Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Continued

[Dekes For Days]

Fair, but any examples from the last half decade or so? Marner was 10 years old when Gomez signed that deal
It's also worth noting the most recent of those, Panarin also was only able to sign for 7 years as a full free agent. Is the 8th year of guaranteed money deal worth nothing?

I don't think you can really limit the time period (especially to one with the abnormal flat cap) when we're talking about such rare players and contract ranges. Using cap hit percentages allows us to compare across bigger time periods. If anything, the current cap environment is much, much closer to the early cap era than it is to the early 2020s. You could argue that the 8th year (if that's the route we go) should knock the price down a bit, but Marner is also much better than Panarin when he signed.

A lot of people still don't seem to get how good Marner is. Since we got back to the normal league in 2021, he's been the 5th best producer at 5v5 (0.05 behind 2nd) and the 6th best producer on the PP (0.06 behind 5th), while facing the toughest matchups and bringing high-end defense and PKing. That's a very rare and valuable player. Quite frankly, the closest players to him that have signed in recent history are Matthews, Mackinnon, and Draisaitl, and they all got 15-16%.

 

[francis246]

Same coach that should have scratched holmberg or press boxed reeves and play lily yeah sure we’ll see

Liljegren stinks, all you have to do is go watch SJ games. He hasn’t magically improved with more ice time. He’s still making the same mistakes and turning over the puck a lot.

 

[notbias]

Liljegren stinks, all you have to do is go watch SJ games. He hasn’t magically improved with more ice time. He’s still making the same mistakes and turning over the puck a lot.

I was genuinely curious how he was doing since his stats are good...

Speculation: - Player Discussion: Timothy Liljegren

Been good?

forums.hfboards.com

Stat-wise he is 50% G (2nd for D on the team), and 3.6% rel xGF (4th on the team and driving play better than most teammates)

San Jose fans seem to think he is doing well in a 2nd pairing role (on a terrible team).

Why do you think he is doing bad?

I think Liljegren can figure it out somewhere, so not surprised if he is performing better elsewhere.

 

[Jojalu]

You have Eichel ahead of Marner when they have Identical production and Marner has a goal more than Eichel?! lol, if Eichel is good enough to be in the conversation Marner is as well. Their production is literally identical.

I think it comes down to just overall impact on team. I think Reinhart is the favourite you could throw Jesper Bratt in the convo. No Edmonton player is the conversation right now they just haven’t been good enough as a team

Edm is ahead of Col, TB and 2 points behind Fla and Tor.

Should Mack, Rantanen, Reinhart and Kuch all be out of the conversation

 

[Darcy Tucker]

Edm is ahead of Col, TB and 2 points behind Fla and Tor.

Should Mack, Rantanen, Reinhart and Kuch all be out of the conversation

Scoring is up and we are arguing about defensive specialists instead of super stars. Marner may have found his niche and made some bucks off it. Good for the guy. Maybe he can grow a beard and be viking. One day we'll be on. Ship. It.

 

[666]

The samples of AM 5v5 production was posted here and include the last 5 years or more. AM conclusively was scoring at a faster clip without MM.

5 years is a little too long and includes the Covid seasons.

Matthews last 3 full seasons:5v5

With	TOI With	Goals/60	Total Assists/60
Mitchell Marner	2008	1.64	1.34
William Nylander	1026	1.34	1.46

 

[Roo]

Same coach that should have scratched holmberg or press boxed reeves and play lily yeah sure we’ll see

Last I checked, we're atop our division - so he's clearly doing something right. If he thinks its the right thing to do, he will do it. I don't see Berube letting the players dictate how we play. They clearly respect him and have bought in.

Here is the proof:

 

[thewave]

5 years is a little too long and includes the Covid seasons.

Matthews last 3 full seasons:5v5

With	TOI With	Goals/60	Total Assists/60
Mitchell Marner	2008	1.64	1.34
William Nylander	1026	1.34	1.46

Close enough, last year was an exceptional year as well. I think the main point in this is that they should all be driving a line and balancing the minutes out so they don't burnout.

Mitch looks great with JT. Willy is already paid so they should get him to get l3 cooking or something. AM was good with Knies and a guy like Domi or whatever.

 

[arso40]

Liljegren stinks, all you have to do is go watch SJ games. He hasn’t magically improved with more ice time. He’s still making the same mistakes and turning over the puck a lot.

I’m watching Timmins turning the pucc over at will and getting a pass lol regardless obviously I have my opinion on that particular move but regardless

Last I checked, we're atop our division - so he's clearly doing something right. If he thinks its the right thing to do, he will do it. I don't see Berube letting the players dictate how we play. They clearly respect him and have bought in.

Here is the proof:

View attachment 944792

Our goal against is a result of better goaltending that should be blatantly obvious there might be smaller factors as well but the main difference is goaltending think otherwise if you’d like

 

[DarkKnight]

Liljegren stinks, all you have to do is go watch SJ games. He hasn’t magically improved with more ice time. He’s still making the same mistakes and turning over the puck a lot.

I said when we traded him, he'd be fine on an absolute garbage D core. Who cares, he wasn't doing anything here, he routinely was pulled for playoffs, he was horrific last year, he isn't what you want to make a deep run. Period. Is he an NHL D man? Yes. Is he an NHL D man on a good group? Nope. Soft and low IQ under pressure, buh bye. Wish you well, never ever miss you

 

[Stephen]

As Versteeg said and has been my position, you wait to see how it plays out before you decide if you want to sign him and how much to offer. Of course this is a franchise that has not won a cup since 1967, so no surprise they will make the wrong move. It is less than a year since watching Willie morph into a 120 point player only to return to the old PPG Willie the minute after caving to him. You think the idiots would have learned something.

It's also not that simple.

You could come to the conclusion that Marner's the wrong stuff and he will never deliver in the playoffs.

But you also can't walk away unless there's a superior replacement ready, willing and capable to come here at similar dollars to keep this level of success going for the next half decade or so. This summer there's a Mikko Rantanen on the market, so there's something out there, but it's a moon shot. If you could swing it, it would be like your Huberdeau for Tkachuk type star trade.

The downside to committing to Marner is he's a playoff dud, but the risk isn't that high since you're just going to be stuck at the same level.

 

[LeafEgo]

It's also not that simple.

You could come to the conclusion that Marner's the wrong stuff and he will never deliver in the playoffs.

But you also can't walk away unless there's a superior replacement ready, willing and capable to come here at similar dollars to keep this level of success going for the next half decade or so. This summer there's a Mikko Rantanen on the market, so there's something out there, but it's a moon shot. If you could swing it, it would be like your Huberdeau for Tkachuk type star trade.

The downside to committing to Marner is he's a playoff dud, but the risk isn't that high since you're just going to be stuck at the same level.

If you came to that conclusion of course you would walk away. A replacement option wouldn't even need to be immediately available.

As unusual a situation as it is, Marner needs to prove this playoffs that he, in combination with this team, works. That information is critical heading into the offseason at this juncture, and is probably only being tested another time because of the contract.

So far so good. Go Mitch!

 

[ToneDog]

If you came to that conclusion of course you would walk away. A replacement option wouldn't even need to be immediately available.

As unusual a situation as it is, Marner needs to prove this playoffs that he, in combination with this team, works. That information is critical heading into the offseason at this juncture, and is probably only being tested another time because of the contract.

So far so good. Go Mitch!

We could also get a preview by how he performs in this 4 nations tourney, assuming it is not a shinny tournament.

I would rather take a step back rather than locking into and overpaying a playoff "dud". Then again, I don't have to answer the the season ticket subscribers who need to be entertained for 41 home games.

 

[francis246]

We could also get a preview by how he performs in this 4 nations tourney, assuming it is not a shinny tournament.

I would rather take a step back rather than locking into and overpaying a playoff "dud". Then again, I don't have to answer the the season ticket subscribers who need to be entertained for 41 home games.

If he dominates at the four nations will you be ready to hand him a contract? Or are we just watching the four nations for him to struggle so you have a reason to argue not to sign him?

I’m always curious. Cause I’m hoping he does well, but I don’t think we should be reading into that tournament either way.

 

[Roo]

Our goal against is a result of better goaltending that should be blatantly obvious there might be smaller factors as well but the main difference is goaltending think otherwise if you’d like

Absolutely better goaltending, but equally our defensive structure - which is our defenders and forwards working to limit high-quality scoring chances. You're kidding yourself if you think it is just goaltending. Teams with crap defense but quality goaltenders don't sit atop the league in goals against.

 

[Stephen]

We could also get a preview by how he performs in this 4 nations tourney, assuming it is not a shinny tournament.

I would rather take a step back rather than locking into and overpaying a playoff "dud". Then again, I don't have to answer the the season ticket subscribers who need to be entertained for 41 home games.

There's no way you willingly take a step back in a 32 team league because you don't know how far you fall back without a suitable star replacement.

I've been open to and wanting to move off Marner many times, pretty much every off season since 2020, but it's always predicated on making that DeRozan for Kawhi level upgrade. Maybe that's a Marner out, Rantanen in this summer, maybe that could have been Marner out, Eichel in back in 2021 or whatever it was, maybe the Tkachuk pursuit, maybe it was some combination of bluechip prospects and futures and cap space, weaponizing in free agency.

 

[Racer88]

If he dominates at the four nations will you be ready to hand him a contract? Or are we just watching the four nations for him to struggle so you have a reason to argue not to sign him?

I’m always curious. Cause I’m hoping he does well, but I don’t think we should be reading into that tournament either way.

2 good questions. I will take a stab at answering them.
In my opinion I couldn’t care less about the 4 nations cup. It’s a meaningless put on tourney cash grab.
I actually want to see Marner flourish and knock ‘em dead in the playoffs. . Anything that makes the team better works for me even though I have concerns about his ability to elevate in the playoffs.
I would not even consider a new deal until we see what happens this year in the playoffs

 

[ToneDog]

If he dominates at the four nations will you be ready to hand him a contract? Or are we just watching the four nations for him to struggle so you have a reason to argue not to sign him?

I’m always curious. Cause I’m hoping he does well, but I don’t think we should be reading into that tournament either way.

If teams do not play soft, I'd would not be adverse to it. In theory, there is not an NHL team as good as any of these 4 teams. If he struggles, let his and the teams performance in the payoffs dictate what you do with him. The way I see it, they should get by their first round opponent in less than 7. How he/the team competes thereafter will tell me if this core is rotten or worth the risk of locking into for the next 3+ years.

There's no way you willingly take a step back in a 32 team league because you don't know how far you fall back without a suitable star replacement.

I've been open to and wanting to move off Marner many times, pretty much every off season since 2020, but it's always predicated on making that DeRozan for Kawhi level upgrade. Maybe that's a Marner out, Rantanen in this summer, maybe that could have been Marner out, Eichel in back in 2021 or whatever it was, maybe the Tkachuk pursuit, maybe it was some combination of bluechip prospects and futures and cap space, weaponizing in free agency.

So if you determine Marner is a playoff "dud" and a Ranta is not available, you want to pay him $13??m and keep running them back? That there is insane unless management has an agenda that does not start and end with winning the SC.

Can you imagine the reaction of the fanbase if they are punted in round #1 by Boston or Tampa and they sign Marner for $13m? The way I see it, if they cannot beat the weak Bruins or not so good Lightning this year, there is no hope for this core. Put a fork in them. They are done.

 

[Stephen]

So if you determine Marner is a playoff "dud" and a Ranta is not available, you want to pay him $13??m and keep running them back? That there is insane unless management has an agenda that does not start and end with winning the SC.

I would say we kind of know he's a playoff dud based on 8 years of history, so this spring isn't going to be a test that proves beyond a shadow of a doubt.

But the alternative in subtracting Marner without a replacement is you could risk falling back into Detroit, Buffalo, Ottawa territory and is that what you really want to risk?

Change can't happen for the sake of change.

 

[ToneDog]

I would say we kind of know he's a playoff dud based on 8 years of history, so this spring isn't going to be a test that proves beyond a shadow of a doubt.

But the alternative in subtracting Marner without a replacement is you could risk falling back into Detroit, Buffalo, Ottawa territory and is that what you really want to risk?

If the the goal is to win the SC and I conclude we will never win it with Marner, then hell yes, I'm willing to take one step back to take two forward. Not sure why you are assuming they will fall to Detroit, Buffalo, Ottawa territory without Marner when they still have Matthews and Nylander.

 

[Darcy Tucker]

If the the goal is to win the SC and I conclude we will never win it with Marner, then hell yes, I'm willing to take one step back to take two forward. Not sure why you are assuming they will fall to Detroit, Buffalo, Ottawa territory without Marner when they still have Matthews and Nylander.

Marner just needs to bulk a bit man. I think his prime is a far ways away from fading away. But I'm just rolling another . Track onto the walkie talkie and doing jumping jacks .

 

[notbias]

If the the goal is to win the SC and I conclude we will never win it with Marner, then hell yes, I'm willing to take one step back to take two forward. Not sure why you are assuming they will fall to Detroit, Buffalo, Ottawa territory without Marner when they still have Matthews and Nylander.

Your conclusion is not based on reality, saying that the team can never win with Marner is the same as saying that Edmonton could never win with McDavid because they haven't won yet.

Use MacKinnon until Makar or Ovechkin before he won, but these narratives were around before.

Shockingly, hockey is a random sport where you can have the perfect team and still lose, and a single player can not influence a series the way someone in something like the NBA can.

We've had bigger issues with depth scoring (even when spending in free agency on it) and shaky goaltending when it matters, not with the stars not performing.

 

[ToneDog]

Marner just needs to bulk a bit man. I think his prime is a far ways away from fading away. But I'm just rolling another . Track onto the walkie talkie and doing jumping jacks .

Too bad it is 2024 and he is not going up against Grundstrom's in the playoffs. As great a job he did at shutting down Pasta in the playoffs, when it counted Pasta won the series for them. What Pasta did, we have not seen one of the 3 amigos do in the numerous games #7s they have melted in.

 

[Darcy Tucker]

Too bad it is 2024 and he is not going up against Grundstrom's in the playoffs.

Grundstroms don't get drafted they end up in Europe playing for schillings.

 

[ToneDog]

Grundstroms don't get drafted they end up in Europe playing for schillings.

Sorry, not sure what your point is.