Lane Hutson Burgeoning Star Watch

[OG Eberle]

Most hated prospect since PK Subban.

Keep doing your thang, Lane.

He's getting collateral damage cause there are more than a handful of posters in this thread actively arguing how he's on the same level as Celebrini and that assists/goals are worth the same, hence he's unreal. EDIT: Also, actively comparing him to Hughes and Makar...

Unfortunate, as its actually detracting from what is a great rookie season and actual discussion about him vs the homer/troll level takes from some of his vocal fans

 

[amnesiac]

Stolarz and Talbot both still rank top 15 this year on new teams tho?

for now sure. You also had both BOS goalies in the top 15 last season. So thats 8 goalies amongst 4 teams who played in defensive systems who were in the top 15 for Goals saved above expected (not GAAE, my bad)..... Thats obviously not a coincidence.

Hence advanced stats can be very subjective, jsut as SV% or GAA or +/- is.

I think fans of bad teams overestimate how much moving teams helps players production.

Unless he goes to a team that gives him more PP ice time, I don't think it would help his production much at all. His overall ice time would almost certainly drop significantly on any other teams, as well as their willingness to let him freewheel out there (especially the way he was in october).

I also think you're struggling to seperate individual generation with on ice generation. Hutson creates more individual plays, but he's also requiring a lot of possession and usage to create that. Sometimes a simple keep in, cycle game, or breakout pass is better offense than trying to beat a guy at the blueline. If you notice, as Hutson stopped trying to do everything everytime he got the puck, his on ice generation improved quite a bit, as did his defensive results as he got caught out of position less and less.

Fair points. I think he'll improve upon those areas and round out his game to adapt to the NHL level. Hes always said to have a very high IQ in NCAA whether it was praise from his teammates like Celebrini or his coaches. It is indeed a different game, and reminds a bit of Subban when he started his career in Montreal. Was very high risk, and changed his game for the better after a few years.

I think trying to get "bigger" may do more harm than good to hutson's game.

He'll never be a physical presence, but if he loses shiftiness and elusiveness while trying to add size, it could take away from the things that seperate him from others offensively

possibly, but gaining 10 lbs I dont think would harm him at all. If he were 5'10 173 lbs that would still be considered quite small.

 

[dgibb10]

for now sure. You also had both BOS goalies in the top 15 last season. So thats 8 goalies amongst 4 teams who played in defensive systems who were in the top 15 for Goals saved above expected (not GAAE, my bad)..... Thats obviously not a coincidence.

Hence advanced stats can be very subjective, jsut as SV% or GAA or +/- is.



Fair points. I think he'll improve upon those areas and round out his game to adapt to the NHL level. Hes always said to have a very high IQ in NCAA whether it was praise from his teammates like Celebrini or his coaches. It is indeed a different game, and reminds a bit of Subban when he started his career in Montreal. Was very high risk, and changed his game for the better after a few years.


possibly, but gaining 10 lbs I dont think would harm him at all. If he were 5'10 173 lbs that would still be considered quite small.

It is important to look for outliers I agree, which you'd tend to see over larger sample sizes.

I'm not sure the bruins were anything more than having 2 really good goalies.

The kings for example have a system that isn't at all similar to any other and is so focused on preventing chances. 100% something that inflates goalie metrics.

I don't think the panthers are. I just think Stolarz had a really good season, simple as that, and he's kept it going.

In WPG Hellebuyuck is him, and sometimes backup goalies go on runs. Cayden Primeau also had a great year in a small sample size for example. That's what happens with goalies.


In terms of Hutson I don't think we're talking about such an outlier. At the beginning of the year from my view he was trying to do WAY too much with the puck, virtually every time he got it. It stifled the flow of the offense and limited how many chances they got, and it's where the "headfakes/60" jokes come from

He's played more within the flow of an offense lately, and his on ice numbers have improved significantly. Now he picks his spots better, making him less predictable, harder to defend, and keeps his teammates involved in the flow. Also leads to him getting caught out of position less. In this way I think his analytics are PERFECT for helping illustrate what may get missed on the eye test. If you're watching him dance around the ozone on each shift, you may give him a lot more credit, even if the better move may have been to just cycle the puck or make a quick pass. And he deserves significant credit for adjusting to what wasn't working.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

It is important to look for outliers I agree, which you'd tend to see over larger sample sizes.

I'm not sure the bruins were anything more than having 2 really good goalies.

The kings for example have a system that isn't at all similar to any other and is so focused on preventing chances. 100% something that inflates goalie metrics.

I don't think the panthers are. I just think Stolarz had a really good season, simple as that, and he's kept it going.

In WPG Hellebuyuck is him, and sometimes backup goalies go on runs. Cayden Primeau also had a great year in a small sample size for example. That's what happens with goalies.


In terms of Hutson I don't think we're talking about such an outlier. At the beginning of the year from my view he was trying to do WAY too much with the puck, virtually every time he got it. It stifled the flow of the offense and limited how many chances they got, and it's where the "headfakes/60" jokes come from

He's played more within the flow of an offense lately, and his on ice numbers have improved significantly. Now he picks his spots better, making him less predictable, harder to defend, and keeps his teammates involved in the flow. Also leads to him getting caught out of position less. In this way I think his analytics are PERFECT for helping illustrate what may get missed on the eye test. If you're watching him dance around the ozone on each shift, you may give him a lot more credit, even if the better move may have been to just cycle the puck or make a quick pass. And he deserves significant credit for adjusting to what wasn't working.

Unfortunately, when he's on the ice with Anderson, Gallagher, and Dvorak he pretty much has to be the one trying to create offense.

 

[dgibb10]

Unfortunately, when he's on the ice with Anderson, Gallagher, and Dvorak he pretty much has to be the one trying to create offense.

I still think you have to play within the flow for a couple reasons.

A) Hutson isn't a big shooting threat, so regardless you end up relying on those guys anyway
B) You gotta give the defense something to think about. If all they have to do it keep hutson outside and then prevent a guy from being an open shooting threat, it's real easy to defend. Less predictable opens up a lot more for Hutson
C) keeps these guys engaged. The only thing worse than Josh Anderson is a disengaged josh anderson as hutson dances around.
D) the goal should be to build habits and skills that translate to when you are playing on a good team.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

I still think you have to play within the flow for a couple reasons.

A) Hutson isn't a big shooting threat, so regardless you end up relying on those guys anyway
B) You gotta give the defense something to think about. If all they have to do it keep hutson outside and then prevent a guy from being an open shooting threat, it's real easy to defend. Less predictable opens up a lot more for Hutson
C) keeps these guys engaged. The only thing worse than Josh Anderson is a disengaged josh anderson as hutson dances around.
D) the goal should be to build habits and skills that translate to when you are playing on a good team.

I don't disagree, but it's not like Hutson isn't still trying to use them. He set up Dvorak with a shot from the high slot, fed him a cross ice dime that he fumbled, and backhand sauced another dime to Anderson in the slot which he couldn't bury.

When he makes those passes he also keeps his feet moving for a possible give and go, but it's typically only guys like Suzuki and Caufield who have the offensive IQ to recognize that opportunity unfortunately.

 

[dgibb10]

I don't disagree, but it's not like Hutson isn't still trying to use them. He set up Dvorak with a shot from the high slot, fed him a cross ice dime that he fumbled, and backhand sauced another dime to Anderson in the slot which he couldn't bury.

When he makes those passes he also keeps his feet moving for a possible give and go, but it's typically only guys like Suzuki and Caufield who have the offensive IQ to recognize that opportunity unfortunately.

I definitely agree they aren't good, but I do think they catch a bit too much flak for every single time they fail to turn a good opportunity into a goal. Not every quality chance results in a goal, and sometimes it feels like the assumption is that for Hutson, every time he makes a good play he "deserves" a point.

Anyway the important point is that analytics aren't voodoo, and that Hutson has been much better lately at simplifying things to make him a much more effective player.

And that doing everything yourself doesn't necessarily make you more effective offensively than just being efficient and simple

(I caught a TON of flak from people calling me a hater for saying Hutson needed to do exactly these things if he wanted to help his team generate more offensively and prevent stuff defensively) when his chance generation was in the toilet in october.

 

[SallyBalls]

I think he's got poor man Quinn Hughes upside. Not as good defensively, but 70+ points is doable.

Quinn was coniderably poorer defensively than Lane in his rookie year.