Post-Game Talk: Leafs win in SO 4-3 against VGK

[zeke]

All good.

I'll just leave you with the old school approach then:

Average shots/game with Marner in the lineup:
Leafs 34
Opposition: 30

Average shots/game without Marner in the lineup:
Leafs 32
Opposition: 36

It's a little old-fashioned I guess but the turnaround sure backs up all the modern metrics does it not? Modern shot quality metrics make it look even worse (as the Leafs were stymied by good goaltending more with Marner in the lineup against the Rangers for example). I concede it's still a small sample size but I'm hoping we dont get any more of it myself.

As long as Dubas doesn't mess with things too much, I think we had something really special going on with the team he built (outside of Ritchie but who knows? maybe he'll play his way back into the lineup). Campbell is the most impressive thing to me. Finally found a guy capable of carrying the team in the playoffs basically for free. Just need him to make the big saves in the playoffs this year like every winning team has in crunch time.

I'm with you - Mitch is awesome and we definitely miss him.

BUT...it's interesting to see how exactly we miss him. we're getting a decent PK sample now of us being worse without him for example - though obviously too small a sample.

And then at even strength, look at last night's xGF%

Bunting 74.5% --- Matthews 80.6% --- Kase 81.1%
Kerfoot 29.9% ---- Tavares 40.1% ---- Nylander 30.4%
Mikheyev 42.8% --- Kampf 41.9% --- Simmonds 43.9%
Ritchie 8.6% ------ Spezza 5.6% ------ Clifford 17.6%


So the 2nd line had a rough game (tavares was awful), and the 3rd line wasn't great (though with their dzone starts that's still not bad).

But the highlights here sure seem to be - that Matthews line kicks ass no matter what (and he had a whole bunch of great chacnes other than his goal), while the decision to use Ritchie and Clifford as our fill-ins is, UNSURPRISINGLY, a disaster.

So while we obviously miss a great player like Mitchy, there's still a good discussion to be had as to where we might fit him in best.

 

[Zybalto]

I'm with you - Mitch is awesome and we definitely miss him.

BUT...it's interesting to see how exactly we miss him. we're getting a decent PK sample now of us being worse without him for example - though obviously too small a sample.

And then at even strength, look at last night's xGF%

Bunting 74.5% --- Matthews 80.6% --- Kase 81.1%
Kerfoot 29.9% ---- Tavares 40.1% ---- Nylander 30.4%
Mikheyev 42.8% --- Kampf 41.9% --- Simmonds 43.9%
Ritchie 8.6% ------ Spezza 5.6% ------ Clifford 17.6%


So the 2nd line had a rough game (tavares was awful), and the 3rd line wasn't great (though with their dzone starts that's still not bad).

But the highlights here sure seem to be - that Matthews line kicks ass no matter what (and he had a whole bunch of great chacnes other than his goal), while the decision to use Ritchie and Clifford as our fill-ins is, UNSURPRISINGLY, a disaster.

So while we obviously miss a great player like Mitchy, there's still a good discussion to be had as to where we might fit him in best.

As much as I appreciate a good devils advocate post,

I'll just throw down the numbers for the Bunting/Matthews/Marner line for the 15 games (pretty busy schedule) played the month before Marner was injured:

xGF%: 74.09
GF%: 78.30
GF/60: 6.53
GA/60: 1.81

One of the best months by a line we'll see this year in the NHL.

I'd like to see more so lets get everyone better and certainly put that line back together again for an extended period of time.....that would be the best way forward no?

 

[as Pure as Evil]

I wonder if its just a coincidence that we start getting penaties the minute the odds of a comeback becomes a long shot..

 

[therealkoho]

Misleading small sample size. Marner's a very good player but he's not the difference between us being the best team in the league and being below average, there's just no way that makes sense.

numbers really don't care what you, I or the dog down the street think, they just are.

 

[Gary Nylund]

As much as I appreciate a good devils advocate post,

I'll just throw down the numbers for the Bunting/Matthews/Marner line for the 15 games (pretty busy schedule) played the month before Marner was injured:

xGF%: 74.09
GF%: 78.30
GF/60: 6.53
GA/60: 1.81

One of the best months by a line we'll see this year in the NHL.

I'd like to see more so lets get everyone better and certainly put that line back together again for an extended period of time.....that would be the best way forward no?

I don't put as much stock in the numbers as you do but I agree that keeping that line together is "best way forward", in fact I can't even imagine what the argument against that could possibly be.

numbers really don't care what you, I or the dog down the street think, they just are.

Yup. My favourite is when people say the numbers are never wrong - of course they're not, numbers are never wrong and they're also never right, they're just ... numbers.

 

[TGB]

I like how Mik is scoring even on low, short range chances.

It may not have been the best game, but it's actually tough games like this that help shake the rust off the fastest. It's actually encouraging to see the Leafs get outplayed by Colorado and Vegas yet STILL WIN.

numbers really don't care what you, I or the dog down the street think, they just are.

It's not that they're wrong, but they're routinely misinterpreted and/or used as a crutch to support what is usually an entirely subjective viewpoint rather than analyzed in an unbiased vacuum.

 

[ponder]

you can no longer call a timeout after icing's

Oh shit, you’re right! Don’t know how I missed this rule change.