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Mitch Marner discussion

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Your feelings on Mitch

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Beyonder91 said:
Apologies... I've been trying not to engage with people who have an obvious agenda but your point was so incredibly ridiculous (no exaggeration here) I had to specifically respond to it.
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no worries.
 
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Notsince67 said:
Closer to underpaid than this.
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What are you basing your value on? Hes pacing 72 points this season and has had two consecutive (probably 3) postseasons where he might have been 4 million overpaid! im asking seriously though... why is he closer to underpaid then overpaid? Are you basing it on points he should have gotten if not for out of this world goaltending on the leafs seems to face?
 
Marner's number since Keefe took over compared with the rest of the team:

Regular season:

5v5:

Marner:
CF%: 53.02
SF%: 53.69
xGF%: 57.65
GF%: 59.04

Rest of the team without Marner:
CF%: 52.25
SF%: 51.96
xGF%: 53.73
GF%: 53.35

PP:

Marner:
xGF/60: 8.31
GF/60: 9.38

Rest of the team without Marner:
xGF/60: 6.97
GF/60: 8.75


Playoffs:

5v5:

Marner:
CF%: 55.77
SF%: 58.08
xGF%: 65.49
GF%: 48.57

Rest of the team without Marner:
CF%: 50.32
SF%: 51.99
xGF%: 51.58
GF%: 42.20

PP:

Marner:
xGF/60: 7.06
GF/60: 4.03

Rest of the team without Marner:
xGF/60: 5.88
GF/60: 6.05

Cheers.
 
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Antropovsky said:
What are you basing your value on? Hes pacing 72 points this season and has had two consecutive (probably 3) postseasons where he might have been 4 million overpaid! im asking seriously though... why is he closer to underpaid then overpaid? Are you basing it on points he should have gotten if not for out of this world goaltending on the leafs seems to face?
Click to expand...
Old discussion. Try the search function on this site. I've posted plenty. Conversing with a person completely devoid of any knowledge regarding comparables and contracts is futile. Bring something interesting to the table that hasnt been discussed ad nauseam
 
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Notsince67 said:
Old discussion. Try the search function on this site. I've posted plenty. Conversing with a person completely devoid of any knowledge regarding comparables and contracts is futile. Bring something interesting to the table that hasnt been discussed ad nauseam
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thought so as per usual you have no way of proving he is not 3 million overpaid.... he is on a 72 point pace, and had 4 assists in last years 7 game playoff series. show me ONE player who received a 11 million contract with those stats! ONE! You cant... for that reason he most definitely is overpaid...those numbers get you about 7 million. this is while Marner is being force fed Matthews and the #1 pp despite not scoring a pp goal in like a season a quarter.if he wasnt making 11 milliom hed have been on the 2nd pp long ago.

last time i asked you for evidence of your research, you quoted a couple of your own posts that proved absolutely nothing, in fact there were more holes in those posts then the post i was quoting!
 
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Zybalto said:
Marner's number since Keefe took over compared with the rest of the team:

Regular season:

5v5:

Marner:
CF%: 53.02
SF%: 53.69
xGF%: 57.65
GF%: 59.04

Rest of the team without Marner:
CF%: 52.25
SF%: 51.96
xGF%: 53.73
GF%: 53.35

PP:

Marner:
xGF/60: 8.31
GF/60: 9.38

Rest of the team without Marner:
xGF/60: 6.97
GF/60: 8.75


Playoffs:

5v5:

Marner:
CF%: 55.77
SF%: 58.08
xGF%: 65.49
GF%: 48.57

Rest of the team without Marner:
CF%: 50.32
SF%: 51.99
xGF%: 51.58
GF%: 42.20

PP:

Marner:
xGF/60: 7.06
GF/60: 4.03

Rest of the team without Marner:
xGF/60: 5.88
GF/60: 6.05

Cheers.
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Very much appreciate this, what are Tavares numbers with Marner vs without and same with Matthews? Matthews was injured at the beginning of the season, what were Marners stats during this time? I am more interested in Marners stats with and without the 11 million guys. Is there even much stats for this? Seems Marner is always stapled to an 11 million dollar player.

As Berkshire stated Matthews was #3 in 2019 in scoring chance generation for teammates, Tavares was 12 and Marner was 26th (Nylander 22nd)how many stats do we have where Marner isnt with a top 12 scoring chance generating linemate and they are without him? these are the stats i want to see....maybe Marner actually is better without them and they are worse without them , but this is what im most curious about.
 
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Silver lining, he won't miss as many games as we originally thought with the apparent pause coming.
 
Antropovsky said:
Very much appreciate this, what are Tavares numbers with Marner vs without and same with Matthews? Matthews was injured at the beginning of the season, what were Marners stats during this time? I am more interested in Marners stats with and without the 11 million guys. Is there even much stats for this? Seems Marner is always stapled to an 11 million dollar player.

As Berkshire stated Matthews was #3 in 2019 in scoring chance generation for teammates, Tavares was 12 and Marner was 26th (Nylander 22nd)how many stats do we have where Marner isnt with a top 12 scoring chance generating linemate and they are without him? these are the stats i want to see....maybe Marner actually is better without them and they are worse without them , but this is what im most curious about.
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It's tough to gauge really as Marner struggled early on but how much of that was a combination of playing with Ritchie (who didnt even work when he had both Matthews and Marner together with him) and an injury issue? Even looking since 2019, there just isnt a whole lot of data for Marner away from the top 2 centers and even when there is, he's being used in a defensive shutdown role which is gonna skew things quite a bit. Marner's Ozone starts away from those guys are in the mid 30s in limited minutes (but he still has a decent 50+% GF% which is kinda nice)

Just looking at the 5v5 data for Matthews with and without Marner during the Keefe era:

Marner/Matthews:
TOI: 1421:13
CF%: 55.18
xGF%: 61.34
GF%: 63.80

Matthews without Marner:
TOI: 687:03
CF%: 54.55
xGF%: 55.05
GF%: 53.79

With Ozone faceoffs/usage being almost identical and a decent sample size, this is a pretty good indication that they should be kept together. Looking at a comparable league-wide to Matthews/Marner/(fill in the blank) with the same type numbers and you can probably count it on one hand. As a line, they have pretty much the same numbers as Boston's "perfection" line.

Looking at Tavares/Nylander over the same stretch and we get:

Tavares/Nylander:
TOI: 1163:19
CF%: 54.71
xGF%: 58.12
GF%: 54.51

It's hard to compare Tavares in the same way as we did Matthews as he also played much more defensive minutes away from Nylander since Keefe came on board but Nylander did play similar usage away from Tavares:

Nylander without Tavares:
TOI: 597:28
CF%: 54.01
xGF%: 54.61
GF%: 47.75

Pretty big difference, especially in the outcomes. Pretty sure we are going to be seeing more of what we have been seeing the last couple of years because it just flat out works.
 
Zybalto said:
It's tough to gauge really as Marner struggled early on but how much of that was a combination of playing with Ritchie (who didnt even work when he had both Matthews and Marner together with him) and an injury issue? Even looking since 2019, there just isnt a whole lot of data for Marner away from the top 2 centers and even when there is, he's being used in a defensive shutdown role which is gonna skew things quite a bit. Marner's Ozone starts away from those guys are in the mid 30s in limited minutes (but he still has a decent 50+% GF% which is kinda nice)

Just looking at the 5v5 data for Matthews with and without Marner during the Keefe era:

Marner/Matthews:
TOI: 1421:13
CF%: 55.18
xGF%: 61.34
GF%: 63.80

Matthews without Marner:
TOI: 687:03
CF%: 54.55
xGF%: 55.05
GF%: 53.79

With Ozone faceoffs/usage being almost identical and a decent sample size, this is a pretty good indication that they should be kept together. Looking at a comparable league-wide to Matthews/Marner/(fill in the blank) with the same type numbers and you can probably count it on one hand. As a line, they have pretty much the same numbers as Boston's "perfection" line.

Looking at Tavares/Nylander over the same stretch and we get:

Tavares/Nylander:
TOI: 1163:19
CF%: 54.71
xGF%: 58.12
GF%: 54.51

It's hard to compare Tavares in the same way as we did Matthews as he also played much more defensive minutes away from Nylander since Keefe came on board but Nylander did play similar usage away from Tavares:

Nylander without Tavares:
TOI: 597:28
CF%: 54.01
xGF%: 54.61
GF%: 47.75

Pretty big difference, especially in the outcomes. Pretty sure we are going to be seeing more of what we have been seeing the last couple of years because it just flat out works.
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You have confirmed my point, we have very limited data of Marner without Matthews or Tavares, and the little data we have of Marner without Matthews (the beginning of the season) Marner struggled. You then make excuses for Marner and suggest a possible injury or blame playing with Ritchie. If im not mistaken Matthews has played alot of minutes without Nylander, Tavares or Marner on his line and he still does pretty damn good. Again, the question isnt, do Matthews and Marner together have better percentages than without eachother... the question is does Marner move the needle 11 million dollars ahead for Matthews or does he move it 6 million dollars ahead. Also, does Marner produce 11 million dollar value when not playing with elite centers ie is he elite with 2nd and 3rd line players like Matthews has proven to be and Crosby and Mcdavid (or others paid 11 million) Marner has been in the league a long time and the crazy part is none of us have seen him without an elite linemate for an extended period of time. We dont know how hed perform. Again, Berkshires stats were in 2019, Marners best season, and primarily a playmaker he was 26th in creation of scoring chances for his linemates. His most commone linemates were #3 and #12 and they are also two of the very best goal scorers in the league.

I really want to see Marner play an extended period of time without an elite goal scoring linemate. I certainly saw Matthews score A LOT of goals last year that maybe 1 or 2 other nhl players could score, ans Marner was the beneficiary. I also think there is a chance Marner would become more independant and produce more on his own and maybe score more if he wasnt always looking to find his elite scoring linemate and maybe had less trust in his linemates shots.

I do appreciate you posting the stats though to support your arguments, its helpful and makes seeing your perspective easier.
 
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I think he should be played at center.

And he has to get a shot.

In 379 NHL regular season games he's scored a total of 2 short-handed goals.

In 1079 NHL regular season games Keon scored 31.

marner is on pace for 6 short-handed goals over the same number of games.

Time to pick it up.
 
ULF_55 said:
There are definitely some defensemen that would make sense, unfortunately I think the Leafs would have to retain.

Makar only makes 9 million.
Fox 9.5
Hedman 7.875
Hughes 7.850
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Some attractive D there... the first three players, play for teams that don't have a need for first line Winger....
 
Fogelhund said:
What exactly are we going to do , with a bunch of LD, who don't play the Right side very well?
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Was just a name I threw out there because I know he’s being shopped.

replace him with a young D who plays on the right side. Jfc.
 
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