pth2
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- Jan 7, 2018
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I know on both counts... I could've made specific proposals but that usually leads to backlash when the other teams fans don't like the idea.
Value of: Large number of draft picks in 3d, 4th rounds
- Thread starter pth2
- Start date
Draft picks rarely have tremendous value in trade except as tools to incentivize a swap of picks that are not very far apart. So an extra third rounder you have lying around may have value to help you move up a couple of spots in the second, to swap your picks. For instance, "you have a pick five spots ahead of me and there's a player I really want. I'll give you my pick in the next round to swap our picks in this round." That pick isn't valueless, but it's really only helped you to advance five spots in the draft. So it has value... but not a ton of value.
The issue is that as you get later in the draft, picks start to dramatically lose their value unless, again, it is as part of a deal to swap similar picks one round earlier. Everyone understands how unlikely it is that players taken in the third or fourth rounds will be NHL players.
The idea of combining three or four or five picks in the third and four rounds to get into the mid-second round? I don't see it. That is a dramatic jump, and that's pretty rare. The diminishing returns on draft slots is precipitous. The picks being discussed here are in the long shot territory.
What I think they will try to do is take those 14 picks and swing multiple trades where they deal a pick to swap earlier picks. Maybe do that three or four times. They might get into the very late second with their own third plus Anaheim's third. Pay a third to swap picks a few spots apart. The gap might be enough that it would take another third to get that one done.
Dealing an entire slate of picks in one big trade to get into the top 45 or 50, though? Don't see it. Those high picks are really valuable. A bunch of late picks doesn't get you there.
Where they could do more is if it's not just those later picks in play. If that Edmonton second rounder was in play, there would be more they could do with a package.
The issue is that as you get later in the draft, picks start to dramatically lose their value unless, again, it is as part of a deal to swap similar picks one round earlier. Everyone understands how unlikely it is that players taken in the third or fourth rounds will be NHL players.
The idea of combining three or four or five picks in the third and four rounds to get into the mid-second round? I don't see it. That is a dramatic jump, and that's pretty rare. The diminishing returns on draft slots is precipitous. The picks being discussed here are in the long shot territory.
What I think they will try to do is take those 14 picks and swing multiple trades where they deal a pick to swap earlier picks. Maybe do that three or four times. They might get into the very late second with their own third plus Anaheim's third. Pay a third to swap picks a few spots apart. The gap might be enough that it would take another third to get that one done.
Dealing an entire slate of picks in one big trade to get into the top 45 or 50, though? Don't see it. Those high picks are really valuable. A bunch of late picks doesn't get you there.
Where they could do more is if it's not just those later picks in play. If that Edmonton second rounder was in play, there would be more they could do with a package.
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pth2
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I know. I'm just thinking a team like Toronto or Colorado, with very few picks, might be open to a big move if there's no one on the board that tickles their fancy.
This is like a trade of players where you try to make two dimes and a nickel for a quarter sound like it's even.
Yet it's not even, because that one star on the other side of the ledger is disproportionately more valuable. Same thing. A bunch of quantity doesn't eventually get you quality if you keep adding more quantity to the pile of stuff on the other side of the scales.
Fourth through seventh rounders are essentially valueless. Throw your scout a bone, draft Chuck McChuckster, draft a guy you know is ineligible... it sort of doesn't matter because these days the scouting is so good that late rounds don't produce many gems anymore. Players don't slip through the cracks like they did in the early 90s all the time.
Third gets interesting only insofar as you can jump around within the round, and the third produces a player from time to time. Enough to take it seriously, at least.
Yet in the second round, especially the upper half of the second round, those are going to be NHL players. Trying to trade a bunch of valueless picks for likely NHL players is a tough sell.
Extra Texture
A new career
The thing about Matheson is that, while he may be overpaid and on far too long a deal (nice one, Tallon) in the right system he can be pretty damn good. Like last year in Pittsburgh he was the single best "playmaking" dman we had. Despite accruing alot fewer points than Letang. Average defensively , but man I lost count of the number of times he took the puck in the O-zone, turned on his pretty astounding skating ability, and kind of slashed his way through the other team to create a high danger chance.
I'm just saying, because of the contract and getting moved by Florida, people think he's a cap dump. But if the Pens were not loaded up on the left side with Dumoulin/Pettersson/Matheson, I wouldn't even consider parting with him given the year he just had.
But if the Pens are going to trim any cap off their current team, that's the place to cut it. And if that means we lose a more valued D-man, i'd be willing if it means using that money elsewhere.
edit: I originally wrote "average offensively"......stupid typing, that's the one dept where he is anything but average
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Kobe Armstrong
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- Jul 26, 2011
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He would look pretty good with a guy like Savard on the 2nd pair. Now we just need two first pairing guys!
I love Romanov but I'm not sold on him being a cornerstone yet. He's getting the Victor Mete treatment because our defense is atrocious, but he seems like he will be a good middle pairing player.
Edmundson-Petry
Matheson-Savard
Romanov-Barron
Harris/Wideman
Still probably a bottom 5 defense in the league and that's with Petry in the lineup
pth2
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We don't have the cap room for Matheson unless Petry gets shipped out with little to no money returning.
This is a draft that could have a lots of gems in later round.
I hope they don't trade too many pick and use them instead.
Who care if we can't sign them all in 1-2-3 years.
Whoever bring the 50 limits contract, obviously did not pay attention in the last 10 years. It's pretty easy to deal with that limit...espacially when you are rebuilding and have many expiring contract comming in the next few years.
I hope they don't trade too many pick and use them instead.
Who care if we can't sign them all in 1-2-3 years.
Whoever bring the 50 limits contract, obviously did not pay attention in the last 10 years. It's pretty easy to deal with that limit...espacially when you are rebuilding and have many expiring contract comming in the next few years.
Jared Dunn
Registered User
He has to refuse for this scenario, my understanding is Habs brass haven't decided if they'll even offer
Colorado has a shitty record of drafting outside top 10 so I'm pretty sure they won't be interested
Djp
Registered User
Montreal could use Ana 3rd+ EDM 2nd and move up some .
many teams when they have more than 4 3rd-7th will use them intentionally on college bound/USHL or europe players. if any of them make the NHL it won’t be for 5 yrs.
many teams when they have more than 4 3rd-7th will use them intentionally on college bound/USHL or europe players. if any of them make the NHL it won’t be for 5 yrs.
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