GDT: Meaningless Match vs. Minnesota Pt. 2| Final Game of the RS|

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The Note

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:blues
When: Thursday, May 13 at 7 p.m. CT
Where: Enterprise Center in St. Louis, MO
Watch: Bally Sports Midwest
Listen: 101 ESPN, NHL App

*Projected*
Barbashev - O'Reilly - Perron
Schwartz - Schenn - Kyrou
Kostin - Thomas - Hoffman
Clifford - Sanford - MacEachern

Krug - Faulk
Scandella - Parayko
Mikkola - Bortuzzo

Husso/Binnington

VS.

:wild

Scoring Race:
Perron - 55 pts
ROR - 53 pts
 

BlueDream

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It would be hard to imagine not protecting the leading scorer in the expansion draft, even if he only has a year left. Although it would potentially give an alternative to Dunn.
Why are we worried about Dunn?

Not protecting Perron should get Armstrong fired. That would be completely ridiculous on so many levels.

Anyways, looking forward to the finale tonight and then playoff time. I hope Husso is going again tonight. Why not?
 

Stupendous Yappi

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Why are we worried about Dunn?

Not protecting Perron should get Armstrong fired. That would be completely ridiculous on so many levels.

Anyways, looking forward to the finale tonight and then playoff time. I hope Husso is going again tonight. Why not?
It’s still a reasonable choice depending who you protect instead. It’s getting harder to justify Sundqvist over Perron. But it’s just one year of the player. Seattle is going to be wanting assets it can control for a while. If they draft Perron, it would probably be with the notion of flipping him at the deadline for picks. But if they have a choice for a young player entering his prime who has more years under control, they would have to think hard about it.

I could see a scenario where Schwartz is re-signed and the Blues gamble on leaving Perron unprotected. I wouldn’t love it, but it’s a legit strategy. Heck, maybe they’d just re-sign Perron a year later.
 
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Stealth JD

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Colorado essentially gets to pick their opponent; assuming they can beat the Kings at will (which appears to be the case).
I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose tonight, as I imagine they'd be more comfortable with the Wild than the Blues.

Edit: the Avs board seems to think they're better off with home-ice in Rd.2 and playing the Blues in Rd. 1, than playing the "easier" Wild in Rd. 1 and starting Rd. 2 in Vegas. Tough to knock that logic.
 
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BlueDream

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It’s still a reasonable choice depending who you protect instead. It’s getting harder to justify Sundqvist over Perron. But it’s just one year of the player. Seattle is going to be wanting assets it can control for a while. If they draft Perron, it would probably be with the notion of flipping him at the deadline for picks. But if they have a choice for a young player entering his prime who has more years under control, they would have to think hard about it.

I could see a scenario where Schwartz is re-signed and the Blues gamble on leaving Perron unprotected. I wouldn’t love it, but it’s a legit strategy. Heck, maybe they’d just re-sign Perron a year later.
Well it’s hard to say what Seattle will do, since none of us thought Vegas would compete either.

I think leaving a PPG player unprotected is pretty insane. I know his age, but he’s getting better every year that he gets older. Hoffman might be gone, Tarasenko is a question mark, so Perron is really our most reliable goal scorer going into next season.

And for all that he has done for this organization, it would just be devastating if they exposed him again. I would hate that level of disrespect.

Bottom line though is him and ROR are our 2 best forwards these days. You protect both with no questions asked. If we lose Dunn or a bottom 6 forward, that’s not that bad.
 

Thallis

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Well it’s hard to say what Seattle will do, since none of us thought Vegas would compete either.

I think leaving a PPG player unprotected is pretty insane. I know his age, but he’s getting better every year that he gets older. Hoffman might be gone, Tarasenko is a question mark, so Perron is really our most reliable goal scorer going into next season.

And for all that he has done for this organization, it would just be devastating if they exposed him again. I would hate that level of disrespect.

Bottom line though is him and ROR are our 2 best forwards these days. You protect both with no questions asked. If we lose Dunn or a bottom 6 forward, that’s not that bad.

We don't have 7 forwards that are better than Perron. If Seattle wants to draft a Sundqvist after having a year ending injury let them. They'll pick Dunn almost guaranteed.
 

Brian39

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I can't wrap my head around the logic of exposing Perron. He's without a doubt a top 5 player on this team, so the only justification would be the contract. If we're talking about contracts, I'd take his 1 remaining year at $4M over Tarasenko's 2 remaining years at $7.5M. There is a pretty decent chance that Tarasenko doesn't return to being a $7.5M caliber player and an overpay on a $7.5M deal is no less painful than whatever it would take to extend Perron.

Perron contributes more to the team right now and his points production this season has been better than any year of Tarasenko's career. Perron has played at a 29 goal and 72 point pace over the last 3 seasons. In the 3 seasons leading up to Tarasenko's injury issues, he played at a 36 goal and 72 point pace. Even assuming that Tarasenko returns to his pre-injury form, there is an argument that 1 year at $4M + an extension for Perron is better cap/asset management than 2 years at $7.5M + an extension for Tarasenko. I'm not sure that the extra 7 goals for this best-case-scenario Tarasenko is worth an extra $2.5M AAV. And this is before you even start worrying about Tarasenko's next 2 years potentially being a reduction in production from mid-20s and pre multiple shoulder surgery Tarasenko.

It is objectively clear that Perron loves the city/organization and will be open to an extension if he is protected. None of us know whether he will be open to a discount or whether he would be as eager to come back if Seattle takes him. But we can say with full confidence that he will negotiate an extension in good faith if he is on the roster next year. I just don't understand how it is worth exposing a 70 point player interested in returning to the franchise simply because he has 1 year remaining (at one of the best AAVs in the league).

We would have to protect Sunny AND Tarasenko in order to expose Perron. Both of them only have 2 years left on their deals, so you are really only buying yourself 1 extra year of either player than you get from Perron. Going beyond asset management, I love Sunny for what his but he is not more valuable to the team than Perron. Perron is a 70 point 1st line forward who plays 20 minutes a night, played 18 minutes per night in the Cup run and had 7g/9a in the Cup run. Sunny is a 15 minute a night guy that played 16 per night in the Cup run. He had 4g/5a on the Cup run and has scored at a 15g/16a pace over the last 3 years. He was fine when slotting up the lineup this year, but he didn't look like a true top 6 guy. Sunny brings a lot to the table and his contract is very good. But 2 years of his AAV as a utility knife through the middle/bottom 6 doesn't outweigh the value of 1 year of Perron's contribution as a legit top 50 NHL forward at $4M AAV.

Across the league, Perron is 18th in points this year and 45th since re-joining the team in 2018/19. He's a no-doubt 1st liner who has improved his game into and through his early 30s. His AAV is among the best values in the league. Exposing him in favor of two guys with less team-friendly AAVs over a 1 year difference in contract term would be an insanely poor decision.
 
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DeuceNine

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I can't wrap my head around the logic of exposing Perron. He's without a doubt a top 5 player on this team, so the only justification would be the contract. If we're talking about contracts, I'd take his 1 remaining year at $4M over Tarasenko's 2 remaining years at $7.5M. There is a pretty decent chance that Tarasenko doesn't return to being a $7.5M caliber player and an overpay on a $7.5M deal is no less painful than whatever it would take to extend Perron.

Perron contributes more to the team right now and his points production this season has been better than any year of Tarasenko's career. Perron has played at a 29 goal and 72 point pace over the last 3 seasons. In the 3 seasons leading up to Tarasenko's injury issues, he played at a 36 goal and 72 point pace. Even assuming that Tarasenko returns to his pre-injury form, there is an argument that 1 year at $4M + an extension for Perron is better cap/asset management than 2 years at $7.5M + an extension for Tarasenko. I'm not sure that the extra 7 goals for this best-case-scenario Tarasenko is worth an extra $2.5M AAV. And this is before you even start worrying about Tarasenko's next 2 years potentially being a reduction in production from mid-20s and pre multiple shoulder surgery Tarasenko.

It is objectively clear that Perron loves the city/organization and will be open to an extension if he is protected. None of us know whether he will be open to a discount or whether he would be as eager to come back if Seattle takes him. But we can say with full confidence that he will negotiate an extension in good faith if he is on the roster next year. I just don't understand how it is worth exposing a 70 point player interested in returning to the franchise simply because he has 1 year remaining (at one of the best AAVs in the league).

We would have to protect Sunny AND Tarasenko in order to expose Perron. Both of them only have 2 years left on their deals, so you are really only buying yourself 1 extra year of either player than you get from Perron. Going beyond asset management, I love Sunny for what his but he is not more valuable to the team than Perron. Perron is a 70 point 1st line forward who plays 20 minutes a night, played 18 minutes per night in the Cup run and had 7g/9a in the Cup run. Sunny is a 15 minute a night guy that played 16 per night in the Cup run. He had 4g/5a on the Cup run and has scored at a 15g/16a pace over the last 3 years. He was fine when slotting up the lineup this year, but he didn't look like a true top 6 guy. Sunny brings a lot to the table and his contract is very good. But 2 years of his AAV as a utility knife through the middle/bottom 6 doesn't outweigh the value of 1 year of Perron's contribution as a legit top 50 NHL forward at $4M AAV.

Across the league, Perron is 18th in points this year and 45th since re-joining the team in 2018/19. He's a no-doubt 1st liner who has improved his game into and through his early 30s. His AAV is among the best values in the league. Exposing him in favor of two guys with less team-friendly AAVs over a 1 year difference in contract term would be an insanely poor decision.
I'd expose Tarasenko simply as bait to prevent someone more useful from getting taken. In other words, outside of the obvious exposed players like Sanford and Husso, you might consider putting Sunny and Tarasenko out there too just to ensure he's taken OVER Sunny or Husso, since you know Sanford et al won't be anyway. I really think he's gunshy now, and his strength isn't what it was.
 
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Reality Czech

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Why are we worried about Dunn?

Not protecting Perron should get Armstrong fired. That would be completely ridiculous on so many levels.

Anyways, looking forward to the finale tonight and then playoff time. I hope Husso is going again tonight. Why not?

I expect Binnington to get the start only because he'll likely want a tune-up game before the playoffs. Otherwise I'd say start Husso for sure.

The Wild certainly look like a team that doesn't have much left. They said during the game last night that they've allowed 3 or more goals in 9 straight games? They are ripe for the picking no matter who they play and if I were Colorado or Vegas finishing 2nd instead of 1st isn't the worst thing in the world. Maybe Minnesota can flip the switch back on, but I see them as a team that could be out of the playoffs in 4-5 games.

Regarding Perron, we have to protect him unless he has some urge to be the first player to have 4 separate stints with the same team during his career. He's proven his worth and I hope he retires a Blue at this point. I love Tarasenko, but I'd probably expose him before Perron at this point.
 

Stupendous Yappi

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I can't wrap my head around the logic of exposing Perron. He's without a doubt a top 5 player on this team, so the only justification would be the contract. If we're talking about contracts, I'd take his 1 remaining year at $4M over Tarasenko's 2 remaining years at $7.5M. There is a pretty decent chance that Tarasenko doesn't return to being a $7.5M caliber player and an overpay on a $7.5M deal is no less painful than whatever it would take to extend Perron.

Perron contributes more to the team right now and his points production this season has been better than any year of Tarasenko's career. Perron has played at a 29 goal and 72 point pace over the last 3 seasons. In the 3 seasons leading up to Tarasenko's injury issues, he played at a 36 goal and 72 point pace. Even assuming that Tarasenko returns to his pre-injury form, there is an argument that 1 year at $4M + an extension for Perron is better cap/asset management than 2 years at $7.5M + an extension for Tarasenko. I'm not sure that the extra 7 goals for this best-case-scenario Tarasenko is worth an extra $2.5M AAV. And this is before you even start worrying about Tarasenko's next 2 years potentially being a reduction in production from mid-20s and pre multiple shoulder surgery Tarasenko.

It is objectively clear that Perron loves the city/organization and will be open to an extension if he is protected. None of us know whether he will be open to a discount or whether he would be as eager to come back if Seattle takes him. But we can say with full confidence that he will negotiate an extension in good faith if he is on the roster next year. I just don't understand how it is worth exposing a 70 point player interested in returning to the franchise simply because he has 1 year remaining (at one of the best AAVs in the league).

We would have to protect Sunny AND Tarasenko in order to expose Perron. Both of them only have 2 years left on their deals, so you are really only buying yourself 1 extra year of either player than you get from Perron. Going beyond asset management, I love Sunny for what his but he is not more valuable to the team than Perron. Perron is a 70 point 1st line forward who plays 20 minutes a night, played 18 minutes per night in the Cup run and had 7g/9a in the Cup run. Sunny is a 15 minute a night guy that played 16 per night in the Cup run. He had 4g/5a on the Cup run and has scored at a 15g/16a pace over the last 3 years. He was fine when slotting up the lineup this year, but he didn't look like a true top 6 guy. Sunny brings a lot to the table and his contract is very good. But 2 years of his AAV as a utility knife through the middle/bottom 6 doesn't outweigh the value of 1 year of Perron's contribution as a legit top 50 NHL forward at $4M AAV.

Across the league, Perron is 18th in points this year and 45th since re-joining the team in 2018/19. He's a no-doubt 1st liner who has improved his game into and through his early 30s. His AAV is among the best values in the league. Exposing him in favor of two guys with less team-friendly AAVs over a 1 year difference in contract term would be an insanely poor decision.
I’m a lot less interested in discussing Perron than I am the notion of exposing Tarasenko. Do you think that’s likely? Assume for a moment Schwartz has been re-signed.

Even if he weren’t drafted, I’d think exposing Vlad would really injure that relationship. Is that issue enough to sway the front office’s position?

My personal position is that Sundqvist isn’t protected. Early in the season I thought it was arguable that he was the better choice over Perron. Maybe it’s still arguable, but it’s not what I would do.
 
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ort

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Colorado essentially gets to pick their opponent; assuming they can beat the Kings at will (which appears to be the case).
I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose tonight, as I imagine they'd be more comfortable with the Wild than the Blues.

Edit: the Avs board seems to think they're better off with home-ice in Rd.2 and playing the Blues in Rd. 1, than playing the "easier" Wild in Rd. 1 and starting Rd. 2 in Vegas. Tough to knock that logic.

A win also gives them the Presidents Trophy, which is mostly meaningless, but is still a pretty big accomplishment. Why not go for it?

Trying to pick your opponents is a fools game and I think Colorado will (and should) do the best they can and let the chips fall where they may.
 
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Stealth JD

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I’m a lot less interested in discussing Perron than I am the notion of exposing Tarasenko. Do you think that’s likely? Assume for a moment Schwartz has been re-signed.

Even if he weren’t drafted, I’d think exposing Vlad would really injure that relationship. Is that issue enough to sway the front office’s position?

My personal position is that Sundqvist isn’t protected. Early in the season I thought it was arguable that he was the better choice over Perron. Maybe it’s still arguable, but it’s not what I would do.

I think you've got to start thinking long-term and whether Tarasenko is in those plans. No way he's earning $7.5M on his next deal; I can't see the Blues being foolish enough to even offer such a thing. They bought his prime but he's now on the back-9 of his career. If he wants to stick around, he (and Schwartz) need to be accepting of a number that starts with a 5. They're not centers, they're not consistent and their availability has proven suspect. Obviously the team is much better when both are in the line-up and on their game; but you count on that beyond another 2 or 3 seasons and are you willing to pay for 5-7 years to get those remaining good years.

What Tarasenko's got going against him is that Hoffman is doing his job better than he is, at a lower rate. If you can re-sign Hoffman and be sure that an exposed Tarasenko is taken by the Kraken, I don't know that that wouldn't be the best case scenario, to be honest.
 
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BlueMed

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Colorado essentially gets to pick their opponent; assuming they can beat the Kings at will (which appears to be the case).
I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose tonight, as I imagine they'd be more comfortable with the Wild than the Blues.

Edit: the Avs board seems to think they're better off with home-ice in Rd.2 and playing the Blues in Rd. 1, than playing the "easier" Wild in Rd. 1 and starting Rd. 2 in Vegas. Tough to knock that logic.

As much as fans talk about teams throwing games intentionally, it really doesnt happen at the pro level.
 

joe galiba

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Tarasenko is pacing for 48 points after playing only 24 games since the first 10 games of 2019/20 and has been hurt or rehabbing most of the time since the Cup
his skating and physicality looks good, his back checking has been fine, his positioning has been good, his passing has been very good
his velocity on his shot is very good, but his accuracy isn't very good at all - and accuracy+velocity on his shot is what made him special
I would imagine the Blues would certainly want to give him a normal off season to see if can get back to what he was
 

BlueMed

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I can't wrap my head around the logic of exposing Perron. He's without a doubt a top 5 player on this team, so the only justification would be the contract. If we're talking about contracts, I'd take his 1 remaining year at $4M over Tarasenko's 2 remaining years at $7.5M. There is a pretty decent chance that Tarasenko doesn't return to being a $7.5M caliber player and an overpay on a $7.5M deal is no less painful than whatever it would take to extend Perron.

Perron contributes more to the team right now and his points production this season has been better than any year of Tarasenko's career. Perron has played at a 29 goal and 72 point pace over the last 3 seasons. In the 3 seasons leading up to Tarasenko's injury issues, he played at a 36 goal and 72 point pace. Even assuming that Tarasenko returns to his pre-injury form, there is an argument that 1 year at $4M + an extension for Perron is better cap/asset management than 2 years at $7.5M + an extension for Tarasenko. I'm not sure that the extra 7 goals for this best-case-scenario Tarasenko is worth an extra $2.5M AAV. And this is before you even start worrying about Tarasenko's next 2 years potentially being a reduction in production from mid-20s and pre multiple shoulder surgery Tarasenko.

It is objectively clear that Perron loves the city/organization and will be open to an extension if he is protected. None of us know whether he will be open to a discount or whether he would be as eager to come back if Seattle takes him. But we can say with full confidence that he will negotiate an extension in good faith if he is on the roster next year. I just don't understand how it is worth exposing a 70 point player interested in returning to the franchise simply because he has 1 year remaining (at one of the best AAVs in the league).

We would have to protect Sunny AND Tarasenko in order to expose Perron. Both of them only have 2 years left on their deals, so you are really only buying yourself 1 extra year of either player than you get from Perron. Going beyond asset management, I love Sunny for what his but he is not more valuable to the team than Perron. Perron is a 70 point 1st line forward who plays 20 minutes a night, played 18 minutes per night in the Cup run and had 7g/9a in the Cup run. Sunny is a 15 minute a night guy that played 16 per night in the Cup run. He had 4g/5a on the Cup run and has scored at a 15g/16a pace over the last 3 years. He was fine when slotting up the lineup this year, but he didn't look like a true top 6 guy. Sunny brings a lot to the table and his contract is very good. But 2 years of his AAV as a utility knife through the middle/bottom 6 doesn't outweigh the value of 1 year of Perron's contribution as a legit top 50 NHL forward at $4M AAV.

Across the league, Perron is 18th in points this year and 45th since re-joining the team in 2018/19. He's a no-doubt 1st liner who has improved his game into and through his early 30s. His AAV is among the best values in the league. Exposing him in favor of two guys with less team-friendly AAVs over a 1 year difference in contract term would be an insanely poor decision.

A simple solution would be to protect both Sunny and Perron while leaving Schwartz unprotected and reaching a handshake deal with him prior to the draft. Also, would they really take a 29 year old UFA in Schwartz in favor of a 24 year old RFA in Dunn? I'd be surprised if they did.
 
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BlueMed

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I think you've got to start thinking long-term and whether Tarasenko is in those plans. No way he's earning $7.5M on his next deal; I can't see the Blues being foolish enough to even offer such a thing. They bought his prime but he's now on the back-9 of his career. If he wants to stick around, he (and Schwartz) need to be accepting of a number that starts with a 5. They're not centers, they're not consistent and their availability has proven suspect. Obviously the team is much better when both are in the line-up and on their game; but you count on that beyond another 2 or 3 seasons and are you willing to pay for 5-7 years to get those remaining good years.

What Tarasenko's got going against him is that Hoffman is doing his job better than he is, at a lower rate. If you can re-sign Hoffman and be sure that an exposed Tarasenko is taken by the Kraken, I don't know that that wouldn't be the best case scenario, to be honest.

It's impossible to know what Tarasenko will look like next season, especially after he has a full off season to train and find those details in his game. In regards to Hoffman, Tarasenko did more than just score on the powerplay. He still played a physical, heavy game that supports Berube's system 5 on 5. Hoffman never provided that.
 
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MissouriMook

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Tarasenko is pacing for 48 points after playing only 24 games since the first 10 games of 2019/20 and has been hurt or rehabbing most of the time since the Cup
his skating and physicality looks good, his back checking has been fine, his positioning has been good, his passing has been very good
his velocity on his shot is very good, but his accuracy isn't very good at all - and accuracy+velocity on his shot is what made him special
I would imagine the Blues would certainly want to give him a normal off season to see if can get back to what he was
l1aynf7gued21.png
 

TheDizee

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Colorado essentially gets to pick their opponent; assuming they can beat the Kings at will (which appears to be the case).
I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose tonight, as I imagine they'd be more comfortable with the Wild than the Blues.

Edit: the Avs board seems to think they're better off with home-ice in Rd.2 and playing the Blues in Rd. 1, than playing the "easier" Wild in Rd. 1 and starting Rd. 2 in Vegas. Tough to knock that logic.
lol they wont even see round 2 whoever they play. teams about to get a nice dose of reality check when they realize the officials put the whistles away after tonight.
 

mk80

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Looks like we got the Wild B squad against most of the Blues best! Hope Perron can get a point tonight for his streak!

Let's Go Blues!
 
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