Post-Game Talk: Leafs win in SO 4-3 against VGK

[666]

Just finished watching the last half and while I know everyone around here loves Nylander and maybe it was just a bad game but he is Kessel bad in his own end. Lazy, doesn't use his speed and avoids contact like it's a virus.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Well, it's nice to hear you jump right out and clarify that. Didn't mean to disappoint.

It's just kind of crazy how many people believe it is all (and not getting much pushback either). I just made the connection as the same people who are calling for something like that are almost always the ones to downplay just how much worse the team is/looks/feels without Marner in the lineup.

Good news is Campbell has been a rock and the team is getting timely (and a few lucky) goals so it hasnt cost us too much in the standings.

TBH I haven't noticed people saying leave Kase on the top line, if I had noticed I would have said something - really bad idea IMO.

The team is worse without Marner, no doubt about that. Your numbers that show we go from being #1 to being below average though ... to me it's another example of those numbers not being reliable for assessing individual players. We've talked about this before, you know my stance on this but just thought I'd restate it for the record. I wish I had bookmarked the post that explained at length why these numbers are so bad for player evaluation bit unfortunately I didn't. I think you'd find it very interesting, who knows, you might even agree as it was a very well written post but whatever.

Let's end on a positive note and just say that we agree that Marner is an excellent player. I really hope Marner plays the best hockey of his life in the playoffs!

 

[Mess]

Goals Saved Above Expected

1. Andersen +16.57
2. Shesterkin +16.50
3. Saros +14.20
4. Campbell +13.80
5. Jerry +13.40

[He Does Not]

NHL Goalie Statistics

Name	Games Played	Goals Against	Expected Goals Against	Goals Saved Above Expected	Goals Saved Above Expected Per 60	Save % on Unblocked Shots	xSave % on Unblocked Shots	Save % Above Expected	Save % on Shots On Goal	GAA	xGAA	GAA Better Than Expected	Wins Above Replacement	Icetime (Minutes)	Rebounds Per Save	xRebounds Per Save	Rebounds Above Expected	Puck Freezes	Expected Puck Freeze	Puck Freezes Above Expected	Puck Freezes Above Expected Per Shot On Goal	Goals Against	Saves on Shots On Goal	Saves on Unblocked Shot Attempts	% of Shot Attempts Blocked By Teammates	% of Unblocked Shot Attempts Against On Goal	Expected % of Unblocked Shot Attempts Against On Goal	On Goal % Above Expected	Low Danger Unblocked Shot Attempt Save %	xLow Danger Unblocked Shot Attempt Save %	Low Danger Unblocked Shot Attempt Save% Above Expected	Medium Danger Unblocked Shot Attempt Save %	xMedium Danger Unblocked Shot Attempt Save %	Medium Danger Unblocked Shot AttemptSave % Above Expected	High Danger Unblocked Shot Attempt Save %	xHigh Danger Unblocked Shot Attempt Save %	High Danger Unblocked Shot Attempt Save % Above Expected
Jack Campbell [TBODY] [/TBODY]	27	53	71.02	18.0	0.687	0.963	0.950	0.013	0.935	2.02	2.71	0.69	3.00	1572	0.038	0.041	-0.003	218	183.2	34.8	0.04	53	764	1373	17.81%	57.29%	56.56%	0.74%	0.981	0.970	0.011	0.887	0.880	0.007	0.817	0.694	0.123
Igor Shesterkin [TBODY] [/TBODY]	21	42	59.37	17.4	0.866	0.966	0.952	0.014	0.936	2.09	2.95	0.86	2.89	1206	0.039	0.04	-0.001	141	148.68	-7.68	-0.01	42	613	1197	19.86%	52.87%	53.88%	-1.02%	0.978	0.971	0.007	0.919	0.878	0.041	0.776	0.689	0.087
Juuse Saros [TBODY] [/TBODY]	30	67	84.21	17.2	0.583	0.959	0.948	0.011	0.927	2.27	2.85	0.58	2.87	1769	0.034	0.042	-0.008	235	198.21	36.79	0.04	67	846	1567	18.71%	55.88%	55.07%	0.8%	0.973	0.969	0.004	0.904	0.881	0.023	0.759	0.664	0.096
Jonathan Quick [TBODY] [/TBODY]	22	52	68.38	16.4	0.757	0.955	0.941	0.014	0.921	2.40	3.15	0.76	2.73	1300	0.058	0.044	0.014	126	141.48	-15.48	-0.02	52	606	1107	18.89%	56.77%	56.77%	0%	0.982	0.970	0.012	0.888	0.878	0.009	0.775	0.672	0.103
Sergei Bobrovsky [TBODY] [/TBODY]	25	61	76.81	15.8	0.660	0.951	0.938	0.013	0.919	2.55	3.21	0.66	2.64	1436	0.065	0.043	0.022	185	157.74	27.26	0.04	61	691	1184	19.16%	60.4%	56.15%	4.25%	0.973	0.970	0.003	0.887	0.879	0.008	0.779	0.649	0.130
Frederik Andersen [TBODY] [/TBODY]	23	44	59.79	15.8	0.705	0.961	0.948	0.014	0.929	1.96	2.67	0.70	2.63	1344	0.048	0.041	0.008	117	145.19	-28.19	-0.05	44	576	1098	19.01%	54.29%	55.86%	-1.57%	0.975	0.969	0.006	0.920	0.880	0.040	0.791	0.716	0.075
Andrei Vasilevskiy [TBODY] [/TBODY]	29	64	79.32	15.3	0.523	0.957	0.947	0.010	0.924	2.19	2.71	0.52	2.55	1756	0.026	0.042	-0.015	177	181.03	-4.03	0	64	776	1434	19.07%	56.07%	55.66%	0.42%	0.975	0.969	0.006	0.916	0.876	0.040	0.656	0.647	0.009
Tristan Jarry [TBODY] [/TBODY]	28	53	68.12	15.1	0.543	0.963	0.953	0.010	0.932	1.91	2.45	0.54	2.52	1667	0.042	0.038	0.004	185	177.54	7.46	0.01	53	732	1387	20.75%	54.51%	53.42%	1.09%	0.971	0.971	-0.000	0.896	0.879	0.017	0.873	0.687	0.186
Connor Hellebuyck [TBODY] [/TBODY]	27	75	86.98	12.0	0.453	0.951	0.943	0.008	0.913	2.83	3.29	0.45

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[supermann_98]

Leafs with Marner in the lineup: Top xGF% in the NHL

Leafs without Marner: sub 48% xGF%

He cant come back fast enough. Probably the most underrated player in the league around his own teams message board looking at some of the posts lately.

I can cherry pick certain stats as well ...

The two games highlighted are the games Marner came back from the injury and played with Matthews ... Notice anything consistent about Matthews goals per game without Mitch?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Leafs with Marner in the lineup: Top xGF% in the NHL
Leafs without Marner: sub 48% xGF%
He cant come back fast enough. Probably the most underrated player in the league around his own teams message board looking at some of the posts lately.

PP looked dysfunctional tonight as well without him, but oddly, not a single mention of it anywhere in this thread...

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Got excited when the penalty was called, I thought for sure it was interference on Vegas. The only reason Clifford tripped him was because he was interfered with. Makes absolutely no sense how Clifford got the penalty here, very confusing call.

But Cliffy did not even trip him .. his stick was up in air .. LOL LOL LOL .. it just makes me laugh at this point .. it is pure and simple NHL game management for home team to help them out and get a point

 

[ACC1224]

Getting points when you probably shouldn't, while great can often precede a few losses. Lets hope the Leafs can buck that trend.

 

[The Examiner]

But Cliffy did not even trip him .. his stick was up in air .. LOL LOL LOL .. it just makes me laugh at this point .. it is pure and simple NHL game management for home team to help them out and get a point

Clifford “kicked” his leg out from under him. It wasn’t on purpose but that’s what I saw on the replay.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

The Clifford penalty for those that missed it

On what alternate universe of hockey was that a trip??? And people say Leaf fans complain too much about the refs? Explain that one.

 

[The Examiner]

On what alternate universe of hockey was that a trip??? And people say Leaf fans complain too much about the refs? Explain that one.

In the same universe where kicking a player’s leg out from under him is a trip.

 

[showtime8]

On what alternate universe of hockey was that a trip??? And people say Leaf fans complain too much about the refs? Explain that one.

He slewfooted the defenseman when they initiated contact. Watch his right skate at the 2 second mark of that clip.

 

[Apex Predator]

PP looked dysfunctional tonight as well without him, but oddly, not a single mention of it anywhere in this thread...

yeah since they didn’t score. I’m not against asking the question why he struggles on the PP but not sure taking him off is the answer.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Clifford “kicked” his leg out from under him. It wasn’t on purpose but that’s what I saw on the replay.

Clearly you have never played da game .. the fall was due strictly to an improper hit by McNabb on a player beating him to puck and then he fell with boomarang effect of boards from Cliffy's body weight .. it is hockey hitting 101 here but if you never played at a high level you couldn't understand unless you have experienced it thousands of times

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Clearly you have never played da game .. the fall was due strictly to an improper hit by McNabb on a player beating him to puck and then he fell with boomarang effect of boards from Cliffy's body weight .. it is hockey hitting 101 here but if you never played at a high level you couldn't understand unless you have experienced it thousands of times

on a slew foot play you would see Cliffy control upper body with arm and then swing foot under back skate .. you can't do it when both guys are skating forwards unless you control McNabbs upper body

 

[saffronleaf]

Just finished watching the last half and while I know everyone around here loves Nylander and maybe it was just a bad game but he is Kessel bad in his own end. Lazy, doesn't use his speed and avoids contact like it's a virus.

yea he needs to be more engaged in the d zone and have better positioning. there have been times where he's shown he can do it. but just not as consistent when compared to his transition game and o zone game.

 

[Leaf4Life]

As much as I didn't like the Clifford call, the fact that there are people on both sides debating if it was a penalty or not makes me have to give the benefit of the doubt to the refs here.

We have the opportunity to watch the replay over and over (potentially in slow motion) and we still can't come to an agreement! Can't really blame the ref at all.

 

[Clark4Ever]

We got 3 out of 4 points against two of the top teams in the league on the road despite not playing to our potential.

I'll take it.

 

[The Examiner]

Clearly you have never played da game .. the fall was due strictly to an improper hit by McNabb on a player beating him to puck and then he fell with boomarang effect of boards from Cliffy's body weight .. it is hockey hitting 101 here but if you never played at a high level you couldn't understand unless you have experienced it thousands of times

All this is irrelevant. The offical saw Clifford kick his leg out from under him. That’s all that matters. Let me guess, THE officials haven’t played THE game at a high level.

 

[Zybalto]

I can cherry pick certain stats as well ...
View attachment 497776

The two games highlighted are the games Marner came back from the injury and played with Matthews ... Notice anything consistent about Matthews goals per game without Mitch?

A perfect example of what I am talking about (and the fact these posts get "likes") I would sticky this to the top if I could.

Anyone with half a brain can see how different the team is without Marner on it and, yes, not "cherry picking" but looking at all the time they have played together, Marner/Matthews are one of the greatest duos in the league. They just have been.


I mean, Matthews is one of the greatest goal scorers of all time. The fact he can get his with other wingers isnt all that surprising. Taking two games where Marner (coming off a month long injury) still played well and contributed to two dominant team wins just means you still arnt paying attention. Marner is one of the most versatile, complete wingers in the game and a team leader.

Looking at things from the start of the 2019 season, Here is how Matthews has looked with and without Marner:

Matthews line with Marner:
xGF%: 61.12
Goals for/60: 3.57
Goals Against/60: 2.1

Matthews line without Marner:
xGF%: 55.37
Goals for/60: 3.02
Goals Against/60: 2.34

Thats a real sample size. That 150ish games to tell us a solid story.....and the story is saying that Marner/Matthews are not just one of the greatest combo in the league but up there with the best in Leafs history. Matthews with Marner have basically the same stats as the perfection line on Boston. Other teams shutdown lines and top dmen cannot handle the two way dominance they bring. One gets the feeling some folks around here want Marner to fail though. The smallest reason to attack him, they go right for it. All I know is that I've seen this team enough without him to know that he's worth that contract everyone keeps bitching about.

 

[ACC1224]

I can cherry pick certain stats as well ...
View attachment 497776

The two games highlighted are the games Marner came back from the injury and played with Matthews ... Notice anything consistent about Matthews goals per game without Mitch?

Trade Marner and Matthews will never have a goalless game again!

 

[Gary Nylund]

A perfect example of what I am talking about (and the fact these posts get "likes") I would sticky this to the top if I could.

I took that post to be a response to you to show you (in fact, he did quote you so it was a response to you) how silly it is to use small sample sizes. I guess the point went over your head.

 

[Zybalto]

TBH I haven't noticed people saying leave Kase on the top line, if I had noticed I would have said something - really bad idea IMO.

The team is worse without Marner, no doubt about that. Your numbers that show we go from being #1 to being below average though ... to me it's another example of those numbers not being reliable for assessing individual players. We've talked about this before, you know my stance on this but just thought I'd restate it for the record. I wish I had bookmarked the post that explained at length why these numbers are so bad for player evaluation bit unfortunately I didn't. I think you'd find it very interesting, who knows, you might even agree as it was a very well written post but whatever.

Let's end on a positive note and just say that we agree that Marner is an excellent player. I really hope Marner plays the best hockey of his life in the playoffs!

All good.

I'll just leave you with the old school approach then:

Average shots/game with Marner in the lineup:
Leafs 34
Opposition: 30

Average shots/game without Marner in the lineup:
Leafs 32
Opposition: 36

It's a little old-fashioned I guess but the turnaround sure backs up all the modern metrics does it not? Modern shot quality metrics make it look even worse (as the Leafs were stymied by good goaltending more with Marner in the lineup against the Rangers for example). I concede it's still a small sample size but I'm hoping we dont get any more of it myself.

As long as Dubas doesn't mess with things too much, I think we had something really special going on with the team he built (outside of Ritchie but who knows? maybe he'll play his way back into the lineup). Campbell is the most impressive thing to me. Finally found a guy capable of carrying the team in the playoffs basically for free. Just need him to make the big saves in the playoffs this year like every winning team has in crunch time.

 

[Zybalto]

I took that post to be a response to you to show you (in fact, he did quote you so it was a response to you) how silly it is to use small sample sizes. I guess the point went over your head.

Way over man if that was the point, got my hands full atm.

Larger sample sizes put me so in the right on these things I get triggered easy heh.

 

[Mad Scramble]

Got excited when the penalty was called, I thought for sure it was interference on Vegas. The only reason Clifford tripped him was because he was interfered with. Makes absolutely no sense how Clifford got the penalty here, very confusing call.

The only person trippin' here was the ref

 

[zeke]

NHL Goalie Statistics

Name	Games Played	Goals Against	Expected Goals Against	Goals Saved Above Expected	Goals Saved Above Expected Per 60	Save % on Unblocked Shots	xSave % on Unblocked Shots	Save % Above Expected	Save % on Shots On Goal	GAA	xGAA	GAA Better Than Expected	Wins Above Replacement	Icetime (Minutes)	Rebounds Per Save	xRebounds Per Save	Rebounds Above Expected	Puck Freezes	Expected Puck Freeze	Puck Freezes Above Expected	Puck Freezes Above Expected Per Shot On Goal	Goals Against	Saves on Shots On Goal	Saves on Unblocked Shot Attempts	% of Shot Attempts Blocked By Teammates	% of Unblocked Shot Attempts Against On Goal	Expected % of Unblocked Shot Attempts Against On Goal	On Goal % Above Expected	Low Danger Unblocked Shot Attempt Save %	xLow Danger Unblocked Shot Attempt Save %	Low Danger Unblocked Shot Attempt Save% Above Expected	Medium Danger Unblocked Shot Attempt Save %	xMedium Danger Unblocked Shot Attempt Save %	Medium Danger Unblocked Shot AttemptSave % Above Expected	High Danger Unblocked Shot Attempt Save %	xHigh Danger Unblocked Shot Attempt Save %	High Danger Unblocked Shot Attempt Save % Above Expected
Jack Campbell [TBODY] [/TBODY]	27	53	71.02	18.0	0.687	0.963	0.950	0.013	0.935	2.02	2.71	0.69	3.00	1572	0.038	0.041	-0.003	218	183.2	34.8	0.04	53	764	1373	17.81%	57.29%	56.56%	0.74%	0.981	0.970	0.011	0.887	0.880	0.007	0.817	0.694	0.123
Igor Shesterkin [TBODY] [/TBODY]	21	42	59.37	17.4	0.866	0.966	0.952	0.014	0.936	2.09	2.95	0.86	2.89	1206	0.039	0.04	-0.001	141	148.68	-7.68	-0.01	42	613	1197	19.86%	52.87%	53.88%	-1.02%	0.978	0.971	0.007	0.919	0.878	0.041	0.776	0.689	0.087
Juuse Saros [TBODY] [/TBODY]	30	67	84.21	17.2	0.583	0.959	0.948	0.011	0.927	2.27	2.85	0.58	2.87	1769	0.034	0.042	-0.008	235	198.21	36.79	0.04	67	846	1567	18.71%	55.88%	55.07%	0.8%	0.973	0.969	0.004	0.904	0.881	0.023	0.759	0.664	0.096
Jonathan Quick [TBODY] [/TBODY]	22	52	68.38	16.4	0.757	0.955	0.941	0.014	0.921	2.40	3.15	0.76	2.73	1300	0.058	0.044	0.014	126	141.48	-15.48	-0.02	52	606	1107	18.89%	56.77%	56.77%	0%	0.982	0.970	0.012	0.888	0.878	0.009	0.775	0.672	0.103
Sergei Bobrovsky [TBODY] [/TBODY]	25	61	76.81	15.8	0.660	0.951	0.938	0.013	0.919	2.55	3.21	0.66	2.64	1436	0.065	0.043	0.022	185	157.74	27.26	0.04	61	691	1184	19.16%	60.4%	56.15%	4.25%	0.973	0.970	0.003	0.887	0.879	0.008	0.779	0.649	0.130
Frederik Andersen [TBODY] [/TBODY]	23	44	59.79	15.8	0.705	0.961	0.948	0.014	0.929	1.96	2.67	0.70	2.63	1344	0.048	0.041	0.008	117	145.19	-28.19	-0.05	44	576	1098	19.01%	54.29%	55.86%	-1.57%	0.975	0.969	0.006	0.920	0.880	0.040	0.791	0.716	0.075
Andrei Vasilevskiy [TBODY] [/TBODY]	29	64	79.32	15.3	0.523	0.957	0.947	0.010	0.924	2.19	2.71	0.52	2.55	1756	0.026	0.042	-0.015	177	181.03	-4.03	0	64	776	1434	19.07%	56.07%	55.66%	0.42%	0.975	0.969	0.006	0.916	0.876	0.040	0.656	0.647	0.009
Tristan Jarry [TBODY] [/TBODY]	28	53	68.12	15.1	0.543	0.963	0.953	0.010	0.932	1.91	2.45	0.54	2.52	1667	0.042	0.038	0.004	185	177.54	7.46	0.01	53	732	1387	20.75%	54.51%	53.42%	1.09%	0.971	0.971	-0.000	0.896	0.879	0.017	0.873	0.687	0.186
Connor Hellebuyck [TBODY] [/TBODY]	27	75	86.98	12.0	0.453	0.951	0.943	0.008	0.913	2.83	3.29	0.45

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

oh my - Mess you used a good analytics site properly! nice. good job.

i was using evolving-hockey's model, myself.

Note, though, on your model there, that Jack has accumulated more because he has played more.

Of the guys listed there Shesterkin, Quick, and Andersen have much higher goals saved above expected rates (i.e. the next column over).