Necas over/under 100 points?

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

He's currently at 42 points in 27 games, which is a 128 point pace. Needs 58 points in his last 55 games to hit 100.

He's obviously running hot, and we should expect him to cool off. But does he stay hot enough to hit 100?

He's currently shooting at 20.9%, with a 13.0% 5v5 on ice sh%.

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[Chet Donnelly]

Eric Staal is the Carolina Hurricanes team record holder for points in a single-season with 100 in 2005-06.

The franchise record belongs to Mike Rogers with 105 points for Hartford in 1980 and 1981.

Should be interesting to see if Necas can take one or both of these.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Eric Staal is the Carolina Hurricanes team record holder for points in a single-season with 100 in 2005-06.

The franchise record belongs to Mike Rogers with 105 points for Hartford in 1980 and 1981.

Should be interesting to see if Necas can take one or both of these.

I think he's got a good shot at surpassing Staal, but 105 might be tough.

 

[HeadLiceHatty]

Long time coming, the talent was always there, he’s clearing 100 with ease this year imo.

 

[amnesiac]

Long time coming, the talent was always there, he’s clearing 100 with ease this year imo.

with ease?? Hot starts happen... I mean we're only a third of the way through the season here. The guy had a very average 53P last season, 71 the year before. Its not like hes ever come remotely close to 100 at all.

 

[Felidae]

His career high is 71 points and he's never been a PPG for a full season.

His shooting% is also 8% higher than his career average, and he has nearly topped his career high in powerplay assists with 55 games left to play

most likely outcome is he falls short.

When was the last time a player had a 30+ point jump at age 25+ that didn't end up being an outlier year?

 

[Regal]

I’d probably still say the under for now, since he hasn’t been PPG before, there’s no guarantee he stays at that level the rest of the year. Should probably pass 90 at least if he stays healthy though.

 

[BerthMania]

For those who watch him play has he improved drastically this year?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

with ease?? Hot starts happen... I mean we're only a third of the way through the season here. The guy had a very average 53P last season, 71 the year before. Its not like hes ever come remotely close to 100 at all.

He didn't play on PP1 last year. 71 points as a 23 year old suggests a ppg+ isn't out of the question.

His career high is 71 points and he's never been a PPG for a full season.

His shooting% is also 8% higher than his career average, and he has nearly topped his career high in powerplay assists with 55 games left to play

most likely outcome is he falls short.

When was the last time a player had a 30+ point jump at age 25+ that didn't end up being an outlier year?

Miller, Bennett, D Strome, and Reinhart are all guys who took big steps after 24-25. It's not unprecedented.

 

[Regal]

His career high is 71 points and he's never been a PPG for a full season.

His shooting% is also 8% higher than his career average, and he has nearly topped his career high in powerplay assists with 55 games left to play

most likely outcome is he falls short.

When was the last time a player had a 30+ point jump at age 25+ that didn't end up being an outlier year?

I don’t think it’s that uncommon to see players hit a new level around or after 25. Zibanejad, Couturier, Huberdeau, the Sedins, Marchand, Tage Thompson are a few that came to mind. Nearly doubling last year would be a pretty major jump, but if he’s becoming a 80-90 point player for the next few years, 100 points with his hot start wouldn’t be too crazy of an outlier.

 

[JiricekSaveUs]

I hope he hits it just because I’ll be fascinated to see how Carolina treats the negotiations of a player they already didn’t want to pay who is coming off a gigantic outlier year.

 

[LemonSauceD]

His career high is 71 points and he's never been a PPG for a full season.

His shooting% is also 8% higher than his career average, and he has nearly topped his career high in powerplay assists with 55 games left to play

most likely outcome is he falls short.

When was the last time a player had a 30+ point jump at age 25+ that didn't end up being an outlier year?

JT miller went from being a 50 point guy until about 26 to 100 point guy at 28. (Well he had 99 points). And had another one last season.

 

[Video Nasty]

100 on the nose seems fair. It’s acknowledging his hot third of a season start, while also considering that:

• His career high is 71 points
• It wasn’t set just last season
• His career PPG coming into the season was 0.67 through 362 games

Reaching 100 from here on out is giving him the benefit of the doubt that he sees a 22% increase on his previous best 82 game production for the remaining 55 games, and I think that’s a more than generous prediction. Basically, I’m saying that he has to be the equivalent of an 87 point player for the final two-thirds to hit 100.

 

[Regal]

JT miller went from being a 50 point guy until about 26 to 100 point guy at 28. (Well he had 99 points). And had another one last season.

Canucks actually have a number of these. Bertuzzi, Naslund and the Sedins all became elite scorers late as well

 

[DitchMarner]

A while ago, I was thinking of comparable starts to seasons from players who had never been in the Art Race race.

I don't remember how he did in his first 25 or so games, but Hubderdeau was surprisingly close to McDavid in scoring late in the 2022 season. He had been a top ten scorer over the previous few seasons, however

I remember Alex Steen was first in goals and points a few weeks into a season ('13-'14, I think). Necas is probably more talented offensively than Steen, but I don't see him staying in the top five for the remainder of the month. I can see him finishing about 12th in points and with about 92 on the season. I'll be surprised but not shocked if he hits 100. Definitely don't expect 105 or more.

 

[SlafySZN]

I think he does it, but wouldn’t be surprised if he ‘’regressed’’ to be a 70-75 points guy next year.

 

[amnesiac]

He didn't play on PP1 last year. 71 points as a 23 year old suggests a ppg+ isn't out of the question.

PPG sure, but there’s a, 18 point gap between PPG and 100

 

[Czechboy]

I voted under. I say he ends with 82 points in, hopefully, 82 games played.

I think the Worlld's really sparked his confidence. I know it's unsustainable what he's doing right now but the eye test looks damn good when I watch. He has that puck on his stick all night. He's making play after play.

Half his points are at 5 on 5 too.

He also has a big points lead on the second leading scorer

So it's not like he's being carried by a McDavid type player OR being a 'powerplay merchant'.

Really curious how it ends. My dream is that him and Pasta end up in top ten by end of season. Be nice to see 2 Czechs in top 10 again.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

PPG sure, but there’s a 28 point gap between PPG and 100

No there's not. 100-82=18

 

[dirtydanglez]

No there's not. 100-82=18

i believe they meant his current ppg (128 pts) and a 100 pt season.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Not only is he playing on the 1st unit this year (his down season saw him play on the 2nd unit), but also it revolves around him at the left half wall. He's touching the puck a lot. He's rapidly (19) approaching his full season PPP total in 22-23 (26).

Carolina has the pieces for an elite regular season PP. Last year showed that.

If he's touching the puck a lot on an elite regular season PP, he'll continue to rack up points and stave off EV regression. I like his chances.

 

[BoHorvat 53]

Think he ends at just under 100, something like 97 points.

 

[HeadLiceHatty]

with ease?? Hot starts happen... I mean we're only a third of the way through the season here. The guy had a very average 53P last season, 71 the year before. Its not like hes ever come remotely close to 100 at all.

He passes the eye test for me, he’s taken his game to another level and he has a great supporting cast, I think he’ll do it.

 

[Gerulaitis]

Arguably, Necas is the best Czech center since Michal Pivonka

 

[amnesiac]

No there's not. 100-82=18

oops!

Arguably, Necas is the best Czech center since Michal Pivonka

I think Krejci, Straka, even Hertl were quite better... Pivonka played 80% of his career in high scoring hockey