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Player Discussion McDavid

Mez

Mez

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Nov 16, 2017
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I tried to find a thread on him but couldn't.

McDavid has not had a game with more than 2 points since Dec 1, 2021. 7 points in his last 9 games. This has got to be one of the worst slumps of his career so far? what do you guys think is up?
 
Mez said:
I tried to find a thread on him but couldn't.

McDavid has not had a game with more than 2 points since Dec 1, 2021. 7 points in his last 9 games. This has got to be one of the worst slumps of his career so far? what do you guys think is up?
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Nagging injury
Lacking motivation
Lacking confidence
Seasonal depression
 
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McDavid's underlying metrics at 5vs5 are quite literally the best of his career. His line has never generated more xgf or had a better share of xgf, and his effect on his team's expected goals for is at a career high. His line is generating an insane amount of scoring chances and shots.

The reason that he doesn't have the production is that his line is massively underperforming his career norms in on ice shooting percentage, being at 7.57% compared to career average of 10.26%.

Seeing that oish% always regresses to the mean, I do not see a problem. To my eye, he has been as dominant as ever, the pucks just haven't been going in lately as much as they should.
 
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I think he's dinged up in a few places, and knows that the break is coming up soon. Maybe just trying to not let it get that much worse? Something is off for sure.
 
McBooya42 said:
I think he's dinged up in a few places, and knows that the break is coming up soon. Maybe just trying to not let it get that much worse? Something is off for sure.
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The Dave Tippett "timeout" injury recovery plan.
He does seem drained for whatever reason. Overused the first 20 games? Down in the dumps because it's obvious they will barely squeeze into playoffs let alone win a game there.
 
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Rengorlex said:
McDavid's underlying metrics at 5vs5 are quite literally the best of his career. His line has never generated more xgf or had a better share of xgf, and his effect on his team's expected goals for is at a career high. His line is generating an insane amount of scoring chances and shots.

The reason that he doesn't have the production is that his line is massively underperforming his career norms in on ice shooting percentage, being at 7.57% compared to career average of 10.26%.

Seeing that oish% always regresses to the mean, I do not see a problem. To my eye, he has been as dominant as ever, the pucks just haven't been going in lately as much as they should.
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I imagine his lines shooting percentage will go up when Kane finds his rhythm.
 
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Has not been the same since scoring against STL and getting drilled into the post collarbone first . Although maybe something else going on as his speed and puck handling seem off as well
 
Something is definitely off with him and has been for some time. Hopefully whatever it is stops bothering him and soon because the rest of the season is going to be a sprint.
 
Mez said:
I tried to find a thread on him but couldn't.

McDavid has not had a game with more than 2 points since Dec 1, 2021. 7 points in his last 9 games. This has got to be one of the worst slumps of his career so far? what do you guys think is up?
Click to expand...

Learning to play and commit to defense, hence his offensive production falls.
And the marathon of 80 game regular season isnt always that fun?
 
Rengorlex said:
McDavid's underlying metrics at 5vs5 are quite literally the best of his career. His line has never generated more xgf or had a better share of xgf, and his effect on his team's expected goals for is at a career high. His line is generating an insane amount of scoring chances and shots.

The reason that he doesn't have the production is that his line is massively underperforming his career norms in on ice shooting percentage, being at 7.57% compared to career average of 10.26%.

Seeing that oish% always regresses to the mean, I do not see a problem. To my eye, he has been as dominant as ever, the pucks just haven't been going in lately as much as they should.
Click to expand...
Could it be that playing less minutes and having the rest of his team providing depth scoring is keeping his totals down?

I always assumed that when there were others producing throughout the lineup and he didn't have to play 28 minutes a night that his production would dip. If that's the case I'm not bothered by it. I figured the only reason him and Drai were putting up obscene numbers is because they were the only two doing any sort of lifting and with a properly fleshed out roster those numbers wouldn't be achievable.
 
GOilers88 said:
Could it be that playing less minutes and having the rest of his team providing depth scoring is keeping his totals down?

I always assumed that when there were others producing throughout the lineup and he didn't have to play 28 minutes a night that his production would dip. If that's the case I'm not bothered by it. I figured the only reason him and Drai were putting up obscene numbers is because they were the only two doing any sort of lifting and with a properly fleshed out roster those numbers wouldn't be achievable.
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Like he said, McDavid's line is just not finishing the way it should be right now.

We've seen time and time again how an unsustainable OISH regresses to the mean. Yamamoto's 5v5 OISH% in his breakout year was 12.5%, and it's since regressed to a reasonable 8%, and his production has obviously declined. Hell, the same thing happened with Stutzle at the start of the season, and I predicted that his production was going to improve based on the same metric.

McDavid will naturally have a higher OISH% given the quality of chances that he generates. His line has historically shot in the 10-11% range, but this year is shooting at 7.53%, the lowest of his career by a large margin. He and his teammates aren't finishing chances, which also explains the huge discrepancy between his xGF and actual GF.

Sooner or later Yams/Pulju/Kane/McDavid himself are going to start finishing, and his production is going to skyrocket.
 
I think our expectations for McDavid are a bit out-of-whack. We expect him to get 3-4 points every game and when he stops doing that, we think something's wrong, but it's just simple regression to the mean due to adjustments that defences start to make. Besides, I think he'll pick it up after the all-star break as he always does.
 
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Rengorlex said:
McDavid's underlying metrics at 5vs5 are quite literally the best of his career. His line has never generated more xgf or had a better share of xgf, and his effect on his team's expected goals for is at a career high. His line is generating an insane amount of scoring chances and shots.

The reason that he doesn't have the production is that his line is massively underperforming his career norms in on ice shooting percentage, being at 7.57% compared to career average of 10.26%.

Seeing that oish% always regresses to the mean, I do not see a problem. To my eye, he has been as dominant as ever, the pucks just haven't been going in lately as much as they should.
Click to expand...

For a while I have been convinced that he has some sort of hand or wrist injury. Even by his standards he is deferring way, way too much.

His patented step into the slot and fire one move has been completely non-existent. He'll always have solid underlying numbers due to his ability to push the play with his feet, but he isn't bearing down on his chances and is playing waaaaaaaay too cute. He's been around the game a lot, but not inside the game.

He's gone into ~10 game stretches where he isn't quite right, but it's been two solid months of it now without really much of a glimpse of normality. The Nashville and Vancouver games were the only ones where he looked somewhat like normal, but even then he wasn't all there.
 
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Llamamoto said:
Like he said, McDavid's line is just not finishing the way it should be right now.

We've seen time and time again how an unsustainable OISH regresses to the mean. Yamamoto's 5v5 OISH% in his breakout year was 12.5%, and it's since regressed to a reasonable 8%, and his production has obviously declined. Hell, the same thing happened with Stutzle at the start of the season, and I predicted that his production was going to improve based on the same metric.

McDavid will naturally have a higher OISH% given the quality of chances that he generates. His line has historically shot in the 10-11% range, but this year is shooting at 7.53%, the lowest of his career by a large margin. He and his teammates aren't finishing chances, which also explains the huge discrepancy between his xGF and actual GF.

Sooner or later Yams/Pulju/Kane/McDavid himself are going to start finishing, and his production is going to skyrocket.
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Fair assessment. I still think if his minutes come down to reasonable numbers and they start rolling 4 lines consistently that his production is going to take quite a hit. I think the biggest factor in McDrai's obscene point totals is the fact that they get virtually all of the PP time every game, in OT, and play just as much as top pairing defensemen. With a more well rounded roster I think it's natural to see a dip there. I do think he's capable of leading the league don't get me wrong, but it partially comes at the expense of wonky icetime distribution.

Or I'm just talking out of my ass which is always a very real possibility.
 
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GOilers88 said:
Fair assessment. I still think if his minutes come down to reasonable numbers and they start rolling 4 lines consistently that his production is going to take quite a hit. I think the biggest factor in McDrai's obscene point totals is the fact that they get virtually all of the PP time every game, in OT, and play just as much as top pairing defensemen. With a more well rounded roster I think it's natural to see a dip there. I do think he's capable of leading the league don't get me wrong, but it partially comes at the expense of wonky icetime distribution.

Or I'm just talking out of my ass which is always a very real possibility.
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Haha your argument makes sense, but I've seen numerous examples where star players' production actually increases with lower ice time. Fatigue is a real factor, and more energy with less minutes can sometimes increase production. We'll see I guess. :)
 
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