Matt Roy 6x5 75

[hockeykicker]

 

[Hivemind]

This is a lot of years and a lot of money for Roy. I like him, but dang.

e; TSN now saying different numbers for Roy. "Only" 6 years?

 

[Kalopsia]

Matt Roy for 6x5.75M sounds fantastic to me compared to 6x5M for Zadorov or 6x4.5M (with full NTC) for 34 year old Tanev.

 

[SkinsFan09]

It is crazy how some sports fans literally think any contract beyond 2 years is too long and risky.

 

[Hivemind]

It is crazy how some sports fans literally think any contract beyond 2 years is too long and risky.

I personally was hoping for a 4 year deal for Roy.

The previously Washington D contract this will most easily be compared to is Matt Niskanen, for numerous obvious reasons. Nisky and Roy definitely are not the same player, but it's a $5.75M UFA signing both times with 6 and 7 years respectively.

Roy is currently 29 years old, he doesn't turn 30 until March. The Capitals will definitely get some good years out of him, but the bulk of his peak years are now in the past. The contract runs until he's 36 (assuming Friedman's 6 year term is correct, and not the 7 years showing on CapFriendly). By contrast, Matt Niskanen just turned 37 a couple weeks ago, and he's been out of the league for 4 years now already, following a sharp decline in his age 32 season. Matt Roy is stepping into the role vacated by Nick Jensen, who the Capitals just traded away following a sharp decline in his age 33 season.

So that's why the extra term on this deal does give me pause.

 

[BackToTheBasics]

I personally was hoping for a 4 year deal for Roy.

The previously Washington D contract this will most easily be compared to is Matt Niskanen, for numerous obvious reasons. Nisky and Roy definitely are not the same player, but it's a $5.75M UFA signing both times with 6 and 7 years respectively.

Roy is currently 29 years old, he doesn't turn 30 until March. The Capitals will definitely get some good years out of him, but the bulk of his peak years are now in the past. The contract runs until he's 36 (assuming Friedman's 6 year term is correct, and not the 7 years showing on CapFriendly). By contrast, Matt Niskanen just turned 37 a couple weeks ago, and he's been out of the league for 4 years now already, following a sharp decline in his age 32 season. Matt Roy is stepping into the role vacated by Nick Jensen, who the Capitals just traded away following a sharp decline in his age 33 season.

So that's why the extra term on this deal does give me pause.

He'll have just turned 35 once his contract comes to an end. So the Caps get his age 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, and 34 seasons assuming he stays with the Caps for the duration of his contract. It doesn't look bad at all looking at it that way.

 

[Ridley Simon]

And the Kings replaced him w Joel Edmundson. At 3.8m vs 5.75m

Kings should’ve shaved 2m off elsewhere, methinks

 

[PlushMinus]

By contrast, Matt Niskanen just turned 37 a couple weeks ago, and he's been out of the league for 4 years now already, following a sharp decline in his age 32 season.

I don't understand what Niskanen's decline has to do with Matt Roy? Every human being is unique. It's impossible to know what Roy is going to be like when he's 32.

There are lots of really good d-men still playing in the league at 32 and beyond.

 

[Calicaps]

I don't understand what Niskanen's decline has to do with Matt Roy? Every human being is unique. It's impossible to know what Roy is going to be like when he's 32.

There are lots of really good d-men still playing in the league at 32 and beyond.

Also, IIRC, Nisky had a bounce-back year on a bad Philly team the year after, so much so that the Flyers wanted to extend him. But he retired instead, citing in part not wanting to deal with the Covid nonsense. I recall that Friedman once mentioned that he would love to interview Niskanen about his decision to walk away when he could still play. Said he was fascinated by that since it's so unusual and so many guys stay too long.

 

[PlushMinus]

And the Kings replaced him w Joel Edmundson. At 3.8m vs 5.75m

Kings should’ve shaved 2m off elsewhere, methinks

The Kings have made some horrible trades and signings so far. It's frightening how much damage incompetent GM's can do to a franchise. Setting them back for years.

LA starting to join the list of Pittsburgh, Toronto, Edmonton. At least the Oilers almost won the Cup but they have been awful for years

 

[RandyHolt]

Do any of our additions bring any physicality to the table to keep me entertained between goals? Or are they all cut from the Tomas "the Check Hit Man" Fleishmann mold. I'll die on the hill our physical play was THE key cog in winning the cup but with even Wilson neutered I am forced to admit hits are a thing of the past more than ever.

 

[Kalopsia]

Do any of our additions being any physicality to the table to keep me entertained between goals? Or are they all cut from the Tomas "the Check Hit Man" Fleishmann mold. I'll die on the hill our physical play was THE key cog in winning the cup but with even Wilson neutered I am forced to admit hits are a thing of the past more than ever.

Duhaime was 29th in the NHL in hits last year. He'll drop the gloves too. Roy was second on the Kings in hits. He's not quite Fehervary's level but in terms of hitting he's a big upgrade from Jensen. PLD, Mangiapane, Raddysh, and Chychrun are all about a hit per game players. The Caps lost a lot of their hitting with Beck traded and NAK walking, but I think they just about replaced it.

 

[Calicaps]

Duhaime was 29th in the NHL in hits last year. He'll drop the gloves too. Roy was second on the Kings in hits. He's not quite Fehervary's level but in terms of hitting he's a big upgrade from Jensen. PLD, Mangiapane, Raddysh, and Chychrun are all about a hit per game players. The Caps lost a lot of their hitting with Beck traded and NAK walking, but I think they just about replaced it.

If true, that's great. Spread it around more and bring the pain.

 

[Hivemind]

I don't understand what Niskanen's decline has to do with Matt Roy? Every human being is unique. It's impossible to know what Roy is going to be like when he's 32.

There are lots of really good d-men still playing in the league at 32 and beyond.

I was citing two obvious examples for Caps fans to draw comparison to (Niskanen and Jensen), given that they've been the last two mobile, shutdown RD that the Capitals have employed, and both of them had a sharp decline at a pretty similar age. I don't want to get all "aging curves" here, but they aren't the only examples, just two that are very easily remembered for Capitals fans. TJ Brodie dropped off a cliff this year at age 33 (he just turned 34 in June, a month after the Leafs had been eliminated). ME Vlasic imploded around his age 32 season.

Is this a guarantee Roy will dip at the end of this contract? Of course not. But there's a fair bit of risk there, and thus my trepidation regarding the length of this contract. I still like Roy as an addition, I just wish the deal was 4 years instead of 6 (and I'm already happy that the initial report of 7 years appears to be incorrect).

 

[RedRocking]

I was citing two obvious examples for Caps fans to draw comparison to (Niskanen and Jensen), given that they've been the last two mobile, shutdown RD that the Capitals have employed, and both of them had a sharp decline at a pretty similar age. I don't want to get all "aging curves" here, but they aren't the only examples, just two that are very easily remembered for Capitals fans. TJ Brodie dropped off a cliff this year at age 33 (he just turned 34 in June, a month after the Leafs had been eliminated). ME Vlasic imploded around his age 32 season.

Is this a guarantee Roy will dip at the end of this contract? Of course not. But there's a fair bit of risk there, and thus my trepidation regarding the length of this contract. I still like Roy as an addition, I just wish the deal was 4 years instead of 6 (and I'm already happy that the initial report of 7 years appears to be incorrect).

Lighten up, man. Could be worse - like giving a 6 yr deal to a 34 year old Chris Tanev a la Toronto. Or the LAK FO getting hammered, and signing Edmundson to 4x4M. Just sayin’…

 

[Ridley Simon]

Lighten up, man. Could be worse - like giving a 6 yr deal to a 34 year old Chris Tanev a la Toronto. Or the LAK FO getting hammered, and signing Edmundson to 4x4M. Just sayin’…

Queen Bee is complaining? LOL. Colour me SHOCKED

 

[PlushMinus]

I was citing two obvious examples for Caps fans to draw comparison to (Niskanen and Jensen), given that they've been the last two mobile, shutdown RD that the Capitals have employed, and both of them had a sharp decline at a pretty similar age. I don't want to get all "aging curves" here, but they aren't the only examples, just two that are very easily remembered for Capitals fans. TJ Brodie dropped off a cliff this year at age 33 (he just turned 34 in June, a month after the Leafs had been eliminated). ME Vlasic imploded around his age 32 season.

Is this a guarantee Roy will dip at the end of this contract? Of course not. But there's a fair bit of risk there, and thus my trepidation regarding the length of this contract. I still like Roy as an addition, I just wish the deal was 4 years instead of 6 (and I'm already happy that the initial report of 7 years appears to be incorrect).

Bmac seems to have a habit of signing players to longer terms. But he also seems to be quite good at moving them out before they finish their contracts.

I have been fairly critical of Bmac over the last couple of years but I think he's absolutely crushed it in the last two weeks. PLD is the only deal I am worried about - that really is a coin toss, but we just have to wait until the season starts.

 

[Jags]

Is this a guarantee Roy will dip at the end of this contract? Of course not. But there's a fair bit of risk there, and thus my trepidation regarding the length of this contract.

5.75 is 2018 Oshie money. That number against the cap in 2027 won't be a big deal, and Mac has gotten us out of literally every problematic contract that's come up. And he's been pretty good at the tea leaves, too, letting go of guys that might be starting to get overripe. Including Niskanen and Jensen.

And what coveted 29-year-old doesn't get term in free agency? He'll have just turned 35 when this deal ends, and I don't think he'll be a Cap at that point if he declines or we have kids pushing to replace him. That's been the pattern with Mac. He hung on to a handful of older vets when we were contending, but only the ones that could play, and he parted ways with all of them when the time was right. Preferring vets got in the way a couple times and cost us, but that always seemed to be Mac acquiescing to his coach's preference than his own.

I don't see anything to worry about here. The number's good, it's not max term (so there was clearly pushback from Mac), and we like the player. Let's try to enjoy it, yeah?

 

[Hivemind]

Bmac seems to have a habit of signing players to longer terms. But he also seems to be quite good at moving them out before they finish their contracts.

Mac has gotten us out of literally every problematic contract that's come up

This is where a big chunk of our difference in opinion lies. I don't really consider things like taking back worse contracts (PLD to ditch Kuemper) or having $3.9M in dead cap space thanks to 50% retention (Kuznetsov) when the team is pressed above the salary cap as "getting out of" contracts very well. And that's not touching on the presumably $15M in LTIRment space the team is using.

 

[HTFN]

This is where a big chunk of our difference in opinion lies. I don't really consider things like taking back worse contracts (PLD to ditch Kuemper) or having $3.9M in dead cap space thanks to 50% retention (Kuznetsov) when the team is pressed above the salary cap as "getting out of" contracts very well. And that's not touching on the presumably $15M in LTIRment space the team is using.

That's focusing a lot on the negatives. I'm sorry it wasn't perfect but this isn't a video game, anybody with sense knows they did a ton for the franchise this year while compromising very little.

 

[PlushMinus]

This is where a big chunk of our difference in opinion lies. I don't really consider things like taking back worse contracts (PLD to ditch Kuemper) or having $3.9M in dead cap space thanks to 50% retention (Kuznetsov) when the team is pressed above the salary cap as "getting out of" contracts very well. And that's not touching on the presumably $15M in LTIRment space the team is using.

Is there a franchise in the league that doesn't have some buyout money on the books? Or a couple of inflated / hard to move contracts?

Everybody makes mistakes - I'd rather have a GM who makes a couple than a walking clusterf*** like Dubas, who built a hopelessly lopsided roster in Toronto that they are still trying (and failing) to fix. And who is now single handedly making the Pens even worse (which is hilarious btw and I love it) than they were.

Other honourable mentions: Rob Blake (Kings) and Mike Grier (Sharks). The guy for the Isles who is 100 years old also comes to mind.

I will add one more thing: it's important to consider your expectations around your fav team. With the Caps, how do you view them? As a contender (me = nope). As a competitive team who has a shot at the playoffs (me = yep). If they miss the playoffs does it really bother me (nope).
The team Bmac has assembled for next season (that is to say, this coming season) might not have a chance in hell of winning a Cup, but my God man - they are going to be so f***ing interesting to watch!! There are some great stories here!

 

[Jags]

I don't really consider things like taking back worse contracts (PLD to ditch Kuemper) or having $3.9M in dead cap space thanks to 50% retention (Kuznetsov) when the team is pressed above the salary cap as "getting out of" contracts very well.

Pfft. PLD is TBD, so we'll see how that works out. Kuznetsov was a tumor that needed to be excised. It was an impossible contract to move, and we're out from under it and the player, which are both good things. In a perfect world we'd have that 7.8 to spend, and he got us half of it. Half's better than nothing.

And there have been at least a handful of pretty immovable contracts that he managed to unload, sometimes getting real value back. Kuznetsov's cost us, but no one could have seen that coming, and it was a good contract at the beginning.

Sometimes shit doesn't work out. It's how you handle it that matters, and he's always managed to get it handled...

And that's not touching on the presumably $15M in LTIRment space the team is using.

Come on. Those two guys were considered untouchable, and both played until they couldn't anymore. How does LTIR hurt us? It hurts Ted, but who really gives a shit about that?

You're using an awful lot of hindsight to bag on a GM who's off to a pretty great start to the offseason. You think Roy would have taken less term to come here? You think he didn't want the year Mac talked him out of? The cap hit for him is solid. Why quibble about the details he'd have gotten anywhere else in free agency?

 

[Hivemind]

That's focusing a lot on the negatives. I'm sorry it wasn't perfect but this isn't a video game, anybody with sense knows they did a ton for the franchise this year while compromising very little.

Everybody makes mistakes - I'd rather have a GM who makes a couple than a walking clusterf*** like Dubas, who built a hopelessly lopsided roster in Toronto that they are still trying (and failing) to fix. And who is now single handedly making the Pens even worse (which is hilarious btw and I love it) than they were.

Other honourable mentions: Rob Blake (Kings) and Mike Grier (Sharks). The guy for the Isles who is 100 years old also comes to mind.

You're using an awful lot of hindsight to bag on a GM who's off to a pretty great start to the offseason. You think Roy would have taken less term to come here? You think he didn't want the year Mac talked him out of? The cap hit for him is solid. Why quibble about the details he'd have gotten anywhere else in free agency?

Let's start with these quips, since they carry a similar theme.

Read this thread back. I made a comment expressing concern with the length of this contract (back when we still thought it was 7 years) in a thread specifically created to discuss this contract. Another poster made a comment stating "It is crazy how some sports fans literally think any contract beyond 2 years is too long and risky." I responded to that comment with further elaboration regarding my position and the rationale behind it. It was y'all who started bringing in other aspects of this off-season and the GM's performance. I wasn't here to "bag on a GM." I made no comments here saying GMBM is a poor GM, and certainly nothing comparing him to the likes of Rob Blake (not sure why Mike Grier is catching strays, but that's a separate conversation).

I made an on-topic comment regarding the specifics of a contract. Just because GMBM has made more good moves than bad this off-season doesn't mean we can't discuss each in more detail, or point out aspects that aren't "perfect." We don't have to be video game GMs to discuss hockey. Come on.

@HTFN in particular, I know you actually agree. You've made very similar comments during the Laviolette years that it's possible to be critical of specific coaching moves while still liking a coach overall. Apply that same logic here.

Is there a franchise in the league that doesn't have some buyout money on the books?

Yes. Nine teams have $0 in "Dead Cap" (Salary Retention/Buyout Cap Impact), plus New Jersey has only $250K in dead cap thanks to Ilya Kovalchuk's cap recapture penalty after he decided to retire. Of those nine, the Lightning, Islanders, and Rangers do have running compliance buyouts that they are paying out, but those have $0 in cap impact.

I will add one more thing: it's important to consider your expectations around your fav team. With the Caps, how do you view them? As a contender (me = nope). As a competitive team who has a shot at the playoffs (me = yep). If they miss the playoffs does it really bother me (nope).
The team Bmac has assembled for next season (that is to say, this coming season) might not have a chance in hell of winning a Cup, but my God man - they are going to be so f***ing interesting to watch!! There are some great stories here!

I've discussed it in multiple other threads before, but I tend to hate the "middle course" - neither rebuilding nor contending. I don't want to get too far into it here, since we're wandering very far off-topic of this thread. For the most part, I'm pleased with this off-seasons moves, since most of them aren't going to harm the team when they're aiming to contend again. However, there's the one glaring exception to that, the giant exception to an otherwise potentially good off-season. The one albatross contract that can rear up and hurt this team in its next contention window.

Pfft. PLD is TBD, so we'll see how that works out. Kuznetsov was a tumor that needed to be excised. It was an impossible contract to move, and we're out from under it and the player, which are both good things. In a perfect world we'd have that 7.8 to spend, and he got us half of it. Half's better than nothing.

Since I don't want to drag this further off course, see the PLD thread.

Come on. Those two guys were considered untouchable, and both played until they couldn't anymore. How does LTIR hurt us? It hurts Ted, but who really gives a shit about that?

Right now Oshie's $5.75M is still applying towards the 10% overage allowance permitted during the off-season (he's essentially consuming 2/3 of it himself). I've also made my opinions on when they should have moved on from Oshie clear in other threads in the past.

 

[StrikingDistance]

Given the discourse here between the usual posters, looks like a solid pick-up! LOL

 

[PlushMinus]

Given the discourse here between the usual posters, looks like a solid pick-up! LOL

Hey now - behave yourself!