Making your draft ranking for fantasy purposes

[NitroF]

Drafting for a keeper fantasy league is a very fun exercise. The drafting lists will vary a lot from those mock drafts and other lists where you draft for team building with so many other factors coming into account than offensive production, particularly in a points only league.



There are way less fantasy draft lists out there, they usually are from less credible sources, they are very different for points only vs categories leagues and the decision process is unclear and can vary a lot.



Obviously you try to hit for the highest ceiling, but comes a time where you must take the floor and risks into account. Not only does completing your lineup with players on entry level deal is more useful than busts, but some of the more complete players often gets more opportunities to eventually end up exceeding expectations.



I built a decision matrix where you can weight every factors following your preferences.



Here is mine, where I weight

• Offensive ceiling and floor: based on the premise that they have an NHL career taking outside risks of that equation
• Risk factor: injuries, size, easy to transpose style of play, geopolitical factors, off-ice issues, etc.
• Trending: Mostly self-explanatory. I find this more and more important to add recency fluctuations to the equation. Lesson learned from recent occurrences like M Seider, M McTavish and W Johnston.
  *50% = stable
• Team: Unknown information at the moment. Rating the quality of surrounding players, more offensive reliant team systems, future role on the team, number of similar prospects, personal preference, etc
• Late birthday bonus: 2005 = 0% | late 2006 = 100% | others = 50%

			Ceiling	Floor	Risk	Trending	Team	Age bonus
	Weighting	100 %	50 %	20 %	10 %	10 %	5 %	5 %
1	Celibrini	92 %	100 %	85 %	100 %	50 %	100 %	100 %
2	Demidov	84,5 %	100 %	85 %	50 %	50 %	100 %	50 %
3	Buium	84 %	100 %	70 %	75 %	75 %	100 %	0 %
4	Parekh	83,5 %	100 %	85 %	40 %	50 %	100 %	50 %
5	Levshunov	80,5 %	95 %	70 %	90 %	50 %	100 %	0 %
6	Catton	80 %	95 %	75 %	50 %	50 %	100 %	50 %
7	Lindstrom	79,5 %	95 %	60 %	50 %	75 %	100 %	50 %
8	Iginla	79 %	85 %	50 %	65 %	100 %	100 %	100 %
9	Sennecke	77 %	85 %	50 %	70 %	100 %	100 %	50 %
10	Eiserman	76 %	95 %	85 %	40 %	0 %	100 %	50 %
11	Dickinson	74 %	80 %	50 %	90 %	50 %	100 %	100 %
12	Yakemchul	73,5 %	85 %	65 %	80 %	50 %	100 %	0 %
13	Connelly	73,5 %	90 %	65 %	30 %	50 %	100 %	50 %
14	Helenius	73,5 %	80 %	60 %	90 %	25 %	100 %	100 %
15	Silayev	73,5 %	85 %	50 %	60 %	50 %	100 %	100 %

Thoughts about this kind of analysis?

Do you think of any other decision factors?

What weight would you put on each of the factors?

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[Kearns]

Nice exercise!

I think I would prefer decision factors more closely based on hockey skills we all talk about. Say, skating, size, hockey IQ, shot, passing, leadership, etc. The late birthday element is fun and worth a small weighting. I am not sure what you mean by team, and all the players listed have full marks, so I am not sure the value there.

Rather than giving them a % for each decision factor, I might score them out of a possible 6 points, based on a rubric, and then convert the factor rubric scores into a % for the overall ranking.

I dunno.

Great to see guys hooked on keeper draft rankings though.

 

[NitroF]

Nice exercise!

I think I would prefer decision factors more closely based on hockey skills we all talk about. Say, skating, size, hockey IQ, shot, passing, leadership, etc. The late birthday element is fun and worth a small weighting. I am not sure what you mean by team, and all the players listed have full marks, so I am not sure the value there.

Rather than giving them a % for each decision factor, I might score them out of a possible 6 points, based on a rubric, and then convert the factor rubric scores into a % for the overall ranking.

I dunno.

Great to see guys hooked on keeper draft rankings though.

Thanks for this! The 1-6 rating is a very good suggestion. It should clarify some tight results and make the exercise more useful.



I kind of include hockey skills in the more general Ceiling / Floor / Risk criteria. More offensive skills like skating and shooting will lead to a higher ceiling grade (obviously) or great leadership and a high motor might help mitigate some of the risk or bring up the floor.
I honestly would have a hard time weighting those different skills alone as every skillset combination brings different results and size must be taken into account. i.e. The big center with elite hockey sense won’t need as much speed as the tiny winger to create offense. The possibility of overlooking some flaws is surely more present with my less exhaustive approach though.


As for the Team criteria, it will be evaluated only after the actual draft (our league draft happens a week later) For instance, I’d give a better mark to Parekh in this category if he gets drafted by a team without any clear offensive defenceman in the cupboard than say if he goes to Buffalo and has to fight Dahlin, Power and Byram for opportunities.