I hope I don't break the rules and/or get infracted for this, but this is what I'm reading in the Toronto Star today. Of particular note is whether Omicron is significantly less lethal. As far as I can tell, that really isn't known yet, and it is very worrisome.
I would prefer that teams with COVID outbreaks just don't play or practice until the outbreak clears.
I expect many, many will disagree with me - that's fine. I respect that. I'm not expecting to persuade anyone, but would just like to offer my opinion.
The science table advising Premier Doug Ford says more “circuit breaker” measures are needed in addition to ramped up COVID-19 booster shots to slow the speedy spread of the new Omicron variant.
By Rob FergusonQueen's Park Bureau
Robert BenzieQueen's Park Bureau Chief
Thu., Dec. 16, 2021 3 min. read
The science table advising Premier Doug Ford says more “circuit breaker” measures are needed in addition to ramped up COVID-19 booster shots to slow the speedy spread of the new Omicron variant in Ontario.
“Waiting to take action means waiting until it’s too late to take action,” Steini Brown, co-chair of the science table and dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto, said Thursday in presenting new modelling for a fraught festive season and beyond.
“Increasing vaccination is not enough to slow this wave,” he added, noting each person infected with Omicron is spreading it to six others. “Waiting for more information will eliminate the opportunity for action.”
The warnings came as Ontario reported 2,421 new daily cases, 600 higher than the previous day and double the level posted last Thursday.
The modelling was presented to Ford’s cabinet Wednesday before the government announced anyone over 18 can get a booster shot starting Monday, providing it’s at least 84 days after their second dose — a waiting period that was previously 168 days.
As well, the province is limiting venues with more than 1,000 seats such as sports stadiums, arenas and theatres to 50 per cent capacity starting on Saturday, with masking requirements to be more strictly enforced.
More public health measures such as capacity limits in other settings such as restaurants and gyms and improved masking habits would help “buy time” for booster shots to take hold, Brown said.
“I recognize these are not easy decisions,” added Brown. “Anything we can do to reduce crowded indoor places is helpful.”
The government said it will continue to review trends and data and “act as necessary.”
Ford did not rule out more public health measures at a news conference Wednesday but indicated lockdowns are not anticipated. Officials say schools will remain open.
Despite numerous reports that Omicron could be less severe than the Delta strain it is rapidly replacing, Brown insisted that is not true and forecast hospital and intensive care unit occupancy will rise quickly toward the end of the month and could reach “unsustainable levels” in January.
“It does cause severe disease ... it’s not just a case of the sniffles,” said Brown, who at another point in the briefing said “the severity of Omicron is unclear.”
He said hospitalizations for Omicron in Denmark have been 0.81 per cent of cases, versus 0.75 per cent for other strains, a similar rate.
Those Omicron admissions are “not the sniffles,” he added. In actual numbers, there were 28 hospitalizations from 3,437 Omicron cases and 665 hospitalizations for 88,940 cases of other strains.
“Recent data from South Africa suggesting about 25 per cent less severity cannot be extrapolated to northern, high-income countries due to differences in population age and degree of immunity/previous infection,” the modelling presentation cautioned.
“A steep rise in cases in South Africa during the current Omicron wave is followed by a steep rise in hospitalizations, while the rise in deaths currently is less steep than in previous waves.”
Hospitalizations in Ontario have risen almost 27 per cent in the last four weeks and intensive care unit occupancy by 26 per cent, according to science table statistics.
“We are already trending up and we have not yet seen the impact of Omicron,” said Brown, predicting the new strain could easily surpass Ontario’s highest case levels of the pandemic, when the number of new infections reported daily approached 5,000.
Without any additional public health measures, the daily case counts could hit 10,000 daily by early January, the science table warned. However, that projection did not account for the actions taken Wednesday to lower the age eligibility for booster shots and capacity limits at arenas and other large venues.
Ontario’s high vaccination levels will also help, with two doses providing good protection from severe illness and boosters further improving that.
A spokeswoman for Health Minister Christine Elliott said the modelling does not take into account the accelerated booster shot program — which aims to double or triple vaccination levels to 200,000 or 300,000 daily — and the capacity limits in large venues.
“Today’s modelling confirmed that accelerating the booster campaign, as we are, will help blunt the Omicron wave,” said Alexandra Hilkene.
“While the province’s ICUs continue to remain stable, we expect the number of admissions to rise in the coming weeks as Omicron spreads, particularly among the unvaccinated.”
There are now 165 COVID patients in intensive care units, about 600 beds immediately available and “surge capacity” for almost 500 more, Hilkene added.