GBU Mon 2/15/2021 - Sabres observe holiday

[Buff15Sabres]

I think it was a below average effort by both players. Dahlin should have closed harder to close the gap and pressure.
However, Ullmark needs to come out harder and challenge knowing the angle is relatively sharp. He has had issues covering the sides of the net when the angle is sharp this season.

The combination of a poor closure by Dahlin and bad angles by Ullmark led to that goal.

Not that Ullmark is blameless on that goal, but so much more blame needs to go on Dahlin. Really irritated me last night when Rob Ray called out Ullmark on that goal and ignored Dahlin. Ullmark wasn't anticipating a shot from there, because he was anticipating Dahlin being able to make a routine NHL play. He still had decent positioning after a completely unexpected play from his defenseman, and the opponent took a great shot to score.

 

[Ygo]

Not that Ullmark is blameless on that goal, but so much more blame needs to go on Dahlin. Really irritated me last night when Rob Ray called out Ullmark on that goal and ignored Dahlin. Ullmark wasn't anticipating a shot from there, because he was anticipating Dahlin being able to make a routine NHL play. He still had decent positioning after a completely unexpected play from his defenseman, and the opponent took a great shot to score.

I have watched the replay several times... there is no surprise on that shot at all.

• Dahlin, reaches forward (which he shouldn't have) in the neutral zone (was clearly thinking turnover)
• Slips slightly on recovery
• Shades to centre of ice to give Pageau one option
• Recovers almost entirely... to the point where there was one option

Ullmark gets beat. I don't mind our offensive young D thinking about making a play. Especially when he is clearly able to recover to give up a shot on a bad angle that 98% of the time is a save. I mean, let's have the worlds most boring team and get on an offensive D about shading to the centre of the ice instead of erasing a play at the top of the circle (where offensive player goes to next option and we have a one on one for possession). He took a shot from relatively deep given the angle he was on.

 

[THUNDERBURST]

I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not. Paguea never made a move to the center, and both Miller+Reinhart had that covered anyway. Why would a defenseman need to turn his entire body to see something that he only had to shift his eyes for ? Dreadful play by Dahlin

I am not sarcastic and I disagree with you.

Regardless of the goal, that's still not good defense. You can't just let skaters blow by you on even-man rushes, it doesn't matter if it's out wide or not.

Here's an example of a similar play the other way:

View attachment 396908

In this sequence we had a very good breakout that completely nullified the Isles forecheck. As a result, Hall has the puck and has entered the zone with speed. Initially Greene has a very wide gap to compensate for Hall's speed, but he quickly adjusts his stick positioning, body positioning, and quickly closes the gap to steer Hall to the wall before he completely pinches him off. Hall actually gets by him, but his momentum is completely disrupted, the Isles eventually clear the zone and this becomes a harmless entry without any issues.

The Isles did this all game; Hall, Skinner, or Eichel would occassionaly transition through the neutral zone with speed, but the defense would nullify their speed with good technique as we see here.

But this is a completely different situation, where the Islanders attack was developing from the central zone, Dahlin slipped a little on the blue line and was not far from Pageaut, he did not see what was behind him and from the side, perhaps he could have played better in this moment, but this the goal of the goalie, he must take puck such.


Varlamov > Ullmark > Hutton

 

[Buff15Sabres]

I have watched the replay several times... there is no surprise on that shot at all.

• Dahlin, reaches forward (which he shouldn't have) in the neutral zone (was clearly thinking turnover)
• Slips slightly on recovery
• Shades to centre of ice to give Pageau one option
• Recovers almost entirely... to the point where there was one option

Ullmark gets beat. I don't mind our offensive young D thinking about making a play. Especially when he is clearly able to recover to give up a shot on a bad angle that 98% of the time is a save. I mean, let's have the worlds most boring team and get on an offensive D about shading to the centre of the ice instead of erasing a play at the top of the circle (where offensive player goes to next option and we have a one on one for possession). He took a shot from relatively deep given the angle he was on.

Interesting that we can watch the same play and come away with such a different take on it.

I would've preferred to see Dahlin actually commit to stopping the initial pass (and miss) then what he ended up doing. He was so slow and out of position the Sabres would've been better off with Dahlin not even on the ice that play (Miller looked to be in position to stop Paguea).

I'm not really sure how Dahlin "recovers almost entirely". It's a binary option.... you either recover or you don't. Dahlin didn't slow Paguea down, and didn't effect the shot. There's no "recovery" there at all. The shot wasn't from the most dangerous angle, but it was only a few feet from the faceoff dot. It was still fairly dangerous, and Ullmark wasn't in perfect position for it because his defenseman couldn't make a routine play.

 

[brian_griffin]

Great GBU title. Says it all. No need to comment!

Yeah, for President's Day, Sabres opened the game solidly like Lincoln at Gettysburg, observed the second like Lincoln on the parapet of Fort Stevens during the attack on Washington, D.C., and finished the 3rd as Lincoln did watching Our American Cousin at Ford's Theatre.

 

[Fezzy126]

I am not sarcastic and I disagree with you.


But this is a completely different situation, where the Islanders attack was developing from the central zone, Dahlin slipped a little on the blue line and was not far from Pageaut, he did not see what was behind him and from the side, perhaps he could have played better in this moment, but this the goal of the goalie, he must take puck such.


Varlamov > Ullmark > Hutton

Look, it's one play and I don't really care to rehash much more, but Eichel had a near identical entry immediately preceding the goal. Leddy quickly closes him off with his angle, stick position prevents a cut to the middle, before eventually pinching him off at the boards. The Isles immediately gain possession and turn the other way where...

For some reason Dahlin leans inside and does a backwards cross-over to the inside of the ice. This is bad technique and it needs to be fixed. It's also a 2 on 3, there's no reason to look inside, his assignment was obvious from the beginning of the play. Bad angle. Bad read. Bad technique. I'm not trying to bag on Dahlin, I did that enough earlier in the season and he has improved as the season has gone on.

These observations have nothing to do with Ullmark - I'd like that shot to be saved. But when a defenseman allows an entry wide with this kind of speed nothing good can happen. You could have a bad angle goal, a bad angle shot with a rebound, a wrap around attempt, or the start of an in-zone cycle. Just holding a player to the outside is not a good play, especially when the numbers are in your favor.

 

[THUNDERBURST]

Look, it's one play and I don't really care to rehash much more, but Eichel had a near identical entry immediately preceding the goal. Leddy quickly closes him off with his angle, stick position prevents a cut to the middle, before eventually pinching him off at the boards. The Isles immediately gain possession and turn the other way where...

View attachment 396934


For some reason Dahlin leans inside and does a backwards cross-over to the inside of the ice. This is bad technique and it needs to be fixed. It's also a 2 on 3, there's no reason to look inside, his assignment was obvious from the beginning of the play. Bad angle. Bad read. Bad technique. I'm not trying to bag on Dahlin, I did that enough earlier in the season and he has improved as the season has gone on.

View attachment 396932

These observations have nothing to do with Ullmark - I'd like that shot to be saved. But when a defenseman allows an entry wide with this kind of speed nothing good can happen. You could have a bad angle goal, a bad angle shot with a rebound, a wrap around attempt, or the start of an in-zone cycle. Just holding a player to the outside is not a good play, especially when the numbers are in your favor.

Well, so I said that he slipped and lost speed, but Pageau shot a little from wing and Ullmark need to help out.

 

[BFLO]

No one is saying Dahlin is blameless. But this was a poor angle shot that is saved nearly every time by starting caliber NHL goalies.

Look at :08 in the replay. Dahlin is at center ice and is about to step up into the passing lane but Leddy passes it a split second before Dahlin jumps up.

Dahlin is now out of position to defend Pageau and is a step behind. He still manages to force Pags to the outside and force a poor angle shot with a near certainty of it being saved.

Except Ullmark lets it in.

Ullmark inexplicably leans forward and opens up the top of the net.

That shot gets taken 1,000 times every NHL season and its usually saved 1,000 times. This year 999.

If it was Hutton in net no one would be defending this goal, we'd be out with pitchforks and torches calling for his head.

 

[THUNDERBURST]

No one is saying Dahlin is blameless. But this was a poor angle shot that is saved nearly every time by starting caliber NHL goalies.

Look at :08 in the replay. Dahlin is at center ice and is about to step up into the passing lane but Leddy passes it a split second before Dahlin jumps up.

Dahlin is now out of position to defend Pageau and is a step behind. He still manages to force Pags to the outside and force a poor angle shot with a near certainty of it being saved.

Except Ullmark lets it in.

Ullmark inexplicably leans forward and opens up the top of the net.

That shot gets taken 1,000 times every NHL season and its usually saved 1,000 times. This year 999.

If it was Hutton in net no one would be defending this goal, we'd be out with pitchforks and torches calling for his head.

Fact

 

[Ygo]

No one is saying Dahlin is blameless. But this was a poor angle shot that is saved nearly every time by starting caliber NHL goalies.

Look at :08 in the replay. Dahlin is at center ice and is about to step up into the passing lane but Leddy passes it a split second before Dahlin jumps up.

Dahlin is now out of position to defend Pageau and is a step behind. He still manages to force Pags to the outside and force a poor angle shot with a near certainty of it being saved.

Except Ullmark lets it in.

Ullmark inexplicably leans forward and opens up the top of the net.

That shot gets taken 1,000 times every NHL season and its usually saved 1,000 times. This year 999.

If it was Hutton in net no one would be defending this goal, we'd be out with pitchforks and torches calling for his head.

This!!!

Sportsnet posted a study on shot quality tracking 33,000 shots. This shot (marked on the graphic) is almost always saved. On top of that, there was no screen and no pass to set this up. Dahlin got caught in between playing the pass and then slipped (all bad things and acknowledged), but, he keeps his guy outside for a bad shot. That is what you want him to do after the mistake. He took his mistake and removed the danger.

 

[OkimLom]

No one is saying Dahlin is blameless. But this was a poor angle shot that is saved nearly every time by starting caliber NHL goalies.

Look at :08 in the replay. Dahlin is at center ice and is about to step up into the passing lane but Leddy passes it a split second before Dahlin jumps up.

Dahlin is now out of position to defend Pageau and is a step behind. He still manages to force Pags to the outside and force a poor angle shot with a near certainty of it being saved.

Except Ullmark lets it in.

Ullmark inexplicably leans forward and opens up the top of the net.

That shot gets taken 1,000 times every NHL season and its usually saved 1,000 times. This year 999.

If it was Hutton in net no one would be defending this goal, we'd be out with pitchforks and torches calling for his head.

While Ullmark has his amount of blame on the play, Dahlin's lack of doing his job correctly lead directly to the shot. If that play is 100% defended correctly the puck is in the corner or Pageau is plastered on the boards. If the play is even played 20% correctly (% noted for hyperbole), the puck is shot into the crowd after Dahlin gets his stick in the way of the shot.

As I said in the GDT, Dahlin was to blame for 90%, Ullmark was at 10% at fault.

 

[Sabreality]

While Ullmark has his amount of blame on the play, Dahlin's lack of doing his job correctly lead directly to the shot. If that play is 100% defended correctly the puck is in the corner or Pageau is plastered on the boards. If the play is even played 20% correctly (% noted for hyperbole), the puck is shot into the crowd after Dahlin gets his stick in the way of the shot.

As I said in the GDT, Dahlin was to blame for 90%, Ullmark was at 10% at fault.

you have the percentages flipped

 

[OkimLom]

you have the percentages flipped

I don't. As someone that plays defense, that is a play that should be tagged on the defenseman. No defenseman should get little blame for the outcome of that play. Yes, Ullmark should played it better, but there's no reason why Pageau should've got a shot off in the first place.

 

[Sabre the Win]

I don't see how its only 10% Ullmark's fault.. How long have these goalies been playing behind Buffalo's defense? and they're still relying on them to correctly make the play? So much so that they can be careless about positioning? If I was a Sabres goalie I would constantly feel I need to be doing the defenses job as well as my own and pray I don't leave with PTSD.

 

[THUNDERBURST]

Should have followed Markstrom and not Hall

 

[Zman5778]

This!!!

Sportsnet posted a study on shot quality tracking 33,000 shots. This shot (marked on the graphic) is almost always saved. On top of that, there was no screen and no pass to set this up. Dahlin got caught in between playing the pass and then slipped (all bad things and acknowledged), but, he keeps his guy outside for a bad shot. That is what you want him to do after the mistake. He took his mistake and removed the danger.
View attachment 396964

I'd be willing to bet that of the shots taken where JGP took his and score, 90% of them deflect in off a defender.

 

[Zman5778]

While Ullmark has his amount of blame on the play, Dahlin's lack of doing his job correctly lead directly to the shot. If that play is 100% defended correctly the puck is in the corner or Pageau is plastered on the boards. If the play is even played 20% correctly (% noted for hyperbole), the puck is shot into the crowd after Dahlin gets his stick in the way of the shot.

As I said in the GDT, Dahlin was to blame for 90%, Ullmark was at 10% at fault.

I've also played my fair share of defense. In this specific instance, Dahlin slips at the blue line but still gives JGP only one option -- shoot from a supremely sub-optimal location. If Dahlin doesn't slip....he probably does exactly what you say. Fact is, he slips and takes him ever so slightly out of optimal location.

There are two things for JGP to do -- go behind the net (where Dahlin likely catches up and the play ends) or shoot. He shoots....Ullmark isn't properly hugging the post and it goes in. That said, where JGP shot it is LITERALLY the only place he can shoot it where it goes in.

It's partially Dahlin's fault, partially Ullmark's fault and partially one helluva seeing eye shot.

 

[toomuchsauce]

Look, it's one play and I don't really care to rehash much more, but Eichel had a near identical entry immediately preceding the goal. Leddy quickly closes him off with his angle, stick position prevents a cut to the middle, before eventually pinching him off at the boards. The Isles immediately gain possession and turn the other way where...

View attachment 396934


For some reason Dahlin leans inside and does a backwards cross-over to the inside of the ice. This is bad technique and it needs to be fixed. It's also a 2 on 3, there's no reason to look inside, his assignment was obvious from the beginning of the play. Bad angle. Bad read. Bad technique. I'm not trying to bag on Dahlin, I did that enough earlier in the season and he has improved as the season has gone on.

View attachment 396932

These observations have nothing to do with Ullmark - I'd like that shot to be saved. But when a defenseman allows an entry wide with this kind of speed nothing good can happen. You could have a bad angle goal, a bad angle shot with a rebound, a wrap around attempt, or the start of an in-zone cycle. Just holding a player to the outside is not a good play, especially when the numbers are in your favor.

This is a great post.

If we pretend that the defenseman on this play is Ristolainen, I bet people would be all over him about how it's a perfect example of why he's bad, his CF% is terrible, etc. - because he allows an uncontested zone entry and shot on goal against, and yeah it should have been saved, but that's the point defending better through nz and at the blue line.

I don't understand why people are having such a hard time with this concept. Two things can be true at once: Dahlin made a bad play; Ullmark should have stopped the shot. Both true. That's how hockey goes.

There could be a good conversation to be had about this play, actually, because all Sabres defensemen tend to do this a lot, and it's worth questioning why. Do the Sabres not want their defenseman to be aggressive at the blue line?

 

[joshjull]

I get some posters would like to see Dahlin play that better. I would as well. But the xG rate of the shot Pageau took is 2%. Ullmark has to make that save.

I know we like to beat up our d-core and our team defense every time we get scored on. I do it myself. But we’re currently best in the NHL with best/lowest scoring chances against/60mins and the 11th best/lowest High danger chances against/60mins. Our goalies have a very easy workload yet they’re only 23rd in 5v5 save%.

I expect team defenses and individual dmen to make mistakes. But we happen to make a lot less than most teams do. Yet the perception on here seems to be that its a huge problem.

The problem is squarely with the goalies and the soft goals they keep giving up. Symbolic of that is the soft goal Ullmark gave up to Pageau. To me focusing so much on Dahlin is missing the forest for the trees

 

[OkimLom]

I've also played my fair share of defense. In this specific instance, Dahlin slips at the blue line but still gives JGP only one option -- shoot from a supremely sub-optimal location. If Dahlin doesn't slip....he probably does exactly what you say. Fact is, he slips and takes him ever so slightly out of optimal location.

There are two things for JGP to do -- go behind the net (where Dahlin likely catches up and the play ends) or shoot. He shoots....Ullmark isn't properly hugging the post and it goes in. That said, where JGP shot it is LITERALLY the only place he can shoot it where it goes in.

It's partially Dahlin's fault, partially Ullmark's fault and partially one helluva seeing eye shot.

Yes, he slipped, but he still had an angle and positioning where he could've utilized his stick to disrupt or force Pageau to use body positioning to change the angle he may have on the play.

 

[The Red Helmet]

This is a great post.

If we pretend that the defenseman on this play is Ristolainen, I bet people would be all over him about how it's a perfect example of why he's bad, his CF% is terrible, etc. - because he allows an uncontested zone entry and shot on goal against, and yeah it should have been saved, but that's the point defending better through nz and at the blue line.

I don't understand why people are having such a hard time with this concept. Two things can be true at once: Dahlin made a bad play; Ullmark should have stopped the shot. Both true. That's how hockey goes.

There could be a good conversation to be had about this play, actually, because all Sabres defensemen tend to do this a lot, and it's worth questioning why. Do the Sabres not want their defenseman to be aggressive at the blue line?

So maybe it's time to get a real coach. Everyone is way too comfortable in that locker room. There needs to be some friction and Ralph just wants to be everyone's friend.

 

[EmeraldCitySabre]

you have the percentages flipped

Absolutely!

Dahlin made a mistake, but Ullmark was in perfect position to make that save and it sailed over his shoulder, he didn't even really move, it was an extremely weak goal that as stated above, is saved 98% of the time. If he's gonna let a goal in every time his dmen make a mistake, his save percentage is gonna plummet.

 

[littletonhockeycoach]

Yeah, for President's Day, Sabres opened the game solidly like Lincoln at Gettysburg, observed the second like Lincoln on the parapet of Fort Stevens during the attack on Washington, D.C., and finished the 3rd as Lincoln did watching Our American Cousin at Ford's Theatre.

I wonder how many here under 30 know what you are talking about. LOL.

 

[littletonhockeycoach]

I get some posters would like to see Dahlin play that better. I would as well. But the xG rate of the shot Pageau took is 2%. Ullmark has to make that save.

I know we like to beat up our d-core and our team defense every time we get scored on. I do it myself. But we’re currently best in the NHL with best/lowest scoring chances against/60mins and the 11th best/lowest High danger chances against/60mins. Our goalies have a very easy workload yet they’re only 23rd in 5v5 save%.

I expect team defenses and individual dmen to make mistakes. But we happen to make a lot less than most teams do. Yet the perception on here seems to be that its a huge problem.

The problem is squarely with the goalies and the soft goals they keep giving up. Symbolic of that is the soft goal Ullmark gave up to Pageau. To me focusing so much on Dahlin is missing the forest for the trees

Thank you! It's amazing how little credit we tend to give the opponent shooters accuracy. Pageau had a pretty nice snipe there. I'll bet he even had both of his eyes open on the play.