Player Discussion Mitch Marner, Continued

[Confucius]

I know. That being said regular season success has not been the same as playoff success. That is a proven fact. Until then we watch regular season hoping things change.

I watch to be entertained each game, I see incredible talent and realize how good one has to be to just make an NHL roster. If all I cared about was the playoffs, that's all I'd watch. No different than Baseball, basketball and CFL. I only watch the playoffs for those sports.

 

[HolyCrap]

I watch to be entertained each game, I see incredible talent and realize how good one has to be to just make an NHL roster. If all I cared about was the playoffs, that's all I'd watch. No different than Baseball, basketball and CFL. I only watch the playoffs for those sports.

That’s good for you. I was talking about something different. I didn’t say you only should care about the playoffs. lol.

 

[Suntouchable13]

If you're just talking numbers, 13M is tops he should get. And he definitely should get less cap % than Rantanen or Drai. Rantanen has sort of similar regular season stats, but blows Marner's numbers out of the water in the ploffs. Plus he has a cup.

 

[Maple Leaf]

If you're just talking numbers, 13M is tops he should get. And he definitely should get less cap % than Rantanen or Drai. Rantanen has sort of similar regular s/eason stats, but blows Marner's numbers out of the water in the ploffs. Plus he has a cup.

Leafs can't win a cup paying marner and matthews 13M it is bad cap management if you know you know but most here have no clue

 

[LeafLoyalist]

If you're just talking numbers, 13M is tops he should get. And he definitely should get less cap % than Rantanen or Drai. Rantanen has sort of similar regular season stats, but blows Marner's numbers out of the water in the ploffs. Plus he has a cup.

Why doesn't the TML tell these guys this is what we are going to pay you....if you don't like it then leave. This is the TML, who wouldn't want to play here, better to spend a little less on great talent, and have more money to get better talent in other parts of the team...D & G. I don't understand why the Leafs need to cave to these guys....if you're not willing to sacrifice a little bit of salary for a chance to win in Toronto, then you don't deserve to be here. Marner is obviously one of the best in the league, but i feel it went back to JT, the bar was set and all these guys seen that as the base for their contracts.

 

[BlueAzN]

Give him Soto money

 

[notbias]

If you're just talking numbers, 13M is tops he should get. And he definitely should get less cap % than Rantanen or Drai. Rantanen has sort of similar regular season stats, but blows Marner's numbers out of the water in the ploffs. Plus he has a cup.*

* that he can thank Makar for.

Does McDavid deserve less than MacKinnon because MacKinnon has a cup?

His % will be between Nylander and Matthews (or it should be), so somewhere between 12.5-13.5 I think.

 

[Menzinger]

* that he can thank Makar for.

Does McDavid deserve less than MacKinnon because MacKinnon has a cup?

His % will be between Nylander and Matthews (or it should be), so somewhere between 12.5-13.5 I think.

What cap hit comparables have him getting anywhere near 13.5 aav? Even if you want to assume the cap is say 92.5mil next year?

I can see cases made for 12.5-12.9 but can't see where 13+ I'd realistically coming from

 

[notbias]

What cap hit comparables have him getting anywhere near 13.5 aav? Even if you want to assume the cap is say 92.5mil next year?

It's 500k under Matthews' hit at the same cap.

I think he is closer to 12.5 million (Nylander's % at that cap), but I am saying between that is what I expect.

It's a full million under Draisaitl's % at that cap for example.

I just go by cap % since I don't think signings from a lower cap have any relevance without using %.

 

[Menzinger]

It's 500k under Matthews' hit at the same cap.

I think he is closer to 12.5 million (Nylander's % at that cap), but I am saying between that is what I expect.

It's a full million under Draisaitl's % at that cap for example.

I just go by cap % since I don't think signings from a lower cap have any relevance without using %.

I agree using cap % is best. Not sure i see the point in using a goal scoring centre as a contract comparison for a playmaking winger though. Plenty of other winger cap hit %s can be found across the league instead

Give Marner 14% cap % of the likely next league cap gives him 12.9ish for example.

 

[ACC1224]

What cap hit comparables have him getting anywhere near 13.5 aav? Even if you want to assume the cap is say 92.5mil next year?

I can see cases made for 12.5-12.9 but can't see where 13+ I'd realistically coming from

What % did he take last time? Unless he's giving a discount, I would think he would get slightly more this time.

 

[notbias]

I agree using cap % is best. Not sure i see the point in using a goal scoring centre as a contract comparison for a playmaking winger though. Plenty of other winger cap hit %s can be found across the league instead

Give Marner 14% cap % of the likely next league cap gives him 12.9ish for example.

I think the 14% you reference is fair, it is almost directly between the two numbers I think will be the low and high end of the potential contract.

Also, Marner is not your typical winger, so finding a comparable is hard, I'd probably use Nylander as a comparable since our GM negotiated it.

I see him between Matthews and Nylander as a player, and as a contract, again, the 14% seems fair.

 

[notbias]

What % did he take last time? Unless he's giving a discount, I would think he would get slightly more this time.

https://puckpedia.com/player/mitchell-marner

13.37%, so a slight raise would be in line with the 14%.

I also think he was slightly overpaid last time, as Nylander is this time.

 

[Smif]

The reason we should do it early is to not inflate the price by offering him a percentage of the cap and then the cap surprisingly increases more than expected. Which I believe is often anounced around the all-star break.

 

[notbias]

The reason we should do it early is to not inflate the price by offering him a percentage of the cap and then the cap surprisingly increases more than expected. Which I believe is often anounced around the all-star break.

I wouldn't be surprised if GMs and Agents have the cap mapped out far beyond the contract length.

CapFriendly had like 5 year projections (no clue how accurate they were)

 

[Dekes For Days]

What cap hit comparables have him getting anywhere near 13.5 aav? Even if you want to assume the cap is say 92.5mil next year?

That would be 14.6%. Not unreasonable. UFAs that have gotten between 14 and 15 percent include the likes of Staal, Heatley, Gomez, Panarin, Kopitar, etc.

 

[theIceWookie]

If you're just talking numbers, 13M is tops he should get. And he definitely should get less cap % than Rantanen or Drai. Rantanen has sort of similar regular season stats, but blows Marner's numbers out of the water in the ploffs. Plus he has a cup.

It's a little weird to me that Rantanen is just automatically assumed to be the better player. For one, the whole "has a cup" argument is one of the stupider arguments in this day and age given the team aspect of winning a Cup and how difficult it is to win one nowadays. But for now I'll stick to the statistical comparison's between Rantanen and Marner.

Rantanen has a worse statistical profile than Marner in the regular season. Rantanen's career average ppg is 1.09. Marner's is 1.12. Rantanen scores more, for sure (0.46 compared to Marner's 0.33) but he also doesn't play a second of short-handed time, nor is he the two-way player that Marner is. He certainly brings more offense in the playoffs (1.24 in the playoff compared to regular season, which is the sort of jump you want to see).

But like this idea that it's outrageous that Marner would be consider in the same camp cap wise...is weird. It would not be egregious to see them have a similar cap hit.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It's a little weird to me that Rantanen is just automatically assumed to be the better player.

Especially since Marner is actually the better player.

 

[DarkKnight]

Bettman today made it seem like the cap will go up more than expected. And we're now hearing 105 mil by 2026-27. This speaks to what Marner may ask, but also the Leafs ability to now carry three big contracts more effectively.

 

[Byron Bitz]

Bettman today made it seem like the cap will go up more than expected. And we're now hearing 105 mil by 2026-27. This speaks to what Marner may ask, but also the Leafs ability to now carry three big contracts more effectively.

Last time we negotiated with Marner, Bill Daly came out and said the salary cap was gonna increase by around 7 million over the next 3 years and Marner was paid under the assumption that was going to happen and the cap remained flat for the next 5 years. We are not doing that again.

 

[DarkKnight]

Last time we negotiated with Marner, Bill Daly came out and said the salary cap was gonna increase by around 7 million over the next 3 years and Marner was paid under the assumption that was going to happen and the cap remained flat for the next 5 years. We are not doing that again.

Sure we are lol.

 

[ACC1224]

Sure we are lol.

You have to wonder what being in the Hart conversation will do to negotiations?
You hate to see it.

 

[ToneDog]

Add Luke Fox (36:25) to the camp that says wait. Fox says, we've seen fantastic regular season's before. Calls Mitch the team MVP, driver, all good things but wait it out when it comes to the contact. Does not know if you can commit or build a winner with some much money to so few players.

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[ToneDog]

You have to wonder what being in the Hart conversation will do to negotiations?
You hate to see it.

Spoiler alert: the Hart is not won in November. Perhaps we should wait a few more months? Mac, Ranta, Kaprizov, Necas, Kutcherov are ahead of Marner and Draisaitl and McDavid are starting to heat up.

 

[DarkKnight]

Spoiler alert: the Hart is not won in November. Perhaps we should wait a few more months? Mac, Ranta, Kaprizov, Necas, Kutcherov are ahead of Marner and Draisaitl and McDavid are starting to heat up.

All he's saying is media are already floating his name.