Lopsided Series that somehow made it to game 7 - a study

[seventieslord]

(copied from my thread in the History Of Hockey section and reposted here for fellow Leafs fans)

The Leafs are about to play a game 7 in a series in which they have unequivocally been the better team inspired me to do some research tonight. This is a summary of all the similar series that have taken place in the history of the best-of-7 series.

The TOR-MTL series this year is the 24th instance of a team scoring at least 57% of the series' goals over the first six games, yet miraculously losing three of those six games. The previous 23 times are detailed in the following chart:

Year	Team1	Goals	EN	Shots	Team2	Goals	EN	Shots	Goal%	Shot%	Goal%/Shot%	H/A	G7GF	G7GA	W/L	G7Goal%
2011	BOS	19	0	204	VAN	8	0	209	0.704	0.494	1.425	A	4	0	W	1.000
2009	WSH	17	0	192	NYR	10	0	151	0.630	0.560	1.125	H	2	1	W	0.667
2001	COL	16	0	124	NJD	10	0	152	0.615	0.449	1.370	H	3	1	W	0.750
1976	BOS	23	1	179	LAK	14	0	161	0.611	0.526	1.161	H	3	0	W	1.000
2011	TBY	21	1	157	PIT	14	1	221	0.606	0.415	1.459	A	1	0	W	1.000
2011	CHI	21	0	184	VAN	14	0	180	0.600	0.505	1.187	A	1	2	L	0.333
2003	MIN	22	0	133	VAN	15	0	171	0.595	0.438	1.359	A	4	2	W	0.667
2003	STL	20	1	164	VAN	13	0	151	0.594	0.521	1.140	A	1	4	L	0.200
2009	DET	16	0	179	PIT	12	1	169	0.593	0.514	1.152	H	1	2	L	0.333
2016	ANA	17	1	163	NSH	12	1	173	0.593	0.485	1.222	H	1	2	L	0.333
2021	TOR	17	1	205	MTL	11	0	175	0.593	0.539	1.098
1983	BOS	30	0	158	BUF	21	0	175	0.588	0.474	1.240	H	3	2	W	0.600
1995	CGY	31	1	199	SJS	21	0	160	0.588	0.554	1.061	H	4	5	L	0.444
1988	BOS	24	0	196	NJD	17	0	156	0.585	0.557	1.051	H	6	2	W	0.750
1992	VAN	24	0	196	WPG	17	0	165	0.585	0.543	1.078	H	5	0	W	1.000
2018	BOS	21	0	209	TOR	16	1	173	0.583	0.547	1.066	H	7	4	W	0.636
1981	PHI	25	0	216	CGY	18	0	173	0.581	0.555	1.047	H	1	4	L	0.200
1994	DET	25	0	188	SJS	18	0	136	0.581	0.580	1.002	H	2	3	L	0.400
2016	STL	19	1	181	DAL	13	0	172	0.581	0.513	1.132	A	6	1	W	0.857
2019	BOS	21	3	179	STL	14	1	174	0.581	0.507	1.145	H	1	4	L	0.200
1952	MTL	15	0		BOS	11	0		0.577	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	H	3	1	W	0.750
1993	TOR	16	1	264	STL	11	0	188	0.577	0.584	0.988	H	6	0	W	1.000
1971	CHI	17	1	171	NYR	12	0	204	0.571	0.456	1.253	H	4	2	W	0.667
2001	COL	12	0	160	LAK	9	0	149	0.571	0.518	1.104	H	5	1	W	0.833

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Teams that are dominating in goal differential but tied in the series 3-3, usually smarten up and win game 7... but, not always.

They are 15-8 in game seven, with a 74-43 goal differential (.652 win%, .748 expected). Home ice doesn't seem to enhance the advantage - typically, if you're outplaying the opponent, that continues into game 7, home or away.

In almost all cases, the team dominating on the scoresheet is also the one dominating territorially - shots on goal usually heavily advantage the team that's been doing all the scoring, even though they spent a lot of the series ahead. There have been six notable exceptions, and in each case, goaltending has been a major factor, usually famously so. We have:

- 2011 Thomas vs. Luongo in which the latter was rock solid in his wins and a sieve in his losses,
- 2001 Roy vs. Brodeur where Marty put up an .870 while Roy solidified his Smythe win
- 2011 Roloson versus "between Stanley Cups" MAF
- 2003 Roloson versus Dan Cloutier (enough said)
- 1983 Peeters versus Sauve; I don't believe this was a famous series, but Sauve really shat the bed with an .835 series despite Buffalo quite possibly being better
- and finally, 2016 Andersen vs. Rinne is the strange exception here, in which goaltending was a major factor in the series' first 6 games (Andersen .955 to Rinne's .901) but the trend did not continue in game 7, a win for Rinne.

Interestingly, Vancouver has been the "dominated" team four times in recent history - twice in 2003, when they easily won a game 7 in a series they had been blown out in, then lost a game 7 in what was a more expected result. This team went 7-7 despite being 34-47 in GD.

The other time was when they nearly - but didn't - blow the 2011 first round series to Chicago, but then had a similarly lopsided series in the final against Boston and this time lightning didn't strike for them in game 7. These Canucks were 15-10 despite the 58-69 goal differential!

conclusion as it applies to tomorrow: The Leafs should win tomorrow, fairly easily, but that probably means they will lose because they never do what they should do.

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[BrainyBomber]

Great post

Some very much needed sobriety amidst all the hyperbole and knee-jerking around