Value of: Mackenzie Blackwood

[billingtons ghost]

Second rounder, 25 year old athletic goalie with size. After starting his career looking like a legit #1 goalie on a truly abyssmal Devils team, he's been consistently inconsistent, an off ice distraction (vax denier), and injury prone (heel, two+ concussions, MCL). He's an RFA next year on a $2.8AAV contract that pays $4.125m of base salary this year. Before last year's disaster was in the conversation to be Team Canada's goalie. Starting this year despite his problems, GM and coach had him penciled in as team's 1A and Vanacek as 1B.

Most on the Devils board want to jettison him because the narrative is that goaltending was the main problem last year according to advanced statistics. When he looks comfortable and confident, he has the potential to steal games. His confidence was destroyed last year as happens on dreadful teams with 10-bell breakdowns (all 7 of our goalies were terrible, but it'd be tough to pin it ALL on them - despite the HDCA and xGA narratives), and it's unclear if Blackwood will ever recover.

The team has improved dramatically defensively adding Marino over Ty Smith (statistically the WORST defenseman last year in the league), getting rid of PK Subban who has been at best a bad third pairing defensman, seeing Siegenthaler make the jump from bottom pairing 7th Dman to legit shutdown guy, getting a healthy Dougie Hamilton, and reducing quixotic Damon Severson's 22+ TOI dramatically by moving him on the third pair and putting him with stay at home Brendan Smith to cover his obvious defensive shortcomings. Lindy's system was simplified after the first several horrendous games this season (Fire Lindy chants) and he's got full understanding and buy-in from the young forwards who have all made a big change in their games to become responsive defensively after a bag skate and the demotion of some players who couldn't hack it (Holtz, Johnsson).

Akira Schmid, AHL goalie, has stepped in and played well in his absense, and Vitek Vanacek has piled up excellent start after excellent start.

It's hard to believe that if this team has a shot at the playoffs, that they'd roll with an AHLer with a short track record - but if Schmid keeps playing like he's playing - it doesn't make sense to send him back to the AHL and put in Blackwood - especially if he's a question mark.

So - at the trade deadline or before - could Blackwood bring back anything of value? I think this is a really interesting question because it is so hard to separate goalie performance from team defensive performance, and we're seeing so many teams with goalie struggles (Markstrom, Demko, Merzlikens) - and so many teams that go out and get a guy who then flops... Grubauer, Campbell, Nedjelkovic etc and especially since goaltending seems to be so historically paper thin around the league.

Could the Devils make a change of scenery swap for another struggling veteran goaltender that could take over the pure backup spot?
Could they package Blackwood with a rental Severson or Graves, or high pick or highly regarded prospect (loaded at LHD, Holtz, etc) to get a scoring forward with size? Or a rental?
Could they get anything more than a third rounder?

Thoughts?

2018-2019	NJD	23	21	10	10	0	0	669	55	2.61	614	.918	2	1,263:52
2019-2020	NJD	47	43	22	14	0	8	1,452	124	2.77	1,328	.915	3	2,684:01
2020-2021	NJD	35	35	14	17	0	4	1,081	106	3.04	975	.902	1	2,090:37
2021-2022	NJD	25	24	9	10	0	4	731	79	3.39	652	.892	2	1,399:03
2022-2023	NJD	7	7	4	2	0	0	142	17	2.79	125	.880	0	366:06
Career	-	137	130	59	53	--	16	4,075	381	2.93	3,694	.907	8	7,803:39

Season

2022-2023	7	7	4	2	0	0	142	17	2.79	.880	0	367
NHL Career	137	130	59	53	--	16	4,075	381	2.93	.907	8	7,804

Nov 3	@ EDM	1	--	--	--	0	18	2	.889	0	28:41
Nov 1	@ VAN	1	1	0	0	0	23	2	.913	0	60:00
Oct 24	vs WSH	1	0	1	0	0	18	5	.722	0	40:00
Oct 22	vs SJS	1	1	0	0	0	22	1	.955	0	59:53
Oct 20	@ NYI	1	1	0	0	0	17	1	.941	0	60:00
Oct 18	vs ANA	1	1	0	0	0	20	2	.900	0	60:00
Oct 13	@ PHI	1	0	1	0	0	24	4	.833	0	57:32

Click to read more...

 

[KingsHockey24]

If we find something to do with Petersen I'd gladly take a shot at Blackwood in LA.

 

[billingtons ghost]

If we find something to do with Petersen I'd gladly take a shot at Blackwood in LA.

What has the knock been on Petersen - besides underwhelming for his newly minted big contract? Has he just given up untimely goals or been injured, or? What do you think his odds are on turning things around?

 

[KingsHockey24]

What has the knock been on Petersen - besides underwhelming for his newly minted big contract? Has he just given up untimely goals or been injured, or? What do you think his odds are on turning things around?

He's just been butt cheeks really.

I could see him turning it around but not here in LA. He needs a fresh start to start gaining some confidence.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

Blackwood
Barabosha
Foote


For

Nedeljkovic
Niederbach

 

[Flyer lurker]

Blackwood now a year plus at under 900 sv% and an rfa who as today is debatable gets offered a deal for 3m for next year. At best a 3.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Blackwood
Barabosha
Foote


For

Nedeljkovic
Niederbach

i think at least 2 of those names you just made up!

 

[Xirik]

Blackwood
Barabosha
Foote


For

Nedeljkovic
Niederbach

I'm not giving up Captain Barabosha or the Black Pearl to ye!

 

[DingDongCharlie]

Net Jersey has improved. Blackwood hasn’t. He’s worth maybe a mid round pick to a club with injury issues.

 

[Classic Devil]

Blackwood
Barabosha
Foote


For

Nedeljkovic
Niederbach

Is Niederbach like Niedermayer?

 

[Forge]

New Jersey keeps him for the year as the backup to VV, someone throws them a third or fourth round pick in the off season and he's moved then.

 

[Smitty426]

If Devs continue the push for the playoffs and Blackwood gets back to the team, let him get some showcase gms. I'd try and trade him to SJ for Reimer. He'd be great in this role. He's a ufa, SJ not going anywhere this year, and maybe Blackwood gets a redo in SJ. They can sell his rights in the summer if it's not the right fit. Money is about the same i believe

Second rounder, 25 year old athletic goalie with size. After starting his career looking like a legit #1 goalie on a truly abyssmal Devils team, he's been consistently inconsistent, an off ice distraction (vax denier), and injury prone (heel, two+ concussions, MCL). He's an RFA next year on a $2.8AAV contract that pays $4.125m of base salary this year. Before last year's disaster was in the conversation to be Team Canada's goalie. Starting this year despite his problems, GM and coach had him penciled in as team's 1A and Vanacek as 1B.

Most on the Devils board want to jettison him because the narrative is that goaltending was the main problem last year according to advanced statistics. When he looks comfortable and confident, he has the potential to steal games. His confidence was destroyed last year as happens on dreadful teams with 10-bell breakdowns (all 7 of our goalies were terrible, but it'd be tough to pin it ALL on them - despite the HDCA and xGA narratives), and it's unclear if Blackwood will ever recover.

The team has improved dramatically defensively adding Marino over Ty Smith (statistically the WORST defenseman last year in the league), getting rid of PK Subban who has been at best a bad third pairing defensman, seeing Siegenthaler make the jump from bottom pairing 7th Dman to legit shutdown guy, getting a healthy Dougie Hamilton, and reducing quixotic Damon Severson's 22+ TOI dramatically by moving him on the third pair and putting him with stay at home Brendan Smith to cover his obvious defensive shortcomings. Lindy's system was simplified after the first several horrendous games this season (Fire Lindy chants) and he's got full understanding and buy-in from the young forwards who have all made a big change in their games to become responsive defensively after a bag skate and the demotion of some players who couldn't hack it (Holtz, Johnsson).

Akira Schmid, AHL goalie, has stepped in and played well in his absense, and Vitek Vanacek has piled up excellent start after excellent start.

It's hard to believe that if this team has a shot at the playoffs, that they'd roll with an AHLer with a short track record - but if Schmid keeps playing like he's playing - it doesn't make sense to send him back to the AHL and put in Blackwood - especially if he's a question mark.

So - at the trade deadline or before - could Blackwood bring back anything of value? I think this is a really interesting question because it is so hard to separate goalie performance from team defensive performance, and we're seeing so many teams with goalie struggles (Markstrom, Demko, Merzlikens) - and so many teams that go out and get a guy who then flops... Grubauer, Campbell, Nedjelkovic etc and especially since goaltending seems to be so historically paper thin around the league.

Could the Devils make a change of scenery swap for another struggling veteran goaltender that could take over the pure backup spot?
Could they package Blackwood with a rental Severson or Graves, or high pick or highly regarded prospect (loaded at LHD, Holtz, etc) to get a scoring forward with size? Or a rental?
Could they get anything more than a third rounder?

Thoughts?

2018-2019	NJD	23	21	10	10	0	0	669	55	2.61	614	.918	2	1,263:52
2019-2020	NJD	47	43	22	14	0	8	1,452	124	2.77	1,328	.915	3	2,684:01
2020-2021	NJD	35	35	14	17	0	4	1,081	106	3.04	975	.902	1	2,090:37
2021-2022	NJD	25	24	9	10	0	4	731	79	3.39	652	.892	2	1,399:03
2022-2023	NJD	7	7	4	2	0	0	142	17	2.79	125	.880	0	366:06
Career	-	137	130	59	53	--	16	4,075	381	2.93	3,694	.907	8	7,803:39

Season

2022-2023	7	7	4	2	0	0	142	17	2.79	.880	0	367
NHL Career	137	130	59	53	--	16	4,075	381	2.93	.907	8	7,804

Nov 3	@ EDM	1	--	--	--	0	18	2	.889	0	28:41
Nov 1	@ VAN	1	1	0	0	0	23	2	.913	0	60:00
Oct 24	vs WSH	1	0	1	0	0	18	5	.722	0	40:00
Oct 22	vs SJS	1	1	0	0	0	22	1	.955	0	59:53
Oct 20	@ NYI	1	1	0	0	0	17	1	.941	0	60:00
Oct 18	vs ANA	1	1	0	0	0	20	2	.900	0	60:00
Oct 13	@ PHI	1	0	1	0	0	24	4	.833	0	57:32

Don't forget 2 rounds of Covid. He got it bad the first time abs gave it to the whole team!

 

[FSL KINGS]

Oh geez, why not?

The King's are full of snipers & all.

 

[Oneiro]

Blackwood trade, if it happens in season, is probably a timing thing, where the return is better than would otherwise be expected because someone is in a jam like we were last year. Otherwise, guessing off-season for something that doesn't matter much.

For me, it's his health which is the reason to move on, particularly if Schmid does enough to have a legitimate claim at the backup role. As with Zacha, sometimes a change is for the best. A fresh start and some new coaching eyes on him might help him out.

 

[AfroThunder396]

It has nothing to do with the vaccine, it has to do with him being an .897 SV% / 3.14 GAA goalie over the past +2 years. He sucks. He had a nice ~25 game stretch after Hines was fired, but the rest of his career outside of that run he has not been an NHL level goalie.

Hell, he was barely an AHL caliber goalie, he had a career SV% of .896 in 88 career AHL games and at one point was demoted to Adirondack of the ECHL. He just isn't a good player.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

I don't think he has any value at all really, and NJ won't move him unless they simply are done with him which means the return will be almost nonexistent. I expect him to come back and try to reestablish his NHL career. NJ will give him a chance to do that in a clear backup role most likely until circumstances change.

The only trade that I could see happening is something like Blackwood for an older G at the deadline if NJ wants to upgrade that backup spot. Something like a Blackwood/Reimer swap. I don't see Blackwood being moved for any G with 2+ years term.

 

[HBK27]

I think he was selfish and misguided. He made a decision that at the time seemed detrimental to the team. Do you think so many young athletes liked the idea of getting vaccinated? They did it because of what it meant to their team and the ability to participate in games in Canada. He decided not to and while we won’t know for sure it sounds like he may have misrepresented his status before training camp.

I think it's selfish that fans were upset with his decision, which should be personal. Despite the other poster's suggestion that this is Monday Morning Quarterbacking, I had no problem with it at the time either, though I certainly think most Devils fans took your position. I wish more young athletes would've pushed back on the policy as well as it was clear they didn't need to get it and even though the risk of side effects was very small it still existed. And I say this as someone that got it myself, not some anti-vaxxer.

As far as being misguided, I'm not sure how that can still be argued? He already had Covid, which gave him better protection than the vaccine. There was very little (if any) benefit for him getting the vaccine, which also still carried some risk. You even admit in your post that so many young athletes "did it because of what it meant to their team and the ability to participate in games in Canada" versus any medical benefit, which should have been the reason to get it.

 

[My3Sons]

I think it's selfish that fans were upset with his decision, which should be personal. Despite the other poster's suggestion that this is Monday Morning Quarterbacking, I had no problem with it at the time either, though I certainly think most Devils fans took your position. I wish more young athletes would've pushed back on the policy as well as it was clear they didn't need to get it and even though the risk of side effects was very small it still existed. And I say this as someone that got it myself, not some anti-vaxxer.

As far as being misguided, I'm not sure how that can still be argued? He already had Covid, which gave him better protection than the vaccine. There was very little (if any) benefit for him getting the vaccine, which also still carried some risk. You even admit in your post that so many young athletes "did it because of what it meant to their team and the ability to participate in games in Canada" versus any medical benefit, which should have been the reason to get it.

We have to get every shot in thr book in my house because one of the boys has a condition that requires immune compromising meds. I’ve had the flu. I still get the flu shot. To me the covid shot is the same thing. That said it’s a team situation and it became a distraction. That was my only real point. Everyone else did it whether they Thought it was medically necessary or not. Ordinarily I wouldn’t care. I wasn’t up in arms about Blackwood’s decision but he got the shot for a reason. Had the discussion played out in the summer and we weren’t privy to it nobody would know and I think that would have been best but my guess is Blackwood showed up and surprised the team. The good news is that it’s just a blip in rear view mirror now.

 

[HBK27]

We have to get every shot in thr book in my house because one of the boys has a condition that requires immune compromising meds. I’ve had the flu. I still get the flu shot. To me the covid shot is the same thing. That said it’s a team situation and it became a distraction. That was my only real point. Everyone else did it whether they Thought it was medically necessary or not. Ordinarily I wouldn’t care. I wasn’t up in arms about Blackwood’s decision but he got the shot for a reason. Had the discussion played out in the summer and we weren’t privy to it nobody would know and I think that would have been best but my guess is Blackwood showed up and surprised the team. The good news is that it’s just a blip in rear view mirror now.

He got the shot because he was coerced into getting it, not for any medical benefit - which I think was wrong to do to players. I agree that he did seem to surprise the team, which surely ruffled a few feathers.

If you want to view the flu shot and covid vaccine as the same thing, that's your right though I respectfully disagree.

As you said, it's a blip in the rear view mirror now and while some fans (not necessarily you) still hold it against him, I don't think management does.

I still think Blackwood should at the very least recover from his injury and get a few starts in NJ before any possible move is made.

 

[Smitty426]

I think it's selfish that fans were upset with his decision, which should be personal. Despite the other poster's suggestion that this is Monday Morning Quarterbacking, I had no problem with it at the time either, though I certainly think most Devils fans took your position. I wish more young athletes would've pushed back on the policy as well as it was clear they didn't need to get it and even though the risk of side effects was very small it still existed. And I say this as someone that got it myself, not some anti-vaxxer.

As far as being misguided, I'm not sure how that can still be argued? He already had Covid, which gave him better protection than the vaccine. There was very little (if any) benefit for him getting the vaccine, which also still carried some risk. You even admit in your post that so many young athletes "did it because of what it meant to their team and the ability to participate in games in Canada" versus any medical benefit, which should have been the reason to get it.

If these are the rules (which they were at the time) and you don't want to adhere to them, then you have the right to quit. Canada played without fans, how much push back would have been needed fro teh league to change? Again, very easy to say all of this now, we were in a health crisis then. He got covid 2x, you have no idea if the vaccine helped him not get a more severe case which would have been worse for him personally, as well as the team. It was the severity of what you got that protected you, not full on kept you from getting it. I think it derailed his career and at a minimum help shine a light on him not being as stellar as he once was. Lets face it .898 and 3.14 ain't gonna cut it anywhere with a decent team, guess we will see.

 

[HBK27]

If these are the rules (which they were at the time) and you don't want to adhere to them, then you have the right to quit. Canada played without fans, how much push back would have been needed fro teh league to change? Again, very easy to say all of this now, we were in a health crisis then. He got covid 2x, you have no idea if the vaccine helped him not get a more severe case which would have been worse for him personally, as well as the team. It was the severity of what you got that protected you, not full on kept you from getting it. I think it derailed his career and at a minimum help shine a light on him not being as stellar as he once was. Lets face it .898 and 3.14 ain't gonna cut it anywhere with a decent team, guess we will see.

Why would he have had to quit when it wasn't a requirement for his employment to get the shot? It just would've prevented him from traveling to Canada, as was the case with Tyler Bertuzzi.

And no, I'm not buying the "we didn't know any better excuse" when many of us did back then. This wasn't the early days of Covid back in 2020 we're talking about but just over a year ago that this issue came up.

The NHL also didn't implement the Covid policy to reduce the severity of illness for their players, but on the false belief that it prevented players from getting/spreading the virus, so that they wouldn't have to postpone/cancel as many games. I also think the NHL, like many other leagues, were publicly pressured into strongly coercing their players to get the shot.

 

[ToDavid]

If Devs continue the push for the playoffs and Blackwood gets back to the team, let him get some showcase gms. I'd try and trade him to SJ for Reimer. He'd be great in this role. He's a ufa, SJ not going anywhere this year, and maybe Blackwood gets a redo in SJ. They can sell his rights in the summer if it's not the right fit. Money is about the same i believe


Don't forget 2 rounds of Covid. He got it bad the first time abs gave it to the whole team!

Blackwood is arguably as good as a UFA as well. I don't think a lot of teams are going to want the qualifying offer.

 

[Smitty426]

Why would he have had to quit when it wasn't a requirement for his employment to get the shot? It just would've prevented him from traveling to Canada, as was the case with Tyler Bertuzzi.

And no, I'm not buying the "we didn't know any better excuse" when many of us did back then. This wasn't the early days of Covid back in 2020 we're talking about but just over a year ago that this issue came up.

The NHL also didn't implement the Covid policy to reduce the severity of illness for their players, but on the false belief that it prevented players from getting/spreading the virus, so that they wouldn't have to postpone/cancel as many games. I also think the NHL, like many other leagues, were publicly pressured into strongly coercing their players to get the shot.

Like i said when I answered this in the beginning- I'm not interested in having a covid discussion (for this exact reason). He's working in NJ, an at will state, you can be fired for chewing gum. If that is the company rule, then he does have to conform or risks being fired. He has the right to quit. I haven't said anything incorrectly. He looks to be very injury-prone which will probably end his tenure in NJ, if he can staty healthy and contribute, great!

 

[HBK27]

Like i said when I answered this in the beginning- I'm not interested in having a covid discussion (for this exact reason). He's working in NJ, an at will state, you can be fired for chewing gum. If that is the company rule, then he does have to conform or risks being fired. He has the right to quit. I haven't said anything incorrectly. He looks to be very injury-prone which will probably end his tenure in NJ, if he can staty healthy and contribute, great!

I'm not forcing you into having any conversation. Blackwood had a contract - doesn't matter that he's in NJ, they couldn't just fire him (or to put it correctly, terminate his contract) without just cause.

Getting the Covid vaccine was also never an NHL rule of company rule, so I have no idea what you're getting at. I guess he had the right to quit, but why the hell would he? He still could've played the season without the vaccine much like Tyler Bertuzzi did.

I agree that he has been injury prone, which is a big concern for the team as is his overall play and lack of consistency. I have no problem with the Devils moving on from Blackwood and I think that's the most likely scenario this offseason, particularly if the team believes that Schmid is ready to be the backup. I'm just not sure I want to see it happen this season. I think you want to have that goaltending depth on hand. Guess it all depends on Schmid's continued play, Blackwood's timeline for a return & how he does in conditioning and NHL starts, plus Bernier's status. Goaltending injuries and needs elsewhere in the NHL could also play a part. Seems like something that's best to be tabled until Blackwood is ready to return.

 

[Zubrus Coffee Maker]

Blackwood has been worse than subpar for a couple of years now, especially with his proclivity for missing time with injury. I see him getting picked up by a team like Columbus or Anaheim in the offseason as a lottery ticket. He has simply not been available enough to be counted on unfortunately. He has obvious upside, but I don't believe thats in New Jersey and I dont think he will be qualified this offseason.

Fingers crossed this is a jinx and this comment will age poorly, but at this time, a team acquiring him would need to have a good 3rd option in net as a safety net.