Prospect Info: Lias Andersson - Part IV

[cwede]

we just widely disagree. the team is going to lose somebody regardless
(btw I never suggested protecting PDG)
IF FO decides that Lemieux brings aspects that are harder to replace
or that Lias or Gauthier have high ceilings which NYR don't wish to risk to lose, then expose Strome
- there is no certainty Seattle takes Strome, Vegas took Oscar over Fast
- you make the point about return, keep in mind Strome has already far exceeded his cost in Spooner

Your dramatic firing offense comment is re asset management,
often good asset management involves recognizing which assets have already provided much of their value, vs those whose greater contributions are coming soon

I happen to be a Strome supporter,
but also have been thru all the expansion drafts since 1970
these more recent ones are easy, no matter how many guys you expose, you only lose one

my best plan of action is expose many,
your depth and your followup actions will make up for whichever guy you happen to have claimed -

you are assuming Seattle grabs Strome,
they are just as likely to claim a younger guy like Howden, Hajek, Lias or Gauthier

IF Gauthier or Lias show they are fulfilling their draft upside,
i argue protecting Strome over them is not such an easy decision

 

[haohmaru]

^ If Strome is exposed, that's who they are taking.

 

[cwede]

and btw the "lose him for nothing" argument is a false one
NYR (every team) is obligated and certain to contribute one player
IF Strome is exposed and picked, it satisfies the org's obligation

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

and btw the "lose him for nothing" argument is a false one
NYR (every team) is obligated and certain to contribute one player
IF Strome is exposed and picked, it satisfies the org's obligation

This is an important point. You're not going to somehow finagle them into taking Boo Nieves. Someone of some kind of value will be going.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

This is an important point. You're not going to somehow finagle them into taking Boo Nieves. Someone of some kind of value will be going.

In 2017 we lost Lindberg while others had to bend over backwards to keep their players. Minnesota, Florida and Anaheim gave away Tuch, Theodore and Marchessault

If we lose Strome in 2021, that's still nowhere close to the pain the expansion draft will inflict on others.

 

[kovazub94]

if re-signed, i will be totally fine if Strome is exposed, while Gauth/Lias/Lemieux protected instead,
It may be that Strome's greatest value to NYR is just continuity from '19-20 into '20-21
if claimed it relieves Cap pressure, and Gorton will figure out next steps
And you just never can reliably predict which 1 player expansion team will pick

If Strome continues his fairy tale story after signing a contract to take him to UFA in a year or two, what would be his trade value as a rental? Probably something like what Hayes brought back - a 1st rounder and a prospect... like Lemieux....

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

In 2017 we lost Lindberg while others had to bend over backwards to keep their players. Minnesota, Florida and Anaheim gave away Tuch, Theodore and Marchessault

If we lose Strome in 2021, that's still nowhere close to the pain the expansion draft will inflict on others.

And some people here were pissed we lost Lindberg

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

And some people here were pissed we lost Lindberg

Remember how he started his NHL career with 3 goals in 3 games or something and people here called him "Calderberg"? Good times

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

If Strome continues his fairy tale story after signing a contract to take him to UFA in a year or two, what would be his trade value as a rental? Probably something like what Hayes brought back - a 1st rounder and a prospect... like Lemieux....

Of course. And if that happens, you recoup the return and expose someone else.

But if he regresses somewhat to the mean and scores, say, 55-58 points (while playing with Panarin) with a new contract coming due in a year, and at the same time Lemieux stabilizes his game, Gauthier establishes himself, and/or Andersson rehabilitates his value in the SHL...

Suddenly the question of which forwards to expose is not the slam dunk it might seem right now. Not saying it will happen, but @cwede is right to point out that it's a possibility.

 

[nyr2k2]

And some people here were pissed we lost Lindberg

IIRC, the Lindberg thing was more to do with losing Lindberg instead of Fast. Some people valued the center more than the wing, and they were both basically equally productive and similar players to that point in their careers.

Either way, once the dust settled and it became clear what everyone else lost, or what everyone else gave up to not lose a particular player, I don't really remember anyone being too upset at losing Lindberg. I think it was pretty clear even then we made out like gangbusters.

 

[kovazub94]

Of course. And if that happens, you recoup the return and expose someone else.

But if he regresses somewhat to the mean and scores, say, 55-58 points (while playing with Panarin) with a new contract coming due in a year, and at the same time Lemieux stabilizes his game, Gauthier establishes himself, and/or Andersson rehabilitates his value in the SHL...

Suddenly the question of which forwards to expose is not the slam dunk it might seem right now. Not saying it will happen, but @cwede is right to point out that it's a possibility.

It’s definitely an interesting conversation. Even if Strome is down to 55-58 points in your example, his return still would be a 1st and a prospect.

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

It’s definitely an interesting conversation. Even if Strome is down to 55-58 points in your example, his return still would be a 1st and a prospect.

Not so sure that's true in a flat cap world if he's a year from UFA.

Not so sure it's not true either.

Definitely interesting, as you say.

 

[Ghost of jas]

IIRC, the Lindberg thing was more to do with losing Lindberg instead of Fast. Some people valued the center more than the wing, and they were both basically equally productive and similar players to that point in their careers.

Either way, once the dust settled and it became clear what everyone else lost, or what everyone else gave up to not lose a particular player, I don't really remember anyone being too upset at losing Lindberg. I think it was pretty clear even then we made out like gangbusters.

Remember, there were people who wanted Nash exposed, which would have meant no Strome, Lindgren or Miller.

 

[haohmaru]

and btw the "lose him for nothing" argument is a false one
NYR (every team) is obligated and certain to contribute one player
IF Strome is exposed and picked, it satisfies the org's obligation

If you solely look at it from an asset point of view then Strome is the guy you either trade or sign and protect. The other guys on your list don't have the value that Strome does - in the NYR lineup or the trading/acquiring asset side of things. He's not the guy to expose.

If they take a flier on Andersson or Gauthier and it pans out, good on them. Today, however, those aren't the guys to protect.

 

[cwede]

If you solely look at it from an asset point of view then Strome is the guy you either trade or sign and protect. The other guys on your list don't have the value that Strome does - in the NYR lineup or the trading/acquiring asset side of things. He's not the guy to expose.

If they take a flier on Andersson or Gauthier and it pans out, good on them. Today, however, those aren't the guys to protect.

Agree to disagree,
not against a trade,
but a year from now,
I dont think there is a no-doubt-about-it decision whether or not NYR expose their 7th best vet F to Seattle

 

[Sayba]

It’d be great if lias turns a corner and plays a big role for this team.

his brand of game is exactly what we need.

What is his brand?

 

[haohmaru]

Agree to disagree,
not against a trade,
but a year from now,
I dont think there is a no-doubt-about-it decision whether or not NYR expose their 7th best vet F to Seattle

Well, I agree that there isn't a "no-doubt-about-it" scenario because we've yet to sign Strome or see what the 20-21 is going to look like for the league, or for him, and the draft is almost a year away. Further, we don't know what the team is going to look like either.

As it stands TODAY, however, it is a no-brainer if the draft were in a week.

 

[cwede]

If the draft were in a week, Chytil, Howden, Lias, Hajek would be exempt.
I like Strome, grateful for what he's done, exceeded hopes of many
I just cant see him as essential to protect.
The league is overflowing w 'middle 6 forwards', and flat Cap will increase available supply...

 

[Leetch3]

all I can say is that I'll be thrilled if gauthier, lemieux and howden improve enough next year to warrant the decision of moving/exposing others to protect them. but right now they are 4th liners and you expose the group of 4th liners and lose 1 over losing your 2C to protect 4th liners

 

[Raspewtin]

IIRC, the Lindberg thing was more to do with losing Lindberg instead of Fast. Some people valued the center more than the wing, and they were both basically equally productive and similar players to that point in their careers.

Either way, once the dust settled and it became clear what everyone else lost, or what everyone else gave up to not lose a particular player, I don't really remember anyone being too upset at losing Lindberg. I think it was pretty clear even then we made out like gangbusters.

very true and we also didn’t have to give up outstanding players or prospects to protect mediocre or bad ones like Florida, Minnesota, and Anaheim

 

[kovazub94]

Agree to disagree,
not against a trade,
but a year from now,
I dont think there is a no-doubt-about-it decision whether or not NYR expose their 7th best vet F to Seattle

Yup, that’s the key. Claiming NOW who you’d protect a year from now is a folly. Essentially two of Strome, Gauthier, Howden, Andersson and Lemieux will be protected and only one will be lost. In the famous words of one Mr. Drury “it won’t spoil my Christmas “.

 

[kovazub94]

all I can say is that I'll be thrilled if gauthier, lemieux and howden improve enough next year to warrant the decision of moving/exposing others to protect them. but right now they are 4th liners and you expose the group of 4th liners and lose 1 over losing your 2C to protect 4th liners

This

 

[cwede]

very true and we also didn’t have to give up outstanding players or prospects to protect mediocre or bad ones like Florida, Minnesota, and Anaheim

i am even more firm that NYR take no such exceptional steps, to control or 'game' expansion draft, than about exposing #16

Gonna lose 1 guy, no matter what, don't make it worse...

 

[WojtekWolski86]

IIRC, the Lindberg thing was more to do with losing Lindberg instead of Fast. Some people valued the center more than the wing, and they were both basically equally productive and similar players to that point in their careers.

Either way, once the dust settled and it became clear what everyone else lost, or what everyone else gave up to not lose a particular player, I don't really remember anyone being too upset at losing Lindberg. I think it was pretty clear even then we made out like gangbusters.

Once Florida lost 2 of their top players and others lost considerable draft capital, losing a 4th liner didnt seem so bad.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

we just widely disagree. the team is going to lose somebody regardless
(btw I never suggested protecting PDG)
IF FO decides that Lemieux brings aspects that are harder to replace
or that Lias or Gauthier have high ceilings which NYR don't wish to risk to lose, then expose Strome
- there is no certainty Seattle takes Strome, Vegas took Oscar over Fast
- you make the point about return, keep in mind Strome has already far exceeded his cost in Spooner

Your dramatic firing offense comment is re asset management,
often good asset management involves recognizing which assets have already provided much of their value, vs those whose greater contributions are coming soon

I happen to be a Strome supporter,
but also have been thru all the expansion drafts since 1970
these more recent ones are easy, no matter how many guys you expose, you only lose one

my best plan of action is expose many,
your depth and your followup actions will make up for whichever guy you happen to have claimed -

you are assuming Seattle grabs Strome,
they are just as likely to claim a younger guy like Howden, Hajek, Lias or Gauthier

IF Gauthier or Lias show they are fulfilling their draft upside,
i argue protecting Strome over them is not such an easy decision

If you dont protect him you have to trade him, it's silly to just let him go for nothing, thats poor asset management, he has value whether he is with this team or if he is traded for a young player, players or picks.