Post-Game Talk: Leafs lose in the Marathon

[BrannigansLaw]

Also, you knew we were losing this one after that Gudas goal.

 

[Superstar]

Also, you knew we were losing this one after that Gudas goal.

I thought it started downhill when they took their 13th too many men penalty up 5-1 and the Panthers scored...this team has got to stop doing that...it will kill them in the playoffs!

 

[notbias]

Nobody said the the sky is falling. What I've been saying is that this is just one in a pattern of these types of debacles, that have plagued the Leafs for years. Sportsnet released a stat today...

Since 2013, Toronto has blown 7 leads of 4 goals or greater in a game. No other team in the league has done that more than 4 times in that period, and the vast majority of have done it only 2-3 times. Blowing a massive lead like that is, by definition, a "Leafy" thing to do. And given that is spans two sets of core players, it can be defined as more of a cultural deficiency than a talent problem, fluke, etc.

Since 2013... no one cares, give me since 2016 since most of the team was not here before that.

Also, curious how many times each team had 4+ goal leads.

 

[therealkoho]

Who says they don't get pissed? I was agreeing with you that this isn't the end of the world and showing they are emotionally crushed like the poster you quoted was saying.

Ah OK my apologies

 

[ShaneFalco]

Win or lose lately I'm liking the push back they've been showing
Still think you need Boosh in there to help clear guys out and throw the big hit

 

[JSn0w93]

That gudas shorty was a killer.

But also we gave up 3 goals on the PK - not sure we've done that once all year. Bad time for it to break down.

I sure am glad we played the much better defenceman in Holl over Lyubushkin.

 

[34]

This loss is 100% on Jack Campbell.

 

[zeke]

I sure am glad we played the much better defenceman in Holl over Lyubushkin.

Ooooh a letter grade.

 

[JSn0w93]

Ooooh a letter grade.

A lot more than a letter grade. He was legitimately horrible last night. About the only response one could expect from someone boasting Justin Holl as being significantly better than any of our other options at this point.

He was awful in his net front coverage. I haven’t looked up the exact number but I’m sure he was on the ice for the majority of Florida’s goals especially on the pk. Holl is not the same player he was last year.

 

[zeke]

A lot more than a letter grade. He was legitimately horrible last night. About the only response one could expect from someone boasting Justin Holl as being significantly better than any of our other options at this point.

A "lot more"? Where?

 

[tmlfan98]

A "lot more"? Where?

Don't act like you didn't explain it yourself how bad they were.

Barkov (Line 1) 5v5 vs.

Brodie 4:58, 50.9xgf%, +0
Rielly 4:05, 50.3xgf%, +0

Muzzin 4:13, 66.9xgf%, +0
Holl 3:45, 74.3xgf%, +0

Liljegren 3:43, 40.8xgf%, +0
Giordano 3:31, 41.4xgf%, +0

Mo-TJ played the most against the top line and held their own. Muzz-Holl 2nd most and they got beat up pretty bad. Gio-Lilly were the least but not by much, and handled fla's top line better than anyone.


Bennett (Line 2) 5v5 vs:

Holl 5:43, 62.6xgf%, +0
Muzzin 5:13, 45.8xgf%, +0

Brodie 5:55, 56.9xgf%, +1
Rielly 3:39, 59.7xgf%, +1

Giordano 3:10, 58.2xgf%, +0
Liljegren 2:34, 100.0xgf%, +0

Muzz-Holl and Mo-TJ played similar amounts against the 2nd line and both got handled. Gio-Lilly didn't fare much better in lesser minutes.


Lundell (Line 3) 5v5 vs:

Liljegren 5:39, 100.0xgf%, +0
Giordano 5:06, 100.0xgf%, +0

Brodie 3:51, 67.4xgf%, +1
Rielly 3:43, 67.4xgf%, +1

Holl 1:37, 23.3xgf%, +0
Muzzin 1:31, 12.4xgf%, +0

The 3rd line was Gio-Lilly's prime matchup and they didn't do great.....though to be fair they didn't actually give up much defensively, it's just that the leafs had no offense in these minutes. Mo-Tj got the 2nd most minutes here and also did poorly. Muzz-Holl did well but in only a shift or two.


Luostarainen (Line 4) 5v5 vs:

Brodie 2:28, 57.0xgf%, +0
Rielly 2:12, 57.0xgf%, +0

Giordano 1:40, 0.0xgf%, +0
Liljegren 1:36, 0.0xgf%, +0

Muzzin 1:07, 0.0xgf%, +0
Holl 1:01, 0.0xgf%, +0

Not much to go on here but Mo-TJ got the extra shift or two against the 4th line.

Not only did you explain it yourself (and you were right), it even shows clearly that in the matchups vs Florida's top 2 lines not only were Muzzin and Holl "beat up pretty bad" and "handled" respectively, but individually Holl graded worse than Muzzin vs both of Florida's top 2 lines.

If you wanna hang your hat on Muzzin-Holl having a couple good shifts against Florida's 3rd line go ahead.

 

[zeke]

Don't act like you didn't explain it yourself how bad they were.



Not only did you explain it yourself (and you were right), it even shows clearly that in the matchups vs Florida's top 2 lines not only were Muzzin and Holl "beat up pretty bad" and "handled" respectively, but individually Holl graded worse than Muzzin vs both of Florida's top 2 lines.

If you wanna hang your hat on Muzzin-Holl having a couple good shifts against Florida's 3rd line go ahead.

How does this make Boosh better than Holl?

 

[tmlfan98]

How does this make Boosh better than Holl?

Boosh has a clear fit in the top 6 beside Rielly. He is from a chemistry perspective arguably the best D partner Rielly has ever had. Gio-Liljegren also seems like an untouchable pair. Brodie is essential, and Muzzin has struggled but when he's at the top of his game is arguably our most important defender, and needs game reps down the stretch before the playoffs to hopefully get back to the level he was at when healthy.

So you have Rielly-Boosh and Gio-Liljegren as 2 pairs that are rolling, Brodie is essential and Muzzin needs reps down the stretch. Holl is clearly the odd man out here, unless you want to advocate for flat out benching Jake Muzzin and making him the 7D, which I doubt anyone wants.

 

[zeke]

Boosh has a clear fit in the top 6 beside Rielly. He is from a chemistry perspective arguably the best D partner Rielly has ever had. Gio-Liljegren also seems like an untouchable pair. Brodie is essential, and Muzzin has struggled but when he's at the top of his game is arguably our most important defender, and needs game reps down the stretch before the playoffs to hopefully get back to the level he was at when healthy.

So you have Rielly-Boosh and Gio-Liljegren as 2 pairs that are rolling, Brodie is essential and Muzzin needs reps down the stretch. Holl is clearly the odd man out here, unless you want to advocate for flat out benching Jake Muzzin and making him the 7D, which I doubt anyone wants.

The Rielly-Boosh pair was bad tho.

The Leafs' PK sucked last night no doubt - but it's been great all year and nobody has played more PK minutes than Holl.

 

[JSn0w93]

A "lot more"? Where?

Well the paragraph under the letter grade that describes how awful Holl was in the game that you completely ignored if you want to be literal. What I meant was there is far more evidence than a letter grade to show how awful Holl was last night, like watching the game without a bias for any player. He was objectively AWFUL.

Some of your responses to myself and other posters about this subject are extremely snarky and defensive. It’s ok to be wrong once in a while. Justin Holl is not the hill you want to die on.

 

[zeke]

Well the paragraph under the letter grade that describes how awful Holl was in the game that you completely ignored if you want to be literal. What I meant was there is far more evidence than a letter grade to show how awful Holl was last night, like watching the game without a bias for any player. He was objectively AWFUL.

Some of your responses to myself and other posters about this subject are extremely snarky and defensive. It’s ok to be wrong once in a while. Justin Holl is not the hill you want to die on.

Yes the paragraph said "Holl bad Boosh better!!!" I know.

 

[tmlfan98]

The Rielly-Boosh pair was bad tho.

The Leafs' PK sucked last night no doubt - but it's been great all year and nobody has played more PK minutes than Holl.

If your view is so narrowminded that you only focus on expected goals you might think this way. Their high danger defensive impact tells a different story.

GDT: - Leafs @ Panthers

I'm a little shocked by the Panthers GDT... So used to see other fanbases belittling the Leafs, instead they are praising the team and and giving them a lot of credit. Quite the group of gentlemen over in South Florida. Yeah, I read through their GDT/PGT and they are really nice and humble. If...

hfboards.mandatory.com

You might want to re read these numbers I posted. When has a Morgan Rielly pair (other than Rielly-Boosh) ever had a positive impact defending in the high danger areas with non-sheltered zone starts? What Rielly-Boosh have been doing together so far is honestly eye opening compared to any other Morgan Rielly pair we've seen in the past.

 

[zeke]

If your view is so narrowminded that you only focus on expected goals you might think this way. Their high danger defensive impact tells a different story.

GDT: - Leafs @ Panthers

I'm a little shocked by the Panthers GDT... So used to see other fanbases belittling the Leafs, instead they are praising the team and and giving them a lot of credit. Quite the group of gentlemen over in South Florida. Yeah, I read through their GDT/PGT and they are really nice and humble. If...

hfboards.mandatory.com

You might want to re read these numbers I posted. When has a Morgan Rielly pair (other than Rielly-Boosh) ever had a positive impact defending in the high danger areas with non-sheltered zone starts? What Rielly-Boosh have been doing together so far is honestly eye opening compared to any other Morgan Rielly pair we've seen in the past.

Yeah I still don't know where you get your numbers.

Here's the high danger chances by pairing since we added boosh:

 

[IPS]

For anyone wondering if we need Muzzin or not:

October 13th - December 14th with Muzzin healthy: 2.5 GA / G, tied for 4th in the league.

January 15th - February 10th with Muzzin injured: 3.56 GA / G, 25th in the league

February 21st - April 4th with Muzzin injured: 3.82 GA / G, 28th in the league

When Muzzin is healthy he makes a major difference. Do not underestimate how important he is to this defense.

 

[tmlfan98]

Yeah I still don't know where you get your numbers.

Here's the high danger chances by pairing since we added boosh:


View attachment 527772

It's funny that you think those raw numbers prove your point but they actually prove mine.

Since Boosh was acquired, the Rielly-Boosh pair ranks 26th in HDCA/60 out of all defense pairs in the league that have played at least as many 5v5 mins as them in that time frame. If the Rielly-Boosh pair's HDCA/60 belonged to an NHL team, a 9.88 HDCA/60 would rank 6th best in the league.

What you have essentially just done is listed 5 defense pairs that have been great defensively according to HDCA/60 (funny how 3 of them have Boosh eh?), and the 2 pairs at the bottom are subpar defensively (and rank low in xHDGA/60). Rielly-Brodie and Rielly-Liljegren I think we can all agree are 2 pairs we don't want to see again.

And if I am to relate this graphic to your overall point that Holl should remain in the lineup, what is the takeaway supposed to be here? That Brodie-Holl shouldn't be split up? That wouldn't work out for the rest of the pairs because Gio, Rielly and Muzzin can't play the right side, and by keeping the Brodie-Holl pair together one of them would have to. Unless you think Muzzin shouldn't play, which would be absolutely ludicrous.

 

[IPS]

It's funny that you think those raw numbers prove your point but they actually prove mine.

Since Boosh was acquired, the Rielly-Boosh pair ranks 26th in HDCA/60 out of all defense pairs in the league that have played at least as many 5v5 mins as them in that time frame. If the Rielly-Boosh pair's HDCA/60 belonged to an NHL team, a 9.88 HDCA/60 would rank 6th best in the league.

What you have essentially just done is listed 5 defense pairs that have been great defensively according to HDCA/60 (funny how 3 of them have Boosh eh?), and the 2 pairs at the bottom are subpar defensively (and also happen to rank low according to xHDGA/60). Rielly-Brodie and Rielly-Liljegren I think we can all agree are 2 pairs we don't want to see again.

And if I am to relate this graphic to your overall point that Holl should remain in the lineup, what is the takeaway supposed to be here? That Brodie-Holl shouldn't be split up? That wouldn't work out for the rest of the pairs because Gio, Rielly and Muzzin can't play the right side, and by keeping the Brodie-Holl pair together one of them would have to. Unless you think Muzzin shouldn't play, which would be absolutely ludicrous.

From a pure eye test perspective, Boosh's abscence was very much noticed against Florida. They went hard in our crease all night long and the Rielly-Brodie pairing was struggling badly with it. Boosh's prescence absolutely makes a difference in this regard. I know I know, eye test is garbage and biased but whatever, it's all there to be seen.

 

[tmlfan98]

From a pure eye test perspective, Boosh's abscence was very much noticed against Florida. They went hard in our crease all night long and the Rielly-Brodie pairing was struggling badly with it. Boosh's prescence absolutely makes a difference in this regard. I know I know, eye test is garbage and biased but whatever, it's all there to be seen.

I agree, and the eye test also matches the numbers here. Boosh is a huge presence defending in the high danger areas like right in front of the net. He's been a huge help for Rielly and that pair should be back together soon.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

need Boosh in there to help clear guys out and throw the big hit

playoff hockey

 

[Once]

This loss is 100% on Jack Campbell.

This has to be sarcasm or tongue in cheek. Theres a plethora of factors that contribute to this loss and I can't say Jack is the reason. If anything, he was a big reason we got OT.

 

[zeke]

Spot on. And it's such a bloody waste of time that we keep trotting out these obvious truths to posters who have never played a team contact sport in their life. Yet still, they continually try to trump that experienced perspective with baffle-brains-with-bulls**t stats.

It's hilarious how important it is for you guys to believe that we haven't played contact sports.