Speculation: LA Kings News, Rumors, Roster Thread part VII

[MBH]

The Habs would not have even made the playoffs in a normal season that year, so I don't think they are a good example to use.

OK - the other three teams.
Defense wins championships.
there's a reason why you paid Danault so much for 5 goals in 53 games and then 1 goal in 22 playoff games.

 

[crassbonanza]

OK - the other three teams.
Defense wins championships.
there's a reason why you paid Danault so much for 5 goals in 53 games and then 1 goal in 22 playoff games.

The Islanders are the only team that really applies to from the 4 finalists last year. The Lightning have high end offensive skill in Kucherov, Stamkos and Point. The Knights had Stone and Paccioretti over a PPG last year. It's not just defense that wins championships, you need to score as well.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I don't give a f*** about CF%.
It's just a metric that helps you confirm what you're seeing with your eyes. It can help you find diamonds in the rough, or silver linings in players that might otherwise not have stats that stand out.
The issue with Kopitar is that his production has gone south.
His P/60 is at 1.6.
His high water mark for the last 1.77 or something.

His GA/60 is 2.78 - 3rd worst in his career.
His GF/60 is 2.19 - 2nd worst in his career.
His GF% is the second worst of his career at 44.09 despite his good corsi numbers.

The only regulars with worse GF% on the team are Byfield, Kempe and Kupari.
All the other regulars are over 50.9GF%

*gets angry and picks fight over use of CF%*
*goes on to agree with literally everything else after CF%*

 

[MBH]

*gets angry and picks fight over use of CF%*
*goes on to agree with literally everything else after CF%*

lol.
Not angry. I just don't care about CF as a standalone stat.
Kopitar reminds me a bit of Pavel Datsyuk on his last legs.
The 5 on 5 scoring disappeared. He lived collecting apples on the powerplay.
He still did lots of things well, but you knew it was ending soon.

Truth is, though, Kopitar still probably should be the #1 C and #1 PPc.
Danaults the only other guy with a claim.

 

[crassbonanza]

Kopitar reminds me a bit of Pavel Datsyuk on his last legs.
The 5 on 5 scoring disappeared. He lived collecting apples on the powerplay.
He still did lots of things well, but you knew it was ending soon.

Truth is, though, Kopitar still probably should be the #1 C and #1 PPc.
Danaults the only other guy with a claim.

I don't think Danault should be the 1C on the powerplay. You are using P/60 to note Kopitar's declining production(not that I am disagreeing), but Danault has a P/60 on the powerplay of 1.18, over the past 3 seasons combined it is 1.49. I think that Kopitar should be utilized more offensively and ease his load defensively, I do believe that can extend his production hopefully through the contract. Make him the 2C by ES TOI and deploy him where he can exploit 2nd/3rd line matchups, but keep him 1C on the powerplay until someone better comes along.

 

[MBH]

I don't think Danault should be the 1C on the powerplay. You are using P/60 to note Kopitar's declining production(not that I am disagreeing), but Danault has a P/60 on the powerplay of 1.18, over the past 3 seasons combined it is 1.49. I think that Kopitar should be utilized more offensively and ease his load defensively, I do believe that can extend his production hopefully through the contract. Make him the 2C by ES TOI and deploy him where he can exploit 2nd/3rd line matchups, but keep him 1C on the powerplay until someone better comes along.

I'm not sure Kopitar should be 2c at 5 on 5.
But in general, I agree.
Right now Kopitar is out there 14:36 and Danault 13:20.
I'd take 36 seconds off and give it to Danault, basically evening them up.

Kopitar still belongs as the #1C on the PP. Nobody else has proved much else.

The major change I'd make to the PP is Kaliyev for Iafallo

 

[lumbergh]

I don't give a f*** about CF%.
It's just a metric that helps you confirm what you're seeing with your eyes. It can help you find diamonds in the rough, or silver linings in players that might otherwise not have stats that stand out.
The issue with Kopitar is that his production has gone south.
His P/60 is at 1.6.
His high water mark for the last 1.77 or something.

His GA/60 is 2.78 - 3rd worst in his career.
His GF/60 is 2.19 - 2nd worst in his career.
His GF% is the second worst of his career at 44.09 despite his good corsi numbers.

The only regulars with worse GF% on the team are Byfield, Kempe and Kupari.
All the other regulars are over 50.9GF%

I absolutely agree with you about Corsi as a standalone stat. It's just not very useful.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

lol.
Not angry. I just don't care about CF as a standalone stat.
Kopitar reminds me a bit of Pavel Datsyuk on his last legs.
The 5 on 5 scoring disappeared. He lived collecting apples on the powerplay.
He still did lots of things well, but you knew it was ending soon.

Truth is, though, Kopitar still probably should be the #1 C and #1 PPc.
Danaults the only other guy with a claim.

I was actually going to ask how Zetterberg looked towards the end, too.

I tend to agree that Kopitar should still be in those roles--they should just be massively reduced. he shouldn't be running away with all situations icetime. We got a specialist in Danault for the defensive roles and creative youth for the offensive roles--if PP2 was at least starting some of the time instead of PP1 attempting to eat all 2 minutes I think that alone might even it out, along with stopping double- and triple-shifting him in the last 10 minutes of games and OTs.

TM is still playing Kopitar like it's 2014.

I absolutely agree with you about Corsi as a standalone stat. It's just not very useful.

That's fine because I agree with that as well--you'll notice it was definitely not used in a standalone manner, it was combined in an illustration that EVERYTHING has fallen off, it's not like he's still driving play and just having bad luck--his typically legendary possession has gone from team-best and near league best to team-near-worst (worst among regular Cs) which makes that illustration of his fading defense that much more stark.

 

[King'sPawn]

Oh, I wasn't trying to say anything, just giving him a list of guys that meet his criteria, which is still pretty substantial. I wasn't dumping on Kaliyev either, he has definitely shown a lot of promise so far this season.

Sorry if I wasn't clear. I assumed you were responding to someone else.

 

[crassbonanza]

I'm not sure Kopitar should be 2c at 5 on 5.
But in general, I agree.
Right now Kopitar is out there 14:36 and Danault 13:20.
I'd take 36 seconds off and give it to Danault, basically evening them up.

Kopitar still belongs as the #1C on the PP. Nobody else has proved much else.

The major change I'd make to the PP is Kaliyev for Iafallo

I think switching Kopitar's ozone/dzone deployment with Danault would do a lot, even if you keep similar TOI to now. I mentioned it earlier, but Danault has never had to carry huge minutes, so the coaching staff/Blake may be hesitant to increase his TOI much. The biggest issue though is that Kopitar has carried way too much of a load throughout his career. Between heavy regular season minutes, a few years of grueling playoff runs and his work with Team Slovenia; Kopitar has spent so much time carrying the team that it is no wonder he is wearing down now.

I fully agree with you about Kaliyev/Iafallo though.

 

[crassbonanza]

it's not like he's still driving play and just having bad luck

Not that I am a huge fan of the stat(which I've argued on here before I believe), but Kopitar does have a.964 PDO, which is the lowest in the league among skaters with 1000+ minutes. That does say that a little bit of luck is involved. He has a negative HDCA/60 this season while having the lowest ozone start percentage on the team, so he is suppressing things somewhat, but his deployment is too much for him to overcome anymore.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Not that I am a huge fan of the stat(which I've argued on here before I believe), but Kopitar does have a.964 PDO, which is the lowest in the league among skaters with 1000+ minutes. That does say that a little bit of luck is involved. He has a negative HDCA/60 this season while having the lowest ozone start percentage on the team, so he is suppressing things somewhat, but his deployment is too much for him to overcome anymore.

Wait.

You were the one that was saying PDO ISN'T a luck stat but rather a performance stat, correct?

 

[crassbonanza]

Wait.

You were the one that was saying PDO ISN'T a luck stat but rather a performance stat, correct?

Haha yes, which is why I mentioned that in my post. I do think it is predominantly a performance stat still(and not all that useful to be honest), just providing that little bit of context.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Haha yes, which is why I mentioned that in my post. I do think it is predominantly a performance stat still, just providing that little bit of context.

Haha just making sure I had the right person.

I feel it's both so not fully disagreeing with you here--but I will say, much like Karlsson's YEARS in a row of his on ice save % being significantly lower than the team, it's visible what Kopitar is doing differently that's sinking that part of it, imo. Kings goalies can't buy a big save this year either though, so the massive icetime, his performance, and goalie performance is all intertwined.

 

[cyclones22]

Kopitar is partially to blame for his high ice time. You watch the next game and pay attention. He will be carrying the puck and the rest of his line will go for the change. Instead of dumping it in so he can also change, he will carry it into the zone and take it in deep. If he loses the puck and a rush goes the other way, he can't change at that point he has to try and help the defense and chase the puck carrier down. Next thing you know he's out there for like a minute and a half or more and he's gassing. This happens a couple of times at least a game.

 

[Mats26]

Montreal Canadiens just made the finals on Danault, Weber and Price.
The cup winners won the cup with a 1-0 game. They gave up 8 goals in 4 games.
They gave up 11 goals in 7 games in the conference final.
The GA of the four finalists:
Tampa - 1.93
Montreal - 2.39
Vegas - 2.37
Delete

 

[Mats26]

Montreal Canadiens just made the finals on Danault, Weber and Price.
The cup winners won the cup with a 1-0 game. They gave up 8 goals in 4 games.
They gave up 11 goals in 7 games in the conference final.
The GA of the four finalists:
Tampa - 1.93
Montreal - 2.39
Vegas - 2.37
NYI - 2.66

 

[Mats26]

Montreal Canadiens just made the finals on Danault, Weber and Price.
The cup winners won the cup with a 1-0 game. They gave up 8 goals in 4 games.
They gave up 11 goals in 7 games in the conference final.
The GA of the four finalists:
Tampa - 1.93
Montreal - 2.39
Vegas - 2.37
NYI - 2.66

3 of those teams are not in the playoffs this year and one Tampa is a power house offensively and are in. You made my point.

 

[kingsfan]

No?

Players drafted in the 2019 draft or later scoring at >=.33 pts/gm:

Jack Hughes (NJ)
Kaapo Kakko (NYR)
Kirby Dach (CHI)
Bowen Byram (COL)
Moritz Seider (DET)
Dylan Cozens (BUF)
Trevor Zegras (ANA)
Matthew Boldy (MIN)
Cole Caufield (MON)
Alex Newhook (COL)
Peyton Krebs (BUF)
Ville Heinola (WPG)
Philip Tomasino (NSH)
Nils Hoglander (VAN)
Adam Beckman (MIN)
Jordan Spence (LAK)
Alexis Lafreniere (NYR)
Tim Stutzle (OTT)
Lucas Raymond (DET)
Jamie Drysdale (ANA)
Jack Quinn (BUF)
Cole Perfetti (WPG)
Anton Lundell (FLA)
Seth Jarvis (CAR)
Dawson Mercer (NJ)
Matty Beniers (SEA)
Mason McTavish (ANA)
William Eklund (SJ)
Cole Sillinger (CBJ)
JJ Moser (ARI)

I don't expect Kaliyev to outproduce all these players. But there is a good number of players in Kaliyev's age range who are producing at his clip or better. So to say most teams don't have it, when I'm counting 20 teams from the list above... that's over half the league. I just don't think it jives with your assessment. Granted, this list may be whittled down a bit due to sample size (for example, some have 1 point in 3 games).

What it boils down to is there are some on more successful teams. Look at Anton Lundell on the Florida Panthers, Seth Jarvis on the Carolina Hurricanes, Bowen Byram and Alex Newhook on Colorado.

That's a cute list. How about trying one with players who have played more than say half a season? McTavish for example has nine games and his efforts landed him back in the OHL. PPG is relevant only with a minimum number of games played for a reason.

Even a cherry picked list has him in the top 30 of the entire league so no, I'm not concerned.

 

[King'sPawn]

That's a cute list. How about trying one with players who have played more than say half a season? McTavish for example has nine games and his efforts landed him back in the OHL. PPG is relevant only with a minimum number of games played for a reason.

Even a cherry picked list has him in the top 30 of the entire league so no, I'm not concerned.

I was disputing your comment about not many teams have a player in Kaliyev's position (his age and scoring clip). Crassbonanza provided a more filtered list.

Kaliyev's situation is not unusual. That's the point.

 

[MBH]

3 of those teams are not in the playoffs this year and one Tampa is a power house offensively and are in. You made my point.

.
Right.

Every time someone says "The league is trending toward this" and we didn't change fast enough, I just laugh.
By the time everyone realizes the league has trended toward something, the trend has reversed itself.

No point in getting all worked up about the latest fad.

 

[MBH]

I think switching Kopitar's ozone/dzone deployment with Danault would do a lot, even if you keep similar TOI to now. I mentioned it earlier, but Danault has never had to carry huge minutes, so the coaching staff/Blake may be hesitant to increase his TOI much. The biggest issue though is that Kopitar has carried way too much of a load throughout his career. Between heavy regular season minutes, a few years of grueling playoff runs and his work with Team Slovenia; Kopitar has spent so much time carrying the team that it is no wonder he is wearing down now.

I fully agree with you about Kaliyev/Iafallo though.

I think you have to be careful about putting too much on Danault's plate, though, too.
He's pretty good at his current workload.
I wouldn't add a whole lot more to it.

It's kind of weird that LA could be going into the playoffs with Lizotte as 3C

 

[kilowatt]

I think you have to be careful about putting too much on Danault's plate, though, too.
He's pretty good at his current workload.
I wouldn't add a whole lot more to it.

It's kind of weird that LA could be going into the playoffs with Lizotte as 3C

…and basically no 4C

 

[KingsFan7824]

I think Blake and company mis read where the league is going and it might cost him and his buddies their jobs. This ain't a 3-2 league no more, we needed to draft top end skill and sign or trade for character. Now we are faced with an uphill battle to acquire talent while trying to salvage the prospects, doing so in a 1-3-1 formation. I really hope the kids take a major step next season because there will be more pressure on them to produce and be able to contribute for another playoff run.

I'm almost sure that somewhere along the way, following the trend was considered a bad thing. Although sometime later on, not following the trend was the bad thing. I guess, as usual, it depends on whether or not you win. If you do, whatever you did was ultimately the right thing to do. Or at least, whatever you did didn't set the franchise back. If you don't win, whatever you did was wrong, or just not enough.

Salvage prospects. Kaliyev isn't 21 until June. Byfield turns 20 in August. We're barely into salvage territory with the Vilardi class.

I know the early 20's are supposed to be the big offensive seasons, and almost everything that's happened with the young guys this year has been on the disappointing side, but they're not lost at sea.

Kopitar is partially to blame for his high ice time. You watch the next game and pay attention. He will be carrying the puck and the rest of his line will go for the change. Instead of dumping it in so he can also change, he will carry it into the zone and take it in deep. If he loses the puck and a rush goes the other way, he can't change at that point he has to try and help the defense and chase the puck carrier down. Next thing you know he's out there for like a minute and a half or more and he's gassing. This happens a couple of times at least a game.

There had to be a time when Kopitar doesn't make a safe enough play would've been a hot take.

You'd think, since being taught boring cautious hockey ever since Crawford got fired, Kopitar would automatically dump the puck in at this point. Maybe dementia set in already in his advanced age. He doesn't know where he is. Doesn't know who he is.

 

[Mats26]

.
Right.

Every time someone says "The league is trending toward this" and we didn't change fast enough, I just laugh.
By the time everyone realizes the league has trended toward something, the trend has reversed itself.

No point in getting all worked up about the latest fad.

I'm almost sure that somewhere along the way, following the trend was considered a bad thing. Although sometime later on, not following the trend was the bad thing. I guess, as usual, it depends on whether or not you win. If you do, whatever you did was ultimately the right thing to do. Or at least, whatever you did didn't set the franchise back. If you don't win, whatever you did was wrong, or just not enough.

Salvage prospects. Kaliyev isn't 21 until June. Byfield turns 20 in August. We're barely into salvage territory with the Vilardi class.

I know the early 20's are supposed to be the big offensive seasons, and almost everything that's happened with the young guys this year has been on the disappointing side, but they're not lost at sea.



There had to be a time when Kopitar doesn't make a safe enough play would've been a hot take.

You'd think, since being taught boring cautious hockey ever since Crawford got fired, Kopitar would automatically dump the puck in at this point. Maybe dementia set in already in his advanced age. He doesn't know where he is. Doesn't know who he is.

When Sutter coaches a team with 2 x 100+pts players and 30 and 40 goal scorers you know the trend is going towards offense. Doesn't mean you forget how to play defense, they can win 3-2 like they showed against us but to have those offensive weapons makes you a threat and a much easier ticket to make the playoffs.

The league is going towards younger, faster more skilled forwards. Anthony Duclair for example is a 30 goal scorer, some kids just need to be put in a position to succeed. There is no reason why we force prospects to play 4th line minutes and then complain about their production or simply bench them in big games.

If they can't develop a decent few players out of our prospect pool it will be a league wide embarrassment. I expect them to show and possibly hit their potential in the next few years, so well see how they turn out.