Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread - 2021/22 PART II

[SeaOfBlue]

As long as they don't turn over the puck I don't care how tall they are. I've been a fan that has consistently said size doesn't matter. What you need is grit and work ethic and that has nothing to do with size.

Okay but Hollowell does not have grit and his work ethic/IQ is nothing special. I have less bias against size than I do against offensive defensemen (especially ones who can't put up very much offense) and guys who do not have any skill that would let them carve out a role in the NHL.

I actually had concerns about Holl and Rubins' upside for the same reason. Both were big and could move the puck, but neither were going to put up enough offense in the NHL to make up for iffy defense, and they were both iffy defenders in the AHL. Rubins has looked better now that he has a better partner than he did last year which, ironically, was Hollowell. Holl seemed to learn that to make it to the NHL, he needs to completely change his game and he did... And I am sure having Muzzin as a partner really helped a lot too.

But what does Hollowell bring to the Leafs' lineup going forward? He is just as inconsistent, if not more inconsistent, offensively than both Rubins and Holl. He has more defensive concerns than both Rubins and Holl. And he is very undersized to boot. Where is the upside?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

It's definitely in much better hands than it was with Hunter and Lou. Even though those guys had more draft picks to work with. I just wish we did something different with our Russian prospects. Guys like Kara, Kizimov, and Ovchinnikov all had some good tools, but poor development paths and a lack of ice time can really hurt these types of players.

I think we just need to draft better Russians.

 

[Twine Tickler]

I couldn’t be happier with the state of the organization right now. Dubas has done a tremendous job, warts and all.

I see a lot of these guys becoming decent NHL players at the very least. Especially at wing which gives us options moving forward.

Could not agree more.

I have more faith in Dubas than ever before TBH. I think people confuse his "unwavering loyalty" to the core 4 as him being stubborn. Which is just not true at all. He's routinely walked away from mistakes he's made, Ritchie being the latest, in hopes of better surrounding our core 4.

There was a lot of yelling when Hyman left, but he managed to backfill him quite easily.

And as you, myself, and many others on here have suggested in the past, his ability to spot talent in the draft is next level IMO. I think his organizational philosophy on drafting skill and acquiring role players through trade and UFA has been working thus far, and we haven't even seen the fruits of his drafting in our lineup yet. It's really not that far fetched to think of a forward group that includes Robertson, Knies, Amirov, Hirvonen, Steeves and Holmberg in a couple years time. In addition to our core 4.

Amirov - Matthews - Marner
Knies - Tavares - Nylander
Robertson - Kampf - Kase
Holmberg - Hirvonen - Steeves

Even if we only see 3 of the 5 players listed above make that jump to full time NHL'ers by the 2023-24 season, we could see a ridiculously talented roster.

We have a healthy chance at the cup this year, but I truly think our big year will be the next 2 years with all these ELC deals coming into the picture.

 

[showtime8]

Does this exposure for Knies change any of the mindset for the Leafs on what his timeline is going to be?

Would it be out of the question to have him signed to an NHL contract and leave school early to join the Leafs for a playoff run if he holds his own at the Olympics? I know that the competition isn't going to be amazing and it will be tough to gauge it, but if he's flying at the Olympics put up a respectable point total or contributions, why wouldn't the Leafs at the very least entertain the possibility of him joining their team.

Maybe it speeds up his timeline by a year - year and a half.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Knies and Abruzzese in the Olympics would be awesome.

 

[Bonin21]

Does this exposure for Knies change any of the mindset for the Leafs on what his timeline is going to be?

Would it be out of the question to have him signed to an NHL contract and leave school early to join the Leafs for a playoff run if he holds his own at the Olympics? I know that the competition isn't going to be amazing and it will be tough to gauge it, but if he's flying at the Olympics put up a respectable point total or contributions, why wouldn't the Leafs at the very least entertain the possibility of him joining their team.

Maybe it speeds up his timeline by a year - year and a half.

Come on man. Let him finish the season for us, at least...

Before the season I had him at three years in college. At this point I have him at 50% gone after this year, 50% gone after next year... He's that good.

 

[francis246]

Come on man. Let him finish the season for us, at least...

Before the season I had him at three years in college. At this point I have him at 50% gone after this year, 50% gone after next year... He's that good.

they should take the patient approach with him and let him develop. Ala Shane Pinto. 2 years NCAA and then bring him over. & hopefully he’s NHL ready after the two years as opposed to 1 year than Marlies

 

[Kiwi]

they should take the patient approach with him and let him develop. Ala Shane Pinto. 2 years NCAA and then bring him over. & hopefully he’s NHL ready after the two years as opposed to 1 year than Marlies

If he's NHL ready bringing him in for the latter part of next season and playoffs would make sense, After the NCAA season is over

That's the earliest I'd be looking at him

 

[francis246]

If he's NHL ready bringing him in for the latter part of next season and playoffs would make sense, After the NCAA season is over

That's the earliest I'd be looking at him

where’s he going to play? The left side is already a log jam at this point. I guess we’ll have to see what the roster looks like next year

 

[LeafChief]

I would leave Knies in the NCAA for one more year unless he absolutely blows the doors off in the second half + Olympics.

 

[showtime8]

Come on man. Let him finish the season for us, at least...

Before the season I had him at three years in college. At this point I have him at 50% gone after this year, 50% gone after next year... He's that good.

In the grand scheme of things, it's better to let him develop. I get that.
All I was saying was, would it even be in consideration at this point for the Leafs.

 

[4thline]

Re Knies coming out of school - had he gone the CHL route he'd be an overager next year and be expected to make the transition to the AHL. A bit of an odd case since he's been effectively raised as an 03 for hockey purposes, but it would not surprise me to see him signed and finish the year with the Marlies, with the expectation that that's where he'll be next year.

@Canada4Gold, correct me if I'm wrong here, but if he was signed to a 2022 Leafs contract would that count as the signing year, and get rid of his late-birthday U21 slide year?

Trying to figure out which would be in his favour, a 4 year ELC (assuming in the A next year) with NHL signing bonuses now, or a 3 year ELC with PTO/AHL contract now.

 

[SprDaVE]

 

[showtime8]

I would leave Knies in the NCAA for one more year unless he absolutely blows the doors off in the second half + Olympics.

The only reason I brought this up before was because I thought they did this scenario with Nick Robertson coming straight out of Junior and right into the playoff run without playing any regular season games.

There are instances where other teams have done this, but it's probably with higher rated prospects.

 

[Kiwi]

where’s he going to play? The left side is already a log jam at this point. I guess we’ll have to see what the roster looks like next year

If he's good enough you make room for him, I doubt he'd be in the top 6 even in a best case scenario

 

[WTFMAN99]

Knies and Amirov make me feel okay with using Robertson as a potential trade chip, especially with Bunting's ability to play up and down the line up too

 

[nobody]

The only reason I brought this up before was because I thought they did this scenario with Nick Robertson coming straight out of Junior and right into the playoff run without playing any regular season games.

There are instances where other teams have done this, but it's probably with higher rated prospects.

There's a massive difference between NCAA vs CHL though. Robertson would most likely have been assigned to his OHL team the following season if he hadn't made the Leafs team. But unfortunately for him, injuries derailed his year along with the OHL lockdown, and subsequently he was forced to play for a mediocre Marlies team. Knies is in a great situation in college, playing for a great program where he has a huge role on the team already. If he flops in the NHL, he would have to go down to the Marlies and forcefully turn pro since you can't sign an NHL deal and go back to the NCAA.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Re Knies coming out of school - had he gone the CHL route he'd be an overager next year and be expected to make the transition to the AHL. A bit of an odd case since he's been effectively raised as an 03 for hockey purposes, but it would not surprise me to see him signed and finish the year with the Marlies, with the expectation that that's where he'll be next year.

@Canada4Gold, correct me if I'm wrong here, but if he was signed to a 2022 Leafs contract would that count as the signing year, and get rid of his late-birthday U21 slide year?

Trying to figure out which would be in his favour, a 4 year ELC (assuming in the A next year) with NHL signing bonuses now, or a 3 year ELC with PTO/AHL contract now.

I think if he signed now he wouldn't be eligible to slide in the 2022/23 season because it's now 2022. Dermott for example signed before the end of 2015 so his 2016/17 year in the AHL slid. Had he signed early 2016 it wouldn't have. If that's correct then regardless of whether he signs now or this summer his contract would start next year(unless he played 10+ games this year to start the contract now). The only way to prevent that at this point would be to leave him in the NCAA for his sophomore year.

 

[nobody]

Knies and Amirov make me feel okay with using Robertson as a potential trade chip, especially with Bunting's ability to play up and down the line up too

I feel like both Amirov and Knies are fantastic prospects to have and offer a ton of 2 way value. Both guys can slot in anywhere in the top 9 but I do think of them as being more of a complimentary piece to their lines more than line drivers. Robertson to me has game-breaking talent (ala Cole Caufield/ Alex Debrincat/ Brad Marchand) and I think he can in the future be THE GUY on his line. He does have a long way to go in terms of maturing his body and getting comfortable with the NHL game. But if all 3 of these guys are the top of their games, in a vacuum, Robertson is my guy all day long.

It's so refreshing to see what a great job Kyle and the scouts have done with this franchise in the last 4 years. We had a huge influx of absolute stud prospects in Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Hyman, Brown, Johnsson, Kapanen when this rebuild got going but since then we haven't really had a good 2nd wave of players to fill in and provide cheap impact talent. We've been forced to plug those holes with veterans and players who are cheap but just not that great but now as that first group of players is about to enter their absolute prime, Dubas and Co have the reinforcements ready to come in and I think that is going to be huge. I don't want to jinx anything but this next 3-5 year window is ours. We need to capitalize and get a cup out of it. Knies, Amirov, Robertson, Sandin, Liljegren, Niemela, Tverberg, Abruzzesse, Holmberg, Hirvonen, Steeves, Abramov, Miettinen, Kral, Rubins. I doubt we get any star/superstar level players out of this group but all these kids can play a huge role in providing the depth to sustainably compete.

 

[showtime8]

There's a massive difference between NCAA vs CHL though. Robertson would most likely have been assigned to his OHL team the following season if he hadn't made the Leafs team. But unfortunately for him, injuries derailed his year along with the OHL lockdown, and subsequently he was forced to play for a mediocre Marlies team. Knies is in a great situation in college, playing for a great program where he has a huge role on the team already. If he flops in the NHL, he would have to go down to the Marlies and forcefully turn pro since you can't sign an NHL deal and go back to the NCAA.

I could be wrong, but I thought that even though Robertson would have been eligible to go back to the Petes, they were wanting him to go to the Marlies.

I don't think that changes anything in the discussion, but I didn't bring this up with the intention of saying that I think the Leafs should bring Knies in after the Olympics. It was just regarding whether they would even consider it.

 

[nobody]

I could be wrong, but I thought that even though Robertson would have been eligible to go back to the Petes, they were wanting him to go to the Marlies.

I don't think that changes anything in the discussion, but I didn't bring this up with the intention of saying that I think the Leafs should bring Knies in after the Olympics. It was just regarding whether they would even consider it.

If the OHL season was on, Robertson wouldn't be eligible to play for the Marlies. He would have had to be loaned back to Peterborough unless he was assigned to Marlies on a conditioning stint. He would have to go back because he would still be in his age 19 season there and he hadn't played in the OHL for 4 years to that point.

IMO Robertson to the Leafs is what DeBrincat has been for the Hawks. Cat in his D+1 year put up 127 points and 65 goals in 63 games playing for a stacked Otters team. Robertson D+1 was on pace for 118 points and 76 goals if he had played 63 games that year on a far inferior Petes team.

Cat played with Strome who had 75 points in 35 games as his 1C. Robertson had SDA as his 1C who put up 75 points in 55 games.

 

[Kiwi]

Knies and Amirov make me feel okay with using Robertson as a potential trade chip, especially with Bunting's ability to play up and down the line up too

I'm going to want something ******* good with term if I'm trading a guy like Robertson and I just don't see that trade out there at the moment

 

[LeafChief]

I'm going to want something ******* good with term if I'm trading a guy like Robertson and I just don't see that trade out there at the moment

It sucks that he's lost so much time to injury already. Had he been playing consistently this year we'd likely have seen him in a ton of NHL games so far this year.

Great news is he has started skating again.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I'm going to want something ******* good with term if I'm trading a guy like Robertson and I just don't see that trade out there at the moment

Mayfield most likely...1.45M this year and next and can play in the top 4 as a right handed shot...not sure we can find a better fit...

 

[hockeynorth]

Mayfield most likely...1.45M this year and next and can play in the top 4 as a right handed shot...not sure we can find a better fit...

Mayfield has not been good without Pelech, that's important to note.