Mitch Marner discussion

[Notsince67]

I like Dubas as a GM

You think he isnt overpaid then?

 

[Leafslet]

You think he isnt overpaid then?

hilarious

 

[Notsince67]

Most cup winners win the cup with bad contracts. Tampa had bad contracts. Just because I dont think marner is worrh 10.9 doesn’t mean I dislike Dubas as our GM. It doesn’t even mean I think moving Marner is the right move. It may be, or may not, I’m just not sure of that.

 

[ACC1224]

I should have specified better. Was responding to an assertion about the impossibility of a top dman trade for a winger

One for one, it's tough to see it happening.

 

[Leafslet]

Most cup winners win the cup with bad contracts. Tampa had bad contracts. Just because I dont think marner is worrh 10.9 doesn’t mean I dislike Dubas as our GM. It doesn’t even mean I think moving Marner is the right move. It may be, or may not, I’m just not sure of that.

I suppose you think Johnson’s a good cap number at 5 mil then?

 

[Dekes For Days]

The current core has failed repeatedly. I think that reflects on the core.
I don’t think exchanging a few bottom 6 players will make a significant difference.

That's a pretty inaccurate description of what's happened. The current core has not "failed repeatedly", and a lot more has been changed than "a few bottom 6 players".

We've had just one playoff with our current starting goalie.
We've had just two playoffs with our defense not sucking (only one with Brodie), and in both of those series, we lost our top matchup defenseman to injury.
We've had just two playoffs with Tavares, and did not have him in the most recent playoffs with the most similar version of this team to the current one.
Matthews, Marner, Nylander, now entering their primes, have grown quite a bit over the years.
Our 3rd line has been completely re-made, and the complimentary players in the top-6 have been changed.

We're vastly different from the team we were 5 years ago, and going into this playoffs, we'd be bringing a considerably different team than we saw even last year, where we outplayed, outscored, and barely lost to the team that rode their MVP goalie to the Cup finals.

The correlation between past playoff success and future playoff success is also massively exaggerated, even if we actually were remotely similar to our past versions. The miniscule margins by which versions of this team that featured quite a few different pieces lost past playoff series does not support that this current team is incapable of winning the cup. We're an excellent, well balanced team, that is good in all positions and game states.

 

[ACC1224]

I wouldnt rather not have him than have him at 10.9, but with Marner it’s a different scenario. Those aren’t the only two options, for Marner it is have him at that salary or the mystery box you get in return for him. I can’t say whether I’d rather have the mystery box since I don’t know what’s in it. (altho I have always wanted a boat)

Do i put marner only .5 over nylander? Hmm… hard to quantify it. I dont value marner’s offensive production more than .5 over nylanders, I would say that, but I do value a lot of marner’s game above nylander’s. Maybe high 8’s for Marner would be better. 8.8/8.9. But no, I don’t think he should be in the 9s with his deficiencies. namely inability to score, isnt a position of great value, doesn’t do well in big pressure moments, little ability to over-come when leaned on physically, wheras nylander succeeds in all those areas. Yea, no, actually, I’ve re-convinced myself, .5 over nylander’s real worth sounds about right.

I don’t really agree but all good.
Myself, no one gets me out of my seat more than Marner. Selfishly; that’s worth every penny he makes to me.
Funny had Dubas taken Marners initial ask none of this discussion happens.

 

[ULF_55]

That's a pretty inaccurate description of what's happened. The current core has not "failed repeatedly", and a lot more has been changed than "a few bottom 6 players".

We've had just one playoff with our current starting goalie.
We've had just two playoffs with our defense not sucking (only one with Brodie), and in both of those series, we lost our top matchup defenseman to injury.
We've had just two playoffs with Tavares, and did not have him in the most recent playoffs with the most similar version of this team to the current one.
Matthews, Marner, Nylander, now entering their primes, have grown quite a bit over the years.
Our 3rd line has been completely re-made, and the complimentary players in the top-6 have been changed.

We're vastly different from the team we were 5 years ago, and going into this playoffs, we'd be bringing a considerably different team than we saw even last year, where we outplayed, outscored, and barely lost to the team that rode their MVP goalie to the Cup finals.

The correlation between past playoff success and future playoff success is also massively exaggerated, even if we actually were remotely similar to our past versions. The miniscule margins by which versions of this team that featured quite a few different pieces lost past playoff series does not support that this current team is incapable of winning the cup. We're an excellent, well balanced team, that is good in all positions and game states.

Last year was pretty close to getting into the 2nd. round. Wouldn't have taken much to get over that hurdle. Even without Tavares they were close. Just missing something.

 

[ULF_55]

I don’t really agree but all good.
Myself, no one gets me out of my seat more than Marner. Selfishly; that’s worth every penny he makes to me.

Funny, and it is like art or food, personal taste, but I just don't get that from marner.
McDavid yes, marner nope.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Agreed, sounds like a Dubas gripe to me.
How inflated do you feel it is?

Marner being overpaid is absolutely a Dubas gripe. Marner's team threatening to seek out offer sheets however, that's on Marner.

Most people seem so feel that 9 million would have been a fair price for Marner and that seems fair to me as qell. Also the term should have been 7 years. What an enormous failure that contract was!

biggest defenseman trade

Pronger got traded for Shanahan

Great example! That seems like a very good comparable for a 1 for 1 trade involving Marner. The fact that it happened so long ago is also a good indication of how unlikely it is to happen. If Marner is to be traded, it will almost certainly be for some sort of package the way Eichel was.

Considering Nylander is on a great deal and is worth 8+ and Marner is better than Nylander, how much do you really think Marner is worth. How much is a guy who just finished top 5 in points, a top 3 defensive winger and a first-team all-star worth?

Marner's production is down so far this season. He's highly unlikely to finish top 5 in points or be a first team all-star and I don't know how you're measuring his defensive ability but I think it's safe to say that his value has gone down since the summer. That was one of the many reasons I wanted to explore trade possibilites - it's possible that his value will never be higher than it was this summer. Of course if he kills it in the playoffs then his value will go up again and let's be honest, it's been years since he's produced like a star in the playoffs and playoff performance is a huge part of player assessment and is a definite negative which should be listed beside all the positives.

All that being said, Marner's worth IMO is comparable to a healthy Jack Eichel.

 

[Notsince67]

I suppose you think Johnson’s a good cap number at 5 mil then?[/QUOTE]


You completely miss it. To say most teams that win the cup have bad contracts and point to Marners contract as "bad" is pretty incongruent with any reasonable point hence the surrender flag.

You then comment about a depth level player as if it is relevant which is even more confounding.

Let me make this simple.
The leafs don't overpay it's depth substantially. They've got term on their best players. We have one of the best playmaking forwards in the league who is around a ppg career.
Really amazing how you and others obsess about this. There is no model that was around that projected Marner at the 8-8.5mm salary...none. It's nothing but a navel gazing hot take.

 

[Dekes For Days]

There is no model that was around that projected Marner at the 8-8.5mm salary...

There is also absolutely no justification for that number by literally any measure; even bad measures that ignore critical information to make Marner look worse than he was.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Last year was pretty close to getting into the 2nd. round. Wouldn't have taken much to get over that hurdle. Even without Tavares they were close. Just missing something.

I know right? The year before also, and against Boston too, we were right there with them both playoffs until push came to shove and we just folded. I can't figure out for the life of me what this group has been missing but I'm almost ready to start believing in the Mahovlich curse.

 

[ToneDog]

There is also absolutely no justification for that number by literally any measure; even bad measures that ignore critical information to make Marner look worse than he was.

So what is the justification that Marner got 1.5m more than Kutcherov and 2.5m more than Aho and front loaded to boot ?? Seems to me Marner should have fallen somewhere between the two and nobody would be having this conversation again and again.

 

[ACC1224]

Funny, and it is like art or food, personal taste, but I just don't get that from marner.
McDavid yes, marner nope.

I have a bias not doubt but I was referring to watching him live.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I suppose you think Johnson’s a good cap number at 5 mil then?

You completely miss it. To say most teams that win the cup have bad contracts and point to Marners contract as "bad" is pretty incongruent with any reasonable point hence the surrender flag.

You then comment about a depth level player as if it is relevant which is even more confounding.

Let me make this simple.
The leafs don't overpay it's depth substantially. They've got term on their best players. We have one of the best playmaking forwards in the league who is around a ppg career.
Really amazing how you and others obsess about this. There is no model that was around that projected Marner at the 8-8.5mm salary...none. It's nothing but a navel gazing hot take.

I would agree with this, in fact I'm not sure we overpay our depth at all. That might be because we've given it all to our stars so there's nothing left over to overpay anyone else (half joking) but it's true. Marner is overpaid but every team has one or more bad contracts so overall, we're doing quite well in that regard. Why we keep losing in the playoffs is the big question, hopefully we break through this spring and we can stop wondering.

I have a bias not doubt but I was referring to watching him live.

I agree with you that Marner is one of the most exciting players in the NHL to watch. I also disagree that that makes him worth every penny but whatever.

 

[Leafslet]

You completely miss it. To say most teams that win the cup have bad contracts and point to Marners contract as "bad" is pretty incongruent with any reasonable point hence the surrender flag.

You then comment about a depth level player as if it is relevant which is even more confounding.

Let me make this simple.
The leafs don't overpay it's depth substantially. They've got term on their best players. We have one of the best playmaking forwards in the league who is around a ppg career.
Really amazing how you and others obsess about this. There is no model that was around that projected Marner at the 8-8.5mm salary...none. It's nothing but a navel gazing hot take.

unfortunately you’re not even sure what you’re responding to anymore. I’ve never claimed marner’s contract is our downfall, or advocated moving him. I’m indifferent to that idea, it may or may not be a solution, it may also or may not also be a mistake.

He is over paid though, which I have argued, and whether it is a star player or depth on tbay is self-evidently irrelevant, not even a distinction wirth arguing, all that matters is the amount of poorly spent space.

as for models, nj paid in line with the models too, and it is a huge blunder.

 

[Leafslet]

I don’t really agree but all good.
Myself, no one gets me out of my seat more than Marner. Selfishly; that’s worth every penny he makes to me.
Funny had Dubas taken Marners initial ask none of this discussion happens.

to each their own, he’s certainly a really good player.

 

[Zybalto]

Marner's production is down so far this season. He's highly unlikely to finish top 5 in points or be a first team all-star and I don't know how you're measuring his defensive ability but I think it's safe to say that his value has gone down since the summer. That was one of the many reasons I wanted to explore trade possibilites - it's possible that his value will never be higher than it was this summer. Of course if he kills it in the playoffs then his value will go up again and let's be honest, it's been years since he's produced like a star in the playoffs and playoff performance is a huge part of player assessment and is a definite negative which should be listed beside all the positives.

All that being said, Marner's worth IMO is comparable to a healthy Jack Eichel.

In the end, our disagreement is more or less founded on two things.

1.
I think running into 3 of the top ten goaltending performances of the last 3 playoffs has had a significant effect on the numbers all of the Leafs have put up and, looking at run of play and differentials, it wouldn't have been out of the question for Marner to have easily put up a PPG based on his numbers. His xGF% has him as one of the most dominant playoff performers in the league.

Marner is also a player capable of going on a tear and certainly finishing near the top of the league in points. He's one of the best players in the league and was just heating up before he went down.

2.
I don't think his contract should be held against him personally and the only thing he's ever said he's done regarding his contract is flatly refuse to entertain offer sheets as he only wants to play for the Leafs and didnt even want to miss training camp that year. All players keep quiet during negotiations though and any criticisms should always fall directly on the shoulders of the GM......and even so, his contract shouldn't even be considered that bad.

You can say he should have been more aware of PR issues I guess? Looks like he just wants to play hockey for the Leafs really.

 

[ACC1224]

to each their own, he’s certainly a really good player.

That he is. Merry Christmas!

 

[Leafslet]

That he is. Merry Christmas!

….

it’s happy holidays…

(kidding lol)

 

[ACC1224]

….

it’s happy holidays…

(kidding lol)

 

[Gary Nylund]

unfortunately you’re not even sure what you’re responding to anymore. I’ve never claimed marner’s contract is our downfall, or advocated moving him. I’m indifferent to that idea, it may or may not be a solution, it may also or may not also be a mistake.

He is over paid though, which I have argued, and whether it is a star player or depth on tbay is self-evidently irrelevant, not even a distinction wirth arguing, all that matters is the amount of poorly spent space.

as for models, nj paid in line with the models too, and it is a huge blunder.

I couldn't agree more. I've heard so many people say something like "I'd rather overpay a star player then a depth player" and it makes no sense to me at all. If you've overpaid by 2 million then what does it matter where it goes?

In the end, our disagreement is more or less founded on two things.

1.
I think running into 3 of the top ten goaltending performances of the last 3 playoffs has had a significant effect on the numbers all of the Leafs have put up and, looking at run of play and differentials, it wouldn't have been out of the question for Marner to have easily put up a PPG based on his numbers. His xGF% has him as one of the most dominant playoff performers in the league.

Marner is also a player capable of going on a tear and certainly finishing near the top of the league in points. He's one of the best players in the league and was just heating up before he went down.

I think our biggest disagreement is these xGF% numbers. IMHO these numbers are useful for looking at team performance but for individual players, they're basically useless, especially for small sample sizes which the playoffs always are. I've read in depth analysis as to why this is true, you believe differently and that's basically that.

2.
I don't think his contract should be held against him personally and the only thing he's ever said he's done regarding his contract is flatly refuse to entertain offer sheets as he only wants to play for the Leafs and didnt even want to miss training camp that year. All players keep quiet during negotiations though and any criticisms should always fall directly on the shoulders of the GM......and even so, his contract shouldn't even be considered that bad.

For me it's not personal at all, it's all about the team and I've always blamed Dubas for handing him that ridiculous contract. Talk of Marner's team soliciting offer sheets pissed people off though which is completely understandable.

You can say he should have been more aware of PR issues I guess? Looks like he just wants to play hockey for the Leafs really.

I'm pretty sure he also wants to make money, and lots of it. Nothing wrong with that but let's not pretend that money isn't a huge part of all this.

 

[Dekes For Days]

So what is the justification that Marner got 1.5m more than Kutcherov/Ranta and 2.5m more than Aho and front loaded to boot ??

Kucherov is irrelevant. He was not a post-ELC contract. As I've proven countless times now with explanation and endless data, Marner was easily a better player than Rantanen and Aho (who also received less term), in pretty much every way. He both produced more on his ELC overall, and reached a higher peak. Superior in production and primary production, raw and contextualized, with less reliance on empty net production. Superior at ES and on the PP and on the PK (which Rantanen didn't even do). Better defensively. All while being suppressed at pretty much every opportunity, unlike pretty much every other remotely similar player. The front loading/bonus structure is there to counter the tax disadvantage.

I know people like to cherry pick the best contracts and ignore information critical to contract valuation, but I've literally gone through the entire history of high-end post-ELC contracts in the entire cap era, and there's nothing to justify the outrage over Marner's contract. Even if we irrationally ignore how PP ice time impacts raw PP production like many people like to, and treat Marner as a considerably worse relative PP player than he was - which would never happen in negotiations - there is absolutely no way to justify anything close to an 8.5m number.

The outrage is primarily caused by two factors:

1. Marner came up in an era with lower PP ice time, on a team with lower PP ice time, and was put in suppressing PP situations. This has caused a disconnect between the actual PP proficiency that Marner had shown, and how people perceived his PP proficiency when considering exclusively raw PP points.
2. The cap stagnated post-signing due to an unforeseen global pandemic.

None of this is Marner's fault. It's the result of an unforeseen event and lack of contract valuation understanding in the general public. Marner just wanted to be paid what he was worth. It's time for people to let it go. Regardless of what you think, the contract is what it is, it was never going to be different in any situation, and we're better off with Marner at that cost, even in a flat cap environment, than we would be without Marner. He's a massive part of this team, and that's not only supported by all the data, but also by everybody that interacts with him, from the GM, to the coach, to other teammates, to players and executives on other teams. We've been able to build and improve the team considerably around him, despite the contract and post-contract occurrences, and now we have one of the best, most balanced teams in the league.

We are so, so lucky to have him (especially from a 4th overall pick), but people are so blinded by their own misunderstanding of contract valuation and misguided anger about end playoff results that they refuse to appreciate what we have and what he brings.

 

[Zybalto]

I think our biggest disagreement is these xGF% numbers. IMHO these numbers are useful for looking at team performance but for individual players, they're basically useless, especially for small sample sizes which the playoffs always are. I've read in depth analysis as to why this is true, you believe differently and that's basically that.

I think xGF% has proven to be incredibly useful but you may have a point on small sample sizes of course.

Top 5v5 forwards for xGF% ranked over the last two playoffs (min 200 minutes played and 13+ minutes a game, 64 forwards total):
1. Marner
2. Karlsson
3. Tuch
4. Matthews
5. Landeskog
6. Bergeron
7. Palat
8. Kucherov
9. Lee
10. Point
11. Marchand
12. Patches
14. Pasta
15. MacKinnon

Top 5v5 forwards for xGF% REL (to filter out team bias) from the same list.
1. Voracek
2. Marner
3. Bergeron
4. Lee
5. Gallagher
6. Landeskog
7. Palat
8. Barzal
9. Kucherov
10. Pasta
11. PLD
12. Matthews
14. Pavelski
15. Marchand

Taking into account Marner played the 4th most TOI and the at the highest level QoC, his numbers are staggeringly elite. Just no finish on the offensive end for him (the goalie thing I was talking about). Defensively just a wall and probably the best defensive winger in the playoffs. Note that all of the players surrounding him are considered to have have good playoffs (but certainly got both more puck luck and easier goalies to beat)

Notable players xGF% says were pretty bad in the playoffs the last two years:

Seguin
Foligno
Kadri
Kuraly
Reaves

It remains why I am so hopefull going forward and also why I think he has gotten a bit of a raw deal.