Value of: Marner's Contract

[Kaners PPGs]

I've thought about this with Chicago. Running shotgun to Bedard for the rest of his prime sounds quite appealing. 7 * 12 is about as high as I'd go.

 

[Djp]

Was brad Richards contract the worst modern UFA contract?

Marner…” hold my beer”

 

[Strangle]

Id give him 12mil on a long term deal to come to the Pens. We have the space and he would be interesting beside Sid or Geno.

I was really pushing for a guentzel /Marner deal to be worked out before NMC kicked in

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

I've thought about this with Chicago. Running shotgun to Bedard for the rest of his prime sounds quite appealing. 7 * 12 is about as high as I'd go.

Chicago paying Marner and Jones $21M would be hilarious.

 

[666]

Marner is CLEARLY better than Nylander as he is exceptional with everyone. Nylander is only good when he plays with Matthews.
Last 3 seasons 5v5 anything less is going to have sample size issues:

Player 1	Player 2	Player 3	Player 4	GP	TOI	GF	GA	+/-	GF/60	GA/60	GF%
Auston Matthews	Mitchell Marner			205​	1807.7​	120​	74​	46​	3.98​	2.46​	61.86​
	Mitchell Marner		John Tavares	215​	889.3​	45​	29​	16​	3.04​	1.96​	60.81​
Auston Matthews		William Nylander		227​	829.5​	50​	33​	17​	3.62​	2.39​	60.24​
		William Nylander	John Tavares	237​	1558.8​	72​	83​	-11​	2.77​	3.19​	46.45​

 

[Antropovsky]

How many years is that for. As it doesn’t jive with moneypuck numbers. The minutes are much higher in yours.

Do you have a link.

Just last season. I took my numbers from natural stat trick.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Marner is CLEARLY better than Nylander as he is exceptional with everyone. Nylander is only good when he plays with Matthews.
Last 3 seasons 5v5 anything less is going to have sample size issues:

Player 1	Player 2	Player 3	Player 4	GP	TOI	GF	GA	+/-	GF/60	GA/60	GF%
Auston Matthews	Mitchell Marner			205​	1807.7​	120​	74​	46​	3.98​	2.46​	61.86​
	Mitchell Marner		John Tavares	215​	889.3​	45​	29​	16​	3.04​	1.96​	60.81​
Auston Matthews		William Nylander		227​	829.5​	50​	33​	17​	3.62​	2.39​	60.24​
		William Nylander	John Tavares	237​	1558.8​	72​	83​	-11​	2.77​	3.19​	46.45​

When you overpay the lesser player, you gotta overpay the better player.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Marner is CLEARLY better than Nylander as he is exceptional with everyone. Nylander is only good when he plays with Matthews.
Last 3 seasons 5v5 anything less is going to have sample size issues:

Player 1	Player 2	Player 3	Player 4	GP	TOI	GF	GA	+/-	GF/60	GA/60	GF%
Auston Matthews	Mitchell Marner			205​	1807.7​	120​	74​	46​	3.98​	2.46​	61.86​
	Mitchell Marner		John Tavares	215​	889.3​	45​	29​	16​	3.04​	1.96​	60.81​
Auston Matthews		William Nylander		227​	829.5​	50​	33​	17​	3.62​	2.39​	60.24​
		William Nylander	John Tavares	237​	1558.8​	72​	83​	-11​	2.77​	3.19​	46.45​

The Marner/Matthews line in your list, has over double the minutes together, its over a 1000 more minutes. That’s about a full year of 5 on 5.

 

[666]

The Marner/Matthews line in your list, has over double the minutes together, its over a 1000 more minutes. That’s about a full year of 5 on 5.

Yes, that's why you want to look at /60 stats and GF% and want at least 800 mins TOI. Posting 200 min TOI is something like 15 games and useless.

 

[samsagat]

Mmmm, this is a very murky situation for the Leafs.

They really can't afford to loose Marner for nothing but they surely won't trade him at the deadline, if the Leafs are in the playoffs (and they'll be).

I'm not sure Marner wants to stay in Toronto long term.

He's a local boy and has been a whipping boy too for their repeated playoffs lack of success.

He seemed to just push further what seem to be a inevitable divorce last summer.

Which might be good for himself, but not so for the team, he has put them in a precarious situation..

 

[TS Quint]

If he wants more than Nylander got, they should walk away.

He deserves more than Nylander and it’s not even close.

It helps that Marner plays majority of his ES time with Matthews.

Marner Without Matthews 5v5:
286 mins: 1.86 points per 60
League ranking: 122nd
Marner With Matthews 5v5:
720 mins: 3.00 points per 60
League ranking: 5th
Difference: 1.14 points per 60

Domi without Matthews 5v5:
762 mins: 2.45 points per 60
League ranking: 23rd
Domi with Matthews 5v5:
206 mins: 3.77 points per 60
League ranking: 1st
Difference. 1.32 points per 60

Someone let me know if I calculated anything wrong.

Your saying Domi is better than Marner?

 

[Antropovsky]

Yes, that's why you want to look at /60 stats and GF% and want at least 800 mins TOI. Posting 200 min TOI is something like 15 games and useless.

Problem is there is very limited data of Marner without Matthews. From my research, since his rookie season Matthews produces about the same goals/per 60 with any linemate, be it Marleau, Johnsson, Marner. Matthews produced 2x points/60 with Domi in over 200 mins compared to Marner last season. Shouldnt we see a significant boost with Marner? Instead of a dip? Matthews also boosts his teammates stats by quite a bit.. so why are we paying 6' 180lb, small winger Marner, a top 5 forward salary? Its scary to think what 11 million Marners stats would be without arguably the leagues 2nd best center (voted 1st and 3rd for Ted Lindsay, Selke nominee, Hard winner, multle richars winner).

 

[Folignos Helmet]

if leafs offered him the Nylander deal he would need to get 13.15 for 7 to match. I don’t think any team would give him that.

Leafs gottta play hardball on this one and be comfortable with thought of him leaving. I would be.

 

[666]

Problem is there is very limited data of Marner without Matthews.

I showed you over 800 minutes of Marner without Matthews data. Pay attention.
Marner's line performs just as well with Tavares as it does with Matthews which is significantly better than Nylander with Tavares.
Also 200 minutes of 5v5 data is too small of a sample size.

Player 1	Player 2	Player 3	Player 4	GP	TOI	GF	GA	+/-	GF/60	GA/60	GF%
w/o Auston Matthews	w/o Mitchell Marner	William Nylander	John Tavares	237​	1558.8​	72​	83​	-11​	2.77​	3.19​	46.45​
w/o Auston Matthews	Mitchell Marner	w/o William Nylander	John Tavares	215​	889.3​	45​	29​	16​	3.04​	1.96​	60.81​

 

[Golden_Jet]

He deserves more than Nylander and it’s not even close.

Sure if you want to keep overpaying for both.

 

[TS Quint]

Sure if you want to keep overpaying for both.

Thats the ShannaPlan

 

[Antropovsky]

He deserves more than Nylander and it’s not even close.


Your saying Domi is better than Marner?

No secret on the Leaf board that im not high on Marner. Slow, weak shot, soft, small and terrified of the dangerous areas of the ice. Hes a black hole in the playoffs. Struggles under pressure. Way to many holes in his game to pay him similar to leagues best.

He once went over 100 consecutive games without a pp goal... on a pp with Matthews, Tavares and Nylander. He slumps all the time. Always complaining about the media and fans and social media. The big news this camp was he finally put in the work this offseason.

I dont think you can win paying him 13% of the cap.

 

[VeteranPresence]

I've thought about this with Chicago. Running shotgun to Bedard for the rest of his prime sounds quite appealing. 7 * 12 is about as high as I'd go.

Not a combo I'd thought about before but really makes a ton of sense. Less of a spotlight, no pressure to make or perform in the playoffs right away + a spot on the wing next to a future superstar. If he's tired of the Toronto media circus after so many years Chicago could be a good fit, and maybe the experience of being a leader to a group of younger guys brings out that next level in him:

Bertuzzi-Bedard-Marner
Reichel-TT-Nazar

Vlasic-Jones
Korchinski-Murphy

 

[spaghtti]

5X3

1M guaranteed money, the rest all bonuses based on playoff performance. So I guess 1M.

Just here to point out.

Performance bonuses are for players on entry-level deals, players older than age 35 on one-year deals, or players who have played 400 or more games in their career and spent 100 or more days on long-term injured reserve the previous year.

 

[Nogatco Rd]

13.5-14.0

 

[Pengu]

Most overhyped weak player I've ever seen. PATHETIC in the playoffs when it matters the most. He won't win anything in his entire career as he will be overpaid his entire career,
Game 5-7 for his ENTIRE career: 1G 8A
Weak minded loser who can't handle ANY pressure.

 

[Leafs87]

After all the overpayments including imo Nylander last year, you walk a fine line between trying to draw the line in the sand and potentially risk losing him for nothing. If lost I’m curious how other teams view him with the rising cap and all.

 

[Unbiased Fan]

Personally I’d love to see him walk. Sign a someone to a big 1 year contract then give McDavid a max contract offer.

Side not for the deferred earnings is there a cap? Could the leafs give him 4 or 5 billion spread out until 2080

 

[Nogatco Rd]

Most overhyped weak player I've ever seen. PATHETIC in the playoffs when it matters the most. He won't win anything in his entire career as he will be overpaid his entire career,
Game 5-7 for his ENTIRE career: 1G 8A
Weak minded loser who can't handle ANY pressure.

I think Berube will get the best out of him but we’ll see.

 

[centipede2233]

Marner tomchicago really makes sense.