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Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread - 2023-23 Season Edition

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Is Grebyonkin in the 1st tier of prospects with Knies, Niemela, and Robby? It's hard to not see the argument at this point, but let's see him finish out the season. Our pool is looking insanely good for a team with one first round pick since 2019 (and we don't even count him). Heres my current U24, under 50GP rankings:

1. Knies (➖️)
2. Niemela (➖️)
3. Robertson (📉)
----
4. Grebyonkin (📈📈)
5. Tverberg (➖️)
6. Minten (➖️)
7. SDA (📈)
8. Abruzzese (➖️)
9. Voit (📈)
10. Hirvonen (➖️)
----
11. Moldenhauer (📈)
12. Hildeby (📈)
13. Lisowsky (➖️)
14. Kokkonen (➖️)
15. Villenueve (📈)
16. Steeves (➖️)
17. Kral (➖️)
18. Miettinen (📈)
19. Miller (📈)
20. Kressler (📈)
21. Ahktyamov (📈)
22. Koster (➖️)
----
23. Abramov (📉)
24. Kizimov (📈)
25. Ovchinnikov (➖️)
26. Peksa (➖️)
27. Petruzzelli (📉)
28. Ellis (➖️)

Non-prospects:
Gogolev
Fusco
O'Connell
Schingoethe

22 legit NHL prospects in my eyes, and 6 more guys I think are interesting enough that they still have a chance of being something, although it's a long shot at best. Also shout out to Kara from going from my "non-prospect" tier for like 3 years to being interesting enough to have a possible chance at coming over next season.
 
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Morgs said:
Is Grebyonkin in the 1st tier of prospects with Knies, Niemela, and Robby? It's hard to not see the argument at this point, but let's see him finish out the season. Our pool is looking insanely good for a team with one first round pick since 2019 (and we don't even count him). Heres my current U24, under 50GP rankings:
Click to expand...
Yes, Grebyonkin is that good. He's a bit lucky to be getting an opportunity that most young players don't get in the KHL, but he's absolutely making the most of it. Being 19 years old and having this level of success in the KHL doesn't just put him in that tier, but arguably the best player in it if he can keep it up. He's got good size and some very impressive IQ and playmaking ability
 
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TheDoldrums said:
Gun to my head right now, Knies is the only prospect I value ahead of Grebyonkin.
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Over Niemela? We know he got neutered in terms of getting good PP time.

Grebyonkin seems like a very nice find though. I guess if he can get another 1-2 seasons in the KHL with proper minutes, we may have a guy ready to just step into the NHL.
 
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CantLoseWithMatthews said:
Yes, Grebyonkin is that good. He's a bit lucky to be getting an opportunity that most young players don't get in the KHL, but he's absolutely making the most of it. Being 19 years old and having this level of success in the KHL doesn't just put him in that tier, but arguably the best player in it if he can keep it up. He's got good size and some very impressive IQ and playmaking ability
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I think so too, but these numbers put him on par with 19 year olds in the last 10 years like Buchnevich, Chinakhov, Marchenko, and Kravtsov, not Kaprizov (or Kuznetsov/Yakupov if you want to go back further). He's pacing like a legit middle-6 or better NHL player, which is insane to see out of an OA 5th round pick months after the draft. The issue is there are a couple nobodies that have done similar in Polunin and Golyshev.

I have similar upsides on Knies, Robby, and Niemela at the moment (impact NHLer) , but id argue their floors are *much* higher besides Robby's injury risk due to how much lower the variance is and honestly Ive been tempted to drop him a tier. It's insane how there is a legit case though, and I don't see how anyone can rank him below 4 or maybe 5 if youre really in love with Minten at this point.
 
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Watching Miller in this game (tsn2) i'm impressed with his quickness and his reads in general.
His defensive zone play along with that of the rest of his team doesn't look great tonight but Quinnipiac is a very good veteran team that control the puck well.
 
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Morgs said:
I think so too, but these numbers put him on par with 19 year olds in the last 10 years like Buchnevich, Chinakhov, Marchenko, and Kravtsov, not Kaprizov (or Kuznetsov/Yakupov if you want to go back further). He's pacing like a legit middle-6 or better NHL player, which is insane to see out of an OA 5th round pick months after the draft. The issue is there are a couple nobodies that have done similar in Polunin and Golyshev.

I have similar upsides on Knies, Robby, and Niemela at the moment (impact NHLer) , but id argue their floors are *much* higher besides Robby's injury risk due to how much lower the variance is and honestly Ive been tempted to drop him a tier. It's insane how there is a legit case though, and I don't see how anyone can rank him below 4 or maybe 5 if youre really in love with Minten at this point.
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Here's what I see, and this is one heck of a helium prospect.

He's on a heater that now that he had time to adjust to new team/teammates, and he's been on a near PPG pace over a significant stretch now. As someone pointed out, their primary goalie has a GAA under 2.00, and Greb is almost a PPG over the last dozen or so....that shows how much he is driving the scoring for Amur if they are losing more than winning with sub 2.00 goaltending.

Being on a near PPG pace over a decent period of time in the second best league in the world on a ridiculously low scoring team......is just incredible in my books.
 
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Morgs said:
Is Grebyonkin in the 1st tier of prospects with Knies, Niemela, and Robby? It's hard to not see the argument at this point, but let's see him finish out the season. Our pool is looking insanely good for a team with one first round pick since 2019 (and we don't even count him). Heres my current U24, under 50GP rankings:

1. Knies (➖️)
2. Niemela (➖️)
3. Robertson (📉)
----
4. Grebyonkin (📈📈)
5. Tverberg (➖️)
6. Minten (➖️)
7. SDA (📈)
8. Abruzzese (➖️)
9. Voit (📈)
10. Hirvonen (➖️)
----
11. Moldenhauer (📈)
12. Hildeby (📈)
13. Lisowsky (➖️)
14. Kokkonen (➖️)
15. Villenueve (📈)
16. Steeves (➖️)
17. Kral (➖️)
18. Miettinen (📈)
19. Miller (📈)
20. Kressler (📈)
21. Ahktyamov (📈)
22. Koster (➖️)
----
23. Abramov (📉)
24. Kizimov (📈)
25. Ovchinnikov (➖️)
26. Peksa (➖️)
27. Petruzzelli (📉)
28. Ellis (➖️)

Non-prospects:
Gogolev
Fusco
O'Connell
Schingoethe

22 legit NHL prospects in my eyes, and 6 more guys I think are interesting enough that they still have a chance of being something, although it's a long shot at best. Also shout out to Kara from going from my "non-prospect" tier for like 3 years to being interesting enough to have a possible chance at coming over next season.
Click to expand...
I come here to find out the stuff I'm too lazy to pursue. While this list is debatable in how it's arranged, the thing that I like about it is the total number of prospects you see as having 'potential' and the supporting evidence that you and others here have presented to help support your views. Thank you.

I've said before that one of this team's biggest weaknesses has been the lack of competent drafting and development. Had we managed to grab a few players over the years who today were competent 3rd/4th liners and a 3rd/4th D to compliment the 'stars', our team would have been in such a better place today because of it.

Along with the Covid cap freeze, our inability to draft and develop our own players from earlier drafts (2012-2018) is, imo, the biggest reason why we have struggled to succeed in the playoffs. More useful players, more draft picks, etc.

Of course, none of the above are guaranteed to achieve anything, but I look at your list and the descriptions that you and others have provided, and I'm excited by the prospect of seeing a few of them in a Leaf jersey. If nothing else, the Dubas years look to be the most successful drafting years we've seen in ages.

Thanks again, to you and all.
 
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meefer said:
I come here to find out the stuff I'm too lazy to pursue. While this list is debatable in how it's arranged, the thing that I like about it is the total number of prospects you see as having 'potential' and the supporting evidence that you and others here have presented to help support your views. Thank you.

I've said before that one of this team's biggest weaknesses has been the lack of competent drafting and development. Had we managed to grab a few players over the years who today were competent 3rd/4th liners and a 3rd/4th D to compliment the 'stars', our team would have been in such a better place today because of it.

Along with the Covid cap freeze, our inability to draft and develop our own players from earlier drafts (2012-2018) is, imo, the biggest reason why we have struggled to succeed in the playoffs. More useful players, more draft picks, etc.

Of course, none of the above are guaranteed to achieve anything, but I look at your list and the descriptions that you and others have provided, and I'm excited by the prospect of seeing a few of them in a Leaf jersey. If nothing else, the Dubas years look to be the most successful drafting years we've seen in ages.

Thanks again, to you and all.
Click to expand...
We have some dedicated guys on here, and it's why this is my favourite thread. Kudos to those who put in the effort knowing that it's only for their own understanding and enjoyment, and they share their efforts with us.

Kudos for sure!
 
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meefer said:
I come here to find out the stuff I'm too lazy to pursue. While this list is debatable in how it's arranged, the thing that I like about it is the total number of prospects you see as having 'potential' and the supporting evidence that you and others here have presented to help support your views. Thank you.

I've said before that one of this team's biggest weaknesses has been the lack of competent drafting and development. Had we managed to grab a few players over the years who today were competent 3rd/4th liners and a 3rd/4th D to compliment the 'stars', our team would have been in such a better place today because of it.

Along with the Covid cap freeze, our inability to draft and develop our own players from earlier drafts (2012-2018) is, imo, the biggest reason why we have struggled to succeed in the playoffs. More useful players, more draft picks, etc.

Of course, none of the above are guaranteed to achieve anything, but I look at your list and the descriptions that you and others have provided, and I'm excited by the prospect of seeing a few of them in a Leaf jersey. If nothing else, the Dubas years look to be the most successful drafting years we've seen in ages.

Thanks again, to you and all.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't put 2018 into this but I agree with the point.
Sandin, Holmberg are NHLers, with guys like SDA, Kral and Hollowell close. Durzi also a decent player for LA
 
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Morgs said:
I think so too, but these numbers put him on par with 19 year olds in the last 10 years like Buchnevich, Chinakhov, Marchenko, and Kravtsov, not Kaprizov (or Kuznetsov/Yakupov if you want to go back further). He's pacing like a legit middle-6 or better NHL player, which is insane to see out of an OA 5th round pick months after the draft. The issue is there are a couple nobodies that have done similar in Polunin and Golyshev.

I have similar upsides on Knies, Robby, and Niemela at the moment (impact NHLer) , but id argue their floors are *much* higher besides Robby's injury risk due to how much lower the variance is and honestly Ive been tempted to drop him a tier. It's insane how there is a legit case though, and I don't see how anyone can rank him below 4 or maybe 5 if youre really in love with Minten at this point.
Click to expand...
It's definitely fair to say that Greb looks more like a Buchnevich level player if he hits his upside than a Kaprizov, but that's still an outstanding outcome as a point per game play driving winger. Knies and Minten clearly have good production to go along with a very safe floor, but I'm just more impressed by a teenager who can be an offensive threat against the 2nd best league in the world and who just keeps improving.

Niemela/Robertson/Knies/Minten do all look like safer bets to make the NHL, but I think if you're looking to rank the top group of your prospect pool I'd weigh upside higher than NHL likelihood. I would still say Robertson has the highest upside, but I'm starting to doubt him as a prospect with all the injuries. After him, I'd probably say Grebyonkin. His hockey sense and ability to get the most out of his skillset are very impressive
 
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Greb's rise is pretty wild .. not sure where I rank him yet but the longer this goes on it's hard to not rank him near the top of the prospect pool. I suppose his lack of pedigree adds some concern that this is just a blip.

@Prominence did a great write up last summer based on his game, so I wonder what has changed to see him consistently become an offensive threat. Seemed like he's always had the tools to produce but I wonder it's been growth in his effort level or skating that's been the biggest boost. Wasn't noted as a physical player so I don't think that would change.

It would be interesting to see how his defensive game is too.
 
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Recipe Unlimited said:
How does the KHL playoffs work? Any chance Amur makes the playoffs? Looks like they are 5/6 in their division.
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It's 1v8 format, and they are in a trash conference so they may have a chance... Especially if they get Novosibirsk or Yekaterinburg (who are oddly in 2nd and 3rd over the usually far superior Magnitogorsk and Omsk).

Traditionally, in the East, only Kazan, Magnitogorsk, Omsk, and occasionally Ufa are the good teams. The rest usually suck. Chelyabinsk has had the odd good year once in a while, but those 4 teams make the semis most of the time.

This year, 5 teams in the West have more points than Kazan, who is T-1 with Novosibirsk (Ovchinnikov's team).

EDIT: They are currently 8th in their conference with Kizimov's team 2 points behind them for the last spot and Chebykin's Vladivostok 3 points ahead with a game in hand.
 
Last edited:
BertCorbeau said:
Greb's rise is pretty wild .. not sure where I rank him yet but the longer this goes on it's hard to not rank him near the top of the prospect pool. I suppose his lack of pedigree adds some concern that this is just a blip.

@Prominence did a great write up last summer based on his game, so I wonder what has changed to see him consistently become an offensive threat. Seemed like he's always had the tools to produce but I wonder it's been growth in his effort level or skating that's been the biggest boost. Wasn't noted as a physical player so I don't think that would change.

It would be interesting to see how his defensive game is too.
Click to expand...
Short answer is motivation, effort from playing in the khl. What probably happened is he realizes he’s in the khl and he’s now getting paid so he is trying harder.

From the one amur game i saw this year, the major difference is his compete. He threw more hits in that one game i saw than the five mhl games i saw. My pessimism on his non-offensive skills may have not accounted for his passiveness in the mhl. What i forgot to account for was that yurov also played on the same team. This is important as metrics, especially production, may be affected. Production usually goes down. Grebyonkin’s pick224 data was outstanding despite yurov being on the same team. I don’t think they played on the same line either. Playing in the khl has most likely motivated him to just play harder. He’s definitely a better player in the khl.

I believe that we should be critical of players and this thread is rational to accept this criticism. His skill was always there. When he has the puck, he will make the right play most of the time and he’s still figuring out which plays not to make (grebyonkin will learn this). I don’t think he’s going to be a play driver like carl hagelin, artem panarin, or nick suzuki. Grebyonkin’s a skill guy. Same mold or impact as sda but with a little more hitting. Defensively, he’s strictly positional. I didn’t see much detail here. He definitely does not have the same level as detail as minten, but this stuff can be learned. I will need to watch more games to gauge his off-puck game and physicality.
 
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Prominence said:
Short answer is motivation, effort from playing in the khl. What probably happened is he realizes he’s in the khl and he’s now getting paid so he is trying harder.

From the one amur game i saw this year, the major difference is his compete. He threw more hits in that one game i saw than the five mhl games i saw. My pessimism on his non-offensive skills may have not accounted for his passiveness in the mhl. What i forgot to account for was that yurov also played on the same team. This is important as metrics, especially production, may be affected. Production usually goes down. Grebyonkin’s pick224 data was outstanding despite yurov being on the same team. I don’t think they played on the same line either. Playing in the khl has most likely motivated him to just play harder. He’s definitely a better player in the khl.

I believe that we should be critical of players and this thread is rational to accept this criticism. His skill was always there. When he has the puck, he will make the right play most of the time and he’s still figuring out which plays not to make (grebyonkin will learn this). I don’t think he’s going to be a play driver like carl hagelin, artem panarin, or nick suzuki. Grebyonkin’s a skill guy. Same mold or impact as sda but with a little more hitting. Defensively, he’s strictly positional. I didn’t see much detail here. He definitely does not have the same level as detail as minten, but this stuff can be learned. I will need to watch more games to gauge his off-puck game and physicality.
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Nice insights, thanks for the update.
 
Mitch nylander said:
Gotta wonder if they try to bring over Kara or Grebenkin after their years.
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Grebyonkin almost certainly not. NHL teams are not allowed to break KHL deals (i.e. buy them out, which you can do with the other European leagues; on top of the transfer fee of course) so unless Grebyonkin agrees to terminate it himself (like Ovchinnikov did last year), then he won't come over.

Considering he is getting KHL time, not much of an incentive for him to do that, and he is a long ways away from a shot in the NHL.

Kara has had one solid year, but unspectacular year, after many underwhelming ones. His deal expires after this year and he wants to play in the NHL so I do not think we have to worry about him signing long term in the KHL, but I think the Leafs would rather see him take another step in the KHL and then bring him in when he would have a better shot of cracking the NHL right away. He probably wouldn't scoff at the AHL if he thinks it will help his NHL chances, but he will likely take better KHL offers first.

Ovchinnikov is the only guy who may come over (or rather back) from the KHL, and he hasn't really impressed in Russia at all, and he is struggling to secure more than a 4th line role on a middle-of-the-pack offensive team which desperately needs depth scoring despite being a pure offensive winger. He will likely be in the AHL rotation by virtue of being Russian, but he may have as much trouble making an impact in the AHL as Gogolev did since getting his ELC.
 
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