Value of: Martin Prospisil, Nicolas Deslauriers and Mathieu Olivier to Montréal

[dgibb10]

What are you using for penalty differential rate?

This is from Evolving Hockey, forwards min 500 minutes

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Spoiler: All Strengths

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Spoiler: Even Strength

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I release this is a minor point, but as a Devils fan I assumed Haula had him beat in penalty differential at least.

Turns out Stenlund, with a sweet 28 Penalties Taken and 8 Penalties Drawn, is the one true king of terrible Penalty Differentials.

Take into account the Majors.

A 5 minute major is a lot more significant than a 2 minute minor.

0.22x1.5 (the amount they are undervalued by)=0.33

0.33+0.82=1.15

A number that ranks, checks notes, dead last in the league.

Strome has an extra 0.05 in majors, so add 0.075 to him, he'll move up the board but still trail Pospisil, and if you want to look at the guys with more majors taken than Pospisil, only 2 guys take more than they draw, and both of them have an overall +ve differential meanning they won't be close.

 

[stevo61]

Oivier is tough and can play. I'm interested in him but certainly not going to give a first rounder for muscle.

A third rounder for Olivier?

Hey, that sounds like a guy Columbus could use

 

[dgibb10]

No they don’t lmfao

Shall I pull up some quotes?

 

[Bounces R Way]

Take into account the Majors.

A 5 minute major is a lot more significant than a 2 minute minor.

0.22x1.5 (the amount they are undervalued by)=0.33

0.33+0.82=1.15

A number that ranks, checks notes, dead last in the league.

Strome has an extra 0.05 in majors, so add 0.075 to him, he'll move up the board but still trail Pospisil, and if you want to look at the guys with more majors taken than Pospisil, only 2 guys take more than they draw, and both of them have an overall +ve differential meanning they won't be close.View attachment 913676

how many times did he start in the neutral zone though?

 

[dgibb10]

how many times did he start in the neutral zone though?

Still struggling with that basic concept?


Pospisil had 13.6% of his starts in the ozone, 7.5% in the dzone, 17.4% in the neutral zone, and 61.5% on the fly.

Or if you want to view it in a moronic way, he "started 64% of his shifts in the ozone"

 

[Curufinwe]

The Flyers are so welded to Deslauriers that they have traveled to Western Canada for a four game road trip with 14 forwards and only 6 healthy dmen.

In the two long years since Fletcher signed him to that awful contract, the Flyers have been outscored 46-27 at ES during Deslaurier's time on the ice.

 

[Double Dion]

While I think that user is overvaluing him here. I can say that Calgary would not move him for less than a 1st. Pospisil's playstyle is very desirable to a lot of teams and at a dirt cheap cap hit for both this year and next Calgary certainly won't be selling low on him. Especially if he can transition to full time center.

I'm not overvaluing him. People used to say the same thing about me and Backlund at the same age. Defensive savants like Backlund and Pospisil are worth a lot in terms of winning games. Especially for a team that's last number one C was Nieuwendyk in the early 90s. You have to be able to match up.

Pospisil is with Huberdeau and Mantha to hold them in defensively and drive the play. IF his health holds up you'll see I'm valuing him correctly. I wouldn't move him for less than a top 15 pick.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

I'm not overvaluing him. People used to say the same thing about me and Backlund at the same age. Defensive savants like Backlund and Pospisil are worth a lot in terms of winning games. Especially for a team that's last number one C was Nieuwendyk in the early 90s. You have to be able to match up.

Pospisil is with Huberdeau and Mantha to hold them in defensively and drive the play. IF his health holds up you'll see I'm valuing him correctly. I wouldn't move him for less than a top 15 pick.

You are overvaluing him though. He's not a defensive stalwart like you are making him out to be, he's not bad defensively but he pales in comparison to Backlund. Also Mantha is easily the best defensive forward on that line. His defensive game is literally the only thing he's consistent at every year.

I like Pospisil and I agree that he would not be available for less than a 1st. But he's also only played 1 professional game at center so far so lets pump the breaks on calling him the next Backlund.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Trading a player like Pospisil for late firsts is the kind of dumb hf move that leads to terrible perpetual rebuilds. The guy has turned into an amazing player. Late firsts rarely pan out and the Flames have 4 first rounders in the next two drafts already. They also have a bunch of solid prospects. Why would we trade the one player in the organization that looks like he’s going to be an impact C? That would be asinine.

 

[Double Dion]

You are overvaluing him though. He's not a defensive stalwart like you are making him out to be, he's not bad defensively but he pales in comparison to Backlund. Also Mantha is easily the best defensive forward on that line. His defensive game is literally the only thing he's consistent at every year.

I like Pospisil and I agree that he would not be available for less than a 1st. But he's also only played 1 professional game at center so far so lets pump the breaks on calling him the next Backlund.

Oof. This is your worst post since the days you thought Monahan was a good 2 way center. Pospisil is every bit as good defensively as Backlund until Backlund was 27. He's better defensively at the same age.

You honestly believe Mantha is a better defensive player than Pospisil? It's hard to believe anyone could honestly think that.

I wasn't referring to him as a C. I was referring to his body of work as a whole defensively. Take a look at Kadri without him versus with him. He's the best defensive wing on the team not named Coleman and it's really not close.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

Oof. This is your worst post since the days you thought Monahan was a good 2 way center. Pospisil is every bit as good defensively as Backlund until Backlund was 27. He's better defensively at the same age.

You honestly believe Mantha is a better defensive player than Pospisil? It's hard to believe anyone could honestly think that.

I wasn't referring to him as a C. I was referring to his body of work as a whole defensively. Take a look at Kadri without him versus with him. He's the best defensive wing on the team not named Coleman and it's really not close.

I would love to see a quote of me saying Monahan is a good 2-way center. Afaik I've never considered him that. I've viewed him as a low end 1C, whereas you and that other user told me he wouldn't be in the league within 2 years (that was 3 or 4 years ago).

Pospisil is a shit disturber with strong skating ability. He's like Bennett lite or similar to someone like Ridly Greig.

How the hell do you look at these and tell me Mantha is a defensive liability?

 

[Bounces R Way]

Still struggling with that basic concept?


Pospisil had 13.6% of his starts in the ozone, 7.5% in the dzone, 17.4% in the neutral zone, and 61.5% on the fly.

Or if you want to view it in a moronic way, he "started 64% of his shifts in the ozone"

Once again the whole hockey world has it wrong while hfuser dgibb10 bravely stands above their ignorance, patiently waiting for the masses to acknowledge his righteousness. Any person who is looking up zone start statistics knows what it means and that neutral zone and on the fly starts aren't worth consideration. Like at all. Literally of no statistical consequence. But everyone has to choose which battles they want to fight I guess.

Penalties are bad therefore player that takes penalties is bad is another sparkling insight btw. Really pulling the curtain back. Wonder what else is under the hood for us mere hockey laymen.

 

[Double Dion]

I would love to see a quote of me saying Monahan is a good 2-way center. Afaik I've never considered him that. I've viewed him as a low end 1C, whereas you and that other user told me he wouldn't be in the league within 2 years (that was 3 or 4 years ago).

Pospisil is a shit disturber with strong skating ability. He's like Bennett lite or similar to someone like Ridly Greig.

How the hell do you look at these and tell me Mantha is a defensive liability?View attachment 915117View attachment 915118

You full out did say he was a good defensive center. At least be honest. I said he had no trade value, not that he couldn't play in the league. I was wrong I'll admit. He didn't have no trade value, he had negative a 1st round pick trade value.

You love those deeply flawed charts. Take a look at actual results. Look at goals again per 60 and zone starts. Goals against and zone starts are relevant.

Pospisil has 1.9 GA/60 and Mantha is just over 3.0 GA/60 despite heavy O Zone starts. It's not close.

Pospisils head coach literally said we need him (Pospisil) to drive that line. Why would he say that if it's Mantha who drives it? So absurd to think Vegas healthy scratched a 20+ goal power forward who is an elite defensive player.

 

[Reinhart]

You'll have to forgive Dgibibibbi. His head is still not on straight after his favourite team spent a 1st+ on the worst goalie in the league. He was completely wrong about Markstrom last year, and he is wrong about Pospisil now. I love advanced metrics and how much more of the game that they show, but it is opinions like those that make them divisive. Markstrom was probably Calgary's MVP last year, and if it wasn't for him, the Flames would have picked in the top 5 and Tij perhaps would be a Flame today, funny enough.

Since the OP has included Desauliers and Roy in the same post, I am going to assume that he believes Pospisil is a fighter. That might have been the case in the AHL as he did take on all-comers and tried to make it to the NHL that way, but he got badly concussed a few times and almost had to quit hockey as his symptoms lingered on for a long time. That's why he actually wears a tinted visor (concussion issues, not hotdogging it). As an enforcer type, he would be useless.

I love Pospisil becuse he is a player that plays on that edge (and hopefully doesn't cross the line this year) that gets opponents off his game, but he is actually a really smart player out there. If you watch him play, see where he is going and what he is trying to accomplish, you will start seeing just how smart he is out there. His brain is elite, his speed is up there, his hands are just 'fine', however. I bet he ends up being a 40pt player, but one that makes a lot of room for his teammates, and is really difficult to play against. He is an unbelieavable agitator that everyone wants on their team (and apparently, that NJ was trying to add into the package last season at the deadline when trying to trade for Markstrom then, and was told that Pospisil is not available apparently). He is fun to watch, that's for sure. He is one of the fan favourites, and there must be a reason for that, right? The more you watch him, the more you wish you had that player on your team. Except for Dghidgid because of awkward rationales lol.

Pospsiil is a great example of a player you love to have on your team, and a player you hate playing against. A goon or enforcer he is not, and would be useless in that role.

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

You full out did say he was a good defensive center. At least be honest. I said he had no trade value, not that he couldn't play in the league. I was wrong I'll admit. He didn't have no trade value, he had negative a 1st round pick trade value.

You love those deeply flawed charts. Take a look at actual results. Look at goals again per 60 and zone starts. Goals against and zone starts are relevant.

Pospisil has 1.9 GA/60 and Mantha is just over 3.0 GA/60 despite heavy O Zone starts. It's not close.

Pospisils head coach literally said we need him (Pospisil) to drive that line. Why would he say that if it's Mantha who drives it? So absurd to think Vegas healthy scratched a 20+ goal power forward who is an elite defensive player.

Again I don't recall ever saying that he was a good defensive center, as I don't think I've ever viewed him as that. But if I did then I apologize, but I have a hard time believing that I said that.

Also Monahan literally just returned a 1st at last year's deadline. Your argument that he was negative value completely ignores context. Calgary paid a 1st to dump him because they signed Kadri to a 7M deal, putting them ~6M over the cap before Monahan was allowed to skate and prove his worth again. Once he was skating he clearly showed he had value, hence the 1st he returned last deadline. I love how Kadri has played but that signing was moronic from the get go. We could have kept Monahan and the 1st, then if and when he re-injured himself we could have been frontrunners for Horvat instead (since Kadri was probably going to sign in NYI had he not gone to Calgary).

GA/60 directly correlates to goaltending and Markstrom had one of the best GSAx in the league last year. Also where are you getting your numbers from? Yes Pospisil's GA/60 was 1.9, but Mantha's was 2.34. And his offensive zone starts were significantly lower than Pospisil's at 49.13%, vs 64.22% for MP. Mantha was better in CA/60, SA/60, xGA/60, SCA/60, and HDCA/60. This info is all very easily accessible on Natural Stattrick. In Def WAR Mantha was +4.9 between both teams (+2.9 in WSH and +2 in VGK), whereas Pospisil was -1. If we want to go a step even further

I post those "deeply flawed charts" because it sums up all the information above into a simple graph that most people can understand.

Who said anything about driving a line? Pospisil is a menace on the ice, he is very fast, a grinder, and a shit disturber. I fully expect him to "drive that line." Mantha is well known for his offensive consistency issues. Whether it's lack of engagement or something else, we all expect it. But that doesn't make him a defensive liability by any means.

 

[dgibb10]

You'll have to forgive Dgibibibbi. His head is still not on straight after his favourite team spent a 1st+ on the worst goalie in the league. He was completely wrong about Markstrom last year, and he is wrong about Pospisil now. I love advanced metrics and how much more of the game that they show, but it is opinions like those that make them divisive. Markstrom was probably Calgary's MVP last year, and if it wasn't for him, the Flames would have picked in the top 5 and Tij perhaps would be a Flame today, funny enough.

Since the OP has included Desauliers and Roy in the same post, I am going to assume that he believes Pospisil is a fighter. That might have been the case in the AHL as he did take on all-comers and tried to make it to the NHL that way, but he got badly concussed a few times and almost had to quit hockey as his symptoms lingered on for a long time. That's why he actually wears a tinted visor (concussion issues, not hotdogging it). As an enforcer type, he would be useless.

I love Pospisil becuse he is a player that plays on that edge (and hopefully doesn't cross the line this year) that gets opponents off his game, but he is actually a really smart player out there. If you watch him play, see where he is going and what he is trying to accomplish, you will start seeing just how smart he is out there. His brain is elite, his speed is up there, his hands are just 'fine', however. I bet he ends up being a 40pt player, but one that makes a lot of room for his teammates, and is really difficult to play against. He is an unbelieavable agitator that everyone wants on their team (and apparently, that NJ was trying to add into the package last season at the deadline when trying to trade for Markstrom then, and was told that Pospisil is not available apparently). He is fun to watch, that's for sure. He is one of the fan favourites, and there must be a reason for that, right? The more you watch him, the more you wish you had that player on your team. Except for Dghidgid because of awkward rationales lol.

Pospsiil is a great example of a player you love to have on your team, and a player you hate playing against. A goon or enforcer he is not, and would be useless in that role.

Me: I would pay a 2025 1st for retained markstrom
NJD: pays a 2025 1st for retained markstrom

Weird how you didn't end up with Dawson Mercer and 10th overall like so many Calgary fans claimed would be necessary

 

[Rubi]

Me: I would pay a 2025 1st for retained markstrom
NJD: pays a 2025 1st for retained markstrom

Weird how you didn't end up with Dawson Mercer and 10th overall like so many Calgary fans claimed would be necessary

At that time NJ still had a decent shot at making the playoffs and Markstrom would have been a huge help towards attaining that goal. Instead NJ wasted the opportunity and the Markstrom trade was then made with 2024-25 season in mind, not last season.
So basically it was.. if you want to be still playing hockey at the end of April 2024, the cost will be Mercer. If you don't care and are willing to disappoint your fans.. the price isn't as high. The Devil's took the latter deal.

 

[dgibb10]

At that time NJ still had a decent shot at making the playoffs and Markstrom would have been a huge help towards attaining that goal. Instead NJ wasted the opportunity and the Markstrom trade was then made with 2024-25 season in mind, not last season.
So basically it was.. if you want to be still playing hockey at the end of April 2024, the cost will be Mercer. If you don't care and are willing to disappoint your fans.. the price isn't as high. The Devil's took the latter deal.

A devils team with an injured Jack Hughes had 0 chance of winning a cup no matter who was in net.

And btw, when the devils were actually in it earlier in the season, I was willing to pay the 2024 1st for an unretained markstrom. Then his value dropped, and so did what I was willing to pay.

The calgary fans price however didn't seem to change at all, if anything it went up.

And so when one side was saying 10th overall or mercer for things like an unretained markstrom, and I'm saying 2025 1st for Markstrom at 4 mill, I wonder who's closer. You're welcome to enjoy Kevin Bahl tho, I've been wanting him replaced since last november, when I was proposing him as a secondary piece in a hanifin deal.

But unfortunately calgary fans were convinced that 1st+bahl+3rd would not be NEARLY enough for hanifin. And they got, checks notes, 1st+Miromanev+3rd

 

[Rubi]

A devils team with an injured Jack Hughes had 0 chance of winning a cup no matter who was in net.

I think most Devils fans would have been happy to be playing playoff hockey. I doubt many were expecting to win it all.. even with Hughes.

 

[dgibb10]

I think most Devils fans would have been happy to be playing playoff hockey. I doubt many were expecting to win it all.. even with Hughes.

The goal is to win a cup.

Sacrificing longer term assets to go in on a season with your best player and best defenseman hurt would be stupid, just so you can maybe watch a 1st round series.

 

[Rubi]

The goal is to win a cup.

Sacrificing longer term assets to go in on a season with your best player and best defenseman hurt would be stupid, just so you can maybe watch a 1st round series.

If you are in the playoffs anything can happen... and often has.

 

[dgibb10]

If you are in the playoffs anything can happen... and often has.

Teams don't win missing their best player and best dman.

Let alone the fact that playoffs wouldn't have even been a guarantee with Markstrom, especially with his struggles after February

 

[Yepthatsme]

Oof. This is your worst post since the days you thought Monahan was a good 2 way center. Pospisil is every bit as good defensively as Backlund until Backlund was 27. He's better defensively at the same age.

You honestly believe Mantha is a better defensive player than Pospisil? It's hard to believe anyone could honestly think that.

I wasn't referring to him as a C. I was referring to his body of work as a whole defensively. Take a look at Kadri without him versus with him. He's the best defensive wing on the team not named Coleman and it's really not close.

Don’t throw stones in glass houses. Just off the top of my head I can remember you saying Dryden Hunt was a better player than Kuzmenko back in February, Sam Honzek is a second round talent at best, and that Brzustewicz upside is Tanev and those are just the Flames ones that were memorable. Calling out others takes especially going back that far isn’t great.

 

[Double Dion]

Don’t throw stones in glass houses. Just off the top of my head I can remember you saying Dryden Hunt was a better player than Kuzmenko back in February, Sam Honzek is a second round talent at best, and that Brzustewicz upside is Tanev and those are just the Flames ones that were memorable. Calling out others takes especially going back that far isn’t great.

I said most of those things yes. I still think 2 of them. To clarify, I said Dryden Hunt had a more positive impact on winning than Kuzmenko at 5 on 5. I still believe that.

I said Brzustewicz is going to be more like Tanev than the offensive wizard and defensive liability people think he'll be. I also said he wouldn't be quite as good defensively and he'd score 40 points. I still think that.

The one thing I might be wrong about is Honzek. I did have him as a second round talent and I would have taken Heidt (the last pick in the 2nd round) ahead of him. I also said I think his ceiling was a 3rd line winger. Everything I said was valid at the time and may still be. The thing I underrated was him spending time with Pospisil and training all summer with him. I'm still not sold on him being more than a 3rd line winger, but I acknowledge there is a more than negligible chance he could be now.

 

[SirSamofHouseBennett]

anyone arguing that Pospisil isnt engrained into the plans of the Calgary Flames simply isnt paying attention and no amount of carving data will change that fact.

He is what he is as a player and the Flames have decided to put him at C between their 2 best wingers.

Guess what, its working, why would they change anything? That line has started on fire so lets be real, he isnt available.

I promise you Craig Conroy doesnt even look at any of these charts if someone comes knocking for this player.

Its not that he is untouchable but there is really nothing any other team would offer that CC would accept.

Not available.