Magua's 2019 NHL Draft Preseason Top 31 Write-Up

[Magua]

Last year I wrote a similar but shorter Hlinka write-up for the Flyers board. Thought I’d share this year's version with you (mostly) fine people. It's in the attached PDF, so you don't have to scroll for 40 days and 40 nights! Been writing this and mulling over the rankings for the last month; obviously prospect watching for longer. I feel reasonably comfortable with where I'm at in my evaluating; maybe the most comfortable in August/September since I've been doing this. If you know me -- maybe read my 2018 draft guide back in June? -- then you know I write what I think. Straight up.

I start with a Gretzky-Hlinka report (sorted by country), which covers much of my top 31 (which I roughly tiered this time), along with additional players of note. Then I finished it up with blurbs for the rest of my top 31, by rank, who didn't play at the Hlinka. Obviously things change, and it'll be interesting to check back, but I remember when I did it last year, albeit in shorter form, it was a good resource for me too and a fair amount of my summer thoughts actually strengthened with time. But it’s only September, and surely nothing is definitive (and I tried to make that clear in the write-ups), and we all have much to learn, often from each other.

And I’m always glad to converse!

Download the PDF Here

Click to read more...

 

[lanky]

3 USNTDP players in the top 4 is a little crazy. At least you're not shy about your opinions.

 

[Stizzle]

An excellent writer and judge of prospects. The real deal imo.

 

[Fantomas]

The Magua brand is the only one I trust.

 

[Magua]

I thought I'd post just the rankings for the sake of convenience. But there's 10 pages worth of write-ups too (could I ask a mod to add it to the "Articles" section?). Maybe you'll agree with some stuff, won't agree with other stuff, don't even know yet if you agree or not, but I promise it'll at least get you thinking.

3 USNTDP players in the top 4 is a little crazy.

It is, but even ignoring those three, you then have Caufield (who has top 5-10 talent, though we know he won't go that high) and Boldy (who has top half talent) and York (top 20) and Beecher (late 1st) and Knight (maybe best goalie in the draft), not to mention plenty of other interesting candidates like a very raw towering defender in Alex Vlasic, a speedy undersized puck mover on defense like Marshall Warren, etc. They were the first u17 team in the program's history to win a playoff round. They did it without Hughes, Turcotte, York, Knight, and Caufield.

I don't think having Hughes #1 and Turcotte top 5 is particularly controversial. It's to be expected even. So, really it's just Zegras that I'm especially bullish on. It's just a banner year for the program. But look at least year and the #4, 7, 11, 14, 22 picks were all USDP graduates. 2017 wasn't the best year, but 2016 had 3 of the top 7 picks as past USDP players (5 of top 15), and 2015 boasted 3 of the top 8. It's a major source of talent, and this might be the deepest year yet. Unlike other seasons, everyone is in the same birth year and/or staying with the team in their draft season.

 

[Tryamkin]

Nice write-ups. I'm a huge Zegras fan, but I'm not ballsy enough to put him top 5 yet. I disagree on a few things but I can tell you've watched.

 

[theVladiator]

Great contribution as always, much appreciated. Looking at your glowing description of Honka, you are not worried by his rather underwhelming showing at WJSS. I guess we will see if it meant anything at all, or it was just summer rust.

 

[SI90]

Last year I wrote a similar but shorter Hlinka write-up for the Flyers board. Thought I’d share this year's version with you (mostly) fine people. It's in the attached PDF, so you don't have to scroll for 40 days and 40 nights! Been writing this and mulling over the rankings for the last month; obviously prospect watching for longer. I feel reasonably comfortable with where I'm at in my evaluating; maybe the most comfortable in August/September since I've been doing this. If you know me -- maybe read my 2018 draft guide back in June? -- then you know I write what I think. Straight up.

I start with a Gretzky-Hlinka report (sorted by country), which covers much of my top 31 (which I roughly tiered this time), along with additional players of note. Then I finished it up with blurbs for the rest of my top 31, by rank, who didn't play at the Hlinka. Obviously things change, and it'll be interesting to check back, but I remember when I did it last year, albeit in shorter form, it was a good resource for me too and a fair amount of my summer thoughts actually strengthened with time. But it’s only September, and surely nothing is definitive (and I tried to make that clear in the write-ups), and we all have much to learn, often from each other.

And I’m always glad to converse!

Thanks for the great work. Could you possibly share your 2018 one as well?

 

[lakai17]

nice to see Williams on your list.

 

[Playmaker09]

I get the impression you got from Krebs at the Hlinka, but I think that your concerns can be mostly explained through the context in which he was used.

At 5 on 5 he was used mostly as a link between the D and his wingers (Lafreniere, Dach) who tended to play much further up the ice. He'd usually pick up the puck from deep within his zone and either skate it out or make a stretch pass to a W. The puck would usually make it's way to Dach on the RW who would mostly dictate distribution in the offensive zone or to Lafreniere which would result in a direct shot/scoring chance. With the puck only coming to him from the right side as a LH shot, he didn't really get to showcase one of his strongest qualities IMO which is his scoring ability. I think among the Centers in this class only Hughes and Cozens have more goalscoring upside.

The PP usage was the real headscratcher though. For some reason they put him in front of the net on the 2nd unit with RH Cozens on the right half-wall, rather than have Krebs there and Cozens in the slot. A missed opportunity to showcase offensive skill for both players.

IMO he'd be at the top of the 3rd tier of your list, as he doesn't have that extra gear that those in the 2nd tier behind Hughes have, but he's pretty much a sure bet. His work rate, strength in battles, above average speed and dual threat as a scorer/passer make him as well rounded as you'll see. My comparison for now is something between a Mike Richards and Jaden Schwartz.

I'd also have Cozens in the 2nd tier FWIW.

 

[BKarchitect]

Have seen some of your posts on the Flyers board from time to time and it’s quality stuff.

This looks like the list of a scout early on in the process. Which means A) it’s going to be the independent thinking of one person and B) it’s going to change a lot once the season gets going. And I mean that as a compliment...there is plenty of time for consensus building and scopes will narrow but for now I love something like this that is backed up with really detailed and well-organized thoughts.

 

[FlyTimmo]

Thanks for the great work. Could you possibly share your 2018 one as well?

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/maguas-2018-nhl-draft-guide.2504609/

 

[hizzoner]

Interesting that a 6'2" 190 lb. LW who scored 31 goals as a rookie with Hamilton in the OHL and 6 goals in 5 games with the U16 U.S. team does not get a sniff. Kaliyev turned 17 June 26. He was a rookie with Hamilton playing lesser minutes on a veteran team that went to the Memorial Cup. I am looking forward to seeing how develops this year.

 

[Magua]

Looking at your glowing description of Honka, you are not worried by his rather underwhelming showing at WJSS. I guess we will see if it meant anything at all, or it was just summer rust.

Tbh I only saw Finland once at the WJSS, though I don't put a ton of stock in that showcase. I saw a pre-season game of his too, and it wasn't as impressive as the games from last year. Maybe it is rust. I'm going off last year though. Like I said, he has flaws that will most likely knock him down some spots (certainly in the draft), and I even said that they might bother me more as the season goes along. But he does things offensively that no other defenseman does, to my knowledge, in this draft, and he's an intelligent player as well. So, I valued that uniqueness of commodity.

The players after him are all a lot safer and will likely go higher, and odds are I will move some of them up. But -- and while I like all of them -- I think what many of them bring to the table is more commonplace year-to-year. To give you a further look at my thought process, I originally had him more grouped with Caufield at 12/13 or so as risk/reward picks who I really like. It was something I went back and forth on before saying, "Why not?" It wasn't with absolute confidence.

Interesting that a 6'2" 190 lb. LW who scored 31 goals as a rookie with Hamilton in the OHL and 6 goals in 5 games with the U16 U.S. team does not get a sniff. Kaliyev turned 17 June 26. He was a rookie with Hamilton playing lesser minutes on a veteran team that went to the Memorial Cup. I am looking forward to seeing how develops this year.

I'm looking forward to how he develops too. I know he can shoot a puck and finish near the net. That's not my issue. My negative impressions of him from OHL and Hlinka watches, as I made note, came down to me thinking he was a mediocre skater and a bit of a floater. I'm not sure I love the hockey sense or all-around game. It wasn't accidental that I left him off; it was deliberate. I did the same thing with Simon Holmstrom, for somewhat similar reasons. It's only my take.

 

[Magua]

I get the impression you got from Krebs at the Hlinka, but I think that your concerns can be mostly explained through the context in which he was used.

At 5 on 5 he was used mostly as a link between the D and his wingers (Lafreniere, Dach) who tended to play much further up the ice. He'd usually pick up the puck from deep within his zone and either skate it out or make a stretch pass to a W. The puck would usually make it's way to Dach on the RW who would mostly dictate distribution in the offensive zone or to Lafreniere which would result in a direct shot/scoring chance. With the puck only coming to him from the right side as a LH shot, he didn't really get to showcase one of his strongest qualities IMO which is his scoring ability. I think among the Centers in this class only Hughes and Cozens have more goalscoring upside.

The PP usage was the real headscratcher though. For some reason they put him in front of the net on the 2nd unit with RH Cozens on the right half-wall, rather than have Krebs there and Cozens in the slot. A missed opportunity to showcase offensive skill for both players.

IMO he'd be at the top of the 3rd tier of your list, as he doesn't have that extra gear that those in the 2nd tier behind Hughes have, but he's pretty much a sure bet. His work rate, strength in battles, above average speed and dual threat as a scorer/passer make him as well rounded as you'll see. My comparison for now is something between a Mike Richards and Jaden Schwartz.

I'd also have Cozens in the 2nd tier FWIW.

I'm also basing my opinion on Krebs from some Kootenay games from last season, so it wasn't totally Hlinka based. You're right: he was clearly trying to find a fit with Lafreniere and Dach, who were puck dominant. He had to do some glue work on that line. But I think he's a versatile player, and that's a strength. As for the PP, they did the same thing with Clarke on the right wall as a righty on the other unit, along with the lefties on the left. I don't always get why junior teams especially do this, but each scored their share of snipe goals there, so it was hard to complain from that angle.

With Krebs, I'm not sure he's most projectable at center. I think he's something of a tweener positionally. That played into my ranking. If I thought he was Jaden Schwartz, he'd 100% be in my third tier (Schwartz was a center who ended up at wing too). It's really not a bad comparison stylistically; I'm not even saying he doesn't have that upside -- though Schwartz just had a monster year. Schwartz is a classic "more than the sum of his parts" player. I think Krebs is one too. I write all this crap, but I honest to goodness want to know what I'm missing or might need to reconsider. I don't like speaking in certainties. I do like Krebs, and that's a start. I have little doubt he will be a valuable NHL contributor; it was just a matter of liking others more. I can understand why I was perhaps too harsh and could bump him up in time (though I'd probably give first dibs to bumping up Newhook for similar reasons, if that were the case).

As for Cozens, he was a tough rank. Another player I moved up and down that tier, and where he settled was basically a tie between several players (Bryam, Dach, etc.). But that 2nd tier for me is pretty firm at the moment; like I didn't think about adding anyone to it (I do think Podkolzin is behind the others on that tier though and kind of a bridge). I love their combinations of hockey sense and projectability and dynamic talent in comparison to the others. They all look like real potential 1st liners. I just wish Cozens was a little more skilled as a center. That's it. He's a solid player with great intelligence and physical tools, and he's very very high floor.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

Great article.

 

[theVladiator]

Interesting that a 6'2" 190 lb. LW who scored 31 goals as a rookie with Hamilton in the OHL and 6 goals in 5 games with the U16 U.S. team does not get a sniff. Kaliyev turned 17 June 26. He was a rookie with Hamilton playing lesser minutes on a veteran team that went to the Memorial Cup. I am looking forward to seeing how develops this year.

I find myself agreeing with many of Magua's "against the grain" opinions, and this is one of the examples. I only had seen Kaliyev's highlights from last OHL season, but what Magua wrote based on his OHL Hlinka's impressions rings true. Subpar skating, unwillingness to get involved in the play and hanging around scoring areas instead - all of these are significant hurdles to overcome when transitioning from a good junior player into a good prospect. It would be silly to assume he can't make major improvements this year, but until then it's quite justified to keep him out of the top half of the 1st round, or even 1st round altogether.

 

[Nucker101]

Nice write-ups. I'm a huge Zegras fan, but I'm not ballsy enough to put him top 5 yet. I disagree on a few things but I can tell you've watched.

damn, Tryamkin and Magua in the same hfthread

both of my dads :')