more hockey if you think that type of performance results in 5 goals against more often than not. All we needed was less than 5 given up to get it to OT. No one is saying it was a gold star performance.

The charts that you hate so much at least provide some support for my claim that there shouldn’t have been so many goals given up. Better than the literally zero evidence that you have, based purely on vibes, feels, and that you were “at the game”.

Zero evidence? We are aware that the replays are readily available.




But nah, the "win-o-meter".

 

[guitarguyvic]

I’ll just say this: watch more hockey if you think that type of performance results in 5 goals against more often than not. All we needed was less than 5 given up to get it to OT. No one is saying it was a gold star performance.

The charts that you hate so much at least provide some support for my claim that there shouldn’t have been so many goals given up. Better than the literally zero evidence that you have, based purely on vibes, feels, and that you were “at the game”.

No you just simply don’t understand the crux of the argument. You’re failing to even acknowledge that the skaters - who are proven to be better players than this - played shit hockey in their own end and then laying an outsized amount of criticism on the goalie who is an unproven and average (at best) commodity. I’ve watched enough hockey to know that that combination has a very good chance of resulting in 5 goals against.

It’s also dumb to cite one statistical analysis that may have significant flaws as evidence.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I’ve said everything I needed to say and the evidence is overwhelmingly on my side. No need to continue.

 

[glenwo2]

Nothing but sniping back and forth.

It's like I'm watching a tennis match.

Who's serve is it now?

 

[devilsblood]

Nothing but sniping back and forth.

It's like I'm watching a tennis match.

Who's serve is it now?

Seems the losing side has surrendered. So I guess it's over.