Leafs Road trip save % .838

[HamiltonNHL]

Natural Stat Trick shows the road trip SV% as being .838.

Ouch.

But anyways, here's some comparisons of stuff we can track to give an idea of whether they've just played worse defensively (and no this isn't the be all and end all, but I think it's more accurate than 20 different people's differing eye tests). These are at 5v5, xGA/60 is Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes, SCA/60 is Scoring Chances Against per 60 minutes:

During their 5-game road trip (2-2-1): 2.3 xGA/60, 24.4 SCA/60 - .838 SV%

The 5 games immediately before the road trip (4-1): 2.3 xGA/60, 22.3 SCA/60 - .919 SV%

When they went 13-2 between November 1st and December 1st: 2.3 xGA/60, 27.4 SCA/60 - .954 SV%

Not a whole lot has changed in their game. I don't think they are giving up a whole lot more chances or a whole lot more quality chances than they were previously, they're just going in the net at a far higher rate than before. The SV% during the 13-2 run was unsustainably high and this is, in all likelihood, unsustainably low.

(data from Reddit)

Click to read more...

 

[Funk21]

Mrazek needs to get some time between the pipes to take some of the stress of Campbell.

Second as a team 5 on 5 we have to be better, we have shown we can lock it down on the PK there is no reason why we can’t do it 5 on 5.

 

[A1LeafNation]

We are going through a funk. It happens.

 

[egd27]

Mrazek needs to get some time between the pipes to take some of the stress of Campbell.

Second as a team 5 on 5 we have to be better, we have shown we can lock it down on the PK there is no reason why we can’t do it 5 on 5.

Campbell had 2 weeks off, and then has only played 6 games in 19 days this month. Not exactly a demanding schedule.

 

[zeke]

Jack hasn't been super sharp but at the same time much of it is just bounces going against us that were going our way before.

We're now down to around 8th or so in team save percentage which is where (I.e. borderline top-10) we should probably expect to stay.

 

[zeke]

Hey at least we can re-sign Fred again!

But now of course he's NOT A LEGIT #1 and CANT HANDLE THE WORKLOAD.

 

[Mess]

Before the road trip Campbell was among the league leaders in "goals saved above expected" with > 18.

Campbell appears to have been masking Leafs shortcomings by above expected saves and goaltending on his part, while conserving wins and stealing points.

Then the QofC on this road trip got turned up and we're no longer playing Covid19 riddled Ottawa and Edmonton at home to pad our stats.

Now his "goals saved above expected" has dropped to the 12 range and any further drop will see it fall out of the top 10.

Leafs record is 2-2-1 = .500 or very average defensive play and their security blanket which has been Campbell has been showing signs of tiring or cracks and the real Leafs team play underneath exposed.

What was once a 17-0-0 record when leading after 2 periods has turned into 3-1 and 4-1 early lead collapses on this road trip, which is a valid concern which even the coach is now expressing publicly.

 

[Niagara Bill]

I am sure the math guys will tell us the shots are coming 3.5 ft closer to the net than 3 weeks ago. Maybe true. But I see forwards from opposition teams living near the crease. D us soft, four forwards too far away from net to fill in the space. When you d loses all the battles, breakouts cannot happen. Look at Fox last night. Spent half the night in front of our goal. No fear of breakouts

 

[Clark4Ever]

The numbers and the eye test suggest the same thing.

Campbell has played more hockey in the last 12 months than he ever has before in his NHL career. This was to be expected at some point.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Before the road trip Campbell was among the league leaders in "goals saved above expected" with > 18.

Campbell appears to have been masking Leafs shortcomings by above expected saves and goaltending on his part, while conserving wins and stealing points.

Then the QofC on this road trip got turned up and we're no longer playing Covid19 riddled Ottawa and Edmonton at home to pad our stats.

Now his "goals saved above expected" has dropped to the 12 range and any further drop will see it fall out of the top 10.

Leafs record is 2-2-1 = .500 or very average defensive play and their security blanket which has been Campbell has been showing signs of tiring or cracks and the real Leafs team play underneath exposed.

What was once a 17-0-0 record when leading after 2 periods has turned into 3-1 and 4-1 early lead collapses on this road trip, which is a valid concern which even the coach is now expressing publicly.

If that is the case, than having a -5 GSAA over the past 4 games has been a major reason why we have been blowing leads.

There was an xGA per game of less than 3 over those 4 games. However, his GAA was almost 4.5. We are still 2-1-1 in those games.

Also, out of goalies who have played 1000 or more minutes this season, only the following goalies have had fewer xGA/60 so far this year: Philip Grubauer (SEA), Adin Hill (SJS), Andrei Vasilevsky (TBL), Vitek Vanecek (WSH), Linus Ullmark (BOS), Tristan Jarry (PIT), and Jacob Markstrom (CGY).

Nobody is going to dispute that Campbell has been a huge part in Toronto's success this year. I don't think it should come as a surprise that you need a goalie to perform well if you want to be a top team in the league, or to make it somewhere in the playoffs. If you don't, you get what the Leafs were facing with Andersen since Keefe took over. However, that does not mean that our defense is sucking either. In fact, he has had an easier time, for the most part, than Andersen and Bobrovsky; two teams that are ahead of us in the standings. And he is definitely not having to be Shestyerkin or Hellebuyck, who outside of Karel Vejmelka in ARI, have had a harder time than anyone in the NHL... Including Jake Allen in Montreal.

 

[zeke]

Before the road trip Campbell was among the league leaders in "goals saved above expected" with > 18.

Campbell appears to have been masking Leafs shortcomings by above expected saves and goaltending on his part, while conserving wins and stealing points.

Then the QofC on this road trip got turned up and we're no longer playing Covid19 riddled Ottawa and Edmonton at home to pad our stats.

Now his "goals saved above expected" has dropped to the 12 range and any further drop will see it fall out of the top 10.

.

So now even with Campbell down to just boderline top-10 on the season, as you say, and with the backups of course not being very good - the Leafs are still top-5 in goals against this year. That's good defense, looks like. Just like last year.

 

[AvroArrow]

Mrazek needs to get some time between the pipes to take some of the stress of Campbell.

Second as a team 5 on 5 we have to be better, we have shown we can lock it down on the PK there is no reason why we can’t do it 5 on 5.

Yeah, and if we are planning on moving him to re-sign Soup, we need him to show the league some sort of value. He needs playing time, we signed him to have a good reliable tandem, not to be Glenn Healy 2.0

 

[Havoc]

The numbers and the eye test suggest the same thing.

Campbell has played more hockey in the last 12 months than he ever has before in his NHL career. This was to be expected at some point.

It needs to be the opposite. Lack of play time. If he needs rest now, that's concerning.

My hope is that covid is messing with him. Lack of playing and all the commotion is effecting him mentally + making him rusty + just throwing him off overall -- which is a very reasonable theory. If this is true, he needs to play more right now to get back into groove, not play less. When he seems right again, work in Mrazek to avoid physical issues.

If it's a physical issue at this very moment (fatigue) we need to start planning the future of our goaltending from today because Campbell is not the long term answer. All they've been doing lately is resting.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Imagine the Leafs meltdown if Campbell goes down.

 

[Stephen]

When the machinery breaks down every part looks bad.

 

[zeke]

Imagine the Leafs meltdown if Campbell goes down.

 

[Buds17]

No doubt the "solution" to this "problem" will be to somewhat bridge that gap in GP between Campbell and Mrazek. Both goalies will continue to win and lose games to varying degrees. They might get too much credit during the good times and receive too much flak during the leaner times. There's a team in front of either that factors into all of this as well.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

838 tells me it's not a defense issue an 838 save% is 100% a goaltending issue you can't blame 838 on defense.

To put up that never there has to be goals that simply can't go in and there are.

Take last night, the 2nd goal can't go in, Sandin did his job, Campbell didn't.

Both goals against Arizona can't go in especially the 1st one.

The Rantanen goal and the OT winner against Colorado can't go in, Jack wasn't even looking at the puck on the Rantanen goal.

This is not a defense issue the goaltending needs to get their head out of their ass and do their job.

 

[Funk21]

Furthermore Dubas has to express to this group unless I can pull a miracle out my #ss nobody of any significance is coming.

This team is talented enough, the kids are playing great and the off-season acquisitions of Kase, Kampf and Bunting have all been solid. Mrazek as I said needs to get going too. Mikheyev has refound his drive and scoring touch and hopefully that continues.

It’s about attention to detail. When they get lazy and stop playing the other team takes over. Secondly they still haven’t found that killer instinct. You can’t go up 3-1/4-1 and stop playing. Teams are too good not to come back. Especially Vegas, Avs, STL and the NYR.

Listen to McDavid comments about their 3 to 1 lead. They gave it away, the difference is McDavid is absolutely pissed and disgusted about it and it shows where our player seem very nonchalantly about giving up the leads.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Jack wasn't even looking at the puck on the Rantanen goal.

That was a great pass

 

[HamiltonNHL]

McDavid is absolutely pissed and disgusted

They are in full free fall

 

[Funk21]

They are in full free fall

Agree but how many years are we gonna just continue to make excuses for this group. How many different players have come in here, effective or not and nothing changes. So you either look in the mirror and say I’m 500lbs because I eat Twinkies all day and don’t exercise or you keep deluding yourself and fail.

 

[Aashir]

It’s a funk

we will bounce out of it

 

[Menzinger]

Injuries/covid woth the D haven't helped. But part of this is as simple as the goalies having a few bad games. It happens.

 

[Mess]

Injuries/covid woth the D haven't helped. But part of this is as simple as the goalies having a few bad games. It happens.

QofC has gone up as we are playing much better teams than the stats padding the Leafs do against Ottawa and Edmonton at home, and Leafs are blowing leads and looking worse against better competition.

This road test was said to be the gauge Leafs were going to use to see where they sat.