Matthews the only player who can beat Gretzky record goal?

[KevSkillz4]

If he continue score like that every season, do you think he can beat Gretzky goals?

 

[JoVel]

If he scores at a 60 goal pace every season...? Well yes, of course he could do it, duh.

The chances of that happening are less than 1%.

 

[A1LeafNation]

OV yes.

Matthews no.

 

[bobholly39]

Let's say he scores 7 more goals this season to give him a nice even 200 career goals. He'll be 24 to start next season. Here's a few scenarios:

Optimistic projection:

Age 24 to 29 season (6 seasons) Average of ~50 goals per = 300
Age 30 to 34 season (5 seasons) Average of ~40 goals per = 200
Age 35 to 38 seasons (4 seasons) Average of ~30 goals per = 120

Total = 820

Highly conservative projection:

Age 24 to 29 season (6 seasons) Average of ~45 goals per = 270
Age 30 to 34 season (5 seasons) Average of ~35 goals per = 175
Age 35 to 38 seasons (4 seasons) Average of ~25 goals per = 100
Substract ~100 for injuries + lack of consistency/lockouts etc = - 100

Total = 645


Middle ground projection:

Age 24 to 29 season (6 seasons) Average of ~45 goals per = 270
Age 30 to 34 season (5 seasons) Average of ~35 goals per = 175
Age 35 to 38 seasons (4 seasons) Average of ~25 goals per = 100

Total = 745

Based on his level of consistency since day 1, I expect he'll age very well as a goal-scorer, minus any major injuries (or unexpected falling off a cliff in performance, which is hard to predict). I'd guess:

~90% chance he surpasses 600 career goals
~50% chance he surpasses 700 career goals
~10% chance he nears 800 career goals

894? That's highly unlikely. Not impossible I suppose - but I'd guess 1% chance if that. We'll get a better sense over the next 2-3 seasons. If he starts peaking at ~60-65 goals, maybe. If he caps out at ~50, probably not. And the peak isn't even as important as what he does starting at age ~28-30+. Will have to see how long he can maintain a high goal-scoring pace.

 

[BlueBaron]

His goal scoring rate suggests its mathematically possible but his health issues make that unlikely.

 

[Sheppy]

If he continue score like that every season, do you think he can beat Gretzky goals?

I mean... sure. If he continues to score like that every season.

 

[Primary Assist]

Me, with my username, walking into this thread.

 

[Contenderorpretender]

Let's say he scores 7 more goals this season to give him a nice even 200 career goals. He'll be 24 to start next season. Here's a few scenarios:

Optimistic projection:

Age 24 to 29 season (6 seasons) Average of ~50 goals per = 300
Age 30 to 34 season (5 seasons) Average of ~40 goals per = 200
Age 35 to 38 seasons (4 seasons) Average of ~30 goals per = 120

Total = 820

Highly conservative projection:

Age 24 to 29 season (6 seasons) Average of ~45 goals per = 270
Age 30 to 34 season (5 seasons) Average of ~35 goals per = 175
Age 35 to 38 seasons (4 seasons) Average of ~25 goals per = 100
Substract ~100 for injuries + lack of consistency/lockouts etc = - 100

Total = 645


Middle ground projection:

Age 24 to 29 season (6 seasons) Average of ~45 goals per = 270
Age 30 to 34 season (5 seasons) Average of ~35 goals per = 175
Age 35 to 38 seasons (4 seasons) Average of ~25 goals per = 100

Total = 745

Based on his level of consistency since day 1, I expect he'll age very well as a goal-scorer, minus any major injuries (or unexpected falling off a cliff in performance, which is hard to predict). I'd guess:

~90% chance he surpasses 600 career goals
~50% chance he surpasses 700 career goals
~10% chance he nears 800 career goals

894? That's highly unlikely. Not impossible I suppose - but I'd guess 1% chance if that. We'll get a better sense over the next 2-3 seasons. If he starts peaking at ~60-65 goals, maybe. If he caps out at ~50, probably not. And the peak isn't even as important as what he does starting at age ~28-30+. Will have to see how long he can maintain a high goal-scoring pace.

This is a great breakdown of projections and possible scenarios.

 

[Canovin]

Going to be hard with only 3 years left in Toronto

 

[McNuge]

I don't even think Ovi catches Gretz what makes people think Matthews will?

Ovi has proven to be the better scorer of the 2 and has been consistently healthy his entire career.

 

[Holymakinaw]

Nope. Ovie won't be able to do it, and neither will Matthews. It's way too unattainable a record.

 

[Mickey Marner]

a) which one?
b) no, he can't

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Ovechkin is the only one.

 

[KaprizovSaveUs]

The only reason Ovechkin is within sniffing distance is because he’s been remarkable healthy. It wouldn’t surprise me if Matthews has already lost more games to injury in his career than Ovi.

 

[Zap Rowsdower]

Ovi will do it. He's so selfish he'll play until he breaks it even if he's hurting his team. I wouldn't be surprised to see him out there at 50 years old scoring 2 goals a year until he breaks. He's lazy and doesn't skate much now so wouldn't be much of a difference standing in one spot all game when he's 35 vs 55

 

[BlueBaron]

I don't even think Ovi catches Gretz what makes people think Matthews will?

Ovi has proven to be the better scorer of the 2 and has been consistently healthy his entire career.

Pretty weak case and typical of Matthews haters. Matthews has been the best even strength scorer since he entered the league, that is a fact. A Rocket threat his whole career and has already pretty much won this one.

What would make people think the best even strength scorer who got 40 as a rookie might rival Ovechkin? Maybe compare his career goal rate to Ovies

If you're asking questions like that I have to ask, what makes you think you understand hockey at all? It's a no brainer common sense comparison. Ovie is fading, who do you look to? The next guy.

I find it shocking people would rather look like idiots than admit the obvious.....

 

[Sendhelp2Anaheim]

Going to be hard with only 3 years left in Toronto

He’s going to be remembered as an Arizona coyote

 

[Dion TheFluff]

Going to be hard with only 3 years left in Toronto

why would he leave Toronto?

 

[kthx]

Just want to say that there's always a possibility, and we might see the greatest goalscorer of all time playing in juniors right now. Gretzkys record will be broken, I just dont know when.

 

[Sendhelp2Anaheim]

Pretty weak case and typical of Matthews haters. Matthews has been the best even strength scorer since he entered the league, that is a fact. A Rocket threat his whole career and has already pretty much won this one.

What would make people think the best even strength scorer who got 40 as a rookie might rival Ovechkin? Maybe compare his career goal rate to Ovies

If you're asking questions like that I have to ask, what makes you think you understand hockey at all? It's a no brainer common sense comparison. Ovie is fading, who do you look to? The next guy.

I find it shocking people would rather look like idiots than admit the obvious.....

Isn’t ovies pace like +100 goals or something by 23?

 

[ThatsSoSlavin]

No chance imo, OV was scoring 50 a year since he came in the league, also the shortened seasons won’t help

 

[Pi]

I think Matthews will hit 700+ but he will need to get better at scoring powerplay goals if he wants any chance of beating Gretzky. As ridiculous as it sounds, he's the best ES goal scorer but on the powerplay, Leafs don't really use him like Ovechkin, Stamkos etc. If they can use him more like that and he can develop that one timer more, he'll put up 800+. Still pretty far out to beat Gretzky.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

I calculated that Ovechkin had about a 30% chance of doing it... and that was with 15 years of data to show his trends.

Ovechkin has won 9 RRs and has an INCREDIBLE availability rate (he misses about 1-2 games per season on average) and, yet, he is far from a lock.

Matthews would need that kind of domination, which he only showed he could do this year, for about 15 more years to do it.

I mean, he could, he has the talent, but it is VERY unlikely.

 

[BlueBaron]

Isn’t ovies pace like +100 goals or something by 23?

Raw total he probably has a big lead. Matthews wasnt getting the ice time or powerplay time he is now until Keefe (not to mention Marner time) but his per game rate compares well. Early on the even strength goals are his only edge. Matthews has also missed a lot of gamees already.

Its beyond a longshot and everyone knows it. He'd basically need to never get injured again and always play with a Marner level talent.

 

[ijuka]

Raw total he probably has a big lead. Matthews wasnt getting the ice time or powerplay time he is now until Keefe (not to mention Marner time) but his per game rate compares well.

First 5 seasons Ovechkin was at 0.68 goals per game and Matthews 0.59 so I'm not sure how it "compares well".