Prospect Info: Marlies/Prospects Thread - 2021/22 PART II

[The Blueprint]

Trending up:

Pontus Holmberg - He already has the SHL MVP in the playoffs trophy under his belt last season proving last season's production increase was not joke. At this point I'm not sure there are 5 prospects in our system that are better than him. 3rd best league in the world, playing as a mixture of 1C/1W with .87 PPG dominating possession. If he was an UDFA 22 year old playing in the SHL right now, 32 teams would be lining up to put him in their NHL lineup next season.

Matthew Knies - You watch the guy, you fall in love. Stats guys, old school guys, doesn't matter. His skating issues were massively overblown, he looks like the best forward on one of the best teams in the NCAA and he went from barely on Team USA's radar in the summer to being a lock for the WJC. The production is great for a freshman and it seems like he's getting more comfortable every game I watch.

Topi Niemela - What else can be said? The points keep flowing, the minutes have increased, the OZS has decreased and the rel.CF% has increased. He's continuing on his historic pace. If you don't count Liljegren and Sandin anymore, I'm not sure it's even a debate for who is our best prospect. Cannot wait to see what he does as the #1D for Finland at the WJC.

Axel Rindell - I think it's well known I'm not the biggest fan of his due to his lack of defensive ability, and his massive fall off at the end of last season, and early this season. Credit where credit is due though: He's been outstanding with Karpat. Positive rel number, 9 points in 7 games, being trusted WAY more in the defensive zone (7.2% increase in DZS), and by all accounts looking very good. Still not sure he's anything, but after being almost relegated to my "non-prospect" tier, he's moved back into my late Tier-3.

Alex Steeves - I mean, the guy turns 22 in ten days and he's crushing the AHL. I knew he had some ability, but he's exceeding my expectations in every way. I don't see why he shouldn't play some games this season if we get hit by an injury bug. Deserves it more than basically anyone besides maybe Ho-Sang and Semyonov. He should be on the roster next year no doubt.

Other Notables: Nick Abruzzese, Semyon Der-Arguchintsev, Erik Kallgren, Semyon Kizimov, Joe Miller, Ryan Tverberg, Joseph Woll.

Trending Down:

John Fusco, Pavel Gogolev, Mikko Kokkonen, Veeti Miettinen,

Non-Prospects:

Vladimir Bobylyov, Nickolai Chebykin, Kalle Loponen, Ryan O'Connell.

Hate hearing miettinen is trending the wrong way. I figured his shot alone would get him into the AHL. Granted I haven't seen anything other than highlights but the board seemed pretty high on him last year.

 

[stickty111]

Great goal in OT. Added an assist today.
Wasn't a fan of the ELC and still don't get it, but I trust Dubas on prospects, and he's picked it up recently

 

[Morgs]

Hate hearing miettinen is trending the wrong way. I figured his shot alone would get him into the AHL. Granted I haven't seen anything other than highlights but the board seemed pretty high on him last year.

Its more that with his season last year he was trending to the point where he had a legit argument as one of the best prospects besides Sandin, Liljegren, Robertson, and Amirov in our pool. This season hasn't been bad by any means, but he's not done nearly as well as he did last year. It's similar to Kokkonen for me in that he's still a very good prospect, but the trend isn't continuing the way it should for an impact NHL player.

 

[Mitch nylander]

What's going on with Wyatt Schingoethe from a stat-watching perspective looks like an absolute waste of a pick, but it's a 7th so you can't expect much.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Trending up:

Pontus Holmberg - He already has the SHL MVP in the playoffs trophy under his belt last season proving last season's production increase was not joke. At this point I'm not sure there are 5 prospects in our system that are better than him. 3rd best league in the world, playing as a mixture of 1C/1W with .87 PPG dominating possession. If he was an UDFA 22 year old playing in the SHL right now, 32 teams would be lining up to put him in their NHL lineup next season.

Matthew Knies - You watch the guy, you fall in love. Stats guys, old school guys, doesn't matter. His skating issues were massively overblown, he looks like the best forward on one of the best teams in the NCAA and he went from barely on Team USA's radar in the summer to being a lock for the WJC. The production is great for a freshman and it seems like he's getting more comfortable every game I watch.

Topi Niemela - What else can be said? The points keep flowing, the minutes have increased, the OZS has decreased and the rel.CF% has increased. He's continuing on his historic pace. If you don't count Liljegren and Sandin anymore, I'm not sure it's even a debate for who is our best prospect. Cannot wait to see what he does as the #1D for Finland at the WJC.

Axel Rindell - I think it's well known I'm not the biggest fan of his due to his lack of defensive ability, and his massive fall off at the end of last season, and early this season. Credit where credit is due though: He's been outstanding with Karpat. Positive rel number, 9 points in 7 games, being trusted WAY more in the defensive zone (7.2% increase in DZS), and by all accounts looking very good. Still not sure he's anything, but after being almost relegated to my "non-prospect" tier, he's moved back into my late Tier-3.

Alex Steeves - I mean, the guy turns 22 in ten days and he's crushing the AHL. I knew he had some ability, but he's exceeding my expectations in every way. I don't see why he shouldn't play some games this season if we get hit by an injury bug. Deserves it more than basically anyone besides maybe Ho-Sang and Semyonov. He should be on the roster next year no doubt.

Other Notables: Nick Abruzzese, Semyon Der-Arguchintsev, Erik Kallgren, Semyon Kizimov, Joe Miller, Ryan Tverberg, Joseph Woll.

Trending Down:

John Fusco, Pavel Gogolev, Mikko Kokkonen, Veeti Miettinen,

Non-Prospects:

Vladimir Bobylyov, Nickolai Chebykin, Kalle Loponen, Ryan O'Connell.

Semyonov has basically told us what he is...I wouldn't mind seeing Steeves at this point if an opening comes.

Wonder if Holmberg could be our opening night 4C or LW next year?

 

[Morgs]

What's going on with Wyatt Schingoethe from a stat-watching perspective looks like an absolute waste of a pick, but it's a 7th so you can't expect much.

I actually tried watching a game of his recently to see what was going on, but he wasn't in the lineup. I scrolled back on their lines and here's where he lined up this season based on twitter:

Oct 8th - Extra F
Oct 9th - 4LW
Oct 22 - 4LW
Oct 23 - 4LW
Oct 29 - 4LW
Oct 30 - 4LW
Nov 5 - 4RW
Nov 6 - 4RW
Nov 12 - DNP
Nov 13 - DNP
Nov 19 - DNP
Nov 26 - DNP
Nov 27 - DNP

Guy hasn't been in the lineup since Nov 6. He's one of only 2 drafted players on that team (the other is the top-pair RD) and for whatever reason he simply isn't playing. I've looked everywhere for an injury because at least that would make sense, but I can't find anything about one. It looks like they simply don't see him as one of their best 14 forwards. This is a team with nothing players and they're 10-4 overall and 3-3 in their tough conference (NCHC). Maybe they know what they're doing.

 

[Leafed]

Trending up:

Pontus Holmberg - He already has the SHL MVP in the playoffs trophy under his belt last season proving last season's production increase was not joke. At this point I'm not sure there are 5 prospects in our system that are better than him. 3rd best league in the world, playing as a mixture of 1C/1W with .87 PPG dominating possession. If he was an UDFA 22 year old playing in the SHL right now, 32 teams would be lining up to put him in their NHL lineup next season.

....

I went searching for Holmberg comparables the other day to try to contextualize how he's doing. Most drafted Swedish NHL players did not stick around for their D + 4 year like Holmberg currently is. A Johnsson had a better D + 3 season than Holmberg (.85 PPG) in line with Holmberg's D + 4 numbers a year earlier. Even though his playoff success and the sudden statistical uptick is worth tracking, important to be realistic about his offensive projection and potential top-6 ability, or lack thereof.

He is most likely a bottom-six forward, if he makes it, at NHL level. For what it's worth Engvall was ~ .65 PPG in his D + 4. Can anyone else offer up other comparables?

 

[Leafs at Knight]

I went searching for Holmberg comparables the other day to try to contextualize how he's doing. Most drafted Swedish NHL players did not stick around for their D + 4 year like Holmberg currently is. A Johnsson had a better D + 3 season than Holmberg (.85 PPG) in line with Holmberg's D + 4 numbers a year earlier. Even though his playoff success and the sudden statistical uptick is worth tracking, important to be realistic about his offensive projection and potential top-6 ability, or lack thereof.

He is most likely a bottom-six forward, if he makes it, at NHL level. For what it's worth Engvall was ~ .65 PPG in his D + 4. Can anyone else offer up other comparables?

Not sure about any comparables, but I feel like the AHL and SHL are pretty even leagues; I know some people might even have the SHL as a better league, I'm pretty sure Holmberg would have good numbers in the AHL too.

 

[Twine Tickler]

Holmberg could be a Leaf next year. Ideally I think he'd get some seasoning in the AHL like Andreas Johnsson got when he made the jump from the SHL. But realistically there is going to need to be some money that needs to move out next year to accommodate a Campbell extension. I'm assuming some of Micheyev, Engvall, Ritchie, Kerfoot, and Mrazek will not be back with us next year. 4 of those players play on our left side. Which will open up some opportunities for our next wave youth.

Steeves seems like a no brainer, He just seems NHL ready IMO. Then a coin flip between Robertson/Holmberg/Amirov to fill in whatever voids are left on the LW side.

Holmberg has been on a rapid ascent for the last 2 seasons while the other 2 guys have been shelved with injuries. I think he has a real shot TBH

 

[stickty111]

Tverberg on the roster

 

[SprDaVE]

Tverberg on the roster

That's the prelim roster, right? Likely to be cut but... maybe he can have a Marchand level impact. He reminds me a lot of him at the same age.

Good news though to get recognized. What a heck of a 7th round pick.

 

[Marlow88]

Tverberg on the roster

This news is a pleasant surprise. What is shocking about the Canadian roster is no Brandt Clarke.

 

[67Cup]

Wow! Even if he doesn’t make the final team, that’s a great affirmation for Tverberg.

 

[stickty111]

That's the prelim roster, right? Likely to be cut but... maybe he can have a Marchand level impact. He reminds me a lot of him at the same age.

Good news though to get recognized. What a heck of a 7th round pick.

Yup it's prelimenary. Long shot but his type of player Hockey Canada will love so we'll see.

 

[LeafChief]

That's incredible for Tverberg.

 

[Brobust]

The leafs had a couple of lean years at the WJC after 34, 88, 16. Made it difficult to watch the WJCs.

Now it seems like every year there's a new leafs guy breaking out at the WJCs.

 

[Byron Bitz]

How do you pronounce Tverberg?

 

[Twine Tickler]

Tverberg earned a look. I really have no clue how likely his chances are at making the roster. I counted 21 forwards, so he'd have to beat our 9 players to crack the lineup and maybe 7 players to make the roster. Who knows, I would say likely not, but as many have said in here he plays a brand of hockey that is extremely Hockey Canada. I wouldn't be surprised 1 bit TBH

Still baffled about the Ovchinikov snub. I was really looking forward to watching him

 

[Menzinger]

 

[stickty111]

This kid will be fun to watch

 

[Twine Tickler]

He has to be the most intriguing prospect in our pool. He could be a massive steal at 57OA. He's already got the NHL build, NHL Shot, and plays hard as hell. Between him, Robertson, and Amirov we are going to be absolutely stacked on the Left side in the coming years. And that's not even considering Holmberg and Steeves.

I have a gut feeling Knies is going to majorly turn heads at the WJC. He absolutely dominated the showcase games in the summer if I remember correctly

 

[Menzinger]

He has to be the most intriguing prospect in our pool. He could be a massive steal at 57OA. He's already got the NHL build, NHL Shot, and plays hard as hell. Between him, Robertson, and Amirov we are going to be absolutely stacked on the Left side in the coming years. And that's not even considering Holmberg and Steeves.

I have a gut feeling Knies is going to majorly turn heads at the WJC. He absolutely dominated the showcase games in the summer if I remember correctly

He definitely has a bit more work to do development wise but he looks a lot more advanced this season than I was expecting.

 

[Menzinger]

Also didn't realize how good of a season Tverberg was having. And he was a 7th round pick!?!

 

[LeafChief]

The WJC is going to be fun with Knies, Hirvonen and Niemela not only all being there, but being in very prominent roles for the US and Finland.

If Tverberg somehow makes his way on to Canada, that would be incredible considering his journey. A good ol' Richmond Hill boy too.

 

[nobody]

Also didn't realize how good of a season Tverberg was having. And he was a 7th round pick!?!

He was a guy we traded back into the 7th round for too. I remember watching the draft and thinking why the heck would you acquire a 7th round pick and thought we might be going after a couple of the guys that were at risk of going undrafted and out of the blue we got this kid. He certainly had the numbers and a surprising Harvard commit at the time. Even the NHL network guys were like we don't know anything about this player other than he's committed to Harvard but since the Leafs were drafting from their own backyard, maybe they saw something.

Long story short. I'm glad we took a chance on this kid and having followed his game since the draft and watching his highlights and things quickly made me a fan. I have previously mentioned how he reminds me of a Zach Hyman type with his endless motor and grit and heart but he's got more skills arguably and a definitely better shot (NHL caliber shot already) that will really enamor him to a lot of Leafs fans.

I know he's an extreme longshot to crack team Canada but you best believe that I and many fellow Leafs on this board are fully behind him and think that he is 100% capable of it. He brings an element to the game that very few players will have and that is a mix of effort, size, versatility, and offensive abilities. And he is a good skater to boot. I think this guy is the exact type of player that team Canada has always loved and at times slapped a C on. Not saying he's going to be a captain or in a leadership position but I think he's got a good shot and if he can really get a chance to show his game, he's going to make a huge impact at this tournament.