For better or worse I do not see a scenario in which the Penguins trade Geno. It's not even the NMC as much as it is him earning the right to dictate how he spends the rest of his career as an organizational legend. The Penguins won't ask him to waive that NMC and if he does it it'll be because he wants to go somewhere specific. If he wants to be traded then he will be, but I can't imagine Malkin having any desire to uproot his life to enter the hired veteran hand role after starting a family with his personality and trophy case. It's hard to imagine Malkin in anything other than a Magnitogorsk, Penguins, or Team Russia jersey and the fact he hasn't worn a jersey of a different team since, well, I don't know what teams he played for as a child but he's exclusively worn one of those 3 jerseys since at least 2002. Hell, the fact that he went back to play for Mettalurg Magnitogorsk during the 2012 lockout kinda says it all considering how much drama and controversy there was around getting him to Pittsburgh barely 6 years prior.
I'm not saying Evgeni Malkin will spend the rest of his career as a Penguin, but I am saying Evgeni Malkin controls the reigns of where he spends the rest of his career. There's no reason for him to spend his late 30s chasing a Cup when he already has 3 and a young family. Little Nikita will be starting school around the time his current contract runs out, so you'll forgive me for thinking that a man who has spent his entire career with one Russian team and one North American team is unlikely to suddenly desire change. As to if Pittsburgh or Magnitogorsk is more likely in 2022-23, that is a question I expect will be ruminating in Malkin's mind until a choice is made. I expect Magnitogorsk, but that may just be to avoid the "disappointment" of not getting an asset for a guy who has already paid out dozens of times over and owes us nothing.
As a Penguins fan I'm ridiculously thankful for the luck involved in landing both Geno & Sid in back-to-back drafts. It's insane to get franchise players in back-to-back drafts in the first place, but to get franchise players in consecutive drafts with that kind of loyalty (or aversion to change) is almost as lucky of a break as landing players of that talent level in the first place. With the cap situation moving forward I really can't imagine him being a deadline option in 2022 being much of a thing (most teams in a situation to add a player of Malkin's caliber aren't going to have the cap space to take him and then there's the question if Malkin would waive for said team in the first place), so if he is going to be dealt it's next off-season or bust IMO. Short of the Penguins falling off of every cliff imaginable next season I can't imagine Geno asking for a move.
Now watch as Malkin does play out the rest of the contract in Pittsburgh and then signs as a UFA in Florida or something in 2022. If he does, good for him. When you've done as much for an organization as Evgeni Malkin has for the Penguins, you get to control how you depart. It's hard for me to imagine Malkin departing Pittsburgh any other way than his contract simply expiring. The when is a bigger question than the if to me, and it's going to come down to how he wants to raise his family.
FWIW as much as I can't picture Malkin in another NHL jersey...Florida is the only one that doesn't immediately make my brain crash. Like many players Malkin spends most of the off-season around Miami...but considering even his wife has recently said she imagines him playing his final season in Magnitogorsk I wouldn't be expecting that to happen if I were a Panthers fan, but it's the most plausible coda to his NHL career that doesn't involve Pittsburgh at this point in time.