Confirmed with Link: Leafs sign F Auston Matthews to extension (4 years, $13.25M AAV)

[WTFMAN99]

I've talked to 5 people now in the real world and everyone thought the deal was fine.
Most people don't really care what the players make, they just want the team to win.

This board, IMO isn't a good representation of the fanbase.

I just don't think he really deserved the highest cap hit in the league. He wasn't really even a top 5 guy last year.

You can make the case that 4 years removes a lot of risk for us compared to the 8 year deal but we could have made the aav reflect that.

 

[ShaneFalco]

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

This feels like a good deal until you compare it to any other top player in the league.

Anyways, whatever, we have him for 5 more seasons and I'd prefer having him to any scenario where we don't have him

 

[Sypher04]

I've talked to 5 people now in the real world and everyone thought the deal was fine.
Most people don't really care what the players make, they just want the team to win.

This board, IMO isn't a good representation of the fanbase.

Way too many people don’t realize this. It’s the same way with people who passionately follow and argue video game things as well. We are not average fans and our opinions do not respresent the average fan well and can even border on extreme when compared to them.

 

[ShaneFalco]

This deal was really lost years ago when Dubas was weak in negotiations when he was a restricted free agent, and they had real leverage to use.

 

[Stephen]

No, he doesn't want to sign for 8 years at 25.

My guess Leafs would have loved an 8 year deal.

I think the ideal contract sequencing from a team POV for a homegrown superstar is something like this:

3 Year ELC
8 Year Pre-Prime AAV amortized over time.
4-6 Year Post-Peak loyalty contract.

The second contract length is key. You buy up all the future peak years at a lower AAV while the player has yet to establish themselves and then have a long runway to build your team out around them.

After 11 years the player is probably so dyed in the wool organizational guy that you just keep the party going, player is past peak and the AAV tapers down.

Matthews 2nd contract broke that sequence. But the 3rd contract ends up buying back most of his peak years at an AAV that isn’t as bad as it could have been.

Again we didn’t get a discount or anything but ends up being a fair and workable price.

 

[Sypher04]

I just don't think he really deserved the highest cap hit in the league. He wasn't really even a top 5 guy last year.

You can make the case that 4 years removes a lot of risk for us compared to the 8 year deal but we could have made the aav reflect that.

And he was top 2 the previous 2 years. Why are people so fixated on one year where he clearly wasn’t healthy.

 

[mjd1001]

On the surface, I don't mind this deal at all. It doesn't appear to be very team friendly...but its not an overpay. I think Matthews played though a nagging injury that impacted his performance last year. I think if he is healed up, he is a 50-60 goal guy. This deal is not an overpay for that.

Below the surface, the problem is not this deal, but the entire contract situation. I have said here many times having no bad big contracts with stars can make you a very good team (the Leafs are), but unless you have bargains, it is hard to be a 'great/cup favorite' team. Tage Thompson long term at $7m per year. Jack Hughes or Hintz long term at $8m per year. Those are the bargains you can have a chance to build an elite team around.

 

[Budz]

There are those that will find the negatives in this. The reason being.. they find negatives with everything, generally being negative people. It's pretty clear reading through the posts. This has nothing to do with logic, it's just they are negative people.

Personally, I don't mind this deal at all. I'm not tied to Matthews long-term, and am concerned about his ability to physically be healthy enough to perform when needed, and maybe just overall concerned about his ability to raise his game when needed. I'm patient enough to not want to throw very talented players overboard yet, but would say this gives us enough time to make future decisions. He's been THE best goal scorer in the league, since he joined, and it's hard to replace that, and he's rounded out his game well too. But, we need his wrists healthy, and we need his BEST in the playoffs, and we haven't seen that yet.

I like that there are no NMC/NTC in this deal. If it's not working out for us, he'll be moved, and that's a positive for the Leafs.

He's a star, and an incredible goal scorer when healthy.. but he hasn't always been healthy, and that's happened too often. We have five more years of control, so if it doesn't work out for us, we can still trade him for a randsome, with two to three years left on the contract.

I get the desire to have him controlled for 1 + 8 years... but I think given his wrist problems, and our lack of playoff success, and likelihood an 8 year commitment from Matty likely means NMC, that this is the better outcome for us.

Pretty sure it was said it’s a full No Trade per his agent.

 

[WTFMAN99]

And he was top 2 the previous 2 years. Why are people so fixated on one year where he clearly wasn’t healthy.

2021-22 he was 6th in points

2020-21 - he was 5th in points

2022-23 - he was 22nd

2019-20 - he was 9th

2018-19 - he was 42nd

So...that was false.

 

[Sypher04]

Just a quick reminder:
Most goals the last 7 seasons
1. Matthews 299

2. Ovechkin 297
3. McDavid 287
4. Draisaitl 285
5. Pastrnak 276

50 goal drop

6. MacKinnon 225

Matthews also accomplished this while playing 14-49 games less than those listed 2-5

2021-22 he was 6th in points

2020-21 - he was 5th in points

2022-23 - he was 22nd

2019-20 - he was 9th

2018-19 - he was 42nd

So...that was false.

What I said is subjective but not false. Nice barely even surface level analysis. Him being only 5th or 6th in points doesn’t remotely stop him from being the 2nd best player that year

And I said nothing about the other 3 years you listed, so no idea why you included them

 

[MSZ]

On the surface, I don't mind this deal at all. It doesn't appear to be very team friendly...but its not an overpay. I think Matthews played though a nagging injury that impacted his performance last year. I think if he is healed up, he is a 50-60 goal guy. This deal is not an overpay for that.

Below the surface, the problem is not this deal, but the entire contract situation. I have said here many times having no bad big contracts with stars can make you a very good team (the Leafs are), but unless you have bargains, it is hard to be a 'great/cup favorite' team. Tage Thompson long term at $7m per year. Jack Hughes or Hintz long term at $8m per year. Those are the bargains you can have a chance to build an elite team around.

This contract simply blows, Marner and Nylander are going to use this as a benchmark and ask for more money for their extensions. The only core guy who has a fair deal is Mo Reilly.

I don't know how do they build a cup contending team with this much money tied to the core guys.

 

[GoonieFace]

Cap hit is gross, but i prefer the short term deal. He may be prone to breakdown as he gets older

 

[myleafs]

If we want to keep both Nylander and Marner we'd have to find a way to move Rielly.

I keep reading lets get Nylander signed then we can deal with Marner....so......we are just gonna run it back until these guys retire? Is that the plan?...Im so excited.....

 

[WTFMAN99]

Just a quick reminder:
Most goals the last 7 seasons
1. Matthews 299

2. Ovechkin 297
3. McDavid 287
4. Draisaitl 285
5. Pastrnak 276

50 goal drop

6. MacKinnon 225

Matthews also accomplished this while playing 14-49 games less than those listed 2-5



What I said is subjective but not false. Nice barely even surface level analysis. Him being only 5th or 6th in points doesn’t remotely stop him from being the 2nd best player that year

And I said nothing about the other 3 years you listed, so no idea why you included them

I thought maybe you got the years mixed up or I misremembered some stats, but you were definitely false/wrong.

He had a Hart / Rocket one year but otherwise has been outperformed by his peers.

 

[nsleaf]

This whole shtick is beyond tiring. It's a fn hockey forum where you're going to get different viewpoints. I've stayed away from this place because of posts like this. Some people are passionate fans - you do you. But stop with the miserable people bs

What's even more tiring is the "if your not pissed, your not a fan" shtick.

 

[Dreakmur]

I think the next set will. Draisaitl ain’t taking another team friendly he’s going to be the highest paid forward until McDavid.

What are the odds that Draisaitl signs for fewer than 8 years?

 

[myleafs]

Leafs got shutdown by the hottest goalie run in 20 years, is what it is.

And the year before that? and the year before that? Man we are a unlucky bunch that gets goalied every year...I mean what are the odds?

 

[Dekes For Days]

Curious on some examples of franchise players signing a 4 year deal on the 2nd contract after their ELC. Especially after already signing a shorter term 1st contract. All the recentish guys i can think of that signed the 5 year terms followed them up with 8+ year deals.

It's been less common recently than earlier in the cap era, but we're also in a pretty unique situation where the cap is artificially suppressed below the normal 50% of revenues and about to skyrocket. I would have preferred 8 years too, but I'm not going to bemoan additional years of one of the best players this franchise has ever seen.

 

[Oscar Peterson]

I thought maybe you got the years mixed up or I misremembered some stats, but you were definitely false/wrong.

He had a Hart / Rocket one year but otherwise has been outperformed by his peers.

He won a Ted Lindsay lol, the actual NHL players thought he was the best player in the league that year. I don't mind him putting up a few less total points than some other guys when he's typically leading the league in goals scored with excellent defense (which is a rarity for just about every goal-scorer)

 

[LeafSteel]

And the year before that? and the year before that? Man we are a unlucky bunch that gets goalied every year...I mean what are the odds?

Honestly, it’s absolutely baffling that our shots from the blue line and perimeter get stopped more often than not.

Fortunately we don’t have any highly paid players going hard to the net, risking injury, in order to cash in on some chances.

We don’t win in the playoffs but at least our high paid skilled guys stay healthy.

 

[666]

I'm most impressed that Matthews is betting on his health. If he gets injured he could be out more than $50M.

 

[DuklaNation]

These guys are using the Leafs franchise as their personal bank machine. How much failure is required before change occurs?

 

[WTFMAN99]

He won a Ted Lindsay lol, the actual NHL players thought he was the best player in the league that year. I don't mind him putting up a few less total points than some other guys when he's typically leading the league in goals scored with excellent defense (which is a rarity for just about every goal-scorer)

Yes - that year he was fantastic - however he has been outperformed by his peers more often than not.

Definitely wouldn't be making him the highest paid player in the league.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I've talked to 5 people now in the real world and everyone thought the deal was fine.
Most people don't really care what the players make, they just want the team to win.

This board, IMO isn't a good representation of the fanbase.

Just because the people you've talked to don't understand that what players make has a direct impact on the organization to build a winning team around them, doesn't mean it's not an obvious truth.

I wish I could say it’s surprising that so many here are seemingly more fixated on one down season (largely due to injury) than the years of play before it that set the bar so high that a 44 goal, 94 point pace is now considered poor.

Thrilled to have the deal done. Term is fine with me, though I wanted 5. And AAV is 250k more than I’d hoped. Hard to be upset. Matthews is a Leaf for 5 more years, at least.

His PTS/60 indicates that if it was a down season, then it's one of six down seasons out of the last seven.

Seems to me more like 5 out of the last 6 seasons are the baseline and is where we should expect him to be but instead, he's being paid based as if the one outlier season was his baseline.