Mitch Marner or Johnny Gaudreau

[Apotheosis]

Also to add on, JG and Marner both elevate their teammates, not one or the other. I would actually say overall, JG's line is better simply because it doesn't have a linemate as bad as Hyman. Hyman has 15 points, and like 5 of those 15 (ONE THIRD) of his points are empty netters, meanwhile he has a top 5 point getter in the NHL currently in Marner and his centre is on pace to smash his career high in goals. Yet he has feasibly produced 10 points 5v5 playing with that? Same reason why Matthews has been above PPG ever since Hyman was gone off his line. Hyman kills offence on any line he plays for himself. Put an even average winger on that line offensively, and Marner is probably at 55-60 points right now. Watch a single game that Hyman plays and you'll see.

 

[Haatley]

Also to add on, JG and Marner both elevate their teammates, not one or the other. I would actually say overall, JG's line is better simply because it doesn't have a linemate as bad as Hyman. Hyman has 15 points, and like 5 of those 15 (ONE THIRD) of his points are empty netters, meanwhile he has a top 5 point getter in the NHL currently in Marner and his centre is on pace to smash his career high in goals. Yet he has feasibly produced 10 points 5v5 playing with that? Same reason why Matthews has been above PPG ever since Hyman was gone off his line. Hyman kills offence on any line he plays for himself. Put an even average winger on that line offensively, and Marner is probably at 55-60 points right now. Watch a single game that Hyman plays and you'll see.

So if Marner elevates linemates so much, why does Hyman struggle to produce?
Take a look at Lindholm's career bests and compare them to his production with Gaudreau.

 

[Apotheosis]

Goal scoring also can't be held against Marner tbh. There is no difference between the two. Marner is what, .26 GPG? Gaudreau is .27. No difference.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

So if Marner elevates linemates so much, why does Hyman struggle to produce?
Take a look at Lindholm's career bests and compare them to his production with Gaudreau.

Hyman struggles to produce because he's awful offensively. Play him with regular players as opposed to superstars and he'd look really bad

 

[Apotheosis]

So if Marner elevates linemates so much, why does Hyman struggle to produce?
Take a look at Lindholm's career bests and compare them to his production with Gaudreau.

Because Hyman is literally that much of a black hole offensively. Go look at ADV stats from his first two years with Matthews. In Matthews rookie season, he and McDavid led the league in HDCF. Hyman converted on SEVEN PERCENT of the high danger chances afforded for him. If he converted at even league average (which is roughly 23 percent), Matthews would have had a PPG rookie season. That's how much of a black hole he is.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

the sample size is what we have, but the effects are very visible for Marner the same way they are for Gaudreau, moreso in a small sample actually which is likely to be less exaggerated in a larger sample as it is with Gaudreau

on the Lindholm front, if Gaudreau was the sole source of his production why haven't we seen that kind of production with previous players in that position, and how did he convince an NHL team that he was worth a top 5 pick? There's no doubt that Gaudreau has an effect, but to just solely attribute that to Gaudreau is baselessly buying into a narrative that you want to be true. Monahan's numbers are up this year despite years of playing with Gaudreau, obviously he's better with Gaudreau over the long haul but he's better than he's been this year as well

So it's ok to just say "I like Gaudreau" without all the false narrative about about him having a greater effect on worse linemates. Those things are just empirically untrue

I'm talking about Monahan's 5v5 production with and without Gaudreau over the past 5 years - a tremendous sample size. How do you explain the significant difference between them?

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Marner will win this due to Leaf fan numbers compared to Flames. Gaudreau is a better player, Marner is very closely behind him.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Gaudreau by a small but clear margin.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I'm talking about Monahan's 5v5 production with and without Gaudreau over the past 5 years - a tremendous sample size. How do you explain the significant difference between them?

I agree that Gaudreau has a very positive effect on his linemates, that's noted multiple times in the post you just quoted. What that doesn't explain is the jump in year over year production for that most common linemate where Gaudreau's presence is not a variable, which means there's more factors than the Gaudreau factor, the Lindholm factor might be part of the explanation

That same kind of effect is noticeable with Marner where his linemates are significantly better with him, including Tavares. Marner also comes with the benefit of 4 more years of prime, having a greater impact than Gaudreau at the same age which may point to a higher projected ceiling, and being a significantly better player when his team doesn't have the puck. He probably also comes with a 30-35% higher price tag for the 3 years following this one, and a higher AAV for the remainder of their careers by a much smaller than 30-35% margin

 

[jvcjdudu jcycyxjene]

I'm gonna go with "John Hockey" here

 

[Haatley]

Because Hyman is literally that much of a black hole offensively. Go look at ADV stats from his first two years with Matthews. In Matthews rookie season, he and McDavid led the league in HDCF. Hyman converted on SEVEN PERCENT of the high danger chances afforded for him. If he converted at even league average (which is roughly 23 percent), Matthews would have had a PPG rookie season. That's how much of a black hole he is.

Hyman is actually on pace for less points thisyear than last when he didn't regularly play with Marner. But OK.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Goal scoring also can't be held against Marner tbh. There is no difference between the two. Marner is what, .26 GPG? Gaudreau is .27. No difference.

It might look like a bigger difference if you got the number right.

Gaudreau's GPG is .325, 24% higher than Marner's.

 

[X66]

This one is obviously Marner.

Gaudreau is great though, but Marner is already producing at a similar rate(WAY higher than Gaudreau at the same age) and he's better defensively.

For what it's worth, Marner was playing at a 90 point pace last year when he played with Kadri as well.

He's just an elite offensive player that will only get better as he continues to learn the league.

Crazy to think that at the same age in their careers(when they were both 21) Gaudreau was just getting started and Marner already has 100+ more points than him.

 

[tgo0]

Really tough choice, good poll.

A neutral fan, I went Marner because I think right now his upside is a bit higher but it’s close.

 

[Haatley]

This one is obviously Marner.

Gaudreau is great though, but Marner is already producing at a similar rate(WAY higher than Gaudreau at the same age) and he's better defensively.

For what it's worth, Marner was playing at a 90 point pace last year when he played with Kadri as well.

He's just an elite offensive player that will only get better as he continues to learn the league.

Crazy to think that at the same age in their careers(when they were both 21) Gaudreau was just getting started and Marner already has 100+ more points than him.

It was not Gaudreau's skill that kept him out of the NHL. He wqs 140 pounds when he was drafted.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

So if Marner elevates linemates so much, why does Hyman struggle to produce?
Take a look at Lindholm's career bests and compare them to his production with Gaudreau.

You're right, simply incredible that Marner can produce the way he has this year with a boat anchor on his left wing.

 

[Kamiccolo]

Marner will win this due to Leaf fan numbers compared to Flames. Gaudreau is a better player, Marner is very closely behind him.

Come on. At worst they are even and Marner is 4 years younger.

 

[Pi]

Without Gaudreau:
Monahan 5v5 p/60 1.46
Lindholm 5v5 p/60 1.40 (last 3 years in Carolina)

Those are 3rd line production levels...

But tell me how Tavares + who cares is worse than that...

Look at the age difference between Marner and Gaudreau. When Gaudreau was putting up 60 points at the same age, Marner is pacing for 110+.

They are similar players right now but I'd definitely take Marner over Gaudreau. I wouldn't blame Calgary fans for taking Gaudreau.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I agree that Gaudreau has a very positive effect on his linemates, that's noted multiple times in the post you just quoted. What that doesn't explain is the jump in year over year production for that most common linemate where Gaudreau's presence is not a variable, which means there's more factors than the Gaudreau factor, the Lindholm factor might be part of the explanation

That same kind of effect is noticeable with Marner where his linemates are significantly better with him, including Tavares. Marner also comes with the benefit of 4 more years of prime, having a greater impact than Gaudreau at the same age which may point to a higher projected ceiling, and being a significantly better player when his team doesn't have the puck. He probably also comes with a 30-35% higher price tag for the 3 years following this one, and a higher AAV for the remainder of their careers by a much smaller than 30-35% margin

My point was that Lindholm and Monahan have not proven to be anything more than 3rd line producers at 5v5 without Gaudreau. Lindholm's P/60 without Gaudreau this year is 1.53, not far from his 1.40 avg with Carolina. So it's fair to say both he and Monahan are able to produce ~1.5 p/60 at 5v5 without Gaudreau. That is 3rd line level production - he definitely does not have the linemate advantage.

 

[Randy Randerson]

My point was that Lindholm and Monahan have not proven to be anything more than 3rd line producers at 5v5 without Gaudreau. Lindholm's P/60 without Gaudreau this year is 1.53, not far from his 1.40 avg with Carolina. So it's fair to say both he and Monahan are able to produce ~1.5 p/60 at 5v5 without Gaudreau. That is 3rd line level production - he definitely does not have the linemate advantage.

there's measurement tools for quality of linemates, they are close but unanimously in favour of Gaudreau. If you're selling that two top 10 picks are 3rd liners without Gaudreau and we should value that above all the measurables, you can sell crazy elsewhere

Hyman is actually on pace for less points thisyear than last when he didn't regularly play with Marner. But OK.

measured against a season where he played with Matthews and Nylander, two players who also highly inflate the production of their linemates. Zach Hyman is a 4th line offensive talent, and if you believe that's not true, would you like to acquire him at a top 6 price? We'd be glad to sell him at that

 

[WetcoastOrca]

You're right, simply incredible that Marner can produce the way he has this year with a boat anchor on his left wing.

The most incredible thing is that Hyman somehow is used by Leaf fans as the excuse for every single player’s production.
Amazing that one player can play 60 minutes a game! His conditioning must be out of this world.

 

[Pi]

The most incredible thing is that Hyman somehow is used by Leaf fans as the excuse for every single player’s production.
Amazing that one player can play 60 minutes a game! His conditioning must be out of this world.

He played with Matthews last year and plays with Marner and Tavares this year? Is that hard to get? Don't discuss if you do not watch the team. It's very simple Orca.

Hyman's goals are pretty much all empty netters despite playing with Tavares and Marner. He's not a great offensive weapon. They are going to be even better without him in the lineup.

Love Hyman but he's a 3rd liner, at best.

 

[Isaac Nootin]

The most incredible thing is that Hyman somehow is used by Leaf fans as the excuse for every single player’s production.
Amazing that one player can play 60 minutes a game! His conditioning must be out of this world.

Got quotes/examples for this. Every player.

 

[Tkachuky]

Marner. He’s bigger, younger, and in his 3rd year is playing better than Gaudreau ever has. Marner at age 21 has room to grow, while Gaudreau is already a 6 year veteran at age 25, and is what he is.

He isn't playing better than Gaudreau. Wishful thinking.

I guess being older is the 'bad thing'

In that case Chucky > Marner.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

He played with Matthews last year and plays with Marner and Tavares this year? Is that hard to get? Don't discuss if you do not watch the team. It's very simple Orca.

Hyman's goals are pretty much all empty netters despite playing with Tavares and Marner. He's not a great offensive weapon. They are going to be even better without him in the lineup.

Love Hyman but he's a 3rd liner, at best.

Lol!
The Hyman excuse. This needs to become a meme. You guys crack me up!