Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Yet Again

[Dekes For Days]

Without rattling off a hundred reasons - highlighting the most humerous one that a single player can cover 90% of the disparity while also having teammates on the same list - the point is that those stats are beyond useless. The focus needs to be on the team anyway - their build and strategy. If our stars were all at the top of that list - and it somehow mattered - our extensive immediate failures would still be the same problem. We have four eight figure forwards - we're designed to decisively overwhelm the opposition with offensive star power (kind of like McD Sid Mack), but we've done the exact opposite. Boo hoo'ing that the goalies have been too good (kind of like Helly) isn't serious.

Tre has built the strongest ship to make them work, and we're going to get another shot no matter what, so let's see that play out. But otherwise the program needs a wrecking ball. Regardless of how amazing all of our stars might be, because they would be the problem.

He doesn't cover 90% of the disparity, and isolating the biggest possible outlier really just shows how weak your argument is. The stats aren't useless. You just wish they were. There is no benefit to ignoring what's happened. That's how you end up blaming all the wrong things, like the build or the stars, and destroying the most effective parts of your team.

Tre has built the weakest version of this ship, but it can still win, in part because of the things you want to destroy. Abnormal exexperiences don't last forever, though I have no doubt that when we do have success, you'll attribute it to all of the wrong things.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Can you show me the stats for rush chances generated?

According to NaturalStatTrick, Bobrovsky faced 3.25 rush chances/60 against Boston, 1.71 against Toronto, 1.68 against Carolina, and 1.34 against Vegas. Even according to your chart, Carolina is one of the most dump and chase, forecheck heavy teams, but they are who Bobrovsky did best against. And there's really no correlation between where teams place on that chart, and how well they do in the playoffs or the type of goaltending quality they face.

Fair enough, those goalies (Rask, Price, Korpi) were phenomenal against most teams. My main argument was probably flawed, as I thought you were alluding to us constantly going up against elite goaltending each year, but now see I missed where you stated "4 out of 9 series"; I can support that.

It wasn't my intent to "attack" you, I honestly thought you were trying to re-frame the conversation to suit your statistics vs. the ones I posted. I still believe that for whatever reason our main guys seem to fail against top tier goaltending more than other teams elite players (maybe I'm biased due to watching them so much). Apologies if my response came across as an "attack", I try to be objective and was feeling like you were intentionally misleading.

I never stated it was against an individual either (34+16), and I've stated multiple times I think Marner is a fantastic player. When you are two of the highest paid RFAs in the league, it comes with a certain responsibility to come through in the clutch. I think our core 4 have failed to get it done each playoff, usually for different reasons. There have been times I even thought they deserved the series win (Tampa) but got the short end of the stick on puck luck.

At the end of the day Dekes, I just want to watch the team I've cheered for over 4 decades go deep. There is nothing like watching a team you hold dear go on a run. If the boys get it done this year I'll be the head cheerleader in the squad. I think the Leafs should be in a "wait and see" mode right now though, as they have zero leverage. I rather slightly overpay him if we go to the conference finals vs. slightly overpay him now with the hope we do.

As always Dekes, thanks for the debate. I appreciate the effort you put in, and just like a few months ago I leave a little more informed. That doesn't necessarily mean I agree with you, but I do respect the effort you consistently put in.

Fair enough. Your initial question was reasonable and I think it's good to challenge assertions, and I think when we stick to the hockey and not each other, we both leave better informed. We're not always going to agree, but we ultimately want the same thing, and I'm glad we could find some common ground. I would even agree that there is a certain responsibility to come through in "clutch" moments and break through. I just think people lose sight of what's happening and why and to what extent, and while I think we all feel the frustration, I don't think it leads everybody to the most productive path forward. Hopefully we get that run this year, and we can put this kind of stuff behind us.

 

[ULF_55]

Do players score more, less, same, in subsequent rounds.

Honest question; Doesn't the fact that these guys have a lower PPG inflate goalies SV%, and vica versa? Since McDavid and Drai are so good at scoring, it stands to reason the goalies facing them would have a lower SV%, no?

It would be interesting to see if subsequent rounds change these stats.

Matthews and marner have played around 55-57 playoff games, and only 5 have been in the 2nd. round.

Matthews and marner 8 times in the playoffs and 1 past the first round.

McDavid and Draisaitl 6 times in the playoffs and 4 times past the first round.

MacKinnon 8 times in the playoffs and 5 times past the first round.
Rantanen 7 times in the playoffs and 5 times past the first round.


Does scoring get easier in subsequent rounds?

 

[Zybalto]

You just described getting value contract.
Point, Kuch, Hedman, Stamkos made 4-5mil less than our top 4 players in AM, JT, MM and Reilly.

No doubt Kap and AJ were bad contracts but when compare to Point, Kuch, Barkov, Tkachuk, McD, Drai, Makar, our 10.5mil plus boys don’t match up well either.

You can’t just apply the logic if Coleman and Goodrow were great value contracts and completely ignore AM, JT and MM’s contracts are underperforming compare to others similar contracts.

Don’t remember was it this thread or another thread where I said having 50mil on five players on the Leafs might work if those five are McD, Barkov, Makar, Mack and Kuch.

Won’t you agree having those 5 instead of our 5 might had already deliver a Cup or more to the Leafs the past 6 yrs if the rest of the rosters are the same. Or at the very least, would had beaten guys like Price, Swayman, Vas, or those BJs goalies and Bob more then just ONE time in a series over the past 6 yrs.

Let me make this a defense of Matthews, Marner and Rielly because they seem to get the most scrutiny for some reason. Lets look over the 3 years:


Battle of the 8 forwards:
Goals per game (rank out of the 121 forwards with at least 20 games played):
2. Drai
9. McDavid
16. Matthews
26. Tkachuk
40. Point
43. Barkov
46. Kucherov
52. Marner

Points per game (rank out of the 121 forwards with at least 20 games played):
1. McDavid
2. Drai
6. Kucherov
9. Matthews
11. Marner (tie)
11. Tkachuk (tie)
26: Barkov
36. Point

5v5 Goal differential (rank out of the 96 forwards with 280+ 5v5 minutes):
8. Marner
10. McDavid
16. Barkov
18. Kucherov
25. Matthews
33: Tkachuk
38. Draisaitl
48. Point

McDavid is the only guy here on another level in all facets of the game. Drai is there with him offensively but he falls off once the time and space disappear and complete game comes into the picture. Matthews, despite his injury issues, is very well rounded and Marner's place as one of the best defensive wingers in the playoffs makes up for his lack of goal scoring (which is pretty close to the others like Kucherov) Both are killed by poor PP numbers.

Battle of the 4 D:

Goals per game (rank out of the 61 dmen with at least 20 games played):
2. Rielly
3. Bouchard
12. Hedman
27. Ekblad

Points per game (rank out of the 61 dmen with at least 20 games played):
2. Bouchard
4. Hedman
5. Rielly
24. Ekblad

Goal differential: (rank out of the 46 dmen with at 400+ 5v5 minutes):
3. Rielly
8. Hedman
18. Bouchard
23. Ekblad

Rielly and Hedman really are the complete package in the playoffs. 2 top 5 D IMO. Bouchard is an offensive dynamo thats up there and Ekblad is just OK in tough minutes.


Take away Rielly, Marner and Matthews and look at what happens to this team 5v5 over the last 3 playoffs:

Leafs 5v5 without Marner/Matthews/Rielly
Goals for/60: 1.23
Goals against/60: 2.87
GF%: 30.03

Compared to:

Edmonton 5v5 without Drai/McDavid/Bouchard
Goals for/60: 1.42
Goals against/60: 2.48
GF%: 36.51

Florida 5v5 without Barkov/Tkachuk/Ekblad:
Goals for/60: 1.53
Goals against/60: 2.44
GF%: 38.50

Tampa 5v5 without Point/Kucherov/Hedman:
Goals for/60: 1.89
Goals against/60: 2.52
GF%: 42.75


It may not seem like a lot but that is a pretty massive difference. Even if the Oilers feel like a somewhat comparable in that depth and goaltending drags them down but the Leafs just have even worse depth and goaltending. That level of crap would kill almost any team. If the Leafs could somehow muster a great powerplay, they could overcome it like the Oilers too.

 

[Gabriel426]

Let me make this a defense of Matthews, Marner and Rielly because they seem to get the most scrutiny for some reason. Lets look over the 3 years:


Battle of the 8 forwards:
Goals per game (rank out of the 121 forwards with at least 20 games played):
2. Drai
9. McDavid
16. Matthews
26. Tkachuk
40. Point
43. Barkov
46. Kucherov
52. Marner

Points per game (rank out of the 121 forwards with at least 20 games played):
1. McDavid
2. Drai
6. Kucherov
9. Matthews
11. Marner (tie)
11. Tkachuk (tie)
26: Barkov
36. Point

5v5 Goal differential (rank out of the 96 forwards with 280+ 5v5 minutes):
8. Marner
10. McDavid
16. Barkov
18. Kucherov
25. Matthews
33: Tkachuk
38. Draisaitl
48. Point

McDavid is the only guy here on another level in all facets of the game. Drai is there with him offensively but he falls off once the time and space disappear and complete game comes into the picture. Matthews, despite his injury issues, is very well rounded and Marner's place as one of the best defensive wingers in the playoffs makes up for his lack of goal scoring (which is pretty close to the others like Kucherov) Both are killed by poor PP numbers.

Battle of the 4 D:

Goals per game (rank out of the 61 dmen with at least 20 games played):
2. Rielly
3. Bouchard
12. Hedman
27. Ekblad

Points per game (rank out of the 61 dmen with at least 20 games played):
2. Bouchard
4. Hedman
5. Rielly
24. Ekblad

Goal differential: (rank out of the 46 dmen with at 400+ 5v5 minutes):
3. Rielly
8. Hedman
18. Bouchard
23. Ekblad

Rielly and Hedman really are the complete package in the playoffs. 2 top 5 D IMO. Bouchard is an offensive dynamo thats up there and Ekblad is just OK in tough minutes.


Take away Rielly, Marner and Matthews and look at what happens to this team 5v5 over the last 3 playoffs:

Leafs 5v5 without Marner/Matthews/Rielly
Goals for/60: 1.23
Goals against/60: 2.87
GF%: 30.03

Compared to:

Edmonton 5v5 without Drai/McDavid/Bouchard
Goals for/60: 1.42
Goals against/60: 2.48
GF%: 36.51

Florida 5v5 without Barkov/Tkachuk/Ekblad:
Goals for/60: 1.53
Goals against/60: 2.44
GF%: 38.50

Tampa 5v5 without Point/Kucherov/Hedman:
Goals for/60: 1.89
Goals against/60: 2.52
GF%: 42.75


It may not seem like a lot but that is a pretty massive difference. Even if the Oilers feel like a somewhat comparable in that depth and goaltending drags them down but the Leafs just have even worse depth and goaltending. That level of crap would kill almost any team. If the Leafs could somehow muster a great powerplay, they could overcome it like the Oilers too.

Who plays on the PP for the Leafs?

Part of the reason why Leafs depth sucks are bc they have THREE guys who makes over 10.5mil who can’t perform in playoffs. Funny you mentioned McD on another level while he is also the only other player making 10.5mil on the list you provided.
While the rest of them all makes at least 1.3mil less than AM, MM and JT.
You stated Goodrow and Coleman were great contracts and all I did was used your logic and apply to AM, MM and JT, and stated that their contracts are not so good compared to others making 10.5mil or more and you just proved that by providing a list of players who made less than them and perform at their level.

Ask any GMs and coaches and I am 100% sure they would rather have McD, Mack, Makar, Kuch and Barkov instead of our five with the same cap hit.

Our top guys had not been good in playoffs, they need to be better and that’s also go to all other players on the Leafs too. But the Core 5 are supposedly the leaders, and leaders need accountability. They need to take the accountability and takes it upon themselves to perform and lead or else what’s the point of having them if they continue to choke.
But then again, you seem like someone who thinks they are doing great for just making the playoffs and it is all other players, coaches, MGT that dropped the ball instead of our top guys. Still remembered how you try to defend AM and MM in the Habs series where it was just bad luck they couldn’t score and how Price only stop the puck when they were on the ice but would let others score on him.

They are chokers but the good thing is, this all can change this playoffs.

 

[leafs in five]

Ask any GMs and coaches and I am 100% sure they would rather have McD, Mack, Makar, Kuch and Barkov instead of our five with the same cap hit.

5 guys who have played for the same team their entire careers

 

[leafs in five]

I guess you never know unless you ask (another team whether they wish to exchange their best players for ours)

 

[Dekes For Days]

Do players score more, less, same, in subsequent rounds.

When I looked into this, there wasn't any significant difference between rounds. The only time there was a notable difference in scoring levels was game 7s, which tended to be lower scoring.

 

[Mess]

Do players score more, less, same, in subsequent rounds.


It would be interesting to see if subsequent rounds change these stats.

Matthews and marner have played around 55-57 playoff games, and only 5 have been in the 2nd. round.

Matthews and marner 8 times in the playoffs and 1 past the first round.

McDavid and Draisaitl 6 times in the playoffs and 4 times past the first round.

MacKinnon 8 times in the playoffs and 5 times past the first round.
Rantanen 7 times in the playoffs and 5 times past the first round.


Does scoring get easier in subsequent rounds?

Scoring doesn't get easier but clutch playoff players and performers get better.

You would thing having 4 of the top 12 highest paid players in the game all on 1 team would produce >> results, yet they have among the worst playoff results as players and a team.

The secret to success may be found in the depth of the team around its stars, due to better cap management, because its a TEAM sport, and you're only as strong as your weakest link not your strongest.

Your stars need to be your stars to succeed, but your depth often helps you win..

PS. Edmonton's Zach Hyman scored 16 playoff goals in last years playoffs alone > Matthews, Marner and Nylander combined and help McDavid and Draisaitl advance past the first round,

 

[thewave]

Scoring doesn't get easier but clutch playoff players and performers get better.

You would thing having 4 of the top 12 highest paid players in the game all on 1 team would produce >> results, yet they have among the worst playoff results as players and a team.

The secret to success may be found in the depth of the team around its stars, due to better cap management, because its a TEAM sport, and you're only as strong as your weakest link not your strongest.

Defense is the weakest link. They don't perform and it makes the team easy to read. 1 injured C, 2 wingers and a C that's get up there in age coupled with a bunch of mediocrity or worse.

 

[notbias]

Do players score more, less, same, in subsequent rounds.


It would be interesting to see if subsequent rounds change these stats.

Matthews and marner have played around 55-57 playoff games, and only 5 have been in the 2nd. round.

Matthews and marner 8 times in the playoffs and 1 past the first round.

McDavid and Draisaitl 6 times in the playoffs and 4 times past the first round.

MacKinnon 8 times in the playoffs and 5 times past the first round.
Rantanen 7 times in the playoffs and 5 times past the first round.


Does scoring get easier in subsequent rounds?

Why don't you check based on who they are facing?

I am sure most players' PPG goes down against Vasi for example.

It seems weird to check based on rounds and not by the team.

Scoring doesn't get easier but clutch playoff players and performers get better.

You would thing having 4 of the top 12 highest paid players in the game all on 1 team would produce >> results, yet they have among the worst playoff results as players and a team.

The secret to success may be found in the depth of the team around its stars, due to better cap management, because its a TEAM sport, and you're only as strong as your weakest link not your strongest.

Your stars need to be your stars to succeed, but your depth often helps you win..

PS. Edmonton's Zach Hyman scored 16 playoff goals in last years playoffs alone > Matthews, Marner and Nylander combined and help McDavid and Draisaitl advance past the first round,

Too bad Hyman couldn't do that too... maybe the best player in the world helped him.

 

[ULF_55]

Why don't you check based on who they are facing?

I am sure the shooter's sh% went down against Vasi for example.

It seems weird to check based on rounds and not by the team.

Do you think the teams that make it past the first round are better than the teams that lost in the first round?

 

[notbias]

Do you think the teams that make it past the first round are better than the teams that lost in the first round?

Do you think all teams are built equally?

Colorado won the cup with .900 goaltending, were they a strong defensive team with good goaltending or did they outscore their problems?

I don't see any argument for using the rounds instead of the individual teams.

 

[Gabriel426]

5 guys who have played for the same team their entire careers

How does that relate to what I wrote

 

[francis246]

How does that relate to what I wrote

I think it's because you made an apples to oranges comparison. No shit, any GM would choose the best players in the world over our guys. But those players you named do not play together, so there would never be a realistic opportunity for GM's to choose them. so it diminishes your argument because its not even a realistic possibility.

if you said any GM would prefer edmonton's core to ours, that would make more sense and its a direct comparison.