Nashville Predators talk - The Offseason

[Viqsi]

Rebuilding with those Huberdeau and Kadri contracts would be an interesting choice

Never claimed it'd be easy, but...

 

[101st_fan]

Then you have to believe Poile was lying when he said he was taking Jones and was prepared to trade up to get him.

MacKinnon was the consensus #1 .... Poile WANTING to potentially trade up a spot or two for Jones was probably the case.

Rebuilding with those Huberdeau and Kadri contracts would be an interesting choice

If they get back to 80% of what they were just a couple of seasons ago then Calgary has a couple good top nine forwards.

 

[Armourboy]

Rebuilding with those Huberdeau and Kadri contracts would be an interesting choice

You could retain on both and get positive value. Both players are still good players, they just aren't worth the salary they are being paid. Get them down to 5-6 million a year and they won't have much issue moving them.

 

[MrJoshua]

MacKinnon was the consensus #1 .... Poile WANTING to potentially trade up a spot or two for Jones was probably the case.

That’s not what I remember at all. I recall a LOT of talk that Jones was going number one.

 

[glenngineer]

That’s not what I remember at all. I recall a LOT of talk that Jones was going number one.

You are not alone. If I remember correctly, he was the highest rate prospect that year. On the flip side, if you can land a number 1 C, you do it. You can always deal them for pieces later if you need to.

Speaking of which, Colorado at two different times had a stockpile of centers. Sakic, Forsberg, Nolan and Sundin. They then had MacKinnon, Duchene, ROR and Stastny. While all weren't number 1's, that is an embarrassment of riches.

Best center we've ever drafted is still probably Legwand. Honestly, outside of him and Sissons, who else did we draft up the middle that did anything for us? Seriously, I can't think of anyone off hand without having to look at rosters over the years. That's sad.

 

[herzausstein]

You could retain on both and get positive value. Both players are still good players, they just aren't worth the salary they are being paid. Get them down to 5-6 million a year and they won't have much issue moving them.

What are the most years retained foe a trade transaction? Kadri still has 5 years and Huberdeau 6. Just seems like a long time to retain

 

[101st_fan]

That’s not what I remember at all. I recall a LOT of talk that Jones was going number one.

Such a #1 that he went #4 because none of the top three drafting teams had any interest in going defense first .... and they were right. The only question was if Jones was going 2, 3, or falling to us at 4 that year.

 

[PredsV82]

Such a #1 that he went #4 because none of the top three drafting teams had any interest in going defense first .... and they were right. The only question was if Jones was going 2, 3, or falling to us at 4 that year.

The consensus on this board was we were getting Barkov because Jones was supposed to go 1st and McKinnon and Drouin 2 and 3.

 

[David Singleton]

CBS Sports
NBC Sports
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Bleacher Report

Jones was the consensus top pick and much was written about him "falling" in the draft. That's a quick sample.

Neither here nor there really, but whatever.

 

[Armourboy]

The consensus on this board was we were getting Barkov because Jones was supposed to go 1st and McKinnon and Drouin 2 and 3.

As I recall the day it had become pretty well known Colorado was going McKinnon, the assumption was that Florida needed Dmen so they at least would go Jones. Once they went Barkov is when things went nuts and we kind of knew Jones was going to be our pick.

What are the most years retained foe a trade transaction? Kadri still has 5 years and Huberdeau 6. Just seems like a long time to retain

It wasn't much but we retained on Ekholm for what I think is 6 years. Teams generally don't, but if you want to move them bad enough and get value that option is there.

 

[jumb0]

I thought a lot of the Jones going #1 talk was as much because he grew up in Denver when his dad was playing for the Nuggets

 

[MrJoshua]

I thought a lot of the Jones going #1 talk was as much because he grew up in Denver when his dad was playing for the Nuggets

That’s possible I guess, but the impression I had at the time was that he was going to be winning Norris trophies. There was serious hype for Jones going into that draft and after the draft I had a weird mixture of disappointment that Nashville didn’t get a center and elation that they were going to have the best blue line in the league for the next decade plus. I thought Jones was going to grow into a number one defender learning from Shea Weber and Roman Josi, and would be ready to take over right when Weber was ready to step back into fewer minutes in a reduced role.

So basically I’m saying that you should never listen to me when it comes to predicting NHL roster moves.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

That’s possible I guess, but the impression I had at the time was that he was going to be winning Norris trophies. There was serious hype for Jones going into that draft and after the draft I had a weird mixture of disappointment that Nashville didn’t get a center and elation that they were going to have the best blue line in the league for the next decade plus. I thought Jones was going to grow into a number one defender learning from Shea Weber and Roman Josi, and would be ready to take over right when Weber was ready to step back into fewer minutes in a reduced role.

So basically I’m saying that you should never listen to me when it comes to predicting NHL roster moves.

Jones was hyped as what Makar actually is.

 

[triggrman]

I'm just hoping we can turn around our terrible drafting. We have like 1 player on the roster from like the last 8 drafts.

 

[Viqsi]

I'm just hoping we can turn around our terrible drafting. We have like 1 player on the roster from like the last 8 drafts.

Fabbro and Evangelista are regulars here. Girard and Tolvanen are regulars elsewhere. Parssinen, Askarov, and Sastney are all in position to get regular spots on the roster next year. Svetchkov, L'Heureux, Ufko, Kemell, Wood, and Molendyk are still developing.

Base rate fallacy - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

No, we have not added any superstars as yet. Gee golly gosh darn. Referring to the drafting as "terrible" is still egregious hyperbole.

 

[David Singleton]

CBS Sports
NBC Sports
Sportsnet.ca
Bleacher Report

Jones was the consensus top pick and much was written about him "falling" in the draft. That's a quick sample.

Neither here nor there really, but whatever.

So a bit of a deeper dive as I'm awake now, lol.

MacKinnon was the consensus #1 ....

Per that Sportsnet.ca article linked in my original post:

Rankings: Jones was ranked first by the NHL’s Central Scouting (North American skaters), first by McKeen’s Hockey and second by International Scouting Services.

(Those links in the original article are broken now, but you can find a bunch of stuff in the McKeen's archives, like this article on Victor Arvidsson for McKeen subscribers.)

So, the consensus by the scouting services was very much that Jones was either the 1st or 2nd rated prospect going into the draft. Generally speaking, of course, that is based purely on the players/their skills/their position and doesn't take into account the vagaries of the teams making the choices (hence, my original "neither here nor there" remark).

You are not alone. If I remember correctly, he was the highest rate prospect that year. On the flip side, if you can land a number 1 C, you do it. You can always deal them for pieces later if you need to.

I thought a lot of the Jones going #1 talk was as much because he grew up in Denver when his dad was playing for the Nuggets

To @glenngineer 's point regarding player position versus draft position (and @jumb0 's remembrances) - from the McKeen's May 2013 Draft Preview on Seth Jones:

There are questions about drafting a defenseman first overall given recent high picks Victor Hedman and Erik Johnson’s slow development. This along with questions about his defensive play, his physicality and intensity as outlined in more detail below in our scouting profile have many questioning whether he will be making history as the first African-American to be drafted first overall in the NHL. These questions are fair, but there is no denying the incredible fluid skating skills and the athleticism that allows him to take control of the tempo at times. There is some similarity to Larry Robinson, a fellow big man who relied on skill and instinct while using his size judiciously but wisely. Jones is a young man who has progressed and grown this season, the upside is formidable, and one the Avalanche will not be able to resist.

We discussed the great personal connection Jones has to Colorado in our last article.

So, all that is to say that people's memories aren't as bad as we often claim them to be, . As to whether Jones was the top project on the Nashville Predator's draft board, we'll never know for sure unless someone has a picture of that board. And if he was, that would not seem too off the wall given the consensus regarding his overall talent and ceiling combined with the often-stated strategy of building from the goalie-out of that regime.

Also of note from that Jones' draft preview, noting the rumors that the Avalanche were going to take a forward first:

Teams who might be interested in Seth Jones:
The Colorado Avalanche and Florida Panthers will be in the market for Jones’ services. Although the Avalanche are said to be interested in a forward for the first-overall pick, Jones is such a dynamic defenceman that he could force them to reconsider – if they aren’t already trying a misdirection by publicly stating their preference for a forward. Should he be available for the second pick, the Panthers may not have to think hard about their choice. Jones would make an immediate impact in Florida at a position of need.

 

[PredsV82]

I also remember Jones being a bit butthurt that he dropped to 4.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Basically nobody had him at #4, I guess. There was maybe a split for #1 between him and MacKinnon by the later stages approaching the draft, but nobody ranked him lower than #3? And his family is definitely fairly notorious for being a little noisy such that they might broadcast their butthurtedness.

 

[MrJoshua]

As to whether Jones was the top project on the Nashville Predator's draft board, we'll never know for sure unless someone has a picture of that board.

I feel like there was a televised behind-the-scenes special after that draft. I have a clear memory of seeing David Poile on TV in a room full of scouts asking if anyone disagreed that Jones was the best player in the draft.

 

[triggrman]

Fabbro and Evangelista are regulars here. Girard and Tolvanen are regulars elsewhere. Parssinen, Askarov, and Sastney are all in position to get regular spots on the roster next year. Svetchkov, L'Heureux, Ufko, Kemell, Wood, and Molendyk are still developing.

Base rate fallacy - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

No, we have not added any superstars as yet. Gee golly gosh darn. Referring to the drafting as "terrible" is still egregious hyperbole.

Fabbro isn't a regular, he's still healthy scratched 25 times a year.

Evangelista is the one I was mentioning.

I'm not asking for stars, just players. Poile repeatedly said their goal is 3 players from each draft.

 

[Viqsi]

Fabbro isn't a regular, he's still healthy scratched 25 times a year.

Evangelista is the one I was mentioning.

I'm not asking for stars, just players. Poile repeatedly said their goal is 3 players from each draft.

If that's taken to mean "players" as in "folks who see NHL time somewhere", that's doable. Otherwise, see previous link re: Base Rate Fallacy.

 

[triggrman]

If that's taken to mean "players" as in "folks who see NHL time somewhere", that's doable. Otherwise, see previous link re: Base Rate Fallacy.

Okay, then there's 2.

 

[Armourboy]

Fabbro isn't a regular, he's still healthy scratched 25 times a year.

Evangelista is the one I was mentioning.

I'm not asking for stars, just players. Poile repeatedly said their goal is 3 players from each draft.

Guess some of it comes down to expectations. If stars don't matter then you basically throw out the last 3 drafts because they are just now reaching the stage where you have reasonable expectations they may play. So with that in mind,

2020 is the first year

- Evangelista
- Askarov ( goalies take longer )
- Prokop may be a stretch but it's still possible at least

2019

- Tomasino is an NHL player, we just won't play him
- Afanasyev should have been up but we decided we would rather use Tweeners.
- Del Gaizo may yet make it
- Parssinen, coach screwed up so still possible.

2018 we didn't have but 4 picks and the highest round was 4th.

- Stastney

2017 not great and only player is no longer with us

- Tolvanen

2016 okish although not all with us

- Fabbro
- Girard ( Colorado)
- Pitlick is a stretch but not with us anyways

2015 solid and no 1st rounder

- Trenin
- Novak
- Carrier
- Vejmelka ( Arizona)

Maybe we haven't set the world on fire but it's not a tire fire either. Also gotta get a bit of credit for a guy like Jeannot who wasn't drafted but we found him.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Guess some of it comes down to expectations. If stars don't matter then you basically throw out the last 3 drafts because they are just now reaching the stage where you have reasonable expectations they may play. So with that in mind,

2020 is the first year

- Evangelista
- Askarov ( goalies take longer )
- Prokop may be a stretch but it's still possible at least

2019

- Tomasino is an NHL player, we just won't play him
- Afanasyev should have been up but we decided we would rather use Tweeners.
- Del Gaizo may yet make it
- Parssinen, coach screwed up so still possible.

2018 we didn't have but 4 picks and the highest round was 4th.

- Stastney

2017 not great and only player is no longer with us

- Tolvanen

2016 okish although not all with us

- Fabbro
- Girard ( Colorado)
- Pitlick is a stretch but not with us anyways

2015 solid and no 1st rounder

- Trenin
- Novak
- Carrier
- Vejmelka ( Arizona)

Maybe we haven't set the world on fire but it's not a tire fire either. Also gotta get a bit of credit for a guy like Jeannot who wasn't drafted but we found him.

I think the main problem with this list is that you only see 1 player basically who is a potential top-6 forward with us (Evangelista), and basically ZERO other players who are anything above replacement-level. Askarov may hopefully change some of that by becoming a top player, but so far that hasn't happened. We may have some sentimental attachment to a few, but if you're an outside observer, they aren't actually anything anybody else wants.

So if almost nobody in those 6 drafts is anything more than a generic depth UFA or guy we could have picked up on waivers (or tossed away ourselves), then that feels like a problem?

Not sure if it's with the drafting entirely as much as the development, since it does feel like at least a few of those players could have been something a little more for us if things had turned out differently, but then if at the end of the day we have NOTHING to show for those picks, what difference does it make? We already scrapped Tolvanen and Vejmelka, seem very likely to do the same with Tomasino and Fabbro. Ended up with nothing for Girard. It's kind of a problem at some level that basically nobody on the entire list (aside from crossing fingers so far on Evangelista+Askarov) is going to have amounted to anything for us? The scouts found some players. But we didn't get value out of them. Flip side, I guess if we start a new tally from the 2020 draft onwards and things turn out better, great, the prior era was somebody else's mess.

 

[herzausstein]

Guess some of it comes down to expectations. If stars don't matter then you basically throw out the last 3 drafts because they are just now reaching the stage where you have reasonable expectations they may play. So with that in mind,

2020 is the first year

- Evangelista
- Askarov ( goalies take longer )
- Prokop may be a stretch but it's still possible at least

2019

- Tomasino is an NHL player, we just won't play him
- Afanasyev should have been up but we decided we would rather use Tweeners.
- Del Gaizo may yet make it
- Parssinen, coach screwed up so still possible.

2018 we didn't have but 4 picks and the highest round was 4th.

- Stastney

2017 not great and only player is no longer with us

- Tolvanen

2016 okish although not all with us

- Fabbro
- Girard ( Colorado)
- Pitlick is a stretch but not with us anyways

2015 solid and no 1st rounder

- Trenin
- Novak
- Carrier
- Vejmelka ( Arizona)

Maybe we haven't set the world on fire but it's not a tire fire either. Also gotta get a bit of credit for a guy like Jeannot who wasn't drafted but we found him.

We just havent managed to hit any high end talent with our picks in that timeframe. Granted most of the players in that range are still works in progress/developing.

2018 to 2023 outside of the top 10-15 picks there arent very many players that are currently contributing to the NHL teams that drafted him. Sure there will be a few exceptions but is that skill or luck? Typically if you want to have an impact player in that short of time you need to be in the top 10 of the 1st round, absolutely nail a later pick, or be in such a state or rebuild/cap crunch that you are willing to let the player learn at the NHL level.