OT: Lets talk about stocks (Part 3)

[Lshap]

Last thread.

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[LyricalLyricist]

Oil has been treating me well over course of pandemic. Anyone else in companies like Suncor?

 

[montreal]

Don’t follow the other guys, but Wood is calling for massive growth. She thinks her fund will return 40% over the next 5 years. Which I find doubtful, she owns some shitty companies.

So not sure where you got a 90% drop which no one with any credibility would call.

Despite the plunge, Cathie Wood sees her plan returning 40% per year | Financial Post

She has some real good companies as well. CRSP, EXAS, NTLA, FATE, IOVA

I've done well with all of them at one point or the other as I mainly invest in bio techs.

Oil has been treating me well over course of pandemic. Anyone else in companies like Suncor?

SLB is a real good company to hold for the long term. I have OXY, COP as well.

 

[japhi]

Oil has been treating me well over course of pandemic. Anyone else in companies like Suncor?

Yes, I have SU, ENB and KEY. My SU is up 125% and I think still has room to run. Oil is def not dead

 

[japhi]

Couldn’t resist, bought more SHOP. They own a significant stake in Stripe, which will be a 50- 100b IPO. Lots of upside IMO, but risky to go in on tech so who knows

 

[luthar]

In the last thread, there was discussion on investing in the FTQ / CSN funds. From my understanding (max contribution is 5k), the big advantage is to get the 30% tax break. Over a 5+ year horizon, I am under the impression that these funds perform lower than the corresponding indexes and the 30% tax break will not be enough to bridge the gap and you will lose.

Investing from 60-65 in those funds are a solid way to get good yield with the tax break.

Is there something I am missing?

 

[Stanley Cup]

In the last thread, there was discussion on investing in the FTQ / CSN funds. From my understanding (max contribution is 5k), the big advantage is to get the 30% tax break. Over a 5+ year horizon, I am under the impression that these funds perform lower than the corresponding indexes and the 30% tax break will not be enough to bridge the gap and you will lose.

Investing from 60-65 in those funds are a solid way to get good yield with the tax break.

Is there something I am missing?

Generally speaking, you're right. However FTQ and CSN funds are closer to venture capital than index funds and so they cannot really be compared. They tend to be less volatile, especially during recessions as they are not that correlated with markets. Also you're usually able to get your tax returns immediately if your contribution is split on your pays. So it's not all black and white, but yes they tend to generate a lesser return the earlier you contribute to them.

 

[HuGort]

Tesla with a late drop.

 

[QuebecPride]

In the last thread, there was discussion on investing in the FTQ / CSN funds. From my understanding (max contribution is 5k), the big advantage is to get the 30% tax break. Over a 5+ year horizon, I am under the impression that these funds perform lower than the corresponding indexes and the 30% tax break will not be enough to bridge the gap and you will lose.

Investing from 60-65 in those funds are a solid way to get good yield with the tax break.

Is there something I am missing?

They're great for people at the end of their career.

Personally I'm 30 and I invest in the two. The tax breaks are nice, but you're right that over 35 years that's not even 1% per year. I mostly invest in them because they give me exposure to private equity. A lot of companies don't go 'public' in the stock market until way later in their development, and most of the cash is usually made before the company goes public. That's why I want in on that juicy private market return.

Personnally, my expected return for FTQ is 5% and for CSN it's 4%, if you add the tax break it's closer to 6% and 5%.

We're really lucky in this province to be able to get exposure to private equity. In the US, you have to be a Multi-millionaire. You invest alongside the biggest names in Finance, Blackrock, Blackstone, CDPQ, CPP, Teacher's, CALPERS, etc.

IMO, the first 5000$ RRSP (REER) you invest yearly should go to FTQ/CSN, then you go into your discount brokerage account.

For those that are maxed out in RRSP, go take a look at Capital Régional Coopératif Desjardins, they also do private equity/venture capital. You get a 30% tax break on 3K per year.

TLRD, you invest in FTQ/CSN for diversification purposes and exposure to private markets in smaller companies.

 

[japhi]

Market took a dump today. Totally oversold IMO.

 

[LyricalLyricist]

Yes, I have SU, ENB and KEY. My SU is up 125% and I think still has room to run. Oil is def not dead

Damn, you bought when it hit rock bottom.

I tend to stick to canadian stocks for the moment and when Air Canada and Suncor were both low I saw AC remerging and chose to invest there. Once they both hit ~21$ i switched over the suncor and the combined profit has been excellent.

I am hoping Suncor exceeds 40$ by EOY. Its looking to be VERY doable especially with oil prices staying high.

 

[HuGort]

Could this be good time to buy into Facebook?

Debt free with $14 EPS. Trading for 23 times earnings Metaverse is set up take off. FB is buying back 50 billion in shares.

 

[HuGort]

Couldn’t resist, bought more SHOP. They own a significant stake in Stripe, which will be a 50- 100b IPO. Lots of upside IMO, but risky to go in on tech so who knows

SHOP had quite a dip yesterday. Rocky year in '21.

 

[japhi]

Damn, you bought when it hit rock bottom.

I tend to stick to canadian stocks for the moment and when Air Canada and Suncor were both low I saw AC remerging and chose to invest there. Once they both hit ~21$ i switched over the suncor and the combined profit has been excellent.

I am hoping Suncor exceeds 40$ by EOY. Its looking to be VERY doable especially with oil prices staying high.

Yup, got lucky on SU for sure. I think it has lots of room to run

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

SHOP had quite a dip yesterday. Rocky year in '21.

It did the same thing about a year ago.

I’m glad I mostly divested myself from the tech stocks. Sold on a high. At some point I’m going to jump back in but I think things will get worse before they get better.

 

[canucklover123]

I’m thinking of jumping into ARKK and NVDA what y’all think.

ARKK taking a beating but I think the recovery will be glorious long term

 

[pepperMonkey]

I’m thinking of jumping into ARKK and NVDA what y’all think.

ARKK taking a beating but I think the recovery will be glorious long term

I'll probably stay away from ARKK for now. Growth stocks are still going to be rocky I would expect, especially with rates still about to go up. Meaning, ARKK will probably still go down. If anything, DCA into ARKK...though, personally, I would just stay away until growth stops getting pummelled...which may not happen for quite some time still.

NVDA, well, is in a semiconductor supercycle so I wouldn't mind sinking some $$$ into NVDA.

 

[japhi]

I’m thinking of jumping into ARKK and NVDA what y’all think.

ARKK taking a beating but I think the recovery will be glorious long term

Disagree, I think ARKK had a great run and will now underperform dramatically. That fund has become a meme and will return like one going forward. There is a reason no one had heard of Cathie Wood prior to
2020, she got lucky and IMO she doesn’t have the chops to manage through a down cycle and deliver long term results. Everyone was a hero Spring 2020 till fall 2021.

If you want to buy the tech dip I’d suggest buying a Nasdaq etf

 

[HuGort]

I think Stock Market will dip between 15-20% at some point this year. Inflation at 7% for December the Feds have no choice but to raise interest rates. Look back on last four rate hikes the S&P dropped an average of 10% each time. Should be looking at three rate hikes, at least in 2022.

But otherwise the market is strong. Jobs, real estate, earnings. I can't see it going into a bear market. More than likely Market will come storming back in late '22 or early '23.

My banks stocks been doing good since early fall. Royal Bank up 20% plus yield. TD up more than that. Which is good for banks in 4 months. Once it passes ex-date, I am going to sell them and hold the cash. I think Tesla will triple in next 4 years. When the dip hits I am going to put the cash in Tesla. I hope to get $230,000 all together. A 300% return in 4 years is a 75% annual return. Not bad on $230,000. Average $172,000 a year.

 

[japhi]

I’m not as bullish on Tesla as you. They would have to increase deliveries 4-10x to justify a 3t market cap.

 

[the paisanos guy]

I think Stock Market will dip between 15-20% at some point this year. Inflation at 7% for December the Feds have no choice but to raise interest rates. Look back on last four rate hikes the S&P dropped an average of 10% each time. Should be looking at three rate hikes, at least in 2022.

But otherwise the market is strong. Jobs, real estate, earnings. I can't see it going into a bear market. More than likely Market will come storming back in late '22 or early '23.

My banks stocks been doing good since early fall. Royal Bank up 20% plus yield. TD up more than that. Which is good for banks in 4 months. Once it passes ex-date, I am going to sell them and hold the cash. I think Tesla will triple in next 4 years. When the dip hits I am going to put the cash in Tesla. I hope to get $230,000 all together. A 300% return in 4 years is a 75% annual return. Not bad on $230,000. Average $172,000 a year.

Tesla tripling would earn you a 200% return, not 300%. $115,000 a year over 4 years

 

[HuGort]

Tesla tripling would earn you a 200% return, not 300%. $115,000 a year over 4 years

Sorry, still good return.

Looks like many did same as me. Dumped stocks before raise of interest rates. For last 3 weeks S&P, DOW, NASDAQ all down. NASDAQ down the most. I am holding cash. Will buy back in but imagine be summer at earliest. Maybe even fall or into winter '22.

Now, I am hoping for a big dip. Think S&P will go under $4,000? Be close to 20% dip from its high of near $4,800.

 

[QuebecPride]

Sorry, still good return.

Looks like many did same as me. Dumped stocks before raise of interest rates. For last 3 weeks S&P, DOW, NASDAQ all down. NASDAQ down the most. I am holding cash. Will buy back in but imagine be summer at earliest. Maybe even fall or into winter '22.

Now, I am hoping for a big dip. Think S&P will go under $4,000? Be close to 20% dip from its high of near $4,800.

What if there is no big dip, and then instead of going down 20% the S&P goes up 20%. What will you do?

 

[montreal]

I might pick up some NVDA soon, likely wait another week to see how the market is going, and to see if it drops more. I'm still pissed at not picking it up before, it was around 110 or so and I was saying if it drops into the 90's I'll buy and instead it went the other way. They are sitting on almost 20B in cash, at this price that's attractive but if the Fed is going to raise rates this year it's likely going to be rough couple of months.

 

[BehindTheTimes]

What if there is no big dip, and then instead of going down 20% the S&P goes up 20%. What will you do?

He won't have to worry about that imo.