Dekes For Days
Registered User
- Sep 24, 2018
- 22,091
- 16,633
There still seem to be a lot of myths that persist about the Leafs in the playoffs over the past few years, so let's correct some things.
MYTH: The Leafs play badly in the playoffs.
ACTUAL:
The Leafs were the better 5v5 team in 15 out of their 19 playoff games.
The Leafs were the better overall team in 13 out of their 19 playoff games.
The Leafs were the better team in a series-winning number of games in each series.
The Leafs generated more 5v5 expected goals than their opponent in every series.
The Leafs generated more overall expected goals than their opponent in every series.
The Leafs scored more actual goals than their opponent in 2 out of the 3 series (the two most recent), and more overall.
We've struggled to break through the final barrier, certain aspects of our team (primarily goaltending) have struggled in the most critical moments, and there are obviously things we can improve (there always are), but we have played well overall throughout those series. We can be disappointed in the final outcome while still acknowledging that.
It's really abnormal to be 8-11 with no series wins despite a positive goal differential and expected goal differential throughout.
I know that these are not the victories we as fans want, but we will not be on the wrong side of conversion forever, so this is a good sign moving forward.
If we win or tie the goalie battle, we're likely to win against any opponent thrown at us.
MYTH: Our core 4 disappear in the playoffs.
ACTUAL:
Despite playing against teams that range from above average to best in the league defensively, our core 4 forwards put up a combined 57.15 xGF% in the playoffs, compared to 56.93 xGF% in the regular season. It's relatively normal for converted production to dip in the playoffs relative to regular season, but let's look at where the biggest drops are happening...
From regular season to playoffs, the core 4 forwards drop 14.99% in production.
From regular season to playoffs, the rest of the forwards drop 24.46% in production.
From regular season to playoffs, production from our defense drops 29.06%.
So in terms of where the production drops are coming from, our core 4 forwards are the least of our worries. Our biggest production drops are coming from our forward depth and defense.
Now, the big question is... why does the production drop? Which leads us to our final myth...
MYTH: Our difficulty with conversion is an us problem, not a result of the opponent's goalies playing well.
ACTUAL:
There seems to be a persistent belief that the drop in conversion is an us problem, even though we were the 5th best converting team over that timeframe in the regular season. I even understand where that belief comes from. But it's not really true. The goalies we have faced have objectively performed exceptionally over that time period, and most importantly, not just against us.
Over the past 3 playoffs, there are 38 goalies that have played 5+ playoff games.
The goalies the Leafs have faced have played in 20 series combined over that time, so the results reflect a wide variety of opponents, not just the Leafs.
Among those 38 goalies, the goalies the Leafs have faced rank 1st, 2nd, and 9th in total GSAx, 3rd, 4th, and 7th in GSAx/60, and 2nd, 5th, and 5th in SV%.
All 3 performed at a level over those 3 playoffs (with us only making up 3 of their 20 combined series) that surpass the pace of every Vezina-winner in that time.
Their combined trophy shelf holds multiple Cups, multiple Vezinas, a Smythe, Hart, Lindsay, multiple international gold medals and accolades, and an NHL playoff save record.
In our 19 playoff games between 2020-2022, the opponent's goalies saved 14.58 goals saved above expected.
If we were to take 5 games of Korpisalo's pace against all playoff opponents, 7 games of Price's pace against all playoff opponents, and 7 games of Vasilevsky's pace against all playoff opponents, they would have saved 14.58 goals saved above expected.
Our conversion drop matches EXACTLY with the average conversion drop those goalies have caused through the rest of their playoffs. We are not unique in how we've converted against these goalies. We are simply unique in the fact that we've faced a goalie like this every year in the first round.
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I know that there will be a group who won't read this, and will just default to a "we lost, nothing else matters, we suck" attitude, but hopefully those of us who like to understand what happened, why, and where we stand moving forward can find some value in this information, and we can stop perpetuating these myths and misconceptions in our discussions.
And hopefully our goaltending keeps up, so that we can either experience having the better-performing goalie for the first time in this core's existence, or even if we somehow run into this goaltending gauntlet again, match it. That's been the real missing ingredient the whole time.
MYTH: The Leafs play badly in the playoffs.
ACTUAL:
The Leafs were the better 5v5 team in 15 out of their 19 playoff games.
The Leafs were the better overall team in 13 out of their 19 playoff games.
The Leafs were the better team in a series-winning number of games in each series.
The Leafs generated more 5v5 expected goals than their opponent in every series.
The Leafs generated more overall expected goals than their opponent in every series.
The Leafs scored more actual goals than their opponent in 2 out of the 3 series (the two most recent), and more overall.
We've struggled to break through the final barrier, certain aspects of our team (primarily goaltending) have struggled in the most critical moments, and there are obviously things we can improve (there always are), but we have played well overall throughout those series. We can be disappointed in the final outcome while still acknowledging that.
It's really abnormal to be 8-11 with no series wins despite a positive goal differential and expected goal differential throughout.
I know that these are not the victories we as fans want, but we will not be on the wrong side of conversion forever, so this is a good sign moving forward.
If we win or tie the goalie battle, we're likely to win against any opponent thrown at us.
MYTH: Our core 4 disappear in the playoffs.
ACTUAL:
Despite playing against teams that range from above average to best in the league defensively, our core 4 forwards put up a combined 57.15 xGF% in the playoffs, compared to 56.93 xGF% in the regular season. It's relatively normal for converted production to dip in the playoffs relative to regular season, but let's look at where the biggest drops are happening...
From regular season to playoffs, the core 4 forwards drop 14.99% in production.
From regular season to playoffs, the rest of the forwards drop 24.46% in production.
From regular season to playoffs, production from our defense drops 29.06%.
So in terms of where the production drops are coming from, our core 4 forwards are the least of our worries. Our biggest production drops are coming from our forward depth and defense.
Now, the big question is... why does the production drop? Which leads us to our final myth...
MYTH: Our difficulty with conversion is an us problem, not a result of the opponent's goalies playing well.
ACTUAL:
There seems to be a persistent belief that the drop in conversion is an us problem, even though we were the 5th best converting team over that timeframe in the regular season. I even understand where that belief comes from. But it's not really true. The goalies we have faced have objectively performed exceptionally over that time period, and most importantly, not just against us.
Over the past 3 playoffs, there are 38 goalies that have played 5+ playoff games.
The goalies the Leafs have faced have played in 20 series combined over that time, so the results reflect a wide variety of opponents, not just the Leafs.
Among those 38 goalies, the goalies the Leafs have faced rank 1st, 2nd, and 9th in total GSAx, 3rd, 4th, and 7th in GSAx/60, and 2nd, 5th, and 5th in SV%.
All 3 performed at a level over those 3 playoffs (with us only making up 3 of their 20 combined series) that surpass the pace of every Vezina-winner in that time.
Their combined trophy shelf holds multiple Cups, multiple Vezinas, a Smythe, Hart, Lindsay, multiple international gold medals and accolades, and an NHL playoff save record.
In our 19 playoff games between 2020-2022, the opponent's goalies saved 14.58 goals saved above expected.
If we were to take 5 games of Korpisalo's pace against all playoff opponents, 7 games of Price's pace against all playoff opponents, and 7 games of Vasilevsky's pace against all playoff opponents, they would have saved 14.58 goals saved above expected.
Our conversion drop matches EXACTLY with the average conversion drop those goalies have caused through the rest of their playoffs. We are not unique in how we've converted against these goalies. We are simply unique in the fact that we've faced a goalie like this every year in the first round.
----------------------------------------
I know that there will be a group who won't read this, and will just default to a "we lost, nothing else matters, we suck" attitude, but hopefully those of us who like to understand what happened, why, and where we stand moving forward can find some value in this information, and we can stop perpetuating these myths and misconceptions in our discussions.
And hopefully our goaltending keeps up, so that we can either experience having the better-performing goalie for the first time in this core's existence, or even if we somehow run into this goaltending gauntlet again, match it. That's been the real missing ingredient the whole time.
