Matthews Leafs reality

[AuraSphere]

Don't think he would do our boy bieber dirty by leaving us )

 

[therealkoho]

That’s literally impossible. The most any single player can get is 20%

On an 85 cap it’s only 17 max.

Plus all their contracts save marner/Tavares/rielly
Are up.

They. Won’t sign players that take up that room.

so the cap isn't going to move 7/8m in the next few years, now that they're back to full houses mostly?

 

[therealkoho]

Let's be honest, money will never be the reason he leaves.

There is never going to be a scenario where the Leafs say "He was asking too much so we let him go." A player of Matthews' caliber will get paid what he wants in Toronto.

Money would never be an issue for the Leafs, ever! Cap however can and could be an issue.

All I'm saying is don't count your chickens before they hatch, we've no idea what's going to happen over the next couple of years, none.

 

[kb]

Money would never be an issue for the Leafs, ever! Cap however can and could be an issue.

All I'm saying is don't count your chickens before they hatch, we've no idea what's going to happen over the next couple of years, none.

Again my good sir....show us a competitive team who has the cap space to add $17 million without gutting their team?

Honestly, it's hard to do.

 

[therealkoho]

Again my good sir....show us a competitive team who has the cap space to add $17 million without gutting their team?

Simple question.

It's what the player and agent ask for and let's say he has a SC and a couple of Rockets under his belt, you don't think he say's I want to be the the first player with a max contract, mainly so he becomes the de-facto highest paid player in the league and the truth is no matter what he'll have suitors. In 3 summers the cap could very well be sitting at 90m, no one knows.

The Kings will have room, Lightning will have room, Rags can make room, Colarado will have room, and yes even the Leafs will have room, but it will be up to Matty where he goes. He might choose glitz and glamour, he may choose the favourable tax situation, he might want the bright lights and big city, or a rocky mountain high!

Look we all love Toronto as a city and a destination, it's a great place to win, it's in one of the most beautiful parts of our country, but who knows what can happen. I'm not trying to jinx it but the reality is, he holds the cards, not the management and certainly not the fanbase.

There are a lot of teams capable of accommodating him and whatever he wants.

 

[IPS]

I'm not trying to jinx it

But you're sure trying to make it a bigger issue than it needs to be.

how many superstars have left their team after signing the same 5 year contract Matthews did?

 

[Jmo89]

I'm not concerned at all with him leaving but every team in the league would give him a max contract if they had the opportunity

Yeah, but not many will already have almost 12M allocated toward that contract.

Which means unless the stars align for a team, he's either looking at a team rebuilding with cap space or a team gutting themselves. I personally don't think either will be appealing to Matthews over just staying out.

I guess I should have said, as long as the Leafs show him the money he will stay.

 

[egd27]

If he were to leave(I don't think he will) it will be to LA, Vegas or New York, IMO.
I don't believe Arizona is even a thought.

I see 88 in New York and 34 in the US Southwest IF they were to leave.

 

[WillyC]

The most likely destination for Matthews after his next contract?… a bronze statue on Legend’s Row.

 

[Ciao]

So what if he wants 20m and they only have 10m in space?

The Leafs should make sure that he has enough Canadian endorsement deals in place to make sure that it never crosses his mind to leave for more money elsewhere.

 

[Legion34]

so the cap isn't going to move 7/8m in the next few years, now that they're back to full houses mostly?

Yes and no. The players owed about 1 billion dollars from pandemic losses based on the 50/50’split

They are paying it back over years. With the cap going up 1 million a year until it is all paid off.

Projections were that the cap would go up max 1 mill per year until 2025-2026. Then go up.

Matthews contract will expire before the cap is allowed to be based on 50/50’again based on the current agreement

Of course they could decide to let it go up more to avoid a huge jump. But where we are now all projections indicate the cap will be 85 or less

 

[Drytoast]

Interestingly, the subjects of points 4 and 5 can be argued as both positives and negatives.

He wants to win a cup, so he stays.
The media here is huge which affords him opportunities other markets won’t

If he wants to really win a cup, he would stack a team with stars on it, like a Tampa Bay or Colorado or the like for 1 or 2 seasons.

 

[Menzinger]

Why are certain hockey pundits and fans speculating Matthews leaving? This is the best place for playing in terms of attention and things to do hockey wise.

He hasn't shown any signs of disatisfaction or sherking away from responsibilities of a media heavy market.

Because it's clickbait for views. None of them have a shred of insight into what Matthews is thinking.

The sad fact about the hockey media is that most guys on tv aren't real journalists their just "analysts" aka entertainers.

 

[Menzinger]

Why he would leave?

-He hates the taxes.
-He hates how we handled COVID.
-He likes the United States better.
-The media here is the worst in the league.
-He wants to win a cup.

Why he would stay

- Beiber is a Leaf fan (ugh)
- Wants to play with Marner
- original 6 teams are always special
- winning here would make him a god
- Sponsorship pay is nice
- loves the attention from fans.

Matthews actually seems like he thrives with media attention. Hes one of the few guys in the league who actively WANTS to be a star. I don't think he'd have much interest in going to a quite team like a lot of players do.

 

[Mr_Fun]

I know the media/scrutiny around here is brutal; I'm sure if someone farts in a room, there are plenty of people that can tell whether or not its AM's brand. That said, AM seems much more comfortable with the attention than your average bear. Moreover, I don't believe TO is a bad environment for him, at least that's how it looks on the surface.

 

[Stephen]

Matthews is going to be a big ticket player on his next deal and whatever team that could offer him a $15 million contract or whatever is going to have to pitch a big part of their core over board, lose another elite player or be a rebuilding stage club. Doesn't make sense. This league doesn't have a Yankee/Laker stage.

 

[2 Slick]

Even though he's from Arizona, I don't see him leaving in two years to play in front of a crowd of 5000 with a team that will be bottom feeding for the next 10-15 years.

 

[Cotton]

He’s not leaving, people needs to have a little more faith. We drafted him and were extremely fair on only his second contract. And he’s been on a competitive team playing with good players who he has grown close to. He may love home, which is why he spends his off seasons there. But he is way too competitive a guy to downgrade in nearly every conceivable way to sign there at this point, to join a team that is in a rebuild, and baring a move to Arizona I would assume he has a modicum of loyalty towards the Leafs to at least continue building towards playoff success, rather than bailing.

The fact he has a NTC built into his final year I believe is to give him more leverage in negotiating his next contract, which will certainly begin the second it can begin. And if he had a mind to leave he wouldn’t of worried about a NTC - And don’t forget Bob Mackenzie said Matthews camp was seeking an 8 year deal, not 5. He’s staying, but people just need to wrap their heads around the fact he’s going to be the highest paid player in the league. And until then try and ignore the dumb-dumbs looking to provoke you with the fantasy that he’s itching to bail.

And I don’t know why McDavid gets brought up whenever this Auston stuff is, but regardless of Matthews staying or leaving, McDavid isn’t signing here. He literally said in an interview something along the lines of the only thing he loves more than coming back home is leaving again. He’s is super private and does not do well with media, he’s easily irritated, our media would chew him up far worse than they did with Kessel, and he knows it.

 

[Drytoast]

Matthews actually seems like he thrives with media attention. Hes one of the few guys in the league who actively WANTS to be a star. I don't think he'd have much interest in going to a quite team like a lot of players do.

Not so sure about that. First few seasons interviewing him looked painful. Then you can point to direct confrontation with our media. This isn't about being a star...all teams get attention. He's a star anywhere he goes because he's one of the main faces of the league. But it's only really here where it really digs into your personal life. He might say "I've tasted the spot light in Toronto, was a blast...now I just want to win a cup. Nothing else matters"

 

[Drytoast]

Even though he's from Arizona, I don't see him leaving in two years to play in front of a crowd of 5000 with a team that will be bottom feeding for the next 10-15 years.

LOL if he leaves it's NOT to go to Arizona.

 

[Machinae]

LOL if he leaves it's NOT to go to Arizona.

Yeah, it's not Arizona you should be worried about, it's Los Angeles.

 

[BlueBaron]

I’m actually willing to bet Matthews and Marner’s asks on their next contracts won’t be quite as aggressive as people would maybe think from their respective seconds.

I could see Matthews taking a 1 maybe 2 mil bump max. I think if the last few years have hopefully taught them anything, it’s that they will benefit from leaving a few million dollars on the table between them.

If the stay together they will get insane numbers. That has to be a factor. If Auston wants to chase Ovie he will want Mitch around.

 

[TheShape]

I'm torn on this one, I wish we locked him in for 8 years then he could do whatever after, 2 years away feels way too soon. Something tells me if he leaves it's for LA, they'll have acres of cap space and he'll fit in with their competitive timeline if everything goes to plan.

Toronto will offer him more money than anyone else + endorsements. Matthews strikes me as a guy who loves the spotlight, but the media here is straight up poison and he's already got snippy with them a handful of times. That stuff wears on a person.

 

[BlueBaron]

Yeah, it's not Arizona you should be worried about, it's Los Angeles.

You should stop worrying. He's not going anywhere.

This is a very special place to play hockey and Auston gets that. You don't ever see stars trying to leave 06 teams. It's not a thing.

 

[Mess]

This wouldn't even be a concern or possibility if our GM was wise enough to secure our franchise player to the full 8 year max deal.

Compared to McDavid's 8 year @ $12.5 mil contract as the ceiling, and comparable, this should have been an 8 year @ $11.634 mil deal.

If Matthews should leave this will be all on the Leafs GM, because he only secured 1 year of Free Agency status, instead of 4 at this current CH% and amount.