Speculation: LA Kings News, Rumors, Roster Thread part VII

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It shows that he's "expected" to have scored an extra 9 or 10 goals based on the shots he's taken.

I don't care about any of that. That line is great.
Are Moore's numbers affected / skewed by the first 2 months, playing on the black hole, line 3? I think he had 1 goal, 1 assist in 20 games there, before being elevated...kudos to Todd for moving him up, honestly.
 
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I don't disagree with anything you're saying HOWEVER what I was getting at is that the team stat is just the individual stats all added up.

The Kings are -40 whatever goals vs expected... but Moore, Arvidsson and Roy are -20 combined (all situations)

Context needs to be added in multiple directions for it to properly be "context"
I agree 100%. I do think, looking at the team stat though, it illustrates that the Kings are not good at finishing. If you start listing the players based on their shooting ability, you'll see a sharp drop off very quickly.

AA - He has a very fast release and accurate shot. If he's not No. 1, he's No. 2.
Kaliyev - He's still refining his game, but he was considered the second best shooter from the 2019 class after Caufield. Nothing has changed.
Arvidsson - His mixture of skill and confidence is great. He's had a history of being a legitimate scoring threat, but he has had consistency issues the past few seasons.
Kempe - His confidence has gone up substantially this season. However, it's still early to say if this is a "new Kempe" or if he'll revert back to averaging 14 goals a season (he had 53 goals the previous four full seasons combined)
Kopitar - As always, he never shoots enough, even if he has more talent than Arvidsson and Kempe.

After Kopitar, there's a tier of players who are more muckers whose scoring acumen is more from hard work. This doesn't make them BAD players, but that they will in general create a lot more chances than they can finish. This includes Danault, Moore, and Iafallo when he's not slumping.

Then there are forwards who you typically don't expect to score, but it's always a nice bonus: Grundstrom, Lemieux, Lizotte, Brown, etc.

Then there's a tier of skilled prospects, such as Vilardi and Byfield, who we've seen their ability to shoot, but this has been such an up-and-down season, we can't set any expectation.

On defense, it gets much worse as far as scoring output. Durzi is our most offensive-minded blueliner. But he hasn't scored a goal in almost a month (last was 3/26). I still like Spence's overall game and intelligence more, and he scored last week. But what expectations are we putting on these rookie defensemen as far as goals? Roy is not a finisher. Maatta isn't a finisher. Bjornfot isn't a finisher. I would even say Doughty isn't a finisher. He's immensely talented, but he's often had a very hard time getting pucks through traffic, which is a requisite to defensemen scoring goals.

So, yes additional context in all directions is important. But it coincides with what we're seeing: the team creates opportunities and chances, but they don't finish.
 
Are Moore's numbers affected by the first 2 months, playing on the black hole, line 3? I think he had 1 goal, 1 assist in 20 games there, before being elevated...kudos to Todd for moving him up, honestly.
Yes, by 1/29, he had already accrued nearly 7 goals below expected.

 
I found this interesting from ESPN Power Rankings:

The Kings are a mix of veterans from the Stanley Cup years and a collection of high draft picks. This is reflected by the roster, featuring the most games played from players on entry-level contracts, as well as the fifth-most games played by players age 34 and above.
 
For fourth line wing, Grundstrom fits better than Kupari. But Kupari can play C and gets the spot almost by default at this point. If you’re primarily looking for that position to not get scored on, then Kupari is fractionally safer than Byfield followed by Vilardi.

I think JAD might be the best organizational option for 4C. But afaik he’s on the reign and not easy to recall. JAD plus Lemieux and Grundstrom looks like a solid fourth line. They could easily play +1 one game and -1 the next, and never cost you a win, regular season or playoffs vs Edmonton’s bottom six.

And I thought rosters expanded after the TDL, plus you have black aces. Having Kaliyev, Byfield and Vilardi as the most experienced black aces in the history of the nhl would be the most kings way to utilize the deepest pipeline in the universe.
 
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Expected goals is a misleading name for stat (as it's attempted use in this thread demonstrates), as one of the creators behind an expected goal model has articulated:

My research has led me to different conclusions on the predictive power of expected goals, but before I get into that, I want to address my issue with this line of thinking. A part of me wishes that we had stuck to calling expected goal models “Shot Quality” models instead, because I think that the term “Expected Goals” implies that these models are solely predictive in nature, which isn’t necessarily the case. Even if expected goal shares were completely useless for predicting future goals at the team levels, expected goals would still be extremely useful for describing past events and telling us which teams relied heavily on goaltending and shooting prowess, or were weighed down by poor shooting and goaltending, and even which shots the goaltender deserved most of the blame for, so I disagree with the premise that hockey fans should stop using expected goals at the team level if they are not as predictive as Corsi.

 
Spence sure is playing well. Still though, I wouldn't want to trade Durzi to make sure Spence has a spot next season. Durzi is one of a kind on our D, aka, willing to stop another team from making targeted runs when games get chippy. It's going to be an interesting off season. Plus, Faber staying for his Junior season maybe isn't such a bad thing.
 
Spence sure is playing well. Still though, I wouldn't want to trade Durzi to make sure Spence has a spot next season. Durzi is one of a kind on our D, aka, willing to stop another team from making targeted runs when games get chippy. It's going to be an interesting off season. Plus, Faber staying for his Junior season maybe isn't such a bad thing.
I just don’t see how Spence isn’t in LA next year. Yes he will only be a second year pro with around 30 games NHL experience (depending on how far they go) , and yes he is only 5’10, but the guy is one of the 6 best defenders in the organization and has shown an ability to create offensive results for a team that often struggles to score goals. And this is a high IQ player too, just wait until the game slows down for him as he gains experience. NHL teams dream of having a guy like that on an ELC for 2 years.

Spence has looked better in his first 20 NHL games than any prospect that Blake has selected since he’s been GM. What a steal in round 4.
 
Why Bjornfot? That would leave only Anderson and Moverare on the left side.
Bjornfot is really young and is going to be a great player and leader for the Kings in the future.
I see him being a piece that would be moved in a JC/Provorov deal.
 
I don’t know what has happened to Toby, other than Iafallo he has probably fallen off the most of anyone from last year.

He has been passed over by rookies and a guy brought in from an awful team for a 7th a few weeks ago.

From making the team out of camp in D+1 to being the 7th dman despite no Doughty, Anderson or Walker at the end of his D+3. It’s far from ideal.

The Kings have done an overall good job with developing dman but Toby has been one guy who is kind of falling through the cracks right now.
 
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I just don’t see how Spence isn’t in LA next year. Yes he will only be a second year pro with around 30 games NHL experience (depending on how far they go) , and yes he is only 5’10, but the guy is one of the 6 best defenders in the organization and has shown an ability to create offensive results for a team that often struggles to score goals. And this is a high IQ player too, just wait until the game slows down for him as he gains experience. NHL teams dream of having a guy like that on an ELC for 2 years.

Spence has looked better in his first 20 NHL games than any prospect that Blake has selected since he’s been GM. What a steal in round 4.
Sooooooooooo
Anderson-Doughty
Roy-Durzi
Bjornfot-Spence
Walker
 
I don’t know what has happened to Toby, other than Iafallo he has probably fallen off the most of anyone from last year.

He has been passed over by rookies and a guy brought in from an awful team for a 7th a few weeks ago.

From making the team out of camp in D+1 to being the 7th dman despite no Doughty, Anderson or Walker at the end of his D+3. It’s far from ideal.

The Kings have done an overall good job with developing dman but Toby has been one guy who is kind of falling through the cracks right now.
Yea he was playing really well then got injured. Id have to guess he rushed back and isnt 100%. He was playing really poorly since his return to the lineup. But isnt he like 20 years old? I think hell be fine in the long run.
 
Sooooooooooo
Anderson-Doughty
Roy-Durzi
Bjornfot-Spence
Walker

Too small, too young, too much money in the pressbox. Throw in unbalanced and you’re more likely to see Bigfoot.

Anderson Doughty seems a lock.

Roy is a lock for second pair and I don’t see him forced to his offside without injuries and zero offensive ability. Barring a trade, I think you see Walker start as Roy’s partner.

Bottom two will be whatever comes up on Todd’s dart board day to day.
 
Yea he was playing really well then got injured. Id have to guess he rushed back and isnt 100%. He was playing really poorly since his return to the lineup. But isnt he like 20 years old? I think hell be fine in the long run.

That and he was paired with Durzi having to cover for him on top of getting the hardest matchups while everyone was injured.
 
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Can't bring in anyone to score if you want young guys to play. You have to specifically open up spots for them, not wait for them to replace an NHL contract in-season. Off to a bad start re-signing Lizotte.
 
Can't bring in anyone to score if you want young guys to play. You have to specifically open up spots for them, not wait for them to replace an NHL contract in-season. Off to a bad start re-signing Lizotte.
Lizotte isn't blocking a prospect from coming in and getting a scoring role.
 
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