Post-Game Talk: Leafs lose in the Marathon

[Drytoast]

I'm not emotionally hysterical. I'm calmly relating what I believe are the realities of this situation.

Your hope rides on randomness. Not on what you've seen with your own eyes, but randomness to even out what you've actually witnessed. Sure, randomness may come through for us. It seems to have worked against us, especially during the Montreal series last year. Perhaps, we're owed some positive randomness.

You seem to be continually ignoring what I'm saying. That this was psychologically damaging to the Leafs. Why that would be controversial is baffling.

Hey, I take some positives out of this. Marner has to feel good about his game vs. both Florida teams. Nylander and Blackwell, too. We need secondary scoring to win. Kallgren has to feel pretty good save for the Gudas goal. He showed well before that disaster of a goal.

We have seen the bench make error after error all season long with too many men penalties. We have seen our goaltending be horrific. We have seen this team blow big leads that don't always lead to losses like last night.

Do you honestly feel good inside about this teams chances this season? I don't. I realize it is possible they win a round. If you had a choice, would you rather have seen the Leafs put the hammer down and win 8-1 or lose 7-6 after being up 5-1? Answer is obvious. That is what I wanted as a fan. To see my team show killer instinct, not their old tried and true formula of collapsing a few weeks before the games really count.

Do you feel good about the goaltending situation? I don't. I realize it's possible Jack gets hot just like Michael Hutchinson could get hot. Again, that randomness is hard to pin your hopes on. Reality is a cruel mistress and she's calling out from the bedroom after last night.

If it were not random then make a bet in Vegas and have at it?

 

[zeke]

Barkov (Line 1) 5v5 vs.

Brodie 4:58, 50.9xgf%, +0
Rielly 4:05, 50.3xgf%, +0

Muzzin 4:13, 66.9xgf%, +0
Holl 3:45, 74.3xgf%, +0

Liljegren 3:43, 40.8xgf%, +0
Giordano 3:31, 41.4xgf%, +0

Mo-TJ played the most against the top line and held their own. Muzz-Holl 2nd most and they got beat up pretty bad. Gio-Lilly were the least but not by much, and handled fla's top line better than anyone.


Bennett (Line 2) 5v5 vs:

Holl 5:43, 62.6xgf%, +0
Muzzin 5:13, 45.8xgf%, +0

Brodie 5:55, 56.9xgf%, +1
Rielly 3:39, 59.7xgf%, +1

Giordano 3:10, 58.2xgf%, +0
Liljegren 2:34, 100.0xgf%, +0

Muzz-Holl and Mo-TJ played similar amounts against the 2nd line and both got handled. Gio-Lilly didn't fare much better in lesser minutes.


Lundell (Line 3) 5v5 vs:

Liljegren 5:39, 100.0xgf%, +0
Giordano 5:06, 100.0xgf%, +0

Brodie 3:51, 67.4xgf%, +1
Rielly 3:43, 67.4xgf%, +1

Holl 1:37, 23.3xgf%, +0
Muzzin 1:31, 12.4xgf%, +0

The 3rd line was Gio-Lilly's prime matchup and they didn't do great.....though to be fair they didn't actually give up much defensively, it's just that the leafs had no offense in these minutes. Mo-Tj got the 2nd most minutes here and also did poorly. Muzz-Holl did well but in only a shift or two.


Luostarainen (Line 4) 5v5 vs:

Brodie 2:28, 57.0xgf%, +0
Rielly 2:12, 57.0xgf%, +0

Giordano 1:40, 0.0xgf%, +0
Liljegren 1:36, 0.0xgf%, +0

Muzzin 1:07, 0.0xgf%, +0
Holl 1:01, 0.0xgf%, +0

Not much to go on here but Mo-TJ got the extra shift or two against the 4th line.

 

[therealkoho]

Holl and Spezza are going to be in the playoffs lineup aren't they?.

and hopefully Muzzin is not

 

[Throw More Waffles]

What do points matter at this stage of the season? We're a lock for the playoffs and aren't catching Florida. So this is all sealed. Getting "3 out of 4 points on a back to back" means literally nothing. If we were fighting for a playoff spot? Yes, 3 of 4 points is great. Is it October? Then yes. 3 of 4 points is great. But where the leafs are now? It means nothing.

But lets look at what does matter.

This team and its core have a reputation for being mentally fragile. For losing the big games when it counts. Blowing massive leads. Losing to zamboni drivers. On and on and on and on we could go. The team is 0 - 8 on elimination playoff games under this core. That number is almost comical. We were up 3-1 on the TWENTY-FOURTH PLACED TEAM and still lost 3 games in a row to lose the series.

Every year we hear the same lame excuses. "Oh, the core is young. They'll mature. They'll figure it out."

But then games like yesterday show that it's the same mentally fragile team. They BUCKLE under pressure.

And that's why the loss is so important. 3 out of 4 points is meaningless. But the loss shows that nothing has changed. Who in their right mind truly believes this team can hold leads (in games and series) come playoffs?

 

[francis246]

I don't think they are. When you hear the HC say his focus is on they played another good game? That's avoidance therapy right there. Put the fingers in the ears and pretend what happened didn't happen.

The Leafs are never angry. Ever. It is a group that it never feels like it is personal to them. How could it when you're always focusing on positives and spinning 5-1 leads that end in losses into playing a "good game"? How can you be angry if you're told you played "good" after losing a 4-goal lead? That Keefe comment was huge to me. No one else, probably, but it is indicative of what is rotten about this team.

Something not talked about is the Leafs failed to meet one of their goals. They thought they could win the division. Last night's loss all but ends that for them. Another coming up short message sent with that collapse last night. Would've preferred Keefe address they're angry they fell short of that and let a real chance to stay in the race go last night. Instead, the takeaway is they played another good game. Personally, I think he gets it. He also gets his team is fragile and he can't say what he really thinks for fear of the effect it might have. I think he should try it and see. Seems to work individually with Willy, perhaps it would work collectively if he could only bring himself to do it.

Only thing is I believe Keefe absolutely rips them a new asshole behind closed doors. He just never does it publicly which is fine. But as you can see from the doc series, keefe is tough on the guys. I have no doubt he is pissed they keep blowing leads.

 

[showtime8]

What do points matter at this stage of the season? We're a lock for the playoffs and aren't catching Florida. So this is all sealed. Getting "3 out of 4 points on a back to back" means literally nothing. If we were fighting for a playoff spot? Yes, 3 of 4 points is great. Is it October? Then yes. 3 of 4 points is great. But where the leafs are now? It means nothing.

But lets look at what does matter.

This team and its core have a reputation for being mentally fragile. For losing the big games when it counts. Blowing massive leads. Losing to zamboni drivers. On and on and on and on we could go. The team is 0 - 8 on elimination playoff games under this core. That number is almost comical. We were up 3-1 on the TWENTY-FOURTH PLACED TEAM and still lost 3 games in a row to lose the series.

Every year we hear the same lame excuses. "Oh, the core is young. They'll mature. They'll figure it out."

But then games like yesterday show that it's the same mentally fragile team. They BUCKLE under pressure.

And that's why the loss is so important. 3 out of 4 points is meaningless. But the loss shows that nothing has changed. Who in their right mind truly believes this team can hold leads (in games and series) come playoffs?

Really tough to argue this point in an overall context because frankly I agree with you.

But at the same time, if the games are meaningless now, we can't also say that they're buckling under pressure if it is meaningless.

I would say there are a lot of great things to look at in that game. They looked amazing for the first half and then looked gassed for the 2nd half of the game. There are many games where they look to take the easy way out and don't want to compete. Was that the case against Florida? IMO, a little bit. But they also had to recognize that Florida is the first in the East for a reason.

Also, we need to make sure that Holl and Muzzin are not a pair moving forward. It hasn't worked all season. Just give it up.

 

[Auston Marlander]

or they're unbelievably pissed off and are going to use this in Dallas and pound them unmercifully

Or they are professional hockey players that understand the other team is also really good and shit happens. They clearly didn't have legs in the 3rd.

 

[Tarmore]

Well losing sucked, especially in that fashion.

We all knew the Leafs would fade in the game as the team that played the night previous and the more rested team (Flordia) would come on. Couple that with Jack having played the night before and coming in to the game was a bad situation. Throw in the Muzzen factor and the resulting pairing mixing and it was another (I think small) factor in the game.

Three of four points and the way they were distributed was all I had hoped for coming into this two game set so I'm pretty happy with it.

AND for those that say this is what will happen in the playoffs if the Leafs face the Panthers. I think not. Both teams will be on equal footing, played the same games, same nights etc. Doesn't mean the Leafs can't cough-up a lead but it makes it less likely do to reasons I stated above.

What I would like to know is what was the injury to our back-up? If he can't go who else is there in the organization? I know pretty much everyone else is injured in the organization. Please don't say only Hutchison is left.

 

[Drytoast]

Nylander with 17 mins of ice time while tavares with 23 mins.

someone explain to me how the F is this ok....

Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't Keefe throw Nylander on the ice with Matthews and Marner anytime we had sustained pressure?

 

[81Leafs50]

If you are sitting at home and are thinking it is possible to shut down a team like that, you are naive about sports. FLA plays a frantic style that is hard to play steady systems against. LOOK up their schedule its all OT and SO's. They out score their problems. They dont play defense. its not sustainable.

 

[riffle]

If you are sitting at home and are thinking it is possible to shut down a team like that, you are naive about sports. FLA plays a frantic style that is hard to play steady systems against. LOOK up their schedule its all OT and SO's. They out score their problems. They dont play defense. its not sustainable.

Has been for 70 games.

Will it be when it really counts? I doubt it. The pressure on that team will be unbelievable especially if they're carrying the weight of the President's trophy. I hope they beat out Colorado and have to carry the weight of it.

Looks like the Panthers are on a collision course with the Caps in Round 1. Guess what happened to the Caps when they last played the Panthers? Should feel very familiar.

 

[ITM]

I felt great about Boston and Tampa. Not so great about Philly but it was a win.

The psychological impact is what I've been focused on and for good reason. Trust is hard to build in life and is lost in an instance. I will not argue the Leafs built up a lot of trust on this trip, however, they lost it all in what happened last night on a couple of key fronts. Can you really argue against that? Especially, when it comes to Jack?

We know this team can beat any team in this league. Could be Stanley Cup champions. COULD. What we know is this team wilts under the pressure of expectation in the playoffs.

Winning at Boston in the regular season is good. It is. It will be very different come playoff time. Will the good feeling of winning there carry over in the playoffs? Perhaps, but you want that in your favor to draw from rather than not, so I celebrate what happened there. The same applies in reverse to Florida. It was very bad to lose a 5-1 lead. Psychologically, this team has an uphill battle in Round 1 no matter who they face. Now, they carry the recent memory of getting drilled after being up 5-1 and their mentally fragile goalie just posted an .846. He plays well when he feels good and hot. You think Jack feels good about himself? Do you?

All of this stuff is self-evident. Again, I like to embrace what I see whether good, bad or ugly. Last night was ugly, but it's being airbrushed into something it wasn't. It was ugly and the psychological impact is what is most concerning as it was already going to be an uphill battle for this team.

Trust...Well...If the standard is impeccability, we're going to be let down by imperfect people and circumstances. I think it's known by a few people here that I take an informed position as best as I can, whatever the topic is, and often to my detraction - as though I care, lol. But...

To trust and where merit should be acknowledged...

I agree with you and others that there's one last test, one last labour, that our club has to get through in order to achieve that final instinct that cowers to nothing: no padded lead, no seemingly insurmountable gap - nothing.

But...I can't recall the composition of this club being better in my lifetime: 70s kid here with zip to show for joy in this club except: Sittler, MacDonald, Palmateer, Salming, Turnbull, Williams, Clark, Daoust, Frycer, Damphousse, Gilmour, Fuhr, Andreychuk - Borschevsky for a moment - Bohonos in fleeting promise - Thomas, Sundin, Berard <sob>, Joseph (until he betrayed us for my second favourite team, lol - and failed: YES!), and now Matthews,Marner, Nylander, etc...So I recall those names as a means for comparison to pass the evidentiary test: Do you recall the composition and the performance of a club more talented than this one?

Next. Remember the days when our terrible clubs would play the part of spoiler? Effectively, we might beat this or that team and like starved boa constrictors squeeze the moment for everything it was worth in order to look forward to the potential that maybe our club was turning around only to find ourselves mid-season once again with no real hope or identity?

We face those clubs now, like Philadelphia. But we beat Tampa and Florida with impunity. Sure, once. But in sequence. That preponderance of performance is evidence. It is earned trust that while not impeccable, not perfect, certainly better than before and headed toward real resiliency found in true contenders.

You mention psychological impact. Your suspicion might be right. We're not going to find out except over the next two or three games. Important to note who those games are against: Montreal, Buffalo, Dallas. Not the litmus for contention, but a test of internal resilience. So, perhaps even then, a larger sample size will be needed in the rematches against our main threats: Tampa and Florida.

Recent sample bias aside, our last three games in Florida have been encouraging on whole. Again, not perfect, but perfection shouldn't be expected. What should be expected is an effort that yields that reasonable expectation that we're moving in the right direction.

Given this last stretch, do you believe that the goal let in during overtime, erased everything before? I would think had the club lucked into a bounce and took two points rather than one, we might not be having this conversation.

Now, repeating the exercise of extrapolating wins vs losses and an aggregate of points in a playoffs round, nail-biting though it is: Do you take a 75% success rate as encouraging or discouraging? And to that end, acts of God and officials bias aside, is that enough to invest trust in the club as it has been performing? If not, what percentage are you looking for in order to give the benefit of the doubt mindful of who our opponents are?

(Long post - thanks for reading, riffle.)

 

[therealkoho]

I'm not joking I'm done with Jack Campbell and the rst of this shit bag crop of goalies

how many times do we have to watch the goaltending crumble before people realize it's a problem? they literally have the worst goaltending in the entire league the past 3 or 4 months but it's not costing them because the offense and the PP is elite so nobody says anything

what TF? do you really think anybody who actually follows this team doesn't understand that the goaltending needs to be, not just better but more consistent as well. Do you really think you're the only person in the whole of LeaFland that realizes this? Because people aren't obsessed by it and continually referring to it in seemingly every post whether it's relevant to the discussion or not, doesn't mean the Leafs don't need to improve it.

Do you think Leafs management doesn't understand this and that they possibly come to this site in order to figure out what the problem could be and maybe how they can fix it, which btw you aren't offering any kind of solution in order for them to find success, or do you perhaps know how they can fix it?

Here's the thing though, they have no way to improve the goaltending at this point in the season. What the Leafs have is what they have. All the complaining in the world is never going to change the reality of what they have, all the whining about the Mrazek contract isn't going to nor can it affect any of the change's needed now, so unless you want to just go all Marlie all the rest of the way, this is how it stays.

Saying the same old thing over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over ad nauseum can possibly get tedious.

 

[Fogelhund]

Before this Florida swing, most seemed happy to get two or three points. We managed to get three points, which is pretty solid.

The way we squandered getting four points was disappointing, and Kallgren's terrible goal seemed to kill our momentum, and it was clear we were tired as a group. The way we came back, and salvaged the point, was pretty solid. Those who like to complain on a regular basis, were given enough reason to complain, even if it's a thin thread. This TERRIBLE team, that needs a new coach, needs mostly new players, and a new GM, with a record of 6 wins, 1 OT Loss in the last seven, having beaten Florida, Boston and Tampa along the way, losing to Florida in OT. In that time, we've moved up to second in the division and fourth overall in the league, no matter how you measure it. This team has played 7 games in 11 nights, and managed 13 points, out of a possible 14 along the way. If you are mad, you should be ashamed of yourself. Jeez, some people.

Next, we have a stretch of teams that cause us troubles... the teams well below us.

 

[therealkoho]

I'll also add that this probably wasn't the best game to break Muzzin back in. I wonder if we'll experiment with Muzzin-Bush as our shutdown pairing. Or maybe try Muzzin-Brodie in that role.

I'm hoping that they'll just experiment with shutting Muzzin down and trying to figure out a way to get him a one way ticket on the ocean liner heading to Robidas Island.

 

[authentic]

LOL at the number of bodies jumping off the ledge in here. Good gawd first real stinker in a while and still got a point. Good for the boys actually, keeps them hungrier. Pooh happens. Next up.

This is the right attitude. I'll repeat, we're 8-1-2 against all the top playoff teams in the East despite our worst in the league goaltending.

 

[zeke]

One thing that bugged me from keefe's postgame - he said he was thinking of switching goalies anyways after that Gudas goal.

If he was willing to play Jack at the first sign of trouble for Kallgren this game, even with a big lead, then he obviously cared about winning this game more than he was worried about Jack not being able to play back to back and should have just started Jack.

Starting Kallgren against the best offense in the league on the backend of a back to back and 3 in 4 was kind of just conceding the game from the start.

 

[Fogelhund]

I'm not joking I'm done with Jack Campbell and the rst of this shit bag crop of goalies

how many times do we have to watch the goaltending crumble before people realize it's a problem? they literally have the worst goaltending in the entire league the past 3 or 4 months but it's not costing them because the offense and the PP is elite so nobody says anything

13 of 14 points obtained, in 7 games in 11 nights.

Moved up to 2nd in the division during that time, and 4th in the league no matter how you look at it.

But look, the sky is falling again.

 

[therealkoho]

Brodie moved back to the right side for the first time in awhile tonight after playing last night, and against two top teams.

I can understand the rust. And clearly he and Rielly were out of sync.

Also Muzzin clearly is going to have to get some games in to see if he actually can sharpen his game.

WIth 12 games left I think you have to give Muzzin-Holl a few more to see if they click again. I think Rielly-Brodie could find the groove again after some game action too.

Otherwise I try:

Rielly-Lyub
Gio-Lily
Muzzin-Brodie
Holl

I don't think you can break up Gio-Lily right now .. but you could try:

Rielly-Lyub
Gio-Brodie
Muzzin-Lily
Holl

These are just new pairings to experiment with to see if there's anything there.

you don't want to ruin the kid do you?

 

[WTFMAN99]

I was starting to believe a bit last night then the Leafs reminded me I would be stupid to do that lol.

Pessimism is key, with no expectations comes zero disappointment.

 

[riffle]

Trust...Well...If the standard is impeccability, we're going to be let down by imperfect people and circumstances. I think it's known by a few people here that I take an informed position as best as I can, whatever the topic is, and often to my detraction - as though I care, lol. But...

To trust and where merit should be acknowledged...

I agree with you and others that there's one last test, one last labour, that our club has to get through in order to achieve that final instinct that cowers to nothing: no padded lead, no seemingly insurmountable gap - nothing.

But...I can't recall the composition of this club being better in my lifetime: 70s kid here with zip to show for joy in this club except: Sittler, MacDonald, Palmateer, Salming, Turnbull, Williams, Clark, Daoust, Frycer, Damphousse, Gilmour, Fuhr, Andreychuk - Borschevsky for a moment - Bohonos in fleeting promise - Thomas, Sundin, Berard <sob>, Joseph (until he betrayed us for my second favourite team, lol - and failed: YES!), and now Matthews,Marner, Nylander, etc...So I recall those names as a means for comparison to pass the evidentiary test: Do you recall the composition and the performance of a club more talented than this one?

Next. Remember the days when our terrible clubs would play the part of spoiler? Effectively, we might beat this or that team and like starved boa constrictors squeeze the moment for everything it was worth in order to look forward to the potential that maybe our club was turning around only to find ourselves mid-season once again with no real hope or identity?

We face those clubs now, like Philadelphia. But we beat Tampa and Florida with impunity. Sure, once. But in sequence. That preponderance of performance is evidence. It is earned trust that while not impeccable, not perfect, certainly better than before and headed toward real resiliency found in true contenders.

You mention psychological impact. Your suspicion might be right. We're not going to find out except over the next two or three games. Important to note who those games are against: Montreal, Buffalo, Dallas. Not the litmus for contention, but a test of internal resilience. So, perhaps even then, a larger sample size will be needed in the rematches against our main threats: Tampa and Florida.

Recent sample bias aside, our last three games in Florida have been encouraging on whole. Again, not perfect, but perfection shouldn't be expected. What should be expected is an effort that yields that reasonable expectation that we're moving in the right direction.

Given this last stretch, do you believe that the goal let in during overtime, erased everything before? I would think had the club lucked into a bounce and took two points rather than one, we might not be having this conversation.

Now, repeating the exercise of extrapolating wins vs losses and an aggregate of points in a playoffs round, nail-biting though it is: Do you take a 75% success rate as encouraging or discouraging? And to that end, acts of God and officials bias aside, is that enough to invest trust in the club as it has been performing? If not, what percentage are you looking for in order to give the benefit of the doubt mindful of who are opponents are?

(Long post - thanks for reading, riffle.)

I read every word. You could've kept going and I would've kept reading. Always appreciate a rational dissertation even if I vehemently disagree with the conclusion.

Here's where I'm at regarding this as if it hasn't been made clear with all my posts regarding this. I'm big on psychology in life and in sport. What someone believes is critical to what they ultimately do. Belief is everything. It is very hard to believe certain things when evidence to the contrary exists despite positive lip speak being given in reply to actual evidence.

While some love analytics, and I do find some value there, to me, sports will always be about intangibles. Momentum is not a real thing would say the analytic crowd because you can't math it all out. Yet, you feel it. You know it exists despite not being able to quantify it. We saw it and felt it last night.

This Leafs team, while maybe the best you've ever seen, still does not carry any kind of aura to it that suggest anything would be different this time come crunch time. The Panthers carry an aura because they've shown they can rally when down. Can they do it when it really matters? We shall see, but I'd feel much more confident as a fan of their team based on that evidence than the repeated slips I've seen from the Leafs when they've had leads.

Shoot, you could look at the game at Colorado where we built up a nice lead and blew it in OT as another example of just not being able to sustain success. Colorado and Florida are the top teams in the league. Yes, you can point to Tampa and Boston, and I would get it, but the two best are those teams. We did beat Colorado and Florida at home. Who can forget we rocked the great Jonas Johansson 8-3?

What can the Leafs sustain over a 7-game series? We have a picture of how they can win and lose vs. top teams. I can see that. I can see BOTH, not just the failure. Taking the good and bad and extrapolating that to a 7-game series you have evidence the Leafs will show some good and some bad...and some heartbreak. History is littered with heartbreak with this organization especially under Keefe and Dubas with losing two playoff series in deciding games to two teams that had no business beating us.

I think this quote by Maya Angelou is germane to this discussion. I will never forget how the Leafs have made me feel and neither will you. Last night tapped into what they always make us feel, in the end. Was last night a foreshadowing? I guess we'll see, but I "feel" last night was far more damaging than most want to let on.

 

[therealkoho]

Muzzin is washed. I can't believe Keefe put him out in OT, literally our worst option in that format.

Holl is not THIS bad guys. Muzzin makes every partner he plays with worse.

he's taken over the position and responsibilities of the last Jake we had on defense

 

[therealkoho]

Nah. They were missing Ekblad, who is due back in time for round 1 and is better than any defenceman on either team.

that was so "unfortunate" for them losing Ekblad for the balance of the regular season, just in time to add Giroux's contract

Had the Leafs done this can you imagine the screaming coming from other NHL cities. They know it's such a nudge nudge wink wink thing that they wouldn't even discuss it at the GM's meetings that just occured.

 

[Captain14]

We can talk all day about how Holl and JT are killing this team is some form or another.
However, come playoff time, Sheldon Keefe could prove to be our biggest liability.
We shall see if he truly wants to put this team in the best position to succeed based on his starting lineups, line combinations and defensive pairings.

 

[Clark4Ever]

Blowing a 5-1 lead is inexcusable under any circumstances.

That being said, I think there are far more positives to take away from our recent stretch of games against top teams in the conference.

Our defence pairings were noticeably out of sync last night. I think Holl should sit and Keefe should roll with:

Rielly-Lyubushkin
Muzzin-Brodie
Giordano-Liljegren

or

Rielly-Lyubushkin
Giordano-Brodie
Muzzin-Liljegren