Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread - 2023-23 Season Edition

[kerk]

i think minten turning into a david kampf at ES/PK who can also be a PP2 trigger man would be a win

 

[4thline]

The ES production is concerning but if you look at his skills in isolation, having the IQ and physical skillset to produce with high skill players is more projectable for us than it would be for Arizona. Having the defensive IQ to pick up our systems quickly on the Marlies and contribute right away on the PK down there is an isolation job that moves up his development schedule for our specific situation.

I get what you mean though, it's hard to quantify the value of lottery ticket prospects vs guys who are likely to fill a useful job for us within a year or two on an ELC.

I think that's the thing I've been struggling to articulate, the only case for Voit/Lisowsky being "lottery ticket prospects" is their draft position.

In an alternate world where we take Lisowsky at 79 is he viewed that way( as a lottery ticket)? Or as a third round steal that's going stride for stride with Firkus in their D+1?

If not for Covid making a Voit a 5th rounder that didn't have a draft year or U18/Hlinka, is he regarded as having the pedigree to legitimize his post draft production?

 

[Martin Skoula]

I think that's the thing I've been struggling to articulate, the only case for Voit/Lisowsky being "lottery ticket prospects" is their draft position.

In an alternate world where we take Lisowsky at 79 is he viewed that way? Or as a third round steal that's going stride for stride with Firkus in their D+1?

If not for Covid making a Voit a 5th rounder that didn't have a draft year or U18/Hlinka, is he regarded as having the pedigree to legitimize his post draft production?

It's not their draft position imo but more the jobs they're competing for. Minten, Knies, and the Marlies are likely to be at least effective 3rd liners for us, anything more is gravy. Voit needs to make it as a top-6er with a small chance he could work out as a reformed bottom-6 specialist like Malgin had to adjust to or even a guy like Wellwood became in his Vancouver years.

I think we'll have to see what comes of similar guys like an SDA or Abramov, their 2 way games seem to have rounded out enough that an offensive 3W isn't a crazy floor the way it was on draft day with a top 6 or euro league boom/bust profile.

I would say Holmberg is less of a lottery ticket than say Stankoven even though he was drafted lower and had less production post-draft, coin flip odds at a passable 4th liner vs 1 in 4 chance you get a 70 point winger on an ELC.

 

[LeafChief]

I think that's the thing I've been struggling to articulate, the only case for Voit/Lisowsky being "lottery ticket prospects" is their draft position.

In an alternate world where we take Lisowsky at 79 is he viewed that way? Or as a third round steal that's going stride for stride with Firkus in their D+1?

If not for Covid making a Voit a 5th rounder that didn't have a draft year or U18/Hlinka, is he regarded as having the pedigree to legitimize his post draft production?

This is bang on. A lot of people put too much stock into draft pick # after the pick has been made. Not just fans but executives too. It's why you see so many failed 1st rounders get chance after chance to prove themselves with different organizations.

 

[4thline]

It's not their draft position imo but more the jobs they're competing for. Minten, Knies, and the Marlies are likely to be at least effective 3rd liners for us, anything more is gravy. Voit needs to make it as a top-6er with a small chance he could work out as a reformed bottom-6 specialist like Malgin had to adjust to or even a guy like Wellwood became in his Vancouver years.

I think we'll have to see what comes of similar guys like an SDA or Abramov, their 2 way games seem to have rounded out enough that an offensive 3W isn't a crazy floor the way it was on draft day with a top 6 or euro league boom/bust profile.

I would say Holmberg is less of a lottery ticket than say Stankoven even though he was drafted lower and had less production post-draft, coin flip odds at a passable 4th liner vs 1 in 4 chance you get a 70 point winger on an ELC.

Fair.

I guess what I'm trying to discuss is the perception of value of high upside players, and draft slot does figure into that. Voit/Lisowsky's post draft performance coupled with a higher draft slot would see them valued much higher despite still not having that bottom of the lineup translation factor. They wouldn't be viewed as boom bust lottery tickets, just as high end offensive prospects with low floors.

 

[4thline]

This is bang on. A lot of people put too much stock into draft pick # after the pick has been made. Not just fans but executives too. It's why you see so many failed 1st rounders get chance after chance to prove themselves with different organizations.

I'd pay an unreasonable amount of money to have Future Greats and Heartbreaks level access to the Leafs draft board and discussion from the last couple seasons

 

[LeafChief]

I'd pay an unreasonable amount of money to have Future Greats and Heartbreaks level access to the Leafs draft board and discussion from the last couple seasons

Didn't Wheeler just release a very similar book to Gare Joyce's but Leafs specific?

I haven't read it yet. Wondering if anyone in here has?

 

[4thline]

Didn't Wheeler just release a very similar book to Gare Joyce's but Leafs specific?

I haven't read it yet. Wondering if anyone in here has?

I hadn't heard of that, but two minutes of googling + a low opinion of Wheeler has me very skeptical. Seems more like a retrospective with targeted interviews than the immersive all access behind the scenes gold of Joyce's book.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Didn't Wheeler just release a very similar book to Gare Joyce's but Leafs specific?

I haven't read it yet. Wondering if anyone in here has?

I asked Santa for it for Christmas. Cant wait to read it! I heard about it when he was a guest on the Dangle podcast. Supposed to have testimonies from several sources including former GMs at the draft table/war room.

I wish the Leafs did more content on this stuff on Blueprint.

 

[Namikaze Minato]

i think minten turning into a david kampf at ES/PK who can also be a PP2 trigger man would be a win

I dont agree with this at all. Holmberg becoming a David Kampf would be a good pick in the 5th round, our high second round pick being David Kampf wouldn't be a win in my eyes, even if he has a pp2 trigger spot, players like that are more easily available on the market.

I would love for Minten to become more like a Sebastian Aho of course but realistically if he ended up more like an Anthony Cirelli (third rounder in the Mcjesus draft) would be a nice win.

 

[LeafChief]

I asked Santa for it for Christmas. Cant wait to read it! I heard about it when he was a guest on the Dangle podcast. Supposed to have testimonies from several sources including former GMs at the draft table/war room.

I wish the Leafs did more content on this stuff on Blueprint.

Let us know how it is once you've read it!

 

[TheBeastCoast]

I dont agree with this at all. Holmberg becoming a David Kampf would be a good pick in the 5th round, our high second round pick being David Kampf wouldn't be a win in my eyes, even if he has a pp2 trigger spot, players like that are more easily available on the market.

I would love for Minten to become more like a Sebastian Aho of course but realistically if he ended up more like an Anthony Cirelli (third rounder in the Mcjesus draft) would be a nice win.

If a 2nd round pick becomes a regular NHLer that is a good return on the pick objectively. Obviously hitting an absolute home run in the 2nd round is the goal but it can't be the expectation. It is very rare.

 

[meefer]

From an article in the Star...

"Shaw said Clune set the template for the captain’s role with the Marlies, who will host the Belleville Senators on Monday afternoon at Scotiabank Arena, home of the Maple Leafs.

“I don’t think it’s a challenge,” Shaw said of adjusting to the C in Toronto. “(Clune) actually made it easier in the way he led, and how he taught the young guys to be professionals and act every day, and come to the rink to work ... He’s always around here now, trying to help out in the best way he can. I played with him a couple of years and have a great relationship with him.”

I can't speak with any authority on the Marlies, that's why I come to this thread, but I think it's fair to say that the call-ups this year have presented in the way that reflects this attitude. Good on Shaw, and Clune, for forging an identity that our feeder team provides.

How Logan Shaw became captain of the Toronto Marlies

The veteran forward, in his first year with the Leafs’ AHL club, learned a lot from predecessor Rich Clune, and a couple of NHL superstars closer to home.

www.thestar.com

 

[uncleben]

From an article in the Star...

"Shaw said Clune set the template for the captain’s role with the Marlies, who will host the Belleville Senators on Monday afternoon at Scotiabank Arena, home of the Maple Leafs.

“I don’t think it’s a challenge,” Shaw said of adjusting to the C in Toronto. “(Clune) actually made it easier in the way he led, and how he taught the young guys to be professionals and act every day, and come to the rink to work ... He’s always around here now, trying to help out in the best way he can. I played with him a couple of years and have a great relationship with him.”

I can't speak with any authority on the Marlies, that's why I come to this thread, but I think it's fair to say that the call-ups this year have presented in the way that reflects this attitude. Good on Shaw, and Clune, for forging an identity that our feeder team provides.

How Logan Shaw became captain of the Toronto Marlies

The veteran forward, in his first year with the Leafs’ AHL club, learned a lot from predecessor Rich Clune, and a couple of NHL superstars closer to home.

www.thestar.com

Nice to see they're keeping Clune in the organization, too!

 

[Namikaze Minato]

If a 2nd round pick becomes a regular NHLer that is a good return on the pick objectively. Obviously hitting an absolute home run in the 2nd round is the goal but it can't be the expectation. It is very rare.

Again, I just dont really agree. If 6 months after drafting a prospect in the early second round people are hoping he's as good as david kampf that is a loss in my opinion.

Edit: I dont see people saying things like "gee, I sure hope Niemela is as good as Justin Holl! He's an every day NHLer and that would be a win!"

 

[Martin Skoula]

Again, I just dont really agree. If 6 months after drafting a prospect in the early second round people are hoping he's as good as david kampf that is a loss in my opinion.

Edit: I dont see people saying things like "gee, I sure hope Niemela is as good as Justin Holl! He's an every day NHLer and that would be a win!"

But if we traded a 2nd for a Kampf clone at more than ELC money people would say that was a good trade. Being as good as Kampf/Holl at 22-23 gets them into the NHL and then you're playing the same lottery hoping they grow their games further by the time they're off their ELCs. Settle for a cheaper Kampf, hope for Cirelli.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Again, I just dont really agree. If 6 months after drafting a prospect in the early second round people are hoping he's as good as david kampf that is a loss in my opinion.

Edit: I dont see people saying things like "gee, I sure hope Niemela is as good as Justin Holl! He's an every day NHLer and that would be a win!"

I mean that is fine for you not to agree but that is just flat out reality. Like I said it is fine to hope on the best outcome possible. Getting an Aho in the 2nd round happens like once every 5-10 years at best....in the entire league. So again if you get an elite defensive 3rd line centre out of a 2nd round pick that is absolutely a great pick every single damn time. Cut and dry.

 

[Prominence]

Again, I just dont really agree. If 6 months after drafting a prospect in the early second round people are hoping he's as good as david kampf that is a loss in my opinion.

Edit: I dont see people saying things like "gee, I sure hope Niemela is as good as Justin Holl! He's an every day NHLer and that would be a win!"

I agree.

I would assume that the leafs have one of the highest budgets for research, development, and resources for amateur drafting and if the best they can do in the 2nd round is a guy with bottom six upside, then something is seriously wrong.

Players like kampf can be signed in FA for slightly below market value. You want to draft guys that are harder to acquire via free agency or trade. Development requires a bunch of resources, time, and commitment. Opportunity cost is a guy who can contribute more to a team.

The reason we need to draft good players is so that we get a player who can contribute more than $3 mil+ in value while paying them $1mil. This is really important as leafs are in playoff contention. The teams that win it tend to have elc guys who score more than 3rd liners despite playing in the 3rd line. I don’t know if you get that minten although minten can be that guy you sign every year and you hope he gets better, but you’d rather go for more upside as it leads to championship success.

I have watched minten play. He’s good at making transitions easier for his teammates. Despite not having a lot of es points, he does improve his team’s success by generating opportunities and makes the right play most of the time. When he screws up, he is hell bent on fixing his mistakes. He does the little things like board battles, stick picks, and gets open to execute transitions. His lack of es points is due to his teammates not being able to finish and minten doesn’t have high end skills.

 

[stickty111]

I agree.

I would assume that the leafs have one of the highest budgets for research, development, and resources for amateur drafting and if the best they can do in the 2nd round is a guy with bottom six upside, then something is seriously wrong.

Players like kampf can be signed in FA for slightly below market value. You want to draft guys that are harder to acquire via free agency or trade. Development requires a bunch of resources, time, and commitment. Opportunity cost is a guy who can contribute more to a team.

The reason we need to draft good players is so that we get a player who can contribute more than $3 mil+ in value while paying them $1mil. This is really important as leafs are in playoff contention. The teams that win it tend to have elc guys who score more than 3rd liners despite playing in the 3rd line. I don’t know if you get that minten although minten can be that guy you sign every year and you hope he gets better, but you’d rather go for more upside as it leads to championship success.

I have watched minten play. He’s good at making transitions easier for his teammates. Despite not having a lot of es points, he does improve his team’s success by generating opportunities and makes the right play most of the time. When he screws up, he is hell bent on fixing his mistakes. He does the little things like board battles, stick picks, and gets open to execute transitions. His lack of es points is due to his teammates not being able to finish and minten doesn’t have high end skills.

Your post would make sense if Minten had only bottom 6 upside and we still selected him but thats not true. If you can get a solid 3rd line C out of your 2nd round pick then thats a good pick. You hope to get an NHL player and look to make him better. It's not a bad scenario at all.

 

[Namikaze Minato]

I mean that is fine for you not to agree but that is just flat out reality. Like I said it is fine to hope on the best outcome possible. Getting an Aho in the 2nd round happens like once every 5-10 years at best....in the entire league. So again if you get an elite defensive 3rd line centre out of a 2nd round pick that is absolutely a great pick every single damn time. Cut and dry.

Cant tell me about reality and then say something patently false. Robertson was drafted the year after Aho and thats just off the top of my head. Wasnt Andersson, Calgary's number 1 defenceman also a second rounder that year or the year after? Demko was in there somehwere too but goalies dont really count. Then obviously Kucherov was a second rounder about a decade ago.

Then, to add to that, thats not even who I realistically wanted Minten to become like, i said it as an obvious pipe dream.

Would you be upset if Niemela became Justin Holl or do you consider that a win?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I mean that is fine for you not to agree but that is just flat out reality. Like I said it is fine to hope on the best outcome possible. Getting an Aho in the 2nd round happens like once every 5-10 years at best....in the entire league. So again if you get an elite defensive 3rd line centre out of a 2nd round pick that is absolutely a great pick every single damn time. Cut and dry.

The issue I have is that an elite defensive 3rd line center is his upside. He doesn't have enough offensive skill to be a top 6 player, so you are betting on a low ceiling, high floor player.

If everything goes right, then you have a solid role player, but still one that you can rather consistently find in the mid-3rd round each year. Then you also consider how often everything goes right? If everything doesn't go right, is he just a run-of-the mill bottom 6er (or worse)? A high 2nd round pick for that is a reach.

Cant tell me about reality and then say something patently false. Robertson was drafted the year after Aho and thats just off the top of my head. Wasnt Andersson, Calgary's number 1 defenceman also a second rounder that year or the year after? Demko was in there somehwere too but goalies dont really count. Then obviously Kucherov was a second rounder about a decade ago.

Then, to add to that, thats not even who I realistically wanted Minten to become like, i said it as an obvious pipe dream.

Would you be upset if Niemela became Justin Holl or do you consider that a win?

Massive win.

He was an early 3rd round pick (not an early 2nd round pick) and a shutdown top 4 defensive defenseman > shutdown 3C.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Cant tell me about reality and then say something patently false. Robertson was drafted the year after Aho and thats just off the top of my head. Wasnt Andersson, Calgary's number 1 defenceman also a second rounder that year or the year after? Demko was in there somehwere too but goalies dont really count. Then obviously Kucherov was a second rounder about a decade ago.

Then, to add to that, thats not even who I realistically wanted Minten to become like, i said it as an obvious pipe dream.

Would you be upset if Niemela became Justin Holl or do you consider that a win?

I would consider that a win. Getting a multi year NHL player out of a 3rd round pick is a win.

The issue I have is that an elite defensive 3rd line center is his upside. He doesn't have enough offensive skill to be a top 6 player, so you are betting on a low ceiling, high floor player.

If everything goes right, then you have a solid role player, but still one that you can rather consistently find in the mid-3rd round each year. Then you also consider how often everything goes right? If everything doesn't go right, is he just a run-of-the mill bottom 6er (or worse)? A high 2nd round pick for that is a reach.



Massive win.

He was an early 3rd round pick (not an early 2nd round pick) and a shutdown top 4 defensive defenseman > shutdown 3C.

I guess I disagree that his upside is so locked in at 18 years old. Like just inherently I don't agree with that and he has shown this year flashes of skill that would play higher up in a lineup. He is producing better then would be expected, but on one of the best teams in the CHL. Next season is likely the season that really puts light on what his true potential is going forward, but I think just shutting the door and saying, well 3rd line centre is the cap already is a step to quick.

 

[Namikaze Minato]

Massive win.

He was an early 3rd round pick (not an early 2nd round pick) and a shutdown top 4 defensive defenseman > shutdown 3C.

I would consider that a win. Getting a multi year NHL player out of a 3rd round pick is a win.

Sweet, Holl never played a single game for the team that drafted him, so you two consider it a massive win for Niemela to join the NHL in his mid-late 20s for a different NHL team?

I bet if you ask Chicago fans they dont consider drafting him in the second round a win.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Sweet, Holl never played a single game for the team that drafted him, so you two consider it a massive win for Niemela to join the NHL in his mid-late 20s for a different NHL team?

I bet if you ask Chicago fans they dont consider drafting him in the second round a win.

You are moving the goal posts now lol you simply asked if he turned into Justin Holl would that be considered a win. If Neimela turns into a Justin Holl that is a good outcome for the pick. Obviously you want to either get value out of the prospect or them to play for your team, didn't think that needed to be stated! You seriously do need to figure out your own expectations on the hit rate of prospects drafted outside the first round though. Niemela looks promising, there is still no assurances at all he even becomes a guy at the NHL level, at all.

 

[Namikaze Minato]

You are moving the goal posts now lol you simply asked if he turned into Justin Holl would that be considered a win. If Neimela turns into a Justin Holl that is a good outcome for the pick. Obviously you want to either get value out of the prospect or them to play for your team, didn't think that needed to be stated! You seriously do need to figure out your own expectations on the hit rate of prospects drafted outside the first round though. Niemela looks promising, there is still no assurances at all he even becomes a guy at the NHL level, at all.

We fundamentally disagree with each other.