My opinion on why it's impossible to predict a goalie prospect's future success

[Number 57]

Nowadays we often hear people say they dont want to see their team draft a goalie high in the first round (or even in the first round, period). Because they are so hard to project, it's basically a wasted pick. Many goalies drafted in the first round end up busting hard, while a lot of goalies drafted later end up having NHL success (Rinne, Halak, Lundqvist, etc).

I find it weird because the only thing that matters for a goalie is: can he stop the puck? So all the scouts have to do is find out which goalie will stop the more pucks.

Simple, yes? In a way this is exactly why it's hard to draft the right goalie. If you look at a bunch of 16 and 17 years old, ALL OF THEM CAN STOP THE PUCK. You'll never see a QMJHL regular starter or a NCAA regular starter who cannot stop the puck, obviously. They all can. Otherwise they wouldnt be there. Why? Because it's all they need to do. Simple. They don't have to hit, they don't have to skate, they don't have to score goals.

Of course, you're gonna argue that by watching them you can evaluate which one is the better. Or by looking at their stats. But, not really. They are too young and they all play on different teams. The difference is so minimal between each goalie, and the fact that all play in different situations skew the numbers and the performances so much, that it becomes impossible to really evaluate them.

If you're looking to draft a high-end goal scorer, it's pretty obvious which one to grab. Not hard to pick the skilled guys out of the lot. You can see the skills jump out at you when you watch the game. You can see which one skate better, which one shoot better, which one projects into a better pro. But not with goalies. Because goalies are simply there to make a save, and nothing else. And in most situations, all goalies will make the save.

So what do you do? You eliminate anyone under 6 feet, which simplifies the job for you. Then, you stop taking stupid risks and only draft goalies in the 2nd round or after.

Do you have a different opinion?

Click to read more...

 

[elmaco]

Assess the intelligence of the individual combined with good athleticism, what being a goalie is all about.

 

[Ainec]

I agree for the most part

Athleticism and size goes a long way. This is why Vasilevskiy as a 1st rounder was a shrewd pick unlike Fucale.

Another thing is how they progress in their D+1-D+5 in a league similar to the NHL. This is why I'm comfortable with Demko like I was with Hellebuyck.

 

[AUAIOMRN]

A forward that fails as a first liner can still have value on the second or third line. A goalie that doesn't make it as a starter is just a backup, and backup goalies don't have much value.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Question is whether the goalie is the right fit for the NHL team system. Different teams have different demands on their goalies.

Skaters in this regard are much easier to project than goalies.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

A forward that fails as a first liner can still have value on the second or third line. A goalie that doesn't make it as a starter is just a backup, and backup goalies don't have much value.

This is also how I see it, in terms of why I don't like my team taking a chance on a goalie high in a draft.

You can select a forward with a 1st round pick with the hope he'll turn into a star, but there are "layers" he can still reach below that level of stardom whereby he'd still be a solid pick. With goalies, you either draft a starter or you just wasted your pick.

Example: drafting a center, you're hoping for Crosby/McDavid. But the player can fall below those expectations (Duchene, Turris, etc.) and still be a good player for you. Drafting a goalie, you're hoping for a legitimate #1 (Holtby, Price, Rinne, etc.). If they end up below that level, you're probably going to have massive issues in nets.

 

[McDLT]

Drafting goalies is a crapshoot

 

[glenngineer]

While it's easy to say eliminate anyone under 5'11", should that really be the case? Juuse Saros is an example that may not fit with your statement. He's a backup right now. He's 22. He has a great mentor in Rinne but one is 6'5" and the other is 5'11". Saros fits in to your category of a guy who stops the puck. So what could make him different?

At every level he's played at, he's dominated and put up amazing stats. Once again, not earth shattering because most people playing in the NHL have done so. What gives him a chance at success? Athleticism he's got so that's checked off. I think the one thing that Saros has from watching him is that he is fundamentally sound. There is only one goalie that comes to mind that makes it look easy in net and that is Carey Price that I compare him to when it comes to his fundamentals.

You said you want a guy that can stop the puck but if you have one that is fundamentally sound, it should translate as long as they stay true to that form. Lots of goalies can get away with stopping pucks at lower levels because their athleticism takes over. Having the athleticism, teamed with solid fundamentals is huge. Now team that with the ability to read the play and you have an NHL goalie. Saros has all of these.

While he lacks the true size of what you want to see in an NHL netminder, his other skill sets are off the charts. His ability to track the puck is solid too. Watching the game from Friday night, there was a scramble in front of the net and he ended up being to the side a little bit and while the scramble was going on, his head and eyes were always focused on the puck. He was laying flat on his stomach, head was up, focused on the puck.

I'm not saying he'll make the jump from Rinne's backup to starter when the time comes but I wouldn't bet against this kid. I've also noticed, Rinne is a lot more quiet in net over the last year or so. Is it from the goalie coach, watching Saros, a little of both? Who knows but I think Rinne has been good for Saros as well as Saros being good for Rinne.

Great idea for a post by the way. Hardly ever discussed on here.

 

[Caeldan]

Also why I think you need to take at a minimum one goalie per draft, because you never know how they'll pan out.

Plus if you're smart about where you draft them from you can manage a stable of 7 or 8 goalie prospects.
Keep one in Europe, one or two in NCAA a few years apart, about three between your AHL affiliate and ECHL affiliates, and one or two in major junior separated by a couple years.
Should keep you with an idea of your goalie situation for years to come.

 

[DownIsTheNewUp]

I agree that stats can be misleading for a goalie prospect. However I think good scouting can identify pretty good predictors of a goalies future success.

Also a lot of a goalies success comes down to their development in the organization. A good example is Vasilevskiy taken in the first round. Had out of this world athleticism and agility, but not the technicality. Lightning were able to work with him and teach him the technical side. His success now is because he is playing smart and positioned well, and when he gets in trouble, then he lets his athleticism save him.

 

[BleedBlue14]

Assess the intelligence of the individual combined with good athleticism, what being a goalie is all about.

Intelligence can be a double-edged sword for such a mental position. I would not evaluate intelligence for a goalie. I know this sounds utterly ridiculous, but hear me out. I would almost want a goalie with the lower intelligence. Most athletes that are intelligent tend to over think a lot of situations and it's fairly easy for them to get in there own head. Now is this the case for all brilliant athletes? No, there are some brilliant people that are very confident and stubborn. Once someone starts to doubt themselves it's game over in a position like this. I generally would want someone who doesn't think and generally trusts their instincts. Granted, you can't be a brick as there is positional play to think about. Typically though in a position like this it's extremely helpful to not be a critical thinker and just be overly confident in your abilities and trust these abilities.

 

[ESH]

Question is whether the goalie is the right fit for the NHL team system. Different teams have different demands on their goalies.

Skaters in this regard are much easier to project than goalies.

Not only that, but I think the overall quality of the team when the goalie is trying to break in is important as well. How often do you see rookie goalies on bad teams? Having a good team can make it so much easier for a goalie to come in and win games.

 

[PenguinSpeed]

Nowadays we often hear people say they dont want to see their team draft a goalie high in the first round (or even in the first round, period). Because they are so hard to project, it's basically a wasted pick. Many goalies drafted in the first round end up busting hard, while a lot of goalies drafted later end up having NHL success (Rinne, Halak, Lundqvist, etc).

I find it weird because the only thing that matters for a goalie is: can he stop the puck? So all the scouts have to do is find out which goalie will stop the more pucks.

Simple, yes? In a way this is exactly why it's hard to draft the right goalie. If you look at a bunch of 16 and 17 years old, ALL OF THEM CAN STOP THE PUCK. You'll never see a QMJHL regular starter or a NCAA regular starter who cannot stop the puck, obviously. They all can. Otherwise they wouldnt be there. Why? Because it's all they need to do. Simple. They don't have to hit, they don't have to skate, they don't have to score goals.

Of course, you're gonna argue that by watching them you can evaluate which one is the better. Or by looking at their stats. But, not really. They are too young and they all play on different teams. The difference is so minimal between each goalie, and the fact that all play in different situations skew the numbers and the performances so much, that it becomes impossible to really evaluate them.

If you're looking to draft a high-end goal scorer, it's pretty obvious which one to grab. Not hard to pick the skilled guys out of the lot. You can see the skills jump out at you when you watch the game. You can see which one skate better, which one shoot better, which one projects into a better pro. But not with goalies. Because goalies are simply there to make a save, and nothing else. And in most situations, all goalies will make the save.

So what do you do? You eliminate anyone under 6 feet, which simplifies the job for you. Then, you stop taking stupid risks and only draft goalies in the 2nd round or after.

Do you have a different opinion?

-All the Great Goalies I heard about last year, Bobrovsky, Holtby, Rinne, Anderson, they all got beaten like a rented mule in the playoffs. This is all I heard in the playoffs the last 2 years. I would draft Centers.

 

[Kcoyote3]

-All the Great Goalies I heard about last year, Bobrovsky, Holtby, Rinne, Anderson, they all got beaten like a rented mule in the playoffs. This is all I heard in the playoffs the last 2 years. I would draft Centers.

Man this is a weak argument.

 

[PenguinSpeed]

Man this is a weak argument.

-

 

[Canadiens1958]

Not only that, but I think the overall quality of the team when the goalie is trying to break in is important as well. How often do you see rookie goalies on bad teams? Having a good team can make it so much easier for a goalie to come in and win games.

Context of drafting an 18 year old goalie, no one can project what the NHL team will look like 3-5 years hence.

 

[BlueSeal]

This argument can be made to fit any position in any sport. Nail Yakupov comes to mind, for one.

Any player is a crapshoot; success in the minors doesn't always equal success in the NHL. How many promising prospects crapped out when or after they made the transition to the NHL?

For a goalie, I'm of the mind that Mental Toughness has to be there for them to be successful. Of all the stats, that one to me is the most important and many comes out of the minors and bomb or eek out horrible stats over a long period of time because they absolutely lack it.

 

[Narwian]

Draft every year one Finnish gt after 3rd Round and you eventually get at least one great gt in five years. Guaranteed.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Young goalies often have a wide variety of "training". A talented 17 year old playing in junior just might not the proper coaching. A similar goalies playing in another city might have a good goalie coach. So who looks better in junior? If they both turn pro, the coaching will be somewhat similar. The "bad" or poorly coached junior goalie now is on an even keel with other goalies.
Even in the NHL, it might be tough to say who is a better goalie. How good would Holtby or Lundqvist would been if they had started their careers with Arizona? Instead of being known as elite, maybe they would be just "another guy" because of their team.

 

[pheasant]

A big part of the problem is that a goalie can go from a tire fire to a superstar just by changing the team in front of him, and/or small adjustments to his game like puck tracking.

Look at Dubnyk. He was out of the league, then goes on a tear with a new team for like 30 games to close out a season. When he was asked about it, he said he started tracking the puck differently (IIRC). That's it.

Then look at Darling. He was borderline starter material in Chicago, but on a new team, even on a strong defensive one, he is a disaster.

Even with the same team, Andersen in Toronto was playing terrible at the start of last season (and this one, oddly), but then changed on a dime and played great. His only change was how he challenged shooters, and getting his netflix set up in his new place. Seriously, that's what he said turned him around his first season in TO.

It's more than just numbers, yes. Athleticism, size, and the eye test all matter. But the fact that some small changes can make such a big difference, good or bad, makes drafting a G a total (r@p$#00t.

 

[Patrik Barkov]

-

So it's simple, just get two top 5 centers on your team and you're good to go!

 

[pckstpr31]

If you're looking to draft a high-end goal scorer, it's pretty obvious which one to grab. Not hard to pick the skilled guys out of the lot. You can see the skills jump out at you when you watch the game. You can see which one skate better, which one shoot better, which one projects into a better pro. But not with goalies. Because goalies are simply there to make a save, and nothing else. And in most situations, all goalies will make the save.

So just because you don't know what to look for in a goalie, no one does? If you've studied/played the position, you can pick out skills that make one goalie better than another. Now I agree it's certainly harder to make projections from those skills than it is with someone like a pure sniper. But I don't think it is as black and white as you're saying.

 

[TGWL]

-

Your point is to draft Centers? But then you post a photo of a franchise player, a guy ranked 1st overall, years before he was drafted?

 

[Beerfish]

Goaltending is an utter travesty these days. Carbon coy cookie cutter goalies that all look the same and do the same other than about 4 or 5 guys. you could put 25 guys in white unis and all the same look and it would be tough to tell them apart.

Be at lest 6'4", wear large equipment and go down on your knees the moment the other team crosses the blue line and stay down when the puck goes behind the net, watch as teams muffin shot into the top corner of the net. Have ZERO goalie stick skills (not puck handling but poke check).

Athleticism? HA! is what i say to that for most of them. The goal is remove all athleticism from the position and just block room. It's awful to behold.

 

[Tak7]

Question is whether the goalie is the right fit for the NHL team system. Different teams have different demands on their goalies.

Skaters in this regard are much easier to project than goalies.

Do they though?

The only real "tendency" that most teams may have with their goaltender now, is whether or not / how frequently he should be playing the puck, and what he should be doing with it.

Beyond that, most goalies play the same hybrid style now, and if they stop the puck, the rest of it doesn't matter.