Also, the official stats don't tell the whole story, because for stats logging purposes, a single shot attempt can't be both a save and post hit. Replays show many "pings" are saves first.Right about the time he started turning it aroundin Florida it was getting weird.
Luck is a skill
- Thread starter Bjornar Moxnes
- Start date
I’ve got a friend who I played high school football with, we’ve played on the same hockey team for the last 12 years and are overall pretty competitive people.
He is lucky. So consistently lucky in fact that his “luck” couldn’t be anything less than a skill.
He came golfing a few weeks back for his first time ever, has never held a club. 3rd hole he holes in 1’s. He scores off his head/ass constantly, scores behind the net, stuff like that. Normal people in these situations would be lucky, this guy is skilled in luck.
This man is so consistently lucky, game after game, season after season, year after year - this is not luck.
It is absolutely a skill.
SoundwaveIsCharisma
Moderator
I think luck itself isn't a skill, but putting yourself in a position to make a play is a huge skill. You see it with the really smart players, someone like Pavelski - some would say he's been lucky, but he puts himself in spots where he can take advantage of a random bounce, or a deflection or rebound.
Porter Stoutheart
Seen Stamkos?
- Jun 14, 2017
- 15,857
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hangman005
It's my first day.
mattihp
Registered User
Some people have incredible hand-eye coordination on and/or muscle memory snd can do the right thing again and again and again once they hit it right. I envy them.
Raccoon Jesus
Draft em but don't play em
Justin Williams:
"“Puck luck is for cop-outs,” he said. “I don’t believe in that at all.”
“I’m a true believer in making your own breaks and that you get what you deserve,” he added. “Last night, simply, just wasn’t good enough in every aspect of the game. Therefore, we lost.”"
Mr Game 7 has spoken.
"“Puck luck is for cop-outs,” he said. “I don’t believe in that at all.”
“I’m a true believer in making your own breaks and that you get what you deserve,” he added. “Last night, simply, just wasn’t good enough in every aspect of the game. Therefore, we lost.”"
Mr Game 7 has spoken.
ThrowDemTongs
kid named jeff finger
cptjeff
Reprehensible User
Luck does exist, but most what fans call luck is absolutely based on little skills like positioning for rebounds and anticipating the game. And I have an incredibly deep disdain for stats like PDO that claim to quantify luck- no, it's not luck, it's not guaranteed to regress to a mean- it's just a quantification of how far off your other stats are from reality. You call that luck, in reality it's players having skills you don't know how to quantify.
The best example is framing the pitch in baseball. Catchers did it for a century, claiming that it got umpires to call strikes just a little more often. Stat people said no way and called it a bunch of crap for decades- until somebody found a way to track the effect statistically, and whadda ya know, framing the pitch totally works and has always worked. But people looking at a spreadsheet couldn't imagine that those marginal pitches being called strikes instead of balls was something other than luck. Randomness from the umpire. But it was never luck. It was a discrete skill.
And baseball is shocking easy to quantify compared to hockey.
The best example is framing the pitch in baseball. Catchers did it for a century, claiming that it got umpires to call strikes just a little more often. Stat people said no way and called it a bunch of crap for decades- until somebody found a way to track the effect statistically, and whadda ya know, framing the pitch totally works and has always worked. But people looking at a spreadsheet couldn't imagine that those marginal pitches being called strikes instead of balls was something other than luck. Randomness from the umpire. But it was never luck. It was a discrete skill.
And baseball is shocking easy to quantify compared to hockey.
ManofSteel55
Registered User
Years of Fallout have taught me that, yes, luck is a skill.
Life has taught me that I need to find ways to train up on that skill.
Life has taught me that I need to find ways to train up on that skill.
Video Nasty
Registered User
- Mar 12, 2017
- 5,510
- 9,677
Thomas Jefferson summed it up perfectly:
"I am a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work, the more I have of it."
TheDawnOfANewTage
Dahlin, it’ll all be fine
- Dec 17, 2018
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Eh, I think you’re just using “luck” to describe “hockey sense/iq”, but I get what you mean.
Verhaege is an example- so many GWGs feels lucky, but his coach trusts him enough for key situations, he keeps his cool, puts himself in the right spot- boom, big goals if you do that enough times.
Briere from a previous generation, or even Erod’s play- I have seen that dude be “unlucky” on an awful Buffalo team, now he’s getting “lucky” playing hard in the right spots. So that initial disagreement on terminology makes sense, because it kinda be labeled both. Erod was lucky to get 2 in a game, any player is, but that luck is also the result of putting all the right pieces in exactly the right spots.
Years of life have taught me that fallout skills may be important soon. Awesome reference, not sure how srs ya are but it’s actually kinda related to what I’m saying above.
blundluntman
Registered User
- Jul 30, 2016
- 3,075
- 3,377
You can definitely make your own luck. Good opportunities/tactics come from good positioning. To put it crudely, it's one thing to get shit on by a pigeon by accident, it's another thing to see droplets on the ground and walk into where it's going next.
No chance. He has no clubs, and didn’t know what way to shoot. He thought he was left as he’s a left shot in hockey - he ended up with right clubs and got the hole in 1. No finesse at all lol. He is that guy.
"Chance favors the prepared mind", as one of the best movies of all time, Under Siege 2, taught us.
In other words random chance, which is exactly what luck means in any non-superstitious sense. You went full circle in this post without realizing it lmao.
And Under Siege 1 taught me that a prolonged pausing can can cause serious harm to your VHS tape.
GreeningOil
Yarpmeister
Shanahanigans
Registered User
- Jun 16, 2011
- 2,462
- 2,437
A good example of this thread is the difference between Leafs Hyman and Oilers Hyman. Having watched a lot of both teams, Hyman on the Leafs was often in the right areas but positioned himself so he would hit the goalies pads, or post, or be too close to stuff it in. He's improved on that a lot in his time with the Oilers. It's not all Mcdavid- some slight adjustments in his mechanics around the net allowed him to become a much, much better finisher. He's finishing much better now than when he first got here, although I would bet his chances have stayed relatively similar.
CascadiaPuck
Proud Canucks investor.
I remember when words used to actually mean things.
Edit: still, there is something to the old notion that luck = preparedness meeting opportunity.
Edit: still, there is something to the old notion that luck = preparedness meeting opportunity.
BagHead
Registered User
It's definitely not a skill, and not just by definition (though that, too). Luck is actually a measurable phenomenon, and hockey is one of the most luck-based major sports due to its fast and fluid nature which invites more chaos than many other sports do.
That said, there is a positive association between luck and skill. The more skilled you are, the more chances you you're given to get lucky, both because your coach will put you on the ice more, and because you are able to create "positive" events at a faster rate than those around you. If you get the puck toward the net more, you get more opportunities for one to pinball around just right. This is why Corsi was a big deal for a while there.
Further, as the worst players in a league become better and the distribution curve of skill starts to become more lumped toward a large average group, luck starts to have an outsized effect. If I play 1v1 against a mini-mite I need no luck to beat them every single time. If I play against a high schooler, I need a lot of luck to beat them every single time, even if they're not quite as good as me. (but who am I fooling?)\
Consider that this means that while the best players are the luckiest, they're also the unluckiest. If you shoot more, you're going to hit more pipes, naturally.
So luck is a "skill" if you're referring to the ability to put yourself in the position to receive it. I would argue that that's just skill, though. If that's not skill, we need to redefine skill, and if we do that, we probably need to redefine the next thing, and the next.
That said, there is a positive association between luck and skill. The more skilled you are, the more chances you you're given to get lucky, both because your coach will put you on the ice more, and because you are able to create "positive" events at a faster rate than those around you. If you get the puck toward the net more, you get more opportunities for one to pinball around just right. This is why Corsi was a big deal for a while there.
Further, as the worst players in a league become better and the distribution curve of skill starts to become more lumped toward a large average group, luck starts to have an outsized effect. If I play 1v1 against a mini-mite I need no luck to beat them every single time. If I play against a high schooler, I need a lot of luck to beat them every single time, even if they're not quite as good as me. (but who am I fooling?)\
Consider that this means that while the best players are the luckiest, they're also the unluckiest. If you shoot more, you're going to hit more pipes, naturally.
So luck is a "skill" if you're referring to the ability to put yourself in the position to receive it. I would argue that that's just skill, though. If that's not skill, we need to redefine skill, and if we do that, we probably need to redefine the next thing, and the next.
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