Speculation: MacArthur Contract Swap

[SenatorsLegionary]

Hate seeing what happened to MacArthur and I love him as a player, but after reading the reactions on the Ottawa board, it got me thinking of the possible situation that MacArthur may hang them up in the interest of life after hockey.

The premise for this thread is based on two assumptions:

1) The worst case scenario unfolds for the Senators as a team; MacArthur decides to call it quits in favor of his health after sustaining 4 concussions in the span of 2 years.

2) The Senators continue to operate under an internal budget ~ 4-5 Million under the cap. If this assumption holds, Ottawa cannot make use of placing MacArthur on LTIR. The more concerning issue here is that there is word that his contract is not insured. This would mean that Ottawa has to pay MacArthur's salary without having him play any games, similar to the situation that Columbus was in with Nathan Horton. This hurts Ottawa as a budget team.

Now, Ottawa is not in a position to trade a prospect in the White/Brown/Chabot tier just to dump a contract. Impact players on ELCs and bridge deals are way too valuable in today's NHL to trade them away without top end talent coming back. So the idea here is to take back a contract comparable to MacArthur's that belongs to either an underperforming player or from a team tight against the cap. The team acquiring MacArthur can then put him on LTIR and use the cap space as they please, similar to the Horton-Clarkson deal we saw not too long ago.

MacArthur has 4 years left @ 4.65M (4.5, 4.75, 4.75, 4.75)

Taking a quick look around the league, these are contracts that could possibly be looked at. All figures come from Cap Friendly.
Format: Years left @ Cap hit; (salary in year 1, salary in year 2, ...)


BUF:
Matt Moulson: 3 @ 5.0M; (5.0, 5.0, 3.0)

CHI:
Marian Hossa: 5 @ 5.275M; (4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0)

DET:
Jonathan Ericsson: 4 @ 4.25M; (4.25, 4.25, 4.25, 4.25)

LAK:
Marian Gaborik: 5 @ 4.875M; (6.075, 5.075, 4.575, 3.175, 3.075)
Dustin Brown: 6 @ 5.875M; (7.0, 6.5, 5.5, 5.5, 4.0, 4.0)

MIN:
Jason Pominville: 3 @ 5.6M; (6.25, 5.0, 5.0)

MTL:
Alexei Emelin: 2 @ 4.1M; (4.2, 4.4)

NYR:
Marc Staal: 5 @ 5.7M; (6.0, 6.0, 6.0, 5.0, 4.2)
Dan Girardi: 4 @ 5.5M; (6.0, 5.0, 4.0, 4.0)

PHI:
Andrew MacDonald: 4 @ 5.0M; (4.75, 5.25, 5.5, 5.75)

TBL:
Ryan Callahan: 4 @ 5.8M; (6.5, 6.5, 4.7, 4.7)
Val Filppula: 2 @ 5.0M; (5.0, 5.0)

VAN:
Luca Sbisa: 2 @ 3.6M; (3.6, 4.0)

WSH:
Brooks Orpik: 3 @ 5.5M; (5.5, 5.5, 4.5)

Feel free to suggest others that I may have missed. I know some players are more unrealistic than others, and there are a few there (Gaborik, Brown, Girardi, Orpik) that I would rather not take on, but I listed them to be thorough.

My favourite options:

Moulson - Both fanbases seemed to like this one when it was discussed briefly in another thread.

Hossa - Probably the best option there considering Hossa's actual salary, but it depends on how badly Chicago values/needs the cap space. Ottawa needs to add for this one to happen.

Callahan - Same term and 3.65M more expensive for Ottawa in total over the 4 years. Brings good energy even though his production isn't what it used to be. Biggest factor here is the NTC, I don't think he would be willing to waive for Ottawa.

Filppula - Contract is only 2 years, but this depends on how much Tampa values the cap space and the extra protection slot for the expansion draft. Could help them with all of the signings they have coming up or may even facilitate a Bishop trade if that's what they decide to pursue.

Would love to hear other opinions to know which of these options are feasible in this hypothetical but possible scenario.

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[Trolfoli]

You'd need an owner willing to spend $20 million (if uninsured) to free up cap space by going into LTIR. That money would be spending over the cap. Owners aren't going to be happy about that.

For similar or less in most cases they could just buyout their players and not deal with the LTIR.

 

[caley]

Might want to hold off on this as MacArthur, so far, might not be as bad as feared.



So, it being concussions, he might wake up worse tomorrow, but, thus far, he might be able to come back from this. Might.

 

[Redline]

Might want to hold off on this as MacArthur, so far, might not be as bad as feared.



So, it being concussions, he might wake up worse tomorrow, but, thus far, he might be able to come back from this. Might.

I now i'd pack it in if i'd made a lifetime supply of money and my longterm health would be in jeopardy.
But that's just me.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Hossa would be the best case scenario but it is not realistic at all.

Unless this is a scenario where Hossa is so in love with being in the NHL that he'll play anywhere for what amounts to almost no money, if CHI trades him, he probably retires. Playing 82 games+ is a lot of work. He is almost 40. Right now he could be motivated by the idea that they are doing something special in Chicago with their "dynasty". That motivation wouldn't be there for him if he is moved to a different team.

 

[voxel]

I'm pretty sure Chicago will be hit with recapture penalties if they trade Hossa and he retires.

 

[Clamshells]

Posted this in the other Mac thread, same theory can apply to other contracts:


Dustin Brown for MacArthur actually makes a ton of sense, if LA was willing to retain the difference in money between Brown and Mac's contracts. (13.75m over 6 years = 2.29m/yr)

LA pays the same money (32.5m) but only takes the retention cap hit (Mac on LTIR)
Ottawa pays the same money (18.75m) but only a cap hit of 3.58m .(5.875 - Retention)

LA wins with the cap space. Ottawa saves money each year for the rest of Mac's contract (only paying 1.71 to Brown in the last two years), and get a player who can step on the ice.

 

[PG Canuck]

Might want to hold off on this as MacArthur, so far, might not be as bad as feared.



So, it being concussions, he might wake up worse tomorrow, but, thus far, he might be able to come back from this. Might.

I think he's really walking the line, if not crossing it, it he doesn't just retire. Even if he's not concussed, I don't think he can risk taking another hit like that when the games actually do matter.

 

[WTG]

McArthor for Sbisa is more then fair.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Lupul for C Mac could work

Yes it increases the sens cap hit but the sens get rid of a 4 year deal while only taking back a 2 year deal and in the long run they save about 4.4 million and for a budget team that's big.

Although I would want a pick or prospect in the deal sense we would be taking on 2 extra years

 

[Eternal Leaf]

Lupul for C Mac could work

Yes it increases the sens cap hit but the sens get rid of a 4 year deal while only taking back a 2 year deal and in the long run they save about 4.4 million and for a budget team that's big.

Although I would want a pick or prospect in the deal sense we would be taking on 2 extra years

Leafs SHOULD at least be a playoff contender by that 3rd-4th season. It would be a massive waste of cap space when we'll actually need it.

Plus, you're helping a divisional rival out of a long-term mess for no reason. A pick/prospect won't mean much considering the kind we'd get.

It's smarter to let Lupul's contract run out now while we're likely not to contend for anything.

 

[Trolfoli]

Posted this in the other Mac thread, same theory can apply to other contracts:


Dustin Brown for MacArthur actually makes a ton of sense, if LA was willing to retain the difference in money between Brown and Mac's contracts. (13.75m over 6 years = 2.29m/yr)

LA pays the same money (32.5m) but only takes the retention cap hit (Mac on LTIR)
Ottawa pays the same money (18.75m) but only a cap hit of 3.58m .(5.875 - Retention)

LA wins with the cap space. Ottawa saves money each year for the rest of Mac's contract (only paying 1.71 to Brown in the last two years), and get a player who can step on the ice.

What's Ott adding? Kings don't need the cap space right now.

 

[Finnish your Czech]

Lupul for C Mac could work

Yes it increases the sens cap hit but the sens get rid of a 4 year deal while only taking back a 2 year deal and in the long run they save about 4.4 million and for a budget team that's big.

Although I would want a pick or prospect in the deal sense we would be taking on 2 extra years

That doesn't make much sense, Leafs already have Horton on LTIR for the next 4 years and can't afford another big money player there for those years.

MacDonald (retained) for MacArthur could work since the Sens could use a #6 dman anyways.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

That doesn't make much sense, Leafs already have Horton on LTIR for the next 4 years and can't afford another big money player there for those years.

MacDonald (retained) for MacArthur could work since the Sens could use a #6 dman anyways.

But for the next 2 seasons we clear almost 500K at that to the 25 million we have coming off the books after this season and we are fine

 

[Finnish your Czech]

But for the next 2 seasons we clear almost 500K at that to the 25 million we have coming off the books after this season and we are fine

I'm sure the Leafs would rather spend that money on talent to improve their roster and pay their young players instead of spending it on Clarke MacArthur and getting like a 2nd back.

 

[Cor]

Greening, Michalek and Lupul

 

[Pyrophorus]

I now i'd pack it in if i'd made a lifetime supply of money and my longterm health would be in jeopardy.
But that's just me.

I'm in full agreement, especially considered the number he has had, in such a short time.

 

[McPhatty00]

Moulson. Mac played in Buffalo and the Pegulas have more than enough $$ to throw around.

 

[Mike Jones]

I'm in full agreement, especially considered the number he has had, in such a short time.

I agree. He's made his money and has his health. Time to open that new chapter and move on.

As Metallica says, time to turn the page.

Or maybe that was Bob Seger...

 

[Micklebot]

Leafs SHOULD at least be a playoff contender by that 3rd-4th season. It would be a massive waste of cap space when we'll actually need it.

Plus, you're helping a divisional rival out of a long-term mess for no reason. A pick/prospect won't mean much considering the kind we'd get.

It's smarter to let Lupul's contract run out now while we're likely not to contend for anything.

Presumably, Ottawa is trading MacArthur because his career is done, and whoever acquires him will just put him on LTIR freeing up the cap hit. There is some negative cap implication there, but minor, so it wouldn't be a massive waste of cap space at all.

That said, I really don't see much of an appeal to Toronto. I guess they'd get a pick or something.

 

[TOGuy14]

MacArthur is owed about $18M over the next four years. If he isn't playing and that contract isn't insured, TOR would want a very nice piece in return for that.

Think of it as essentially us buying your best prospect for $18M

 

[PetterssonSimp]

McArthor for Sbisa is more then fair.

No it really isn't. Sbisa= no trade protection, lower money per year and less year along with at least being a viable candidate fora bottom pairing roster spot. Instead of having a rookie, a KHL dropout, and two waiver fodder material defenceman play the 6-8 spot, at least with Pizza in those are reserved for the 7-9 spots on defence.
Mac won't play again, his 4.25 cap hit is an albotross to a crap team with an old core still shooting for playoff hockey.

No the Sens should be targeting cap teams with at least 1 guy who can play but is so massively overpaid for his services he'd be better used to gain cap space for better younger players. The Flip/Callahan mentions make sense, little over 4 million each year to go over. Just makes the of seasons hard to sign big money contracts.
Hossa would be a no go. Hossa would say no, the Hawks are probably scared of recapture and will probably have someone from the "Family" lead pipe Hossa in the knee after a practise one night over recapture.
Doubt the Kings go for it as they already have too many injury prone high money contracts on their team while still trying to compete.

 

[Micklebot]

No it really isn't. Sbisa= no trade protection, lower money per year and less year along with at least being a viable candidate fora bottom pairing roster spot. Instead of having a rookie, a KHL dropout, and two waiver fodder material defenceman play the 6-8 spot, at least with Pizza in those are reserved for the 7-9 spots on defence.
Mac won't play again, his 4.25 cap hit is an albotross to a crap team with an old core still shooting for playoff hockey.

No the Sens should be targeting cap teams with at least 1 guy who can play but is so massively overpaid for his services he'd be better used to gain cap space for better younger players. The Flip/Callahan mentions make sense, little over 4 million each year to go over. Just makes the of seasons hard to sign big money contracts.
Hossa would be a no go. Hossa would say no, the Hawks are probably scared of recapture and will probably have someone from the "Family" lead pipe Hossa in the knee after a practise one night over recapture.
Doubt the Kings go for it as they already have too many injury prone high money contracts on their team while still trying to compete.

Why would Hossa say no? Everything I've seen indicated he was very fond of his time in Ottawa, and the dummy that traded him in an underhanded way is long gone (and generally vilified here in Ottawa). Ottawa might not be a contender in the sense that Chicago is, but it's certainly looking to compete now as opposed to being a bottom feeder.

I mean, I still don't think it's feasible, but I see no reason why Hossa would be opposed to it.

 

[CDN24]

Why would Hossa say no? Everything I've seen indicated he was very fond of his time in Ottawa, and the dummy that traded him in an underhanded way is long gone (and generally vilified here in Ottawa). Ottawa might not be a contender in the sense that Chicago is, but it's certainly looking to compete now as opposed to being a bottom feeder.

I mean, I still don't think it's feasible, but I see no reason why Hossa would be opposed to it.

The issue would be would the Hawks do it. Is getting Hossa's cap hit off the books worth it. It frees up money to pay AP but

1) Hossa is still an effective player
2) Hawks will want to retain him to avoid cap recapture penalties in those out years. They would much rather pay him $1M to be on LTIR in those out years getting cap relief rather than being hit with a penalty of 4.275M. If they trade him after this year and he plays 2 of the last 4 years of that contract then retires the cap penalty would be 8.55 M in each of the last 2 years to the Hawks. He won't be traded.

 

[Neiler]

I might not be thinking this through completely but if the OP situation is true, I wouldn't mind the Ericsson deal. We need a decent guy on the left side for a couple years and we'll likely lose Methot at the end of the season.

Isn't big E injured too though?