Do you actually believe what you are writing or just trolling? You are leaving out the fact we have 4 games in hand on DET. So lets say, DET wins all three against us, that pulls them to within 5 points... and we win only half our games in hand, that puts the difference back at 9 points with each team having played 45 games. So, with 37 games remaining, if the Leafs play .500 hockey the rest of the way, the Red Wings would have to play .635 hockey to finish ahead of us. For reference .635 hockey is something like 20W - 10L - 7T. If the Leafs play anything above .500, the Red Wings would have to play even better than that... considering their current record is exactly .500 and their GD is -27, that seems pretty unlikely to me. Add in if they lose even 1 of those games to the Leafs, it makes that .635 not enough... as well, if the Leafs win more than 2 of the games in hand, it again makes the .635 not enough. Keep in mind the ROW difference is also 7 (used for tie-breaker).
In this recent run of poor defensive play, the 6 game road trip, the Leafs record was 2-2-1... so .500. That is about as bad as they can play imo.
Looking forward to watching the games on Saturday, Feb 26 and Apr 26 to see how your long shot plays out. I'll pop back in to update my numbers if I can remember.