Series Talk: Leafs Vs Lightning- Thunderstruck

[Enniskillen]

Holl is worse than Lyub, he plays weak at boards and can’t clear the crease. And he is so weak, can’t even hit.

 

[AuraSphere]

Boosh has been on for a grand total of one 5v5 goal through 2 games which was off the wonky line change.

Who ya gonna plug Holl in with? Are you going to break up our shutdown pairing Muzzin-Brodie which has been spectacular? Break up Gio-Lilly for Gio-Holl which was an unmitigated disaster when they tried it? Rielly-Holl has literally never been done.

Your opinion may be different than mine but that doesn't mean it's not completely foolish

Keep calling names - to me you're a fool thinking Lybushkin belongs on the top pairing with Rielly

Your mother raised a nice keyboard warrior

 

[leafsfan5]

Those odds are fleeting based on historical data.

Historical Stanley Cup Playoff data for 7-game series

First 2 games:

Winner Game 1, Series 1-0 ... 68.6 % ---- Loser : 31.4 %
Winner Game 2, Series 1-1 ... 51.9 % ---- Loser: 48.1 % (Leafs Currently)

Next 2 Games:

Game #3

Winner Game 3, Series 2-1 ... 67.4 % ---- Loser: 32.6 %

Game#4

Winner Game 4, Series 3-1 ... 89.6 % ---- Loser: 10.4 %
Winner Game 4, Series 2-2 ... 47.7 % ---- Loser: 52.3 %

==================================================

Based on the data of past results Leafs went from 68.6 % winning game #1 to just 48.1% (now underdogs) by winning game #1 but then losing game #2.

Game #3 winner bumps it back up to 67.4%, or falls to 32.6%

Oddly if a team loses game #3 and wins #4 making the series 2-2 again, then the losing team of that game still had the better odds of winning the series. If you lose both games #3 and #4 then its essentially lights out and down to only 10.4%..

Throw all these numbers out, they don’t mean anything to us

We’ve had a 1-0 lead, a 2-1 lead, a 3-2 lead and a 3-1 lead. Hell, we’ve been down 3-1 in a series and stormed back to take the lead in third period of a game 7. Toronto doesn’t follow the norm, we’re the outliers.

For us, the series isn’t completely over or even leaning in one direction until the final whistle

 

[Apex Predator]

I worry Keffe is going to over react and switch up the d pairings. Take Lily out and put Holl.

I think you keep D pairings the same and just put Speeza in for Simmonds. Roll with all skill for game 3.

 

[IPS]

Keep calling names - to me you're a fool thinking Lybushkin belongs on the top pairing with Rielly

Love you addressed none of the specific points I brought up. Care to tell me where you plan on plugging in Holl?

We've outscored Tampa 5-2 at ES through both games and have outplayed them badly, you're looking for a scapegoat when there's none to be had.

Oh and Rielly-Lyubushkin isn't the top pair - Muzzin-Brodie is, which is the pairing you'll have to break up to plug Holl in since those 2 are the only guys he's really played with this season.

 

[zeke]

Yup. It's no coincidence that there's a penalty crackdown as soon as the Leafs start playing the legendary "playoffs hockey".

 

[keonsbitterness]

Throw all these numbers out, they don’t mean anything to us

We’ve had a 1-0 lead, a 2-1 lead, a 3-2 lead and a 3-1 lead. Hell, we’ve been down 3-1 in a series and stormed back to take the lead in third period of a game 7. Toronto doesn’t follow the norm, we’re the outliers.

For us, the series isn’t completely over or even leaning in one direction until the final whistle

Mess is HUUUUUGGGGEEEE on advanced stats.

 

[IPS]

Yup. It's no coincidence that there's a penalty crackdown as soon as the Leafs start playing the legendary "playoffs hockey".

Uhh except when Tampa commits interference 20 times a game?

 

[Mess]

Matthews on Leafs' mindset heading into Game 3: 'It’s our turn to push back'​

After being dominated in Game 2 on home ice, Auston Matthews describes the Leafs' mindset heading into Game 3 on the road, and explains that the team's main focus is on pushing back. Meanwhile, Mark Giordano and Sheldon Keefe discuss the lessons learned Wednesday night, and the importance of better discipline.

 

[hockeynorth]

They’ll take the next two, drop one, and then close it out in Tampa in game 6. No sweat.

 

[Clark4Ever]

I think last night showed that we need to play to our strengths from this point forward. Don't back down from the physicality, but focus on speed and the forecheck and let our skill shine.

Campbell will also need to be better than he was last night.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Keep calling names - to me you're a fool thinking Lybushkin belongs on the top pairing with Rielly

Your mother raised a nice keyboard warrior

Rielly is not playing on 1st pair .. he is playing PP and 2nd/3rd line rest of time .. bigger issue is we need to get a better version of Lub but we don't get better putting an AHL skater and brain into our lineup with Rielly

 

[bossram]

My concern level still isn't super high. The Leafs have been the better team at 5-on-5. They were yesterday too. It's unfortunate that poor penalty trouble did them in, as well as some misfortune (e.g. Brodie losing his stick while Kampf passed it to him, leading to the Kucherov goal).

I think Keefe has to stop playing into the "toughness" element of it. That's what Tampa wants. They want scrums and they want penalties because at 5-on-5 they can't keep up. Just play the best players you can ice.

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Mikheyev - Tavares - Kase (was a solid line in Game 1)
Engvall - Kerfoot - Nylander (Kerfoot-Nylander is a strong combo, Engvall has been solid)
Blackwell - Kampf - Spezza (not really a line, just a collection of utility players to be used in particular situations)

Muzzin - Brodie (Leafs' best pair thus far)
Rielly - Liljegren (feed OZ starts, avoid defensive responsibility)
Giordano - Holl (for secondary matchups)

 

[IPS]

"Dominated in game 2"

God the sensationalism of these smooth brains at TSN never ceases to amaze me. The shots were even and the difference was special teams where Tampa got 7 PP's - dominated!!

 

[kk87]

It's just unbelievably mind numbing to me that some people still want Simmonds and Clifford playing on our fourth line - both black holes offensively, and both have combined for some of the stupidest, most selfish penalties you'll see at the most important point in the season. We escaped unscathed from Clifford's idiocy in game 1, but we didn't learn our lesson and Simmonds singlehandedly killed our chances in game 2. Get these clowns out of our lineup for the rest of the playoffs

 

[Not My Tempo]

I think last night showed that we need to play to our strengths from this point forward. Don't back down from the physicality, but focus on speed and the forecheck and let our skill shine.

Campbell will also need to be better than he was last night.

Yeah, the Matthews hit to set up the first goal is what I think a lot of Leaf fans have wanted for a while. Our players playing hard and not backing down.

I couldn’t care less about our plugs getting into pissing matches with their plugs.

 

[Azazel]

Yup. It's no coincidence that there's a penalty crackdown as soon as the Leafs start playing the legendary "playoffs hockey".

"Its easier to fool someone, than convince someone they've been fooled."

 

[BigGulpsEh]

4th line guys can't be taking stupid ass selfish penalties that cost leafs goals.

Simmonds can't even string a pass together anymore. If he wants to stay in the line up he better cut out the bullshit

 

[sxvnert]

Bunting Matthews Nylander
Kerfoot Tavares Marner
Mikheyev Kämpf Kase
Engvall Blackwell Spezza

Tavares needs Marner, Matthews can play without him and has chemistry with Nylander. The switch is obvious.

 

[BTP]

On the bright side:

We've put 8 past Vasi in 2 games.
We've outscored them 5 on 5 and have been the better team 5 on 5.
We're not getting pushed around.
We've scored a short handed goal in 2 games.
Not getting blown out even with our PP not clicking.

Stay out of the box and we should have all the confidence in the world.

Put Spezza in, he's scored clutch Playoff goals and we need another playmaker.

Priority should be to get the PP back clicking immediately. If we get our PP going we take the series.

GLG

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

I worry Keffe is going to over react and switch up the d pairings. Take Lily out and put Holl.

I think you keep D pairings the same and just put Speeza in for Simmonds. Roll with all skill for game 3.

The ideal play is to take out Boosh, give Rielly-Liljegren primary offensive zone starts, and then Brodie on the shutdown pair with Gio or Muzzin if we don't want Muzzin/Holl together on the 3rd.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

On the bright side:

We've put 8 past Vasi in 2 games.
We've outscored them 5 on 5 and have been the better team 5 on 5.
We're not getting pushed around.
We've scored a short handed goal in 2 games.
Not getting blown out even with our PP not clicking.

Stay out of the box and we should have all the confidence in the world.

Put Spezza in, he's scored clutch Playoff goals and we need another playmaker.

Priority should be to get the PP back clicking immediately. If we get our PP going we take the series.

GLG

The promising thing about our PP is that most of them have looked really good. Those first two PPs yesterday, we were all over them. It is not like our PP looked like Tampa's in the first game.

Even Tampa really hasn't had a deadly PP in the second game. It was disastrous, but our PP was doing a better job setting up than theirs.

The ideal play is to take out Boosh, give Rielly-Liljegren primary offensive zone starts, and then Brodie on the shutdown pair with Gio or Muzzin if we don't want Muzzin/Holl together on the 3rd.

Agreed.

 

[IPS]

The ideal play is to take out Boosh, give Rielly-Liljegren primary offensive zone starts, and then Brodie on the shutdown pair with Gio or Muzzin if we don't want Muzzin/Holl together on the 3rd.

What exactly makes that the "ideal play"? Rielly-Liljegren pairing has a very small sample size.

 

[TorMapleJays]

@OVO16 so… Spezza finally make your lineup yet?

Spezza and Clifford need to be in this lineup.

Who comes out?
Simmonds and …….. Tavares (honestly Engvall or Blackwell)

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

What exactly makes that the "ideal play"? Rielly-Liljegren pairing has a very small sample size.

Rielly's best partner all year was Liljegren despite the small sample size and they had almost 8 (yes 8) xGF/60 when paired with the Matthews line.

They had horrible goaltending behind them for a two week stretch (around .700% I think) but they limited chances pretty well as well.

Love Boosh's physicality but it limits Rielly's ability to get involved offensively when his partner can't move the puck.